Armchair Coaching: Substitutions/Lineups.

by nima on Oct 24, 2009 10:06 AM PDT Comment 34 comments

Everyone and their mother has posted their philosophy on formulating a starting five and how substitutions work. Some think we should go KP-draft style: BPA at each position..others think we need to mix and match to maximize "chemistry"...yet others seem to think this is hockey and focus more on the 2nd unit. The starting line-up is pretty much set whether you agree with it or not: Blake, Roy, Batum, L-Train, Oden. Now I want to hear what everyone's thoughts are on what changes Nate should make to minutes and his substitution pattern from last year. I'll start:

Dear Nate:

Starting lineups: Don't make rash decisions. Don't play with peoples' minds and change things at the last minute. Let them settle into their roles and grow comfortable there.

Bench: Don't play white unit black unit. Sub one or two players at a time and when they are needed. This isn't hockey.

Rudy: Experiment with Rudy as the "PG" in lineups as planned-but make sure there's another offensive minded ball handler on the court-read: Miller, Bayless, Roy.

Webster: bench him until he has his legs back.

Bayless: let him in the game if we have a 10+ point lead. Its the least you could do.

Give More Minutes: Oden, Rudy, Bayless, Andre (in addition to sergio's mins)

Give Less Minutes: Roy, Aldridge, Blake, Joel

About the same minutes: Batum, Outlaw

Last and most importantly, if nothing else:

Oden: Don't pull Oden at the end of the game when he has 5 fouls. If your not going to reinsert him as was the case last year, then let him play until he fouls out. He's better than Joel. Period.

What are your thoughts? Next on the docket will be strategery: what offensive/defensive schematic changes would benefit the team.

1 recs | Comment 34 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

First!

Nice job. I agree with everything except – please Nate, put Travis, our one-trick pony, out to pasture…

by Visionary2 on Oct 24, 2009 10:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

there is no wy Outlaw can play 25 minutes a game this year if you want to give more minutes to Bayless and Rudy.

I agree with most of what you’re saying though. At least until the playoffs, where we will likely see a rotation of Blake, Roy, Batum, Lamarcus, Greg, Rudy, Andre, and not much other major minutes…assuming there is no talent consolidation trade.

by dario argento on Oct 24, 2009 11:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You forgot about Webster,

we might need his shooting.

by lethaldose on Oct 24, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

1 team, 2 units and a bench

I would find it wonerfull if Nate started 1 unit for the first quarter and another unit for the 2 nd quarter. using the rest as a bench for both units. I understand the unconventionallity of this idea, but can you not see the advantages, that 2 units can bring. This is what I would like to see, both units playing all out the 1st quarter starter not only compete against the other team but the 2nd quarter unit. So a unit would be judged by the leed they gain upon the other team. Think 1st quarter score, verse 2nd quarter score. At half time let any ajustments be made if needed. But it would be great for Miller to be able to lead a unit as talented as Greg, Rudy, Martel, and Travis. I really believe that the extra competition could bring out the best in our team. Plus running the units in quarter streaches allows for conditioning. While still letting player that need time to get their game together. Alot of teams say that their bench could start for other teams, but I believe in the case of our second quarter unit this could prove that statement.

by prof.mike on Oct 24, 2009 1:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

im sorry but i feel like this is not hockey...

you don’t run two lineups. you sub in backups when your starters are tired, and then you bring back the starters when they can take another run. Think about it this way: your goal is to maximize the talent out there at all times and there is nothing beyond the current game. In other words, think playoffs. In the regular season, backups may help but in the playoffs-how useful was our ‘depth’? Answer: not very.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Oct 24, 2009 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I pretty much agree with everything you said.

I also think people underestimate the importance of drawing fouls.

08-09 Free Throws Attempted
Roy: 505
Miller: 409
Aldridge: 334
Outlaw: 242
Oden: 226
Przybilla: 169
Fernandez: 143
Bayless: 103
Blake: 75

Foul% PER Possesion
Oden: 23%
Przybilla: 22%
Bayless: 18%
Roy: 14%
Miller: 13%
Aldridge: 11%
Outlaw: 10%
Fernandez: 6%
Blake: 2%

Blake is just really, really, not getting it done. There’s no reason he should be taking any of Miller’s minutes.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 24, 2009 3:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No reason?

Blake is just really, really, not getting it done. There’s no reason he should be taking any of Miller’s minutes.

Greg Oden is really, really, not getting it done from the three-point line. Take him out too!

My point being, can you really take one statistic and say a player is “not getting it done” overall. Blake is supposed to do a couple of things — shooting and passing — while Roy works the lane. He’s doing fine at that. It’s very possible that Blake makes Roy better while Miller makes Roy worse. There’s your reason.

by Kaboomm on Oct 24, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah.

Miller doesn’t make Roy worse, just like Tony Parker (terrible 3 point shooter) doesn’t make Manu Ginobli worse. Just like Rajon Rondo doesn’t make Paul Pierce worse.

It’s all a matter of getting used to each other and tailoring the offense to work with two penetrators instead of one. That’s Nate McMillan’s job. Greg Popovich made it work, Doc Rivers made it work, but somehow it’s impossible for the Blazers to do it? Blake does one thing really well, and that’s all fine and good, but it still doesn’t excuse the fact that he doesn’t draw fouls at all. The only “PG” who drew less fouls per possession last season was Eddie House.

Do I think drawing fouls is more important than making threes? Of course I do. The team that scores the most free throws is the eventual winner in 70 percent of games. That’s a high school statistic mind you, but I imagine it’s similar in the NBA. Blake has no buisness taking Miller’s minutes because what Blake does is less valuable than what Miller does.

Not to mention that Miller is one of the best rebounding point guards in the game. The team that recovers the higher number of rebounds is the winner 65 percent of the time. Again a high school statistic, but applicable none the less.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 24, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Totally and completely agree

with the above…

by lethaldose on Oct 24, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I completely disagree

As of right now, Brandon plays better with Blake on the floor, not Miller. So therefore, Miller makes Roy worse. That is fact for the time being. That does not mean though this situation wont change, or that it is either Miller or Roys fault. It just means that Roy and Blake have been playing together for a while and they know how to play to eachothers strengths. Miller and Roy have not figured out how to do that yet, and until they do, Blake is the better option at point guard. I expect that to change pretty quickly though; Both Miller and Roy are extremely talented players and there is no reason that they cant figure out how to coexist.

Also, Blake will not be taking minutes from anybody, they were his minutes to start with, not Millers.

Drawing fouls is very important, but not a necessity for a point guard. Portland should get to the line a lot more this season, but I have a feeling it will have more to do with Oden (and hopefully Aldridge) and not so much to do with the point guard.

I probably sound like a Blake homer, but I am not. I want Miller in the starting unit as soon as he can play as effectively as Blake does with the starting unit, but not before then.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 24, 2009 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do you know Miller makes Roy worse?

First of all, you haven’t seen every preseason game. Even if you had, it’s still just a preseason game and probably doesn’t mean a whole lot. Saying that Miller makes Roy worse is waaaaay premature.

Second, Blake started 6 out of 8 games, meaning Roy was bad even though he primarily started next to Blake. If anything the fact that he only had one good game out of five starting next to Blake gives more credibility to Miller starting.

Third, drawing fouls is very important for a PG. Can you show me an elite PG that has a low foul%? Nope. They don’t exist.

Foul% of WC starting PG’s.
Russell Westbrook: 14%
Derron Williams: 13%
Chancey Billups: 13%
Chris Paul: 11%
Tony Parker: 11%
Monta Ellis: 9%
Mike Conley: 9%
Baron Davis: 7%
Beno Udrih: 7%
Aaron Brooks: 6%
Steve Nash: 5%
Jason Kidd: 5%
Derrick Fisher: 5%
Steve Blake: 2%

Blake draws less than HALF as many fouls as Derrick FIscher. He’s by far the worst starting PG in the West at drawing fouls. This is inexcusable. The Blazers will never, ever win a championship with Blake starting.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 24, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The point is not so much that Miller makes Roy worse

Its that Blake and Roy play better together. You could definately draw the conclusion that Roy was playing bad with Blake as well, but Roy and Blake playing together has been proven to be affective. Even though Miller is a better point guard, Blake plays better with Roy. I dont have to see a single game to know that; Roy and Blake have been playing together for a lot longer than a few weeks.

Blake does not need to draw fouls to be effective, he helps the team in other ways. The foul problem is an issue with the entire team, not just Blake.

Also, the Blazers winning a ring has very little to do with who the point guard is. The big 3 are Oden, Aldridge, and Roy. If those three are playing as good as all of them can play, the Blazers could win a ring with Blake as the starting point guard.

We dont have an elite point guard and we dont really need one. What team has an elite player at every position?

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 24, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also,

If drawing fouls is so important for our point guard, then screw Miller and Blake, put in Bayles. He could probably draw more fouls than Blake and Miller combined.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 24, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He can't draw more fouls than both combined.

Miller draws fouls on 13% of his possessions. Bayless draws fouls on 18%, which is really quite impressive, but not twice as many as Miller.

If Bayless improves significantly on defense then he may well end up taking Blake’s spot. His foul% is super impressive, and probably the only reason he’s still in the league.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 24, 2009 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait

I said that he could draw more fouls than both combined, which you just proved with your stats. Millers 13 plus Blakes 2 equals 15 which is less than Bayles’ 18. Obviously drawing fouls are not so important, or bayles would be the starter.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 24, 2009 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My bad.

It’s late and for some reason I thought you meant twice as many fouls combined.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 24, 2009 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

its cool, I tend to screw up a lot of comments when it gets late.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 25, 2009 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

the foul problem is only an issue with Blake. Everyone else on the team, except perhaps Rudy, is drawing fouls at either an acceptable or excellent rate.

Roy and Blake have NOT been proven to play effectively together. We’ve had serious issues with perimeter defense, which has a whole lot to do with Blake. It wouldn’t be a problem if Blake was producing on the offensive end, but he’s not. He rates in the bottom end of starting point guards in player efficiency.

There is no statistical measure to suggest that Blake is anything but below average for a starting PG. Whatever chemistry advantages Blake brings are totally negated by his other shortcomings.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 24, 2009 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could be wrong,

and I am way to lazy to find the stats, but I believe that portland was a lot closer to one of the worst teams at getting to the line than than one of the best. The blame can not fall on Blake alone.

Roy and Blake IS proven unless you consider last year unsuccessful? But to me, 54 wins and having the second best record in the west seems like at least somewhat of a successful season.

Fisher is on the lower end of your stats and LA won it all…….

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 24, 2009 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fisher still draws more than TWICE as many fouls as Blake.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 25, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep

But it is still a pretty low percentage in comparison, and LA over came that obstacle. So I dont think it is impossible to win with Blake. I definitely agree that it will make it a lot easier to win with a more capable point guard, but it is far from impossible to do it without one.

Over all, I believe that Miller needs to be a big part of the team for the Blazers to take the next step, but I am suggesting that maybe the Blazers will win a few more games if they slowly work Miller in with the starting unit. The west is going to be so close this season that if throwing Miller in the mix all at once costs the team a few wins because of chemistry issues, then maybe Blake keeping a bigger role for a while is essential. Besides, Miller needs a little extra time to get his conditioning up to par :)

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 25, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure.

Not impossible, but very difficult.

The easiest way to improve the Blazers is to improve Blake. Suddenly we are winning the free throw battle, putting their bigs in foul trouble. That’s huge because it trickles down to everyone. Oden’s job is easier because suddenly he’s playing against backups or at least starters who are afraid of committing their third or fourth foul. It’s a big deal.

I don’t mind Blake starting so much, if it takes Miller a while to get used to everything then I’m fine with it. He’s a notoriously slow starter anyway, so we won’t miss him as much during the start of the season.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 25, 2009 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yah,

Miller is going to be much more important in the post season than in the regular season. Hopefully Oden will be getting opposing bigs in foul trouble like he was doing in preseason. Again, I am way to lazy to go find stats, but Oden was shooting around 6-10 free throws a game during preseason… That alone will be huge!!

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 25, 2009 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Foul% of WC starting PG’s.
Russell Westbrook: 14%
Derron Williams: 13%
Chancey Billups: 13%
Chris Paul: 11%
Tony Parker: 11%
Monta Ellis: 9%
Mike Conley: 9%
Baron Davis: 7%
Beno Udrih: 7%
Aaron Brooks: 6%
Steve Nash: 5%
Jason Kidd: 5%
Derrick Fisher: 5%
Steve Blake: 2%

Most efficient offenses in the Western Conference: Portland (Blake) 113.9 pts/100 possessions, Phoenix (Nash) 113.6 pts/100 possessions, LAL (Fisher) 112.8 pts/100 possessions, Dallas (Kidd) 110.5 pts/100 possessions.

It is also worth noting that the Thunder (Westbrook) had the 2nd least efficient offense in the Western Conference.

by trk on Oct 25, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

Blake draws less than half the fouls those guys do. If he was twice as good at drawing fouls then maybe he’d be a decent starting PG.

I agree with your point. 5% is probably acceptable. 2% is not.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 25, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point is that you are using abilty to draw fouls as your primary method of evaluating the worth of PGs without first showing that it is desirable for PGs to draw lots of fouls

There is a negative correlation between NBA team offensive efficiency and starting PG foul drawing rate. In other words, teams that have starting PGs who don’t draw many fouls are more successful offensively than teams with PGs who do draw fouls. How can you say a PG is useless because he doesn’t draw many fouls when PGs who don’t draw fouls tend to be more successful than PGs who do?

by trk on Oct 25, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For an NBA PG, shooting 3's is more important than drawing fouls

If you look at the top 5 most efficient offenses from last year, all of them had good 3-point shooters starting at PG (out of those 5 teams the starting PG who was worst at 3-point shooting PG was Derek Fisher at 39.7%). None of those 5 PGs were particularly adept at drawing fouls. I don’t think that that is purely a coincidence.

by trk on Oct 25, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No it's not.

First of all, Derek Fisher had a down season and he was still more than twice as effective as Blake at drawing fouls. Three years ago he took 307 free throw attempts in a single season. Last season Blake took 75.

Second, I don’t care about how “efficient” an offense is. If that was the most important thing then the Blazers would have won a championship last season. I care about winning. The numbers are perfectly clear about this.

In the past 18 years, no starting PG has drawn as few fouls as Steve Blake and still won a championship.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 25, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

John Paxton?

PGs who draw as few fouls as Blake are pretty rare (since he is pretty much has the lowest rate of drawing fouls in the league for a PG), so even finding 1 like Blake who won a championship is somewhat surprising. You could easily turn it around and say that in the last 20 years, no PG has lead the leagues PGs in drawing fouls and won a championship. In fact, in the last 19 years Billups and Parker are really the only PGs who are above average at drawing fouls who have won a championship.

by trk on Oct 25, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Parker won three championships, so I think that says a lot.

Two of Fishers championships came when he was much better at drawing fouls. It’s only recently that he’s started to slow down.

Also, Phil Jackson runs a completely different offense that doesn’t really feature a ton of pick and role stuff with a traditional PG. I wouldn’t count any PG in that system as a good example. Unless the Blazers start running the triangle it’s just comparing apples and oranges.

It’s not just that Blake is bad at drawing fouls, it’s that he incredibly , shockingly, almost historically bad at drawing fouls. It’s especially disconcerting considering the new hand-check rules. In THIS day and age, there’s no reason for a PG to have such a low foul%.

John Paxon is a one year exception at a time when it was easier to guard the perimeter. Plus he played next to the greatest player of all time. I think Roy’s great, but he’s not at Jordan’s level yet.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 25, 2009 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

“Also, Phil Jackson runs a completely different offense that doesn’t really feature a ton of pick and role stuff with a traditional PG. I wouldn’t count any PG in that system as a good example. Unless the Blazers start running the triangle it’s just comparing apples and oranges.”

The Blazers do not use a pg for pick and roles either, they use Roy for that. Blake is used more as someone to spread the D so that Roy has all the room he wants to do what ever he wants (which he does). Blake is basically used to bring the ball up the floor, and shoot 3’s. The offense is designed that way by Nate… Its kind of the same way that they use the small forward to go stand in the corner and wait… Blake is also VERY good at getting the ball to Roy and Aldridge and getting them easy buckets…. He connects a LOT with Roy cutting back door and hitting Aldridge when he slips the pick.

I just wanted to also bring up the game where Blake had all of those assists! what was it like 14…. Blake is the kind of point guard that we need for this offense… I really dont care about the drawing fouls, that is really not a serious issue. His inability to guard the quicker and stronger point guards is the problem….But Miller cant guard the quick guards either.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 25, 2009 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Blake did not have 14 assists.

Home scorekeepers are notorious for padding assist stats. Some of those assists were iffy and some of them basically nonexistent.

Blake is the kind of point guard that we need for this offense… I really dont care about the drawing fouls, that is really not a serious issue.

You should care about drawing fouls. It is a very, very serious issue. Way more important than hitting a couple three’s a game.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 25, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Greg is going to be the reason we draw more fouls this year

The way Nate runs the offense, we dont need Blake to draw fouls, that is not his game. Roy, Aldridge and Oden will have that covered. Also Miller will come off the bench and draw a few fouls. Drawing fouls is not going to be an issue this season.

"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"

"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski

by jpaulson on Oct 25, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs