SUMMARY INFO

Four categories of games (now with additional names for the non-numerically inclined):

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Back to Backs (hereafter BtoB) are also tracked so as to provide further data on schedule difficulty.

I had always viewed games using these categories, but this fan post convinced me that others might be interested, and thus the sched ahead posts began, with all results generated by an Excel spreadsheet (laziness FTW).  Due to complaints from the numerically challenged, I added food names to the basic Cat 1-4 designation.

Preseason overview

As a bonus, I have used the "jscot stupid sched projections" (c).  These stupidly assume that a team will continue to win each category of games at the same rate they have won them to date.  I will not explain why this is stupid.  If you post stupid things and say they are stupid, you are exempt from explaining why they are stupid. 

That should be a law.  I will make it so when I rule the world.  It would save so much time if people didn't have to try to explain their stupidity.  

And so we begin.  The First Year of Blazer Domination. 

Nothing has changed in any of the tables, and I am both busy and lazy, so I refer you to the preseason overview if you want to review those.  Again, I am using last year's finishing record for each team to determine categories.  This initial weekly update is simply a look at this week, for games 10/27-11/1.  I may or may not be able to provide daily updates for a while, but hope to keep the weekly ones coming.

There will be no jscot Stupid Sched Projections until every team has played at least one game in each category.  The projections may be stupid, but they are not Division-By-Zero-Stupid.

The Coming Week

1. Portland.  We start with two Jawbreaker (Cat 2) Home games against Houston and Denver (BtoB for them), then go on the road for a Cat 4 Rocky Road against Houston and a dangerous Banana Peel Cat 3 road game BtoB in OKC.  All four are definitely games we could win, but we could also lose more than one of them if we don't bring a good effort right from the start.  Balkman (and JR Smith, HT PoliSam) will be out when we play Denver.  Scola should play but may not be 100% in the opener.  Three wins would be a solid start for us, four would be superb.
2. Dallas.  The Mavs open with a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Washington, though Washington probably won't stay in Cream Puff territory this year, so that's probably not a fair assessment.  Antawn Jamison is out with a shoulder injury.  They follow with a Cat 4 Rocky Road at the L@kers, then the next night a Banana Peel Cat 3 at the Clips in which both teams are on a back to back.  No travel for Dallas on the back to back, while the Clips play in Utah the night before, and it is their fourth in five nights (what a start!), so even though it is in LA you'd have to give Dallas the edge.  Camby should be back by then, which would help the Clips.  Josh Howard may not be ready for opening night.   
3. Denver.  They start with a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home against Utah, then the next night are in Portland for a Cat 4 Rocky Road back to back.  They close the weak/week (take your pick) with a Cat 1 Cream Puff home game against Memphis.  Renaldo Balkman has a two game suspension to start the season.  Later: JR Smith is suspended for the first seven games (thanks to PoliSam).
4. Houston.  Open with a Cat 4 at Portland, then have a back to back Banana Peel Cat 3 at Golden State.  Close the week with a Cat 2 Jawbreaker at home against Portland.  They can't afford to start 0-3, and winning at Golden State is hard even when you aren't on a back to back (Azubuike is hobbled for the Warriors, but that is unlikely to have much impact), so expect them to throw everything at us in Houston if we get them opening night.  Scola has been out with an ankle, but practiced Sunday for the first time, and should play.  1-2 would be a respectable week for them, 2-1 would be outstanding.
5. L.A.  The Evil Empire starts with three home games, Cat 1 Cream Puff against the Clips (Camby may be out for the Clips -- and Blake Griffin as well, HT PoliSam), then two Cat 2s against Dallas and Atlanta.  Pau is likely to miss the opener, but ought to be back after that.  I would expect Dallas to have Josh Howard back by the time they face the L@kers.  No real reason LA should lose any of these, but the Dallas and Atlanta games have the potential to be tough.
6. N.O.  Pretty tough start, opening with a Cat 4 Rocky Road at San Antonio, home for a Cat 1 Cream Puff against Sacramento, then East for a Cat 4 Rocky Road at Boston.  Two wins would be a great week. 
7. Phoenix.  The Suns begin their attempt to return to the playoffs with a Cat 3 Banana Peel at the Clips, who will be on a back to back after opening against the L@kers.  They then go home for Cream Puff Home games against Golden State and Minnesota.  They will be looking for a 3-0 start. 
8. S.A.  Interesting start, with a Jawbreaker Home game against N.O., then BtoB Cat 4 Rocky Road at Chicago.  Finally, back home for a Cream Puff against Sacramento, who will be on a back to back themselves (brutal start for Sac this week, 3 in 4 nights, all on the road, at OKC, NO, and SA).  The Spurs will be looking for at least two out of the three.
9. Utah.  Just two games in opening week, Cat 4 at Denver then Cat 1 Cream Puff Home to the Clips, who will be on the third game of a four in five nights stretch.  Ronnie Price is day to day.  Balkman will be out for Denver in the opener. 

Opening Night

Houston at Portland.  Will the Rockets launch or fizzle?  We see them for two of their first three games.  Lots of interesting sub-plots here.  Revenge for the playoff loss.  Ariza coming back to Portland.  The best center in the West (Yao) out injured, while the heir apparent, who was out injured when they came early last year, is on the rise.  Scola killed us in the playoffs, and he's hobbled a little.  A team that is hurting, but still has some players, and may become dangerous if T-Mac returns strong -- but we'll get them twice before he comes back.  Great time to face and beat them.  Will be much tougher in Houston, but we should definitely get this first one.  

Washington at Dallas.  The Eastern Hype team vs. the Western Hype team.  Jamison out, Josh Howard doubtful.  Both have some big changes from last year.  Both have been hyped as greatly improved.  I'm skeptical of both, though Washington should obviously be better than last year.  Dallas should get this one.  If they don't, it may tell us the hype about Washington is true, or that the hype about Dallas isn't, or both.  If the Mavs do win, all it tells us is they are still a good team that won a home game.

LAC "at" LAL.  Perhaps Pau will be out, Blake Griffin will be all-world for at least one night (questionable for opening night), Baron Davis will play the best game of his career, and Cheikh Samb will be forgotten.  Perhaps.

Game on.  Let's roll.

And Finally

Have you remembered to purchase your tickets for kids? 

Dave's original post announcing the 400 ticket target.

This man still wants to make bets, I think.

Dave's latest post stating that around 230 of the 400 have been sold.

From Dave's post:

Blazersedge Night:  Monday, January 25th:  Blazers vs. Hornets

Tickets sell for $22 each.  There is a $5 service charge per order no matter what the size.  Save money by buying tickets together with friends.

How to Order

You can call the Blazers directly at 503-797-9637.  PLEASE MAKE SURE to tell them you're ordering for Blazersedge Night and that you want the tickets to be donated to the kids.  (Side Note:  We also have a block of tickets reserved for BE folks who want to attend.  You can buy seats for yourself if you wish.)  The Blazers accept all of the usual forms of payment.

You can also make a PayPal donation to blazersedge22@yahoo.com.  We will pool the money collected and purchase tickets with it.  You can donate enough for multiple tickets or even partial amounts...anything is welcome.

You can also e-mail me directly at blazersub@yahoo.com  if you'd prefer to send a check via snail mail.