With the season about to start, everyone is laying out their predictions for the team's win total this year.  Most of these predictions seem to be based solely on an assessment of whether this year's Blazers will be better or worse than last years.   I have little doubt that--barring major injuries--the Blazers will be better this year than they were last year.  Any chemistry issues will work themselves out and the Blazers are just a more talented team then they were last year.  But that might not necessarily translate into a higher win total.  Here's why: the Western Conference as a whole looks to be much better than it was last year.

Last year, in the West, there were essentially 9 good teams and 6 crappy ones.  The 9 good teams padded their win totals by racking up wins against the 6 crappy teams.  This year, virtually all of the 6 bottom feeders will likely be better.  Some of them may even join the playoff hunt.  Let's break them down.

Oklahoma City: Does anyone doubt that OKC will be better this year?  Their young nucleus will be more experienced and they've added a nice new piece in James Harden.  I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but I'd be shocked if they don't pull down 10 more wins than last year's squad. 

LA Clippers: This may sound crazy, but I think there is a reasonable chance that the Clippers will be WAY better this year.  They had a lot of talent last year, but they had injury and attitude problems.  With Kaman, Camby, and Davis healthy, with Blake Griffin on the team, with Eric Gordon a year more experienced, they may actually be in the playoff hunt this year.  At the very least, it seems hard to believe they won't win more than the 19 games they won last season. 

Golden State: First of all, Golden State wasn't that bad last year.  They won 29 games, including some quality wins.  And that was with a very young team and a very dysfunctional system.  Their system is still dysfunctional, but their players are more experienced.  I think they're likely to improve their win total as well.

Minnesota: Two words.  Al Jefferson.  He was out most of last year.  He's back.  Ramon Sessions is pretty good too, and he wasn't there last year.  Barring injury, they will win more games this year. 

Memphis: The Grizzlies will undoubtedly have a drama-filled, inconsistent season.  But there's no question they improved their talent pool in the off-season.  Even with inconsistent play, I can easily see them winning more than the 24 games they won last year. 

Sacramento: Sacramento is the one team I suspect will still be really bad.  Then again, they only won 17 games last season, so that total will not be hard to surpass.  Tereke Evans is a good player and there are some other young players on that team that will be a little more experienced this year.  I can see them at least getting up into the 20s in the win column. 


So do the math.  If the bottom 6 are all getting more wins, it's going to be coming at the expense of the top 9.  Not only that, but among the top 9, some teams will be better than last year.  In particular, I suspect San Antonio, Dallas, New Orleans, and Utah will likely be better than last year (I suspect Denver and LA LAkers will be about the same and Houston and Phoenix will be at little worse--but still decent). 

The Western Conference will be tough this year.  There will be very few easy victories.  If the Blazers want to improve on their win total from last year, they will need to be significantly better than they were last year.