Intangible Growth...and Why It Matters More Than Stats Or Wins This Season
by hawkblogger on Oct 24, 2009 6:27 PM PDT
Email
Print
The Blazers will win 57 games this year. No, they'll win 41. Maybe they'll win 54 again. Brandon Roy will average 25 pts this year. Actually, he should focus on upping his assist average to 6.0 or greater. LMA should average 9+ rebounds if he wants to really realize his potential...and on, and on, and on. There is no shortage of debate about numbers when it comes to sports. I'm a stat geek myself. One thing that has become crystal clear to me while watching sports for the last 30 years is that there is no combination of numbers that makes a team a dynasty or even a one-time champion. The same is true for this budding Blazer bunch. Let me share a few of the intangible areas of growth I'll be watching for this season, and ask that you contribute yours and debate mine.
Since I have a couple restless boys waiting for me to finish writing this post so I will go play with them, I'll go for the things I believe are most important as opposed to an exhaustive list. Let's start with our fearless leader...
There is an odd love/hate relationship with Nate in Portland. It's hard to argue with his results, but I think we've all noticed some tendencies that are going to hold us back as a team if they are not addressed. The biggest one hear is how he handles Greg's foul trouble. Nate has a massive stage hook he is not afraid to use on Oden at the first sign of foul trouble. I'd argue that there is no team in the NBA better equipped if their #1 center fouls out than the Blazers. Even if Joel gets into foul trouble, LMA and Juwan can fill in. Every time Nate pulls Greg when he gets into foul trouble, he just reinforces the notion that he is foul prone. Refs need to see Greg play *with* fouls. Heck, they just need to see Greg play. I've seen Nate acknowledge as much this pre-season, so let's hope it takes.
It's been discussed in many different ways by many different players over a number of seasons that Nate holds the reigns pretty tight. There was the moment when Jarrett Jack and Nate had a late night meeting in his hotel room on the road to watch tape and Nate proclaimed he was feeling more comfortable letting Jarrett lead. We have heard Nate talk about trying to sit back a little more and let the team set its own rhythm. What has actually transpired is Nate up off the bench barking out orders nearly every time down the court. And with guys like Sergio and Bayless over the years, he's had reason to be that way. He is the guy who has been advocating for more veteran additions to the team. Now he has two veteran point guards who deserve his respect and his restraint.
One of the things I have learned in the quest of being a leader in my own organization is that there is a difference between learning how to manage people directly and how to manage managers. Calling out the plays gives Nate a sense of impact and value. Stepping back and allowing his floor leaders to step forward means Nate needs to derive his impact and value elsewhere. For someone in my position, that means looking farther ahead and thinking through scenarios while allowing my floor leaders to handle the day-to-day work. What could Nate do with that extra energy and thought if he let his guys step forward? Work the refs more actively? Look for patterns he can exploit with substitutions or certain sets? It's time for Nate to transcend beyond a front-line manager. I believe he and his players will have more to offer that way.
Last thing on Nate is to get out of the habit of sticking with his rotation players no matter what. Jerryd Bayless is a valuable weapon in this league right now. So is Juwan Howard. I've rarely, if ever, seen Nate break his rotation patterns, even in games where nothing seems to be working. A regular rotation is key to establishing consistency over the course of a season, but it should be not be sacred.
Brandon Roy
Brandon has been a leader on this team for some time. The youth of the team and his clear position as the best player has allowed that to happen. This may not be a popular opinion, but I believe having a high-quality veteran player like Andre Miller (and Juwan Howard, to a lesser extent) has been a little intimidating for Roy. Miller will not automatically swoon under Roy's leadership. For the first time in a few years, Roy is going to have to earn the respect of a player that matters on this team. I'm not espousing a major conspiracy theory, but I would not be surprised if a little part of Brandon wanted Miller to come off the bench to further establish the pecking order. It might not have even been a conscious thing, but it's a completely natural human reaction to a perceived threat.
Even if none of that is actually going through Brandon's head, the fact remains that he needs to demonstrate the ability to motivate veterans, not just guys that have grown up with him in the league. Miller won't be the last important veteran addition to the Blazers over the next 3-5 years.
We also need to see Brandon establish the ability to accentuate the strengths of other players on the team, while still being able to "turn it on" at a moment's notice. Great players get their key teammates going and sense when they need to assert themselves. Brandon has improved in these areas, but there are still countless times that we see LMA go off for 10 points to start a game, and then go without the ball for what seems like a whole quarter. If Brandon wants to be the guy with the ball, he must take the responsibility of getting guys involved as well.
The emergence of Greg Oden will have a profound effect on Aldridge this season. He has the skills to be the best Hi-Lo player in the NBA. It just so happens that we have the best Hi-Lo player I have ever seen on the team this year in Juwan Howard. The combination of Howard and Webber on the Fab5 at Michigan was the most effective Hi-Lo combination I have ever seen at any level. Howard had the reliable jumper from the free throw line out to the top of the key, and was an incredibly effective post passer (and still is as Oden can tell you). Webber had an even more limited offensive repertoire than Greg that year. He basically could just dominate a spot and dunk. Aldridge certainly has the silky smooth jump shot from that range, but he needs to demonstrate an improved ability to make effective passes into the post and move off the ball once he does enter it. That setup has all the makings of a dominant offensive set that could win a championship. It starts now, with some daily tutoring from the master himself.
I'll save the speech about rebounding because everyone harps on that with Aldridge. I will say that weakside rebounding and shot blocking, in particular, are areas he can really help this team with. Oden and Joel are going to slide off their men on numerous occasions to block shots and/or set screens. That gives LMA a ton of opportunities to rotate into the space they vacated to rebound, block a shot or get a bucket depending on the situation.
I think it's also critical that we see LMA find a way to still secure post position and scoring even with Greg's emergence. He is still our best low post threat and we can't have a repeat of Rasheed Wallace steadily foregoing his reliable post game for shots farther and farther out.
Greg Oden
The number one thing Greg needs to do this year is become part of it. Whether due to fouls or injury or personality, the team identity does not really include Greg yet. By the end of the season, it's needs to be just as foreign to picture this team without Greg as it does to picture it without LMA. That's not to say he should be considered as important as LMA or Brandon, but he should feel as central to the way the team operates. Case in point is that when Greg got in foul trouble last year, it was frustrating, but you didn't exactly know how that impacted the team. We need to get to the point where we all know the size and shape of the whole Greg leaves when he exits the lineup. Who has to step up? Does LMA slide to the post on offense? How does that change our defense?
The Team
The team itself needs to get out of the blocks faster. We need to dictate tempo and put teams on their heels from the get-go, and we need to see it during road games. The team was great at recovering from deficits last season, but that's no way to play over the long haul.
Perhaps the most maddening aspect of this team that needs to change is the ability to (1) stay with the hot hand (2) recognize and exploit mismatches. Many times these are one and the same, and this extends to coaches as well as players. Nate can't be pulling out LMA at his exact time in the 2nd quarter if he's just scored three baskets in a row and Blake can't start feeding Outlaw for jumpers either. Persistent, dogged determination to exploit the plentiful mismatches this team will have every night may be the most important area for growth overall.
Improving in areas like the ones above will not show up directly in the stats, but it will make us a team that moves closer to a champion. I'd love to hear what intangibles you are looking out for this season.
34 comments
|
15 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Good talking points.
I wonder how Roy & LMA will change now that they are paid. Some people don’t change, like Jordan, but others do of course. I really hope Roy’s assists shoot way up.
I hope, like you hope, that Nate believes that winning the right way means adapting to each situation and putting your best move forward. I realize that the past couple seasons it has been more important to learn than to win, but that time is gone. We can now pretty well count success as # of games won.
*Unless KP has a secret plan that makes this statement incorrect.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><> ><>
This is constructive criticism.
Let’s see how things go.
ignacio
wow
really solid assessment. I have long felt that this franchise will not be championship material until a “letting go” occurs. Mainly from Nate and Brandon. You articulated this very well.
speaking of letting go we shoud do that to nate.
The team is not buying in to him he was perfect in years past but I dont think he is a playoff coach.
by tevisthe4th on Oct 24, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
oh stop it
The Blazers have improved dramatically in each of Nate’s years as coach. We learned from our playoff experience last year. Nate learned too. Let’s wait at least another year before drawing such sweeping conclusions.
To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. -- Thomas Paine, US patriot & political philosopher (1737 - 1809)
Yeah and they have gotten monster players that have improved dramatically
Im just saying he does a good job but Just imagine if we had Popovich or Aldelman or jackson…..they would crush with our players.
i would love adelman here!
that guy knows the game. and we wouldn’t be having all this ego nonsense.
Wow that would be great!
If ANY OF THEM WERE AVAILABLE.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Oct 25, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Uhhhggg ! No Thank you to the Zenminor . . .
and his throne !
Pockavich and Adelman ? Well, as a long time coach and player,
I would say to much blame is placed on the coaches when losing
and too much credit when winning. 90 % of the credit or blame should
be on the players for effort, teamwork and performance. Coaches help
train, implement strategy and adjustments, as well as rotations/substitutions.
In the end, players have to execute !
GO BLAZERS !!!
DOWN WITH COINSY & THIS LOUSEY DEAL !!!!
It's GO time !
for a young team in the NBA playoffs,
coaching is critical!
he wasn't last year.
but he’s definitely earned the right to try and figure it out.
I agree
Brandon and Nate both would benefit from the realization that a successful leader knows how to delegate the leadership role.
My team went to the playoffs in my first year.
Very well written - I agree on all points - rec
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The concussion must have jarred him into "Destroy All Opposition Terminator Mode!" - BlazersOrBust
All will be fine in
Roy land Heis still learning too.
by heyheymymy on Oct 24, 2009 8:24 PM PDT reply actions
"The team was great at recovering from deficits last season, but that's no way to play over the long haul."
I’d like to think that’s one of the best qualities a team can ever posses. It demoralizes the opponent to know the lead they worked so hard to gain will be gone in jut a few minutes because you are relentless and you never ever quit on a play. The Blazers have got into the heads of the western conference coaches and players.
Interesting point of view BUT
several of the things you have listed here as “intangible” can in fact be measured, at least in part, by a statistical metric. Brandon effectively getting people involved will increase the teams offensive efficiency and their individual PER. LMA improving his weak side rebounding will be discernible by looking at his rebounding rate and our centers’ then comparing to last year. Likewise his scoring from the post vs. shooting jumpers will tell on his shot chart.
We need to get to the point where we all know the size and shape of the whole Greg leaves when he exits the lineup.The higher Greg’s numbers, the bigger this hole.
Pushing the tempo will be reflected in the team’s pace factor.
Statistics are just a tool for gaining a deeper appreciation of the level of performance of the players in the game, and they’re a very powerful tool. Granted they’re not the best measure of everything on your list (and in the case of measuring coaching, they’re almost worthless as there’s no hard stats kept for coaching decisions that I know of), but dismissing them as “intangibles” in favor of “seeing” these traits just with our eyes is to miss out on another source of perspective.
That said, I do agree with most of your points in that these are things we need to see.
"I think twittering and all that facebook crap just makes you a loser." ~ Charles Barkley
semantics aside
I think the stats you mention can be indicators of these things, but are not correlated 1:1.
Bring back the Uncle Cliffy!
Good discussion beginnings
Unlike previous posters I question some of your directions:
1. Nate has been able to take two different teams to the playoffs and himself ran top teams as the point guard. I suspect he will not dictate as much with Andre and he does with Steve. But for Steve, there is little indication that he can control the team. It is Brandon’s team, yet Brandon is still young and will need Nate to provide direction. I also managed managers. And my goal (actually the same goal with my children) was to provide boundaries that give them the security they need when they are young but always extending those boundaries as they grow to be just beyond what they themselves think they can do. At this level of maturity the only three players on the team that I think can be allowed wide boundaries are Andre, Juwan and Joel. Joel is not going to be involved in running the offense as his passing skills appear to be limited. Andre and Juwan as reserves can effectively handle moving the young guys with them into advantageous positions. Steve really struggles when trying to be what Andre is doing already. That attempt was one of the apparent causes of his high turnover ration in pre-season games 1-7. I am much more concerned on defense than on offense. That is where the boundaries are already wide because the players have to see and call out the opponent’s offensive intentions and move to counter them. I do expect (isn’t he already doing this?) that Nate will allow Andre much more freedom in his boundaries on offense. When Brandon is not in the game Andre can run the offense from the floor.
2. Nate sticking with his rotations is normal for NBA coaches. It establishes a rhythm that the team can depend on knowing if they miss a shot, they are still in the lineup. Nate does deviate during the last 4 minutes of each half, playing the combination that is most efficient. Non rotation players do get opportunity in certain needed situations. It is nice to have these weapons on your bench. In particular Howard will get plenty of minutes backing up LMA. Trout’s minutes are more likely to come in the last 4 minutes of each half when his ability to get his shot makes defending him difficult. Bayless has worked hard this summer and if his defense is capable to guard the smaller quicker guards or his energy is needed on offense he might be expected to play situational minutes. Nate has already used him that way this year.
3. LaMarcus has been our best low post player but there is no way that Greg does not move past him this year. LaMarcus still needs his touches when the starters are on the floor. But I expect that it is Greg that will force opponent coaches to stay awake nights plotting how to neutralize Greg and not LaMarcus. As a result I do think LaMarcus will improve his production this year. He does not have to carry the team as he so often did last year. The points about High-lo combinations seem very accurate and well expressed.
4. Team tempo will surely change when Andre is running the reserve unit. The starters will likely maintain their balanced attack running when opportunity arises but minimizing turnovers as well. I hope (and believe Nate demands) emphasis on efficient offense always. With Greg, the half-court defenses that stymied us in the past will be countered many times by his prowess down low.
Your comments on Brandon seem very perceptive and well expressed.
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
by lee3022 on Oct 24, 2009 9:20 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Well said
I would add that a constient rotation helps the players quite a bit.
by southern oregon on Oct 24, 2009 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for your thoughtful reply
on #1, Judging by Andre’s comments in Jason Quick’s article today, it certainly does not seem like Nate is giving Andre the freedom he is accustomed to. Andre even mentioned skepticism that he’d be able to make that second unit a running unit since “Nate likes to control each possession from the sideline.”
I think this is a classic example of micromanaging keeping an “employee” from realizing their full potential and value. Andre does not need Nate in his ear every time down the court.
on #2, I think I may not have been clear enough. I absolutely agree on the need for normal rotation. I just don’t think Nate does “situational” substitution that deviates from his normal rotation ever. Mostly, I’m talking about putting a player in the game that normally does not play, like Bayless. Nate has not done that yet this year because this year has not started yet. If we see Bayless in a game that’s not a blowout, it’ll be a good sign of progress.
- We’ll have to agree to disagree here. I’m not sure Greg will ever be as polished of a post player as LMA. He may be more feared, as you indicate, but LMA has all the skills to be a lights out post player, including many moves Greg will never be able to do.
Bring back the Uncle Cliffy!
by hawkblogger on Oct 24, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions
the one that is showing up as 1. is supposed to be #3
Bring back the Uncle Cliffy!
by hawkblogger on Oct 24, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions
These are good responses
I do view Jason Quick as a sensationalist who gains and holds his position of attention by rubbing raw the small things he can get players to say. The article you cite clearly appears to be an opinion piece by Quick with quotes thrown in to bolster his opinion. The whole idea of Andre not expecting how Nate wants to execute our offense is surprising compared with the original stories when Andre was signed. These articles quoted both KP and Nate as saying Andre understood the Blazers offense completely and came with specific ideas for using it. So how Nate wants to run the offense should not be any surprise.
As for Bayless I think I remember a quote from Nate this last week about Bayless starting to earn minutes by his preseason play. A good story from Joe Freeman this week here sounds positive from Nate and cites the Utah game up there where Bayless had 13 points and 7 assists. It is interesting to note (not in Freeman’s article) that this game Andre started and the entire starting offense was dreadful, the other four were 6 for 25 and we were blown out of the game in the 1st quarter. Yes, Roy did not play and Andre had 13 points, 4 assists and 3 turnovers. That did not seem to be an illustration of ‘Andre outplayed Steve’ since Steve in the same game had 19 points 3 assists and 1 turnover. Perhaps the statistical argument fails to consider the opposing team’s personnel. Darren Williams played about the same minutes as Andre and it is reasonable to assume that Steve’s minutes came while Darren was on the bench. The same caveat must be applied to the statistics Quick inserts in the story. I digress.
I do think that Nate substitutes outside of the rotation. Last year he had 11 players with more than 650 minutes and 9 players over 1,200. In comparison Denver had 9 players over 1,200 and 10 players over 650. The extra player in Portland’s list is Jerryd Bayless. Phil Jackson (who some say is a pretty good coach) had 7 players over 1,200 and 11 players over 650. Cleveland had 8 players over 1,200 and 10 players over 650. Nate’s use of his players does not seem significantly different from other teams.
I do not think Greg is polished yet in the post. LMA is primarily a jump shooter and that is often outside of the post. Greg is using his jump hook some in the post but his dunks are what teams must stop. I see the dunk as a humbling event to the other team. At home you have heard the crowd response to our dunks and the quiet we hear after the opponent dunks. It is also far more efficient that the jump shot. These are some of the factors that make me question LMA as our best post player in the future and that future looks to me to be sometime this year. When this time next year rolls around I think it likely Greg will be our second max contract player. He is just so dominant, But this is strictly my opinion and I value yours as well.
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
That's a nice analysis
and I completely agree (if I read you clearly) there’s something really dubious coming out of the relationships engaged in by Miller and the journalists. That they may be twisting his words goes without saying; though it’s still worth noting that Miller has done some PR damage to his cause. He’s not the all-star quality player who might be forgiven for demanding his talents be used in a certain manner along the lines of Arenas, McGrady or Roy so in my own mind he should play within the system if he truly wants to make the greatest contribution. The first half of the season will show everyone if Miller is all talk or if the journalists are all lies wet. I may be dubious but stillI, I give him the benefit of the doubt.
Nate stated that his #1 goal in training camp was team defense.
If this team can become a top 5 or even 7-8 in this area the sky is he limit. I would also love to see the team dominate the boards on both ends, we were very good last year this year I see no reason this team can’t lead the league by a wide margin. CRASH!!!!!!
"BEER IS LIVING PROOF THAT GOD LOVES US"
- Benjamin Franklin-
Control as a Matter of Necessity
By definition, anytime a small organization – and 15 players is small – adds a player of Millers caliber, it has a ripple effect out to every other position. Combine this with an improving Oden, Fernandez, Batum and Bayless, the return of Webster, and the maturation of Roy and Aldridge, and you have an evolving team whose personality will continue to develop.
The coaching staff, in turn, must continually grow and adapt as well – as has been pointed out. Unlike some, though, I don’t forget that what people have seen from Mac in terms of his oncourt control of the plays, is directly related to the fact that he was handed a turnaround job by KP. The Blazers are effectively beginning only the 4th year of that turnaround, and as as of now, only Pryz and Outlaw have survived the purge. Adaption and change for Mac, as such, has been the rule, not the exception.
To trust a playmaker, for example, you must actually have one you can trust. Blake joined the organization two years ago, and Miller just got here. Roy, in turn, has played 3 years. Only last year beginning with Blakes 2nd year and Roy’s third, did Mac even have a playmaker on the floor that he could begin to trust. However, the team was still shaping itself, meaning that Blake, Roy and Mac had to work effectively together to get those 54 wins. Oden was in an out, Webster was injured, and Fernandez, Batum and Bayless were 1st year players. There were no plays for those players two years ago – because they weren’t playing. Much of the playbook we now talk about had to be created last year – but not before. The playbook was evolving – as was the system. And still is. Mac has not had the luxury of having veterans to play within a system, as is the case in San Antorio or LA. Thus, he has exercised greater control than some appear to like. But that control was one of necessity.
Now, however, he has most of the pieces of the future in place. And he has players with enough experience to play within a system. So, in one sense I agree that this is the year to watch it all begin to gel. As much as we debate the Miller-Blake or Webster-Batum starting issues, in point of fact, we have far fewer issues as to who starts and plays this year, than in the previous three years. We know that Roy/Aldridge/Oden own their positions. We know that Fernandez/Pryz/Outlaw are the second team. This is the stable datum. To have only one new player – Miller, and a returning Webster must – for Mac, be quite a luxury. Last year, after all, he had 4 rookies to think about, Webster out for the year, and then the Sergio/Bayless debate.
you make a good point
but it is a chicken and egg question. Trust has to be earned but it also has to be given. I don’t root against Nate, but I wouldn’t bet on him either.
This season should be all about responding to the Houston series. Kp and Nate need an answer to what Houston did to our offense. KP came up with one in Andre Miller. Was that a good one? I don’t know. But this preseason appears to reinforce the clenching, hide behind Brandon mode that limited the team from forming an adaptable team-based identity last year. Sooner or later, this team is going to have to confront that softness. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. And after a 54 win season, why wait any longer?
This season should be all about responding to the Houston series…this preseason appears to reinforce the clenching, hide behind Brandon mode that limited the team
The Blazer’s success or failure this season can be distilled down into 4 words
“It’s the playoffs, stupid”
A million words and more are going to be written on Blaersedge between now and May, but if the season ends in the first round, none of them will be more important than those 4
Nate. KP. Brandon. Miller. Their legacy and future will be defined not by what happens from November to April, but what happens in May-June. The regular season is just the preliminary matches, the post season is the “main” event. As fans of a contending team, we need to manage our expectations consider the playoff roster “priorities” accordingly
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Great post
Good to hear some insight coming from the outside that is logical and well-reasoned. I have noticed a lot of the things you talked about myself, but my thoughts were nowhere near as eloquent.
I have always thought the real key to this season is LMAs development. If he becomes an All Star like he says he wants to, then the sky really is the limit. For the blazers to take the next step, opponents need to start to fear LMA like they fear Roy. It shouldn’t matter if he is playing with Oden, Pryz or Outlaw next to him, LMA should become the co-main attraction with Brandon. He needs to get nastier and more aggressive, especially against elite forwards. He needs to find a way to get that outside shot going consistently and within the offense.
Once the blazers have that second all-star, watch out
No time to really engage here
but I just wanted to say this is a really, really good fanpost and ongoing discussion. I don’t agree entirely with everything in the fanpost, but I agree with a lot of it, and it is very well presented.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
- The Facebook campaign to hire Will Ferrell for All-Star Game player intros is underway
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
