A Look Ahead at the First Month’s Schedule

Many Blazers fans seemed to be worried about how the team will gel at the beginning of the season. These worries are somewhat legitimate, considering the team’s shaky performance in the preseason and some of the possible issues that could arise from adding new players into an already deep and talented rotation. However, I think people may be missing an important element as the Blazers enter the regular season: the opening month of the season features an extremely favorable and manageable schedule.

Let me try to break it down for you. Through the end of December, the Blazers play a total of ten home games and nine road games. Of the ten home games, one is against an elite team (San Antonio), two are against very good teams (Denver, Atlanta), three are against average to good teams (Houston, Detroit, Chicago), and four are against bad teams (Minnesota twice, New Jersey, Memphis). Of these home games, there is only one back to back, and that is a very winnable home game against Minnesota after playing Golden State on the road. There is no reason that we cannot go 9-1 in these games.

Now for the road games. Of the nine road games, zero are against elite teams, three are against very good teams (Atlanta, New Orleans, Utah), three are against average to good teams (Houston, Charlotte, Golden State), and three are against bad teams (Oklahoma City, Memphis, Minnesota). Of these away games, there are three back to backs, including Houston/Oklahoma City, Memphis/Minnesota,  and New Orleans/Charlotte, the first and third of which could prove to be tricky. However, both are manageable, as we get the more winnable game on the second night of the back to back in each case. I think we can go 6-3 in these road games.

With this in mind, here are my predictions for the first month of the season. I tried to be as realistic as possible, but I have to admit that I have a pretty good feeling about this team despite having some worries now and again. Hopefully I don’t come off as a homer, but with this very favorable schedule I think we can have 15 wins by the end of December. Here goes:

Games                                 Prediction           Explanation (If Necessary)

• Tue 27 vs Houston       Win, 1-0
  
• Thu 29 vs Denver          Win, 2-0            They won't win if and when Greg Oden brings the rain again.
  
• Sat 31 @ Houston        Win, 3-0            Fortunately for us these aren’t exactly last years playoff Rockets :)
  
• Sun 01 @ Okl City        Win, 4-0             2nd of a back to back could be tricky, but we should get this one.
  
• Tue 03 vs Atlanta          Win, 5-0
• Fri 06 vs San Ant.         Loss , 5-1           Could go either way but the Spurs are pretty nasty this year.
  
• Sun 08 vs Minn.            Win, 6-1
  
• Tue 10 @ Memphis     Win, 7-1
  
• Wed 11 @ Minn            Win, 8-1
  
• Fri 13 @ N Orleans     Loss, 8-2          I don't think we can get one in New Orleans.
  
• Sat 14 @ Charlotte      Win, 9-2            Yes they did beat us there in OT last year, but we’ll get this one.
  
• Mon 16 @ Atlanta        Loss, 9-3
  
• Wed 18 vs Detroit         Win, 10-3
  
• Fri 20 @ Gol State        Win, 11-3         They’ll be just returning from a very tough Eastern road trip.
  
• Sat 21 vs Minn               Win, 12-3
  
• Mon 23 vs Chicago      Win, 13-3          They might actually put up a fight this year, who knows :)
  
• Wed 25 vs N Jersey     Win, 14-3
  
• Fri 27 vs Memphis       Win, 15-3
  
• Sat 28 @ Utah              Loss, 15-4        Salt Lake City is tough and we don’t win there often.

Well, there you have it. I would also like to note that a schedule like this one allows for momentum to build since it features runs of very winnable games in between scattered games that are tougher. This could be an important confidence builder, since we could plausibly have separate winning streaks of three, five, and six respectively. Also, if we do happen to win a big road game watch out, because with the relatively benign home schedule this team could go on a tear in a hurry. I feel that at the very least this schedule will allow this team to find itself and build confidence early in the season. They're going to need it, because believe me December will be a whole different story.

I would love to hear your feedback, thoughts, and predictions for the first month of the season. I hope this at least partially alleviates some of your worries about this team in the early going. Color me overconfident if you must, but I think that November will be a great month to be a Blazer.