Charting Greg Oden's Touches
by Ben Golliver on Oct 28, 2009 3:26 PM PDT
in News
Email
PrintThere's been a bunch of talk today about Greg Oden's offense, or lack thereof, in last night's game against the Houston Rockets.
My first inclination was to credit Chuck Hayes, who is known for doing a great job of playing bigger than his size, getting under bigger posts and driving them from the basket. Indeed, most of Oden's turnovers last night occurred away from the basket, as he was pushed 8+ feet from the hoop and moving with less comfort or out on the perimeter, drawing body control fouls while setting screens.
"I tried to make it tough on him and didn't let him get position down in the paint. I tried to keep him off the offensive rebounds for easy put backs, but he still did a great job on the defensive end altering shots," Hayes said afterwards.
...
Throughout the game, it appeared Oden rushed his shot. Did it look that way to the Rockets?
"Maybe. Maybe. There were times where he probably thought he did," Hayes explained. "I don't know if he was frustrated or not, because when he did get the ball I felt he was always out of position to score. It looks like he's in shape. I'll give him that."
Dwight Jaynes tweeted this morning that he believed the Blazers were not serious about getting Oden the ball. Dwight argued that Oden's lack of offensive production wasn't simply a matter of not obtaining good post position, that his teammates simply aren't checking for him on offense.
So I decided to chart every offensive possession that Greg Oden participated in last night. The results confirmed that Hayes did an excellent job of minimizing Oden's offensive impact but confirmed Dwight's assertion as well. The numbers are pretty astonishing.
Oden participated in 53 offensive possessions last night, a possession defined here as a shot attempt or turnover.
Oden -- Touches By Quarter
- 1st quarter: 5 touches / 17 possessions / 8:59 playing time
- 2nd quarter: 1 touch / 15 possessions / 7:18 playing time
- 3rd quarter: 2 touches / 10 possessions / 4:55 playing time
- 4th quarter: 2 touches / 11 possessions / 5:09 playing time
- totals: 10 touches / 53 possessions / 26:21 minutes played
Talking with Nate McMillan this afternoon, McMillan praised Oden's positioning and general play against Hayes. This caught me somewhat off-guard. In reviewing the tape, it's clear that Oden fought for position all night. But where was he fighting for position? On many possessions, Oden was on the weakside, often fighting for rebounding position or a spot on the low block before a shot had even gone up.
In the charts below, I have noted Oden's position when each possession ended. Nearly half of the possessions end with Oden on the weakside, a non-factor on offense but regularly drawing a lot of attention on the boards. Many possessions also end with Oden in the high post, either because he was setting a screen for a ball handler or because a shot went up before Oden expected.
As I wrote last night, Blazers coaches and management are surely tickled to death by Oden's 12 rebounds and 5 blocks despite his lack of offense and turnover troubles. Certainly, working Oden into the flow on offense will be a gradual process. But let's put it this way: if last night is any indication, the process is beginning from rock bottom.
Oden set more than 10 screens during last night's contest and didn't receive a single successful pass for his efforts (one errant pass led to a loose ball foul in the second half, otherwise nothing). Setting screens is tough work. Grabbing rebounds is tough work. Running the floor is tough work. It takes a rare mentality to do all of that and rarely touch the ball. It takes an even rarer mentality to possess offensive skills and still possess that selfless mentality.
Last night, Oden proved he was willing and able (even happy) to do the dirty work in lieu of participating in the team's offense. Can that last forever?
Click through for the full charting results.
-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)
Here are the full results. Click here to see a full size chart.
-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)
98 comments
|
10 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
7 turnovers / 10 touches = really not good
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
some turnovers came without a touch. offensive fouls, etc.
by Ben Golliver on Oct 28, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Not too mention that at least one of those 3 in the keys
was squarely TO’s fault after Oden had Hayes sealed literally under the basket and TO held the ball for the full 3 seconds hesitating for the pass.
...resulting in a whistle against Oden, and an unjustly tagged turnover
I was so pissed at Trout on that one… Oden had MASSIVELY awesome position
Blazers win!
There was one where Oden was well positioned in the paint and Aldridge had it high
but did not get it too him….if we get that working wathc out….
Oden had spun the rocket outside, he had a clear lane to the hoop, aldridge had a wide open passing lane and didn’t ffed oden. This is part of the reason why i want to get howard on the floor some, he knows that big man high low game well and understands what feeding oden can do over stretches of time in a game. It was preseason, but howard keyed odens monster 4th in that denver game by getting everybody to keep feeding him. they will come around eventually, but it will take time….
Oden looked good last night, i don’t care what else happened, he shut that game down. Houston came to with in 6 points in a game we were up 20. They put oden in and houston was stopped, bottom line.
"Oh Yeah!" ~ Kool Aid Man
Twice Outlaw did that
The second time Travis just ignored him and shot it. If you look at the time Travis is on the floor you will see a lot less touches for Oden. Outlaw just doesn’t pass and simply lacks the skill to pass into the post.
O.R.
26 turnovers / 53 possessions = also not good
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
Those 53 possessions also only came in the minutes Oden was in the game.
But 26 turnovers in 96 possessions…still not good.
Four
to be exact
Dude, what are you doing, man? Why you gotta be holding a corn dog when I go for a high-five??
have you thought about showing it to Nate?
just as an outsiders perspective?
by GreatOden'sRaven on Oct 28, 2009 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Give him the damn ball!!
....formerly GonzoFan. Now, this has been a message from "The People's Alliance to Continue to Encourage Greg Oden on his Path to Dominance"
by bforsythe on Oct 28, 2009 3:31 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
My thoughts as well
"Goals are good. Plans are better." -Ben.
by Sabonis4Ever on Oct 28, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I got the impression as well...
That the scouting report on Oden says something about poking the ball out of his hands as soon as he gets it. That seemed to happen a LOT.
7 turnovers was really bad
but chuck hayes ripped B Roy when he was going up for that one shot… he’s got some quick hands. I think we need a few more games before we say too much has changed or stayed the same.
by stumpy8100 on Oct 28, 2009 3:32 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
hardwoood proxysm's twitter feed was crappying on oden's offense all night.
his basic understandign was that rockets have no good big men and oden should have killed. I actually think that rockets post defense is some of the best in the league. even though its undersized.
Obvious follow up question
Great post, Ben.
But here’s an obvious follow up question: what percentage of Oden’s minutes last night were played with Blake at the PG vs. Miller at the PG? Was it roughly even or skewed toward Blake? If the latter, maybe the solution is to start Miller, who’s a better passer and slasher.
That is part of it
But, the biggest problem is that the team is never serious about establishing Oden down low. It’s important to establish big guys early on not only because you want to score inside out, but it keeps the Bigs engaged into the game. I saw zero effort from the backcourt nor the play calling in getting GO established down low. Instead, he was used strictly as a high pick and roll guy. Of course he is going to fumble the ball if you go long periods of time not giving him the ball.
The blame should go not only on Blake, but Roy and Mcmillian as well. Only starter that kinda seemed to as least think about looking for GO was Aldridge, and he wasn’t in there for long.
Amen to this post
Too many possessions I saw Oden 20 feet away from the basket, screening for the ball handler rather than on the low blocks. It’s insane that instead of running plays to establish him on the low blocks against 6’6" player, they’d rather use him like Joel.
Then again, I said that this was exactly what was going to happen as soon as they named Blake the starter. Sometimes, it’s so obvious that it’s like shooting fish in the barrel.
Obviously Greg had a weak offensive night, summarized aptly by a PER of 3.1
BUT on the defensive end he had a big impact. For the first time since about college I saw people doing a U-turn to not get swatted again. He lead the league that night in blocks (those would be 9 if he played all minutes) and was second only behind Joel in RP48 (4th in total). And this time LaMarcus and Joel got in foul trouble before Greg for a change, so ALL our big men had trouble there. For an opening night with a bit of nerves, that was a nice performance. Pre-season is different than the regular season, and not all teams are the Kings.
But slowly things happen that they cannot help and the Blazers Fellowship of the Ring begins to break apart
Yes, but
You have to reward your big men for doing the defense work by giving him touches on the offense. While it’s true that Greg had a great game on defense, continuing to not utilize him on offense could also impact his defense as well. Plus, do we really want to utilize Greg this way keep playing 4 on 5 on the offense? He’s big, strong, and has a soft hand. There’s no good reason why we shouldn’t get him involved.
True
Problem is coach trusts Roy to make the big plays first, then Aldridge, then Travis, then Rudy, then maybe Blake/Miller, and then maybe Oden. Same with Roy: First he trusts himself, then the other guys. Oden hasn’t established himself as an offensive presence yet, that will take some time and people were fooling themselves if they thought that would click from day one.
Eventually he can and will have some big offensive nights, since he starts to move well and is a willing and able passer. LaMarcus and him have to get accustomed passing to each other without going over the perimeter the way the Lakers or Celtics or Spurs big men do it. And of course the point guards have to get him the ball, currently Rudy might be the one most looking for cutting big men which shouldn’t be the case. There undoubtedly is work to do.
But slowly things happen that they cannot help and the Blazers Fellowship of the Ring begins to break apart
P.S.: That one play where Miller threw a “lateral” pass to the trailing LaMarcus was brilliant. And he will soon enough do that for Oden too getting him easy points. Along with alley oops to Travis, Rudy, and the others.
But slowly things happen that they cannot help and the Blazers Fellowship of the Ring begins to break apart
Good points
One may also speculate upon the potential of outlet passing to Miller who (as you just illustrated) has the aptitude to convert the fast break into instant points which demoralize the opposing team and shift momentum.
I have no problem with GO's play last night
The Rockets packed it in last night and wouldn’t let the big guys play. Coach Rick came with a good game plan as you would expect. We have plenty of other players that can score. GO brought it. He played with a lot of energy.
by toolman on Oct 28, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Exactly!
"I'm a man, but I can change.....if I have to......I guess." - Red Green
by antediluvian on Oct 28, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
We didn't really establish any of our posts...
After LA’s spurt at the start of the game, we didn’t go inside at all. I think this was a product of the perimeter players having a lot of easy shots available to them, and lazy play in the 4th, before it became Brandon time. I’m not surprised Oden wasn’t used much in such a free-wheeling, chaotic game, especially given the fact that he was a bit out of sync and didn’t call for the ball at all.
Here’s the question. Against better teams, when baskets are harder to come by, will we learn to establish Oden?
by DC Blazer on Oct 28, 2009 3:47 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It's astonishing that someone FINALLY considered the situation
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
Does he need to score to be effective?
That’s really the question.
When he came out of high school, the general review was that he had some offensive prowess but that defensively is where he would really shine. In fact, Chad Ford said that straight out of high school, before the eligibility rule, that Oden would have been one of the Top 5 defensive centers in the league immediately.
Look I get it that if Oden can put up 12 boards and 5 blocks WITH 15-20 points, then we’re going to kick some major butt. But we have plenty of scoring on this team. What we really need from Greg (and Joel) is a guy that will bang, rebound, and block shots. Greg deifintely did that last night (he actually had 7 blocks but got robbed on 2, one was a wrongly-called goaltend). His offensive game will come around, but if he can play the type of defense he did last night, this team is going to be fine.
by rip_city_swagger on Oct 28, 2009 3:55 PM PDT reply actions
Of Course he needs to score to have maximum effect
How close would last nights game have been if Oden scored say 14 pts. Our offense is terribly unbalanced. I just cannot understand why we don’t play inside out as a RULE instead of an exception. We have 2 bigs that can get it done in the paint and the ball goes in there almost by accident. I hope to God Oden doesn’t average less shot attempts than Outlaw this season or we are in for a short short playoff run yet again!
O.R.
Good points,
but I don’t agree that the Blazers possess that many offensive options in the paint.
Awesome stuff. I love you, Ben.
Love it. Great breakdown. Where else do we see this type of fine-grained analysis? If you did something like this regularly, I would be in heaven. Seriously. This is just awesome… there’s not enough of it anywhere. You’ve almost inspired me to start charting something.
I’m not 100% sure about the conclusions you are drawing or not drawing from this (I’d prefer if you either made a strong argument or kept the analysis 100% about the pattern).
Anyway, here’s my conclusion: why not design a play where Oden get’s a high percentage shot. Set a serious of screens for him. Design a back-screen lob play. Something. Something to get him involved in the game. It does not have to be a staple of the offense. Just run a set to get the big guy a basket. He deserves it and it would help his confidence. Do it, Nate. Do it!!!!
by PoliSam on Oct 28, 2009 3:55 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
ben - this is great!
KP2 is a good influence on you (and vice versa, I am sure). – Elgin
Without you out there, we're nowhere here
Can we wait a week or two
before we start posting up where players rank in the league based on stats? Oden’s 3.41 PER is totally irrelevant in one game, come talk to me after a month, then you can start peeing your pants, people. I’m just happy that, if there is a night where Aldridge, Roy and Oden are a little off, we have that second unit that can step in and keep us in a game or extend a lead.
This goes to prove what I've been telling anyone and everyone who will listen
Thank you Ben. I owe you a beer, probably one of the ones I’m about to win with this proof. But I’ll make it a biggun for ya lol
Blazers win!
careful, x man, if you give Ben another beer he might pee in his pants some more
To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. -- Thomas Paine, US patriot & political philosopher (1737 - 1809)
It was a solid first night.
The offense will come in time, it will have to. For the Blazers to move to the next level they have to be able to establish the ball inside and Oden is the best option to do that. However, they have enough offense to compete with most teams without doing that and I think it was a smart move on Nate’s part to get Greg comfortable on the court again and not put too much pressure on him on both ends of the floor immediately. Let him focus on defense for now and add offense in the flow of the game.
However, on the defensive end he was incredible – the rebounding and the blocks were great but the number of possessions he affected without gathering a stat for it was crazy! He dominated the defensive end when in the game and really inspired the other guys to help. Stayed out of foul trouble until the second half as well when he picked up back to back cheap fouls.
All in all, a solid first night and something to build on!
Nate loves isolation.
Why not work a play where you isolate Oden in the low post. Like the Lakers used to do with with Jabaar?
Of the total of 3 times that they worked the ball to Oden in the first quarter he was in traffic twice. Two of those turnovers were because other defenders besides Hayes were following cutters by Oden and took a stab at the ball.
It’s not that complicated if you want to develop him offensively.
I'm Happy!
12 boards and 5 blocks? I’d say after last season and this being the first game, there’s not a whole lot to complain about. It has been drilled into our fan-skulls this pre-season by the coaching staff that Oden’s role will be a defensive one. So, why are we expecting him to score? Leave that up to our new multi-millionaires.
Start Miller
I'm uncomfortable with this kind of analysis after just one game.
ignacio
by ignacio on Oct 28, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Understandable.
However, one could speculate that some of this conversation (at least for me) pertains to the progress Oden has made over the course of the summer, his performance in preseason, and the subsequent “conversation in the jet” article about Roy being the teams primary offensive option. Roy filling this role makes sense, it’s good, but the article (no link) betrayed an unsettling whisper of creative ossification and a peculiar self aggrandizing stubbornness with regard to the offensive strategy. The Blake/ Roy half court game may be the perfect antidote for some teams, but for others (such as the Rockets) it may not be effective. I don’t really know what I’m talking about, but…Post!
I guess my biggest concern is that we're all basing this
on a very small sample size…..1 game. And that 1 game was against a team that plays with an "abnormal" center……6’6" with exceptionally quick hands and good positioning. This is not the type of situation that Oden will find himself in a lot (against a Hayes-like center).
In addition, Oden looked pretty nervous when he got the ball….so I guess it doesn’t seem like a huge problem to me that he didn’t get many touches last night. If we’re still talking about this a month from now, then it’s a problem.
Oden’s defense and rebounding have made a significant leap from last year to this year. But his offensive skills start at a much lower level, and may progress at a slower speed. And I’m good with that.
The Blazers don’t need Oden to be an offensive force to the extent that they need his strong defense and rebounding. What he brings to the table offensively is the frosting on the cake, the cherry on the banana split, it’s whatever food-related cliché you want it to be, but it is not the main course.
Oden’s offense will come around…and the team will actively integrate him. But let’s give it just a wee bit of time. We seem awfully impatient here at BEdge.
"I'm a man, but I can change.....if I have to......I guess." - Red Green
by antediluvian on Oct 28, 2009 4:48 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree...
That Hayes is a little tricky, and that Houston knew they had to scrap in the paint to have a chance.
But I have a hard time believing that any top flight center would have that much difficulty with Chuck Hayes. He is an NBA player, but lets not act like this guy is some all-NBA defensive stalwart. ITS CHUCK HAYES.
There seem to be a lot of Oden apologists looking to make Hayes into a much more formidable opponent than he really is.
That said, Oden will be fine. He was great on the boards and on D last night.
Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge
Chuck Hayes is a defensive stalwart
He really wouldn’t be in the NBA if he wasn’t. The guy has no offensive game, he is a defensive specialist.
I'd say he IS worthy of an all-NBA defensive stalwart
I’d even go as far and say he’s a much better one on one post defender than the DPOY, Dwight Howard. Hayes plays real defense, has a super low center of gravity and negates his shortness since no one can easily get good position on him (and Oden gets position on anyone), quick strong hands, and plays smart.
He is a very good big man defender who just has no offensive game.
Mortimer
Short is not equal to vulnerable on defense
Height is far less important than strength and quickness when defending the post. Post offense requires going around the defender for layups and dunks, or going over defenders with various jump hooks/J’s, etc.
The Rockets played their game plan very well, but the Blazers blew it up by taking what the Rockets gave and killing them with it. The Blazers simply shot over the top – and did it well. When the Rockets tried to close on outside shooters, our wings went around. Webster and Outlaw carried the offense when the Rockets hoped that would kill the Blazers.
The Blazer size advantage did manifest itself very clearly, however. Offensive rebounding and defense clearly favored the tall guys in white.
This game was mildy respectable in the scoring column (9 point losses are pretty bad, actually) only because of 26 turnovers. The vast majority of those turnovers are simple adjustments (holding screens a tad longer; not being lazy on the face up, etc).
by blacknoiseNW on Oct 28, 2009 5:12 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Clarifying my own point
is that the Rockets are ideally suited for one-on-one post defense. Strong and quick, they are not easy to “go around”. You have to get them moving and burn them on weakside cuts off screens, pick and rolls, or simply punish them by going over the top. The Blazers were very effective at going over the top.
I remember one play where Roy ran a little pick and roll with Prz, bounced the ball to Prz moving toward the bucket, but two Rockets were there squeezing Prz as soon as he caught it – resulting in a turnover. Throw the ball high.
by blacknoiseNW on Oct 28, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Gregory Wayne Oden
Ill say this about Oden’s production last night.
He had some bad turnovers, and certainly didnt make the most of the opportunities he had in the post. The shots he took werent that bad, but most of the problems came before there was an opportunity for a shot. He rushed things and didnt look like he fully understood that he could have slowy backed Hayes down under the basket and dunked instead of trying to pull of some fancy spin move. He also makes the baby hook shot look much more difficult that it should be over a 6’7 power forward. If Greg would have just simply backed down Hayes everytime, he would have scored more or forced a double team every time.
The things mentioned above are Greg’s fault. As for the team, there doesnt seem to be any progress in feeding Greg the ball in position to score. Rudy did it at times last year, and occasionaly Blake as well, but last night I counted 3-4 times where Greg had his man sealed and a simple entry pass would have netted an easy dunk. Outlaw missed a couple and looked like he just stared at Greg wide open a few times (which is understandable because Trav is a lousy passer). But Roy, Martell, and Lamarcus all missed him a few times as well.
Im sure things will get better for Greg, I just hope the team tries to not just feed him the ball more, but feed him when he is in the best position to dominate. Greg should have had 12-14 pts last night.
But hey. A win is a win,
Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge
Derftron:
Im sure things will get better for Greg, I just hope the team tries to not just feed him the ball more, but feed him when he is in the best position to dominate. Greg should have had 12-14 pts last night.
A great distinction
Juwan Howard
If Juwan Howard was in the game, I am willing to be that Greg gets a few balls for easy layups & dunks. From what I saw with my own two eyes, Greg wasn’t the only person being nervous about receiving the ball. The passer was just as nervous, pump faking it in a few times but never pulling the trigger. When Greg had position, a simple lob would have been suffice, especially with a 6-6 defender on him. Doesn’t have to be a perfect strike.
Ben, do you remember the deer in the headlight comments?
Man, they saved him out there. He was petrified. You’re basically outing him by saying this over and over. He was scared to screw up on offense. He didn’t WANT the ball. Oden’s teammates will force it on him eventually, but last night, they were helping him by not giving him the ball.
Oden said he was scared. Others said the same thing. Let’s consider the most likely scenario before we start saying Nate and the rest of the Blazers don’t want to give Oden the ball, portray them as selfish. I don’t understand how in one game, everything we know about this team, its character and our coach gets thrown out the window because one player has a STRANGE night.
So far, this season/pre-season, last night was the aberration. Chart that!
That said, I love the effort and the excellent talk. While I think you’re way off here, how you’re saying this is so much better than you’d find other places.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
by hobobob on Oct 28, 2009 5:41 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
One more thing,
everything we know about Nate and the Blazers in general says they wanna win and that they don’t care about sharing the ball. When they think it’s best to give Oden the ball, I can’t imagine they’ll shy away from it. Furthermore, I think they’ll be quick to realize and try to get him the ball. If we should worry about anything, it should be forcing it on him before he’s ready and sinking his confidence; you tune a horse up with a win and all.
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
by hobobob on Oct 28, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's kinda of confusing really
because in the past Nate has said LA needs to go down low & score more down low. But now that he’s gotten a low post scorer, he doesn’t give GO the ball. It’s preaching one thing and showing another. Like when he said “our first option is NOT to switch” on P&R but proof shows otherwise.
It isn't a single game
It is a pattern from last season that manifested itself again with the coaching and game flow. We’ve got to be able to resolve it with some decent in-game coaching, not just permanently taking the ball out of his hands for the rest of the game. It happened last year and it happened again this game. If anything, the preseason was the aberration over the pattern of the last part of the regular season, playoffs and this first game.
You said it
The spacing, sets, and delivery of the ball need to be addressed in a big way when talking about GO.
O.R.
uggh.
O-live commentators spew nothing but garbage. Pure drivel.
"B-Roy is the best shooting guard I have played against"
-Ron Artest
Read _PTB_'s signature
and then reconsider your assessment premthegrem. Pearls before swine, people, pearls before swine.
(I am not at all serious.)
For the joke to work,
here is the signature;
Without irritating grains of sand, oysters would never make pearls.
No offense PTB Laughing with, not at.
For me it all goes back to Centers win Championships
Trade players for picks and draft Cole Aldrich 2010
Possessions Dwindled in Second Half.
Nice stuff, Ben. Very appreciated. I plan to watch the game again tonight.
One thing not noted yet in the piece or by posters is that the possessions dwindled significantly the second half:
1st Q = 17
2nd Q = 16
3rd Q = 10
4th Q = 11
I’m not sure if or how this is related to Oden or his results. Probably not. But, it, too, needs to be looked at and analyzed. Why did the game in the second half slow down to less than 2/3 the pace of the first half? Less Miller? More Nate? Was Houston responsible? Were the players on both teams tired? Were there that different of lineups? Anyone?
I don’t know yet, but I’m not blaming Greg for this data.
"I won't back down." -- Tom Petty
"History is important. If you don't know history it is as if you were born yesterday. And, if you were born yesterday, anybody up there in a position of power can tell you anything, and you have no way of checking up on it." -- Howard Zinn
Need to watch the details
The pace isn’t reflected in those numbers those are the number of possessions while Greg was in the game. Oden had less time in the second half of the game then the first so less possessions
"Knowledge will get you from A to B. Creativity will get you anywhere." Einstein
by Garden of ODEN on Oct 28, 2009 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks Ben for the in depth analysis
This type of factual break down is sorely missing these days. To look on the bright side, without Oden we would have lost this game badly. Even the last 2 minutes he basically sealed the game with the block, rebounds, and putback.
O.R.
It's early, but the trend line isn't going in the right direction.
Three things:
(1) The Blazers need to shift their mentality to get Greg involved early, as they do with LMA.
(2) GO needs to keep the damn ball HIGH!
(3) Blazers wings need to learn to be patient and make multiple entry and re-entry passes to the big.
(1) If you look at the chart above, you’ll see that Nate succeeded in one of his primary objectives, as he has stated for at least a year now: get LMA his touches early (4 times out of the first 5 possessions). Why? Because most guys need early hoops to bolster their confidence (Roy doesn’t seem to). Also, by going inside early, you help spread the floor, and make it easier on the wings. Also, it can result in early fouls, giving everybody a big advantage and reward for aggressive play. I agree with Nate, in that starting the game getting your post playerS touches is important.
But why doesn’t this mindset result in a dictum by Nate to get Greg involved offensively early in the game? Perhaps, as another poster said, Nate is working Greg into the O gradually. I hope so, we’ll see.
(2) The second point is that Greg needs to learn to keep the ball high, out of the way of the little guys! This will come with experience – IF he is being taught this. So far, I haven’t seen it… (If I were coach, I’d make Greg hold his hands above his head the entire time he was on the court, for as long as he could hold them up there… Sure, he’d look silly running with both arms high in the air, but it might get the point across… Keep the ball high enough so the little guys CAN’T swipe at it going by!
(3) The thid point is one that other posters have made, namely that the Blazers don’t seem to know how to make good entry passes. They also don’t appear to have been coached to make RE-entry passes. Pass it down low, if nothing there, the big will pass it back out and re-position – but the Blazers, instead of sending it BACK to Greg down low ALWAYS send it around the horn. So now any position the big may have won is useless, because the ball is on the other side of the court. VERY frustrating for a hard working big man.
I go back, as I always do, to that pre-emininent basketball scholar, Larry Bird, who had two terrific low post options in Chief and McHale. When the C’s wanted to go down low, the ball went down low! Bird would stand on the wing, and toy with his defender, who would try to double down. Bird would fake a 3, defender would rush him. Bird would pass to McHale. Defender runs at McHale. Bird re-positions. McHale passes to Bird. (Sometimes LB would then hit the 3), but often you would see Bird make a pass fake (defender to the lane), then bring it back like he would shoot (defender comes back). All the while the big is re-positioning. Eventually, McHale would establish the position he wanted, and Bird would get him the ball.
Again, it’s early, but the mindset of Nate and Brandon appear to be stuck in 2008: get Roy and LMA established. We need to get LMA AND Greg established. Now, we may need to do it a different way, with pick and rolls, or side entry passes instead of from the top of the key, but we need to do learn how to do it.
by Visionary2 on Oct 28, 2009 7:17 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Nice post
They also don’t appear to have been coached to make RE-entry passes. Pass it down low, if nothing there, the big will pass it back out and re-position – but the Blazers, instead of sending it BACK to Greg down low ALWAYS send it around the horn. So now any position the big may have won is useless, because the ball is on the other side of the court. VERY frustrating for a hard working big man.
The only thing I’ll add to this is that it doesn’t have to be a bad thing for Greg that the ball gets swung back around to the weak side. Greg’s strong as an ox and appears to have his agility back; if he flashes across the lane and reposts on the now-strong side, he’ll be able to outquick and outmuscle the majority of 5’s and establish VERY deep post position. Either an entry pass from our SF or a pass to LMA for a quick hi-low will get Greg the ball in prime posterization territory.
"I just sort of know that around the water cooler they talk of reality tv stars, and I strictly drink coffee." -- EvilKaramazov
by BlazersOrBust on Oct 29, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions
breaking down his touches from your chart
first off, it’s hard to tell which one’s were his 4 O rebs, and which were passes to him, but anyway:
1) missed (rushed) 8 foot shot: -, but getting him the ball at this spot is going to be a + more often than not
2) travelling: -, but again, good low post position, this will be a + more often than not
3) turnover: -
4) assist to Miller: +
5) turnover: -
6) Aldridge TO: neutral
7) Webster Dunk: +
8) Webster Layup: +
9) Missed hook: -
10) Putback Dunk: +
So, out of 10 touches, we have 4 positives results, 5 negative results, and 1 n/a Considering he was AWFUL on offense last night, and clearly (to me) looked way over-anxious, the team still had a .444 positive result when he got the ball. Even his 2 misses and 2 turnovers were plays where you LIKED the fact that he got the ball where he did – two deep shots and 3 deep post position turnovers. Based on what we have seen, over a bigger sample size, 3 of those 5 touches are going to result in either a basket or a foul. I’ll take that. Get the guy the ball.
Also, I feel like a broken record on this, but if you want to maximize Greg’s offense, you aren’t going to do it posting him up — get him the ball when he’s in motion on the way to the basket. Pick and Rolls, drive and dumps, etc. throwing the ball into him and letting him work in the post is fine a couple times a game, but we should be calling a lot more plays putting him in motion to receive the ball.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Oct 28, 2009 7:23 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Very good post
Also, I feel like a broken record on this, but if you want to maximize Greg’s offense, you aren’t going to do it posting him up — get him the ball when he’s in motion on the way to the basket. Pick and Rolls, drive and dumps, etc. throwing the ball into him and letting him work in the post is fine a couple times a game, but we should be calling a lot more plays putting him in motion to receive the ball.
I completely agree with this idea, but I’d cast the blame at the feet of his teammates more than at the feet of the coaching staff. Blake/Roy/LMA played the majority of last season with Joel as the starting 5, and Martell didn’t play last year at all. NONE of those guys are used to playing with an explosive big man with good hands who’s a threat to throw down or get fouled anytime he catches it heading to the rim. Greg is rolling hard to the hoop after he’s setting screens…we just don’t appear to be looking for him.
"I just sort of know that around the water cooler they talk of reality tv stars, and I strictly drink coffee." -- EvilKaramazov
by BlazersOrBust on Oct 29, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Then the coaches need to be drilling it into their heads
and it should have started a month ago, so we should be seeing it happen at least occasionally.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
i like the keep the ball high
the touches, shots stats arent entirely fair. i think of odens 1 for 3 they are counting the offensive rebound dunk at the end of the game. he created and finished that one entirely him self. also touches when he is on the other side of the court or even near the 3 point line is a touch but there is no way he is taking a shot there at this point in time so it was just a pass (better than sitting on the bench) slightly better than not being passed too, but there was not ever an intention for him to score.
i used to be a big shaq fan and even the big fellow wasnt very effective 8+ feet out. if shaq had a foot in the circle he made it 100%, one foot in the paint + most of the time, no feet in he wasnt so great. i think for now its going to be similiar for greg. keep it 0-6 feet in and give him the ball.
what does this have to do with Oden?
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
by douglast on Oct 28, 2009 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Once again
we don’t have him and we won’t for the foreseeable future, so who cares? You may as well be posting Chris Paul’s line from last night too.
"I just sort of know that around the water cooler they talk of reality tv stars, and I strictly drink coffee." -- EvilKaramazov
by BlazersOrBust on Oct 29, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you Ben this is excellent
Well, the post is excellent. The lack of offensive touches for GO is not a recipe for success. Portland needs to establish the big man as an offensive threat. It would really open up the game for shooters like Martell, Blake and Rudy, and Oden has shown an ability to pass the ball well, and I’d love to see flash cuts from LMA (if a big on big double), Roy and TO.
I hate Comcast.
Card carrying member of Team Bayless
I believe in Greg Oden
Wow.
This is excellent work.
Why aren’t we looking to him like we did in the preseason?!
--
by CaptainSexyJacob on Oct 28, 2009 8:00 PM PDT reply actions
pickn roll
The Blazers have not been nor will they ever be a good pick and roll team both on offense and defense under McMillan. This greatly effects our offensive sets and limits Oden’s role in the offense. The other aspect is that we have never had a commitment to post play or any sort of in and out movement of the ball. I had thought that by now we would have evolved into a team that incorporates these concepts, but I am starting lose hope. How is Oden supposed to prove himself on offense if he doesn’t get any touches? I suspect that Oden’s demeanor will change if all his hard work on the glass, setting picks, blocking shots, etc etc is not paid off with touches. To me Oden is the only untouchable player on this squad and if he only develops a rebounding/defensive game we will never win a championship much less get out the west. Any one else is expendable to get a championship and all championship hopes rest with him and his development.
by socaltaoist on Oct 28, 2009 9:33 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
What about spacing?
I’m no basketball guru but to me the spacing seems all wrong when they try to get Greg the ball. Often times there will be another blazer in the general area effectively allowing his man to also guard Greg or at least making the “passer” nervous. Overall I was happy with G.O.’s performance. It would of been nice to see him dunk over a few houston punks but that will come. He definately helped on defense which in turn helps our offense.
Oh and another thing.
What about a game plan where you pass to greg with the intention of him NOT shooting but passing to cutters or back out to the three. He might get more comfortable with the ball if he’s not antisipating having to shoot it or make some offensive move. Plust it would be good practice.
Feed the Center
Even if Oden has the deer look,you still pass it to him as he will immediately pass it back out. This will get the team used to passing into the post and Greg will become more comfortable w/the ball.
The question I have is what do the Blazers do in practice? Do they pass to Oden in practice,or are they ignoring him there too? Because if they don’t practice getting him the ball,when will they ever do so?
I downloaded the game and rewatched it. The fact that Oden was that good on defense with out
getting in an offensive flow is quite encouraging. I mean we all know big men play more inspired defense when they get fed the ball on offense. Yet Oden shut down the middle, altered numberous shots, blocked 5 or 6 shots. I’d rather see and Oden jump hook than an Aldridge fade away. At least Oden isn’t soft in the post.
I had a thought
there is an old saying whereby a coach is said to “be maximizing his player’s potential (talent)”. The thought being that a player, and thus the sum of all your players, possess some amount of inate talent or ability, and a coach’s effectiveness can be measured (not literally) in how much of that ability is manifested into results. 100% is pretty much impossible, but the goal is to get as close to maximum as possible of course. this is generally accomplished in two ways: 1) Coaching/Teaching players on improving their CURRENT abilities/skills to approach their POTENTIAL abilities/skills. In other words – helping players improve. 2) devising an scheme/playbook/gameplan that plays to the strenghts of the players’ talents and limits the exposure of their weaknessness as much as possible.
I’m interested to read people’s thoughts on the following: A) Do they generally believe in this kind of thinking/theory, and if so, then B) How well do they think Nate and his staff do in both aspects of maximizing talent discussed above: the teaching element, and the gameplanning element.
How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009
I like the breakdown, but it’s one game to me, I’m not worried about it. I like the fact that Oden stayed involved on defense, I believe if he continues to do that the offense will come. If he looked disconnected at both ends of the floor I’d be worried. Success on defense should keep his confidence high while he works on developing his offensive game.
I'm on your bandwagon. Eating your nachos.
This is one of those really valuable group think threads thanks to Ben's insight
I might suggest we are chewing around the edges of the problem of the fundamental character of this team, the how shall it be done of it. Several thoughts:
1) I watched the Spurs demolish New Orleans tonight – I’d say it was an outstanding model of how to play winning basketball.
2) We have a situation which is not static but dynamic. We have spent three years establishing B Roy as a super-star and learning one way of how to win given the talent we had in place. This year the elements of the talent in place have been dramatically and somewhat unexpectedly changed. Last night the Blazers did not change commensurately and they did not fully or even admirably utilize that which has be given by which the team may reach its goals. Our imagination did not engage the problem or a solution. Rather we essentially with the exception of a run in Q2 reverted to our old ways with good post defense very much kicked up a notch.
3) The major changes come down to these: a) G O is ready to emerge and be a beginning superstar (think B Roy three years ago); when he gets done God willing and the creeks don’t rise GO will be the Alpha male on this team, no question. b) out of no where came Andre Miller, a hugely talented true point guard. We have no experience of how to play with or properly utilize his gifts. They are however one of the essential keys to the kingdom and we ignore them at our peril. c) These two realities combine with the other unexpected development which is that so far B Roy has not been and may not continue to be the never ending genius we have come to expect.
So where are we? The way Nate knows how to win is discipline, hard work and keep it simple. He has low tolerance for mistakes so mostly we play slow and deliberate. Nothing wrong with that, it did get us to 54 wins etc. but then we found out where the end of the track is. That put us on notice that if we wish to further down the line we are going to have to make some genuinely material changes in how things get done. And for whatever reason so far this year, slow or no, we are making a ton of mistakes. Slow and deliberate has no special magic. It is not the key to the kingdom.
What we come to then ought to be the realization that the nature of reality is changing out from under our very feet such that we cannot continue exclusively depending upon the same old script with which to make our play. Perhaps as we found in the playoffs BRoy cannot be expected to endlessly pull our bacon out of the fire. More and more the Coach Popoviches and Adlemens of this world are on to him and have been meditating about how to minimize this thorn in their sides. They don’t have it waxed but they are making progress. It is not going to work for this team to rebound, shoot jump shots at 45% success and let BRoy make up the difference in the 4th. It is not prudent to keep trotting out the same one act pony.
I might suggest framing what we are all itching for as the sense that we are on track to get beyond round one of the playoffs; in fact to be the one’s facing the Lakers in 7 for the Western finals. That is what we want this year. It may be too much; no matter it is a perfectly sane goal. That goal needs a plan and that plan has got to be more than B Roy in the 4th. We are in danger of killing our version of that famous goose with golden eggs. I fear it is change and start that change now or we are not going to see 54 or the Lakers this year.
I watched Denver take apart Utah tonight. Utah is good, they had the upper hand for 36 minutes, but Denver is better after 48 full minutes. Utah crumbled big time. Boozer had a poor showing but that was not all of it by any means. Utah got tired and Denver ran em down. Denver plays with exuberance. Andre Miller plays with exuberance. Playing with exuberance is what it takes to get past 54 and round one. We have got to learn how to play a complete game of good old Spurs hardball for 48 minute or get left behind.
How we do that is beyond the scope of this piece or my mind, but it does not take a genius to see from most of the pre-season and Tuesday that we have a long way to go. Crisp, sure, disciplined done knowing where your mate is going to be in his pattern and by golly he gets there when the ball gets there and that is how the touch down is accomplished. Miss that timing and you don’t score. It is not easy but Andre Miller and Juan Howard among perhaps others know exactly what is required and how it needs be done. We would be wise to seek and accept their counsel. Greg Oden is the essential uber piece to making it happen. We would be wise to begin utilizing all his great talents with all deliberate speed. This decidedly implies learning a different way to get it done. I’t’s still hoops but it needs to be our version of the San Antonio and Boston play-books.
by blazer_believer on Oct 29, 2009 3:28 AM PDT reply actions
Bad news
Houston essentially showed the league how to play the blazers: pack the middle and force them to shoot from afar.
This is a bit dangerous
I can’t help but get the impression, as you track every single tough Greg has, that you feel you know what is best for Greg’s development.. above and beyond what the coaches, players and entire organization know. Shouldn’t you at least let greg develop a bit before you apply the pressure? Maybe Greg, Brandon and Nate know something we dont know? Like the fact that we are winning just the way we are… no need to force Greg to play offense, what we’re doing is working. Greg has 8-10 years of basketball yet to play, how about we actually let him develop???
I don't worry so much about the development of Oden here,
but I focus on the lack of touches, as a part of the game plan. Chart offensive possessions and see how often more then two players are involved in the flow of the offense and how many are positioned stationary on the floor. Nate begs for ball movement, but player movement is needed. We set practically no off ball screens. The bulk of our plays begin with a pick and roll and three guys standing in the corners, or a post up with four guys standing around watching. The beginning of this season looks just like last season. I can give the players time to gel, but the offensive game plan is not showing creativity. And hasn’t for a few seasons.
As good teams get better and have success, what ultimately happens is the players begin to dictate the way the game is played, and coaches go from calling plays to reinforcing concepts. A team with this many weapons should be in constant motion, screening, cutting, passing. Instead all I hear the coach talk about is “touches” and who gets them. What are the players learning here? When they do get the “touches” its like Sarge has ordered them to score, and they look pressured to do so, this is how Roy goes 5-18. Is this why their team mate stand around watching and aren’t cutting when their team mate gets in trouble? I don’t know but I have watched and given the coach more then enough time to show his own development and I starting to wonder if he’s the guy who can take us there. Again, this isn’t a “one game” analysis, this is what I have been watching since coach got here.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
