Previous previews

Eastern Con  Atlantic with playoffs

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/22/1096652/eastern-conference-preview

Eastern Con Central Division

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/16/1088307/eastern-conference-preview-central

Eastern Con Southwest Division Preview Link here:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/12/1082607/eastern-conference-preview

Houston Rockets

Prediction: 31-51 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Houston will probably be better than this.  Record-wise, they’ll probably win more games than I am giving them credit for, and they will be a tough team to play against every night.  Rick Adelman is a great coach.  He is mostly known for getting his teams out on the break, the Blazers and Kings of yore, but he showed last year when he got the Rockets to be one of the best defensive teams in the league and play a slower pace to assure Yao Ming was still a viable part of the offense.  Of course it helps when you have a agile 7’ 5” guy manning the middle in Yao, and a physically, probably crazy small forward in Ron Artest.  Now here’s the thing, neither of these two are with the team this year.  Granted, Trevor Ariza replaces Artest defensively, and can probably do about as good a job, and to start the season he will be paired on the wings with Shane Battier until Tracy McGrady returns.  This should give the Rockets some good perimeter defending, but neither Battier and especially Ariza won’t be able to take as many chances without a big stopper clogging the lane behind them.

Chuck Hayes is a 6’ 7” center, but is an absolute tree trunk down low.  He shouldn’t have too many problems against the stronger centers, but tall jump shooters or long armed agile post centers could give him problems because of his lack of height.  David Andersen is taller as the backup, but also a lot softer in the post.  Luis Scola returns as the power forward and will need to step up much more this year as the second option.  He’ll probably be the first player to touch the ball in the offensive set in the high post.  He can make plays from here, whether passing, driving or hitting the jumper.  His role is heightened until McGrady returns.

Right now, the key to this team, again, until McGrady’s return, is Aaron Brooks.  He has showed he can score because of his quickness and his outside shot, and last year’s playoff series against the Blazers and Lakers showed he can step up when needed.  He is now the most dynamic offense player the Rockets have and will be looked upon to create his own shot.  It is not as important for Brooks to run the offense as one might think.  Adelman has always done well with shoot first point guards, Terry Porter, Jason Williams, Mike Bibby, to name more than a few.  If Brooks can become more consistent, he could easily help form a good trio when TMac and Yao return.

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: 34-48 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

This team could easily blow up into the failed experiment it can be, but I have to think, talent alone will help this team win games.  Sure, everyone on the team is a shoot first player.  The defense, specifically interior, is atrocious with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but again if this team starts out well, and everyone stays happy they could do alright before the inevitable crash.

The biggest single thing that could help this team is an injury.  If one of the five starters misses a significant time it could be a classic addition by subtraction.  For example if Rudy Gay goes down and Sam Young takes his place in the starting lineup, Young isn’t going to complain about lack of shots.  He is a rookie, knows his place.  Rudy Gay on the other had thinks, and maybe rightly so, that this should be his team, whether he takes ownership or not.  He wants his shots, thinks he needs them, and will probably disrupt team chemistry whether he means to or not.  It isn’t just Gay, though, Iverson, assuming he doesn’t buy into coming off the bench for the second straight year, could create the same problem.  To make matters worse, he’ll start the season injured and then come back into the rotation.  I think Iverson will get injured this year as well, causing even more amount of time to be lost.

Zach Randolph can score and rebound, but he wouldn’t be mistaken for a team player.  He makes stupid plays, yes, he defends worse than the Alamo, but I honestly don’t believe he makes his team worse.  This is not to say he makes his team better.  ZBo is ZBo.  Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol aren’t a defensive tandem that anyone would like to have and that’s why Hasheem Thabeet will end up getting a lot of minutes next to Randolph.

Two players, young and talented, are in the backcourt together.  Why Iverson was signed when you have Michael Conley and OJ Mayo doesn’t make much sense.  Conley, who really hasn’t had full reign as the point guard, will get inconsistent minutes with Iverson on board, especially considering the Mayo, the most talented player on the squad, needs true star’s minutes to continue to develop.  It is the obvious conclusion that talent and success don’t go hand in hand and blending talent and constructing a talented team are two very different things.

New Orleans Hornets

Prediction: 43-37 8th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul. Best five players in the league?  If not, who do your drop?  It can’t be Paul.  He has gotten better every season, and the past three years his team has gotten worse.  This is no fault of Paul’s, rather the talent around him has broken down or not been reloaded.  Paul is no keeping this team alive, maybe the franchise and he needs some real help.

Emeka Okafor is a good start to rebuilding this surviving playoff team.  He is better than Tyson Chandler in every conceivable way except catching lob passes and they are both injured about the same amount, although recently Chandler has been injured more often. It’s a good start, and Paul will make him a more dangerous weapon than he was in Charlotte.  He should add a legitimate post threat alongside David West where it is very important in the western conference.

The wings are where it gets a little tricky.  Peja Stojakovic can still shoot, but the rest of his offensive game is limited, and that’s when he is healthy.  He hasn’t been healthy for quite sometime.  Morris Peterson is the shooting guard by default.  Probably better suited as a small forward, but not a good starting option for either position, Peterson and Devin Brown are not what a playoff team needs.  James Posey is a good sixth man, but even he has slowed down.  A couple bright spots are Julian Wright as a Shawn Marion like power forward and Darren Collison at point guard.  The development of these two might be the only hope of improving upon last year and providing Paul with some more support.

Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: 51-31 5th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Dallas, as far as the group goes, might only have one or two more shots left at getting to the finals.  Luckily, the Mavs made some moves this summer to insure that won’t only stay where they are, but have a chance to improve a great deal.  This team has an outside chance of getting to the finals.  Unfortunately, their weakest position might be there downfall.

From starters to backups, the Mavs are solid from positions one through four.  They have one great point guard, Jason Kidd even still, and a energetic playmaker behind him in Juan Jose Barea.  It gets better, Josh Howard slides down to the two with “The Jet,” Jason Terry playing behind him.  Jason Terry is the best scoring guard off the bench, hands down (Barbosa is close, maybe Ben Gordon if he is on the bench again).  The acquisition of Shawn Marion gives some depth the small forward and power forward positions, and hopefully, back with a great point guard, he can get a lot more east opportunities than in Miami and Toronto.

Former MVP and constant candidate Dirk Nowitzki does a lot for his team and it doesn’t need to be explained here, but his backup, Drew Gooden was a steal in free agency.  I never understood why he didn’t stick.  He averaged a near double-double everywhere he’s been, plays good defense and can hit a fifteen footer with regularity.  He can spell Nowitzki or play alongside him.  The Achilles heal of this team is at center.  While Dampier is certainly solid enough for 25-30 minutes a game, his backup, Nathan Jawai is completely unproven.  The absence of Desagna Diop in years past, or the unfortunate missed signing of Marcin Gortat this summer will really hurt the Mavs.  Competing with the likes of Lakers, Blazers, Spurs, Hornets and some others, the center positions lack of depth will really hurt the Mavs come playoff time.

San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: 60-22 2nd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

On paper, probably the best, most experienced team in the league.  Adding Richard Jefferson is great for depth on the wings, and if Manu Ginobli is healthy again, he Michael Finley and Roger Mason are a pretty deep and solid core.  The drafting of DeJuan Blair and the free agent signing Antonio McDyess will finally give Tim Duncan some legitimate help down low.

The key for this team is to make sure to get through the regular season unscathed.  This mean winning games early and getting the starters, and Ginobli less minutes.  Tim Duncan is only 33 years old, but with the amount of playoff games he has played he might as well be forty.  With the added depth, this should be possible.

Tony Parker continues to improve his game.  His speed and finishing ability around the rim make him very hard to stay in front of.  He also has a midrange game that has allowed him to pull up when the defender is off balance.  George Hill backs him up and is another athletic point guard in the mold of Parker without as much skill.

Outside of having good players, San Antonio is so mentally tough as a franchise that once in the playoffs, high seed or not, they will be prepared to play whoever.  If injuries weren’t a factor, the Spurs would be favored to go to the finals once again.  That’s a big if.  Coach Popovich is smart with his players.  He knows Duncan is the ultimate key to success (it’s pretty obvious).  Last year, Duncan would sit on the bench for significant stretches of time while the team struggled.  Popovich would use this to not only give the role players a chance to shine under pressure, but build up Duncan’s anticipation to get back on the floor down the stretch.  With more pieces, front court players and otherwise, the Spurs should be able to weather the storm when Duncan is on the sideline.