Free Throw Defense
by Norsktroll on Oct 21, 2009 1:27 PM PDT
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PrintThe game is literally on the line. Fans are banging thunder sticks together, screaming their lungs out, hollering, stomping, trying to be the "6th man" and distract the opposing player at the foul line. Oh please, if he would miss at least one of those crucial free throws... Sometimes it works, usually it doesn't. The odd thing is: For the Trail Blazers, it doesn't work more often than for about any other NBA team. Why is that?
Last season, the Portland Trail Blazers were the worst team in the league at "defending" the free throw. No, not at sending the opposing team to the line. There the Blazers were actually the 4th best, giving opposing teams just 21.7 attempts per game (best was San Antonio with 19.9. Worst was Milwaukee with 30.2). Yup, despite pundits arguing that Greg Oden was fouling people like a madman, many fans dissatisfied with the constant switching on pick and rolls, and the at times lackadaisical defense the Blazers perimeter players displayed against quick opponents, fouls resulting in free throw attempts really wasn't such a big issue. Then again, that is a total number not taking the pace of the game into account, and pace has a lot to do with it. The Blazers (and e.g. Spurs) play quite slow, limiting the possessions for themselves but also for the opponent.
Where the Blazers really had trouble was with the free throw percentage the opposing players made. A league-worst 80.3 percent during the regular season (oddly enough in the playoffs it was much much better, at 75.4%). The best team in this regard were the Houston Rockets, "allowing" just 75.4 percent during the season. Against Portland, players somehow don't seem to get distracted at all, calmly making their shots.
Trail Blazers "free throw defense" vs opposing teams in recent history:
2008-09: 21.7 attempts per game against, 80.3 percent made (league worst)
2007-08: 22.3 attempts per game against, 76.6 percent made (tied for 7th worst)
2006-07: 26.3 attempts per game against, 77.8 percent made (league worst)
2005-06: 24.0 attempts per game against, 76.0 percent made (tied for 3rd worst)
Now, what is the issue here? Is there a concrete reason for this? We have to assume the free throw line always has the same distance from the hoop in all arenas (give or take a millimeter), the hoop has the same height, lighting is similar, etc. Are opposing teams more relaxed against slower teams, thus allowing them to hit a better percentage, and out of breath against faster teams? There was reason to assume that to be the case in the 2007-08 season, when a run-and-gun Denver team (also playing home games at a high altitude) had the best free throw percentage against it (73% on 24.7 attempts). But last year they still played under similar conditions, and suddenly they were the 7th worst team at "defending" the free throw (78.2% on 27.2 attempts). Other "fast" teams were also among the worst free throw defense teams, e.g. Philadelphia and Golden State. Pace doesn't seem to be the deciding factor.
Maybe it has to do with who gets fouled (I didn't find direct statistics breaking this down for individual players or positions). Obviously guards tend to hit a higher percentage than most big men. Yet teams with guards and wings that have a reputation as good defenders were about as likely to be among the worst as among the best free throw defenses last season. E.g. the Bulls were the 4th worst, the Mavericks the 2nd worst, the usually hard-nosed Pistons and Celtics just middle of the pack. As said above the Rockets were the best, followed by the Lakers, Magic, and - oops - the Kings, a team not exactly known to play stellar perimeter defense or defense in general.
What can we take from this? All in all it could be an anomaly with fluctuations of a few percentage points well within the statistical control limits. Yet those few percent can matter. Stat guru John Hollinger noticed that the Blazers were bad free throw "defenders" in his season preview (ESPN Insider), but couldn't offer an explanation either. He didn't seem to have done a lot of research on the topic yet just calling it "unlucky".
In one respect, however, they were horribly unlucky. Portland opponents shot 80.3 percent from the line last season, far exceeding the league average of 77.1 percent -- no other team's opponents shot this well. It seems unrealistic to blame this on bad free throw defense. Relative to the league average, Portland lost 58 points because of this, which is worth about two games in the standings.
So if it's just a fluke, the only really weird thing is that the Blazers have recently always been among the worst teams in "FT percentage against" as noted above. Rose Garden crowd, to help the team maybe you need to change your routines to distract free throw shooters better. Noise seems to be more relevant for distraction than movement (as e.g. shown on Sports Science - though the show is not all that scientific). Irregular movement like everybody behind the basket suddenly leaning left is arguably better than cheerleaders waving their pom-pons and fans banging those thunder sticks in a predictable pattern - and it's a background image and sound the players are used to. Any other good ideas? And no, please no more pictures of guy in his Speedo trunks dancing (backstory behind that with video) Or now that I think about it...
If it should be true that the players and fans can't do much about it, let's hope for an abberation in the positive direction this season.
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Blazers don´t move the ball in offense and they don´t move off the ball, allowing defenders to keep more energy.
A rested player is a a better FT shooter than a tired player.
is this true?
is there evidence that, e.g., 1st quarter FT shooting is better than 4th quarter FT shooting? It makes sense but I’m not convinced.
There is probably higher concentration in the 4th
so I’m not sure you could measure it statistically by comparing. Too many variables. Your first quarter is mostly played by starters, and starters probably are better FT shooters, on average.
The Denver case would appear to indicate that fatigue is not the driving force here. Might be a factor, though.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
yeah
I’d just like to see evidence before I subscribe to amlmart’s (very plausible but not totally convincing) theory.
The best measure
would be to look at several years of data comparing pace to opponent FT%, I suppose.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
The problem with that is a player like Shaq
could singlehandedly throw off your curve!
"BEER IS LIVING PROOF THAT GOD LOVES US"
- Benjamin Franklin-
I'd love to see the data of the players who defend Rudy
Especially in comparison to other defenders. Obviously Rudy hardly ever stops moving. It sounds reasonable enough that if you were chasing a guy around you’d have a harder time making free throws later on.
by Seven06Renault on Oct 21, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
What if you could hear a pin drop???
The Rose Garden production crew needs to help orchestrate some UNPREDICTABLE fan behavior that will be more distracting than the typical fan noise, thunder sticks, etc.
For example, when a video of a pin dropping shows up on the big screen this will signal the fans to be absolutely quiet while Kobe steps up to the line. Maybe for his second attempt the fans behind the basket will sway side to side in unison. Then stand up, sit down. The motions can be done both silently and with crowd noise. The crowd will get their signal from the big screen as to what to do during that free throw attempt.
Don’t you think this would be more of a distraction, plus more engaging for the fans?
by mlsinpdx on Oct 21, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
I have ALWAYS thought this would freak some guys out.
So…how do we make this happen…. and who is in charge of making sure the drunk guy in your section toes the proverbial line?
RoadBlazer
There are two options that may work effectively for the fans
Psychologically we need to have an effect on the player that can not be easily diffused. One option, as suggested below, is to base the crowds response on how many seconds are left, sometimes being silent, others being loud. I believe the best option though is for everyone behind the basket to wave from straight up, to the left, all leaning over. While the entire rose garden chants. LEFT LEFT LEFT. One short word, it is very hard for the player to tune it out, and will make it harder to focus. Even thinking about it for a second, will make it much harder not to shoot loot, over compensate, or end up with a hitch in the shot. In the event they do miss left, it will be in their head.
by lurtsman on Oct 21, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Genius!
No matter how hard you try, if someone is shouting a specific direction at you like that, some part of your mind is thinking about it, even if you don’t want it to. And the irregular movements would also be really unusual and thus, distracting I would think. Love it.
Proud Blazers Edge lurker since 2007
Great idea
You could also base it on whether the seconds on the clock were odd or even. Or the shooter’s jersey number was odd or even.
oh yeah, rec'd
I’m a big fan of this experimental trickery. I’d like to see us try getting the whole arena as silent as possible for an opposing team’s FT attempts, and relegate the duty of noisemaker to ONE fan (preferably close to the shooter) who gets to yell whatever he or she wants. Or instead, having the crowd chant in unison at unpredictable times during the shooter’s routine. Anything other than the unintelligible roar that becomes little more than background noise and which every NBAer is used to.
by SabonisBonus on Oct 21, 2009 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Another great reason to run
Not only does it imporve the pace of the game (which is how we can keep people happier with limited minutes – more shots per minute), but you are correct, animart, tired players don’t shoot as well… free throws or from the floor…
Run!!!
I missed that. Thanks for the nice spreadsheet, I didn't want to go back farther than most players on the team.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tbNbIsZqqP4Nz-O_LLabFaw&output=html
Supports the theory that for whatever reason the Blazers have been below average in that regard for a while.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
Are tingeyga's numbers and yours done with all games or just games at home ?
Maybe other teams are just very good FT shooters at their home and not the Blazers
My numbers were taken straight from basketball-reference.com
they include all games. I have no idea what the home/away splits would look like.
really interesting stuff. someone do a statistical test on how likely the Blazers bad FT defense over the past 4 years is just random.
It will be interesting to follow this year.
Worth pointing out that the Blazers being 4th best at preventing FT attempts was influenced by the slow pace. On a per possession basis, the Blazers are likely closer to average in that department.
I think it has to do with concentration.
I remember shooting free throws better when people were yelling at me and wanting me to miss. I wonder if there is a measurement of how long guys take on their free throws in the 4th vs. 1-3. I have noticed that when the bangers start banging, and waving that guys seem to take longer gathering themselves on the foul line.
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
To further support this thinking
The Blazers played an inordinate number of close games when opposing players may have concentrated more as they knew every free throw mattered. That would be an interesting study to correlate the free-throw shooting to close games.
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
Two possible explanations
If the explanation is something more than just bad luck (which I’m not at all sure of), it’s probably a combination of these two factors:
1) Unbalanced schedule. All teams don’t play the same teams the same number of times. It may be that the Blazers played the best free-throw shooting teams more often than others teams did.
2) It’s possible that the Blazers fouled guards more often than other teams do. This could be due to bad pick-and-roll defense or possibly because they were involved in more close games (thus requiring more intentional fouling of ball-handlers at the end of the game).
Who they foul.
Quick quards get fouled like crazy because our perimiter defense is so poor. Bigger centers, who are usually poor free throw shooters, don’t get fouled as much (I’m guess) because Joel and Oden are good post defenders against those types of players.
Aldridge is also very good at not fouling, so that probably means less PF are shooting foul shots.
by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 21, 2009 2:36 PM PDT reply actions
Are Rose and Hinrich and Gordon poor perimeter defenders? As said in the post the Bulls weren't much better last year.
In 2006-07 they were the best in the league with 73%. One year later the 8th worst with 76.6. Now the 4th worst with 78.6.
Was it the players? Was it the defensive schemes the coach played (Skiles)? Then why did Milwaukee become worse under him from 7th best to 9th worst to 3rd worst?
I suppose it can be a factor along with other things, but all in all it still seems fluky.
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
Yes.
Rose and Gordon are both incredibly bad perimeter defender.
In 2006-2007 they had Hinrich Full time at PG, with Deng and Sefolosha both providing excellent perimeter defense. Of course Scott Skiles was their coach in 06-07 and was fired a year later. After he left the perimeter defense went to hell, so it’s no real surprise that they went from first to worst in a year. I don’t think Milwaukee has the personnel to play great perimeter defense. Before he only had one weak perimeter defender, in Milwaukee he had three.
Redd + Ridnour + Sessions + Jefferson < Hinrich + Deng + Sefolosha + Gordon
I’m sure there are a bunch of factors, but there’s a huge disparity in FT% between guards and bigs, so I assume that would have the biggest impact. It’s a very interesting question.
by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 21, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions
replace the thunder sticks with skinny balloons
Everybody has seen the endzone fans waving skinny balloons in a sea-anenome pattern. Creating a random, 3 dimensional background could affect the opposing shooter’s depth perception more than 100 fans wapping thunder sticks together like so many angry dragonfly wings. (Another suggestion is to replace the corporate types who sit in the endzone with a “keep Portland weird” crowd of distracting human curios)
The other “defense” against FTs is the Blazer players, and their ability to “trash talk” the opposing FT shooter. Mind games and “gamesmanship” were Mo Lucas’ expertise when he was playing, he needs to step his game up as a “intimidation coach” now that his bladder is healthy, again
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
You're on the right track about irregular movement being like white noise to a free-throw shooter, Norsk.
A far more effective approach would be for the crowd, especially those behind the basket, to sit perfectly still until the shooter begins to launch his free-throw, then erupt into cheers, or gasp in unison and point at something behind the shooter, or burst into laughter. Or Paul Allen and KP could start doing the Macarena.
Yeah I agree. Getting fans behind the backboard to do some different stuff would likely help.
The problem, however is going to be getting the bourgeoisie down in the 100’s to do interesting stuff. Every time I sit low I am always amazed at how little the average person down there cheers as compared to the proletariat up in the 300 level.
by dario argento on Oct 21, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
What is the best way to throw a shooter off
I think a quiet crowd that burst into Kumbaya would definately work. I don’t think there is anything more annoying that everyone already knows. And it would be easy to sway gently to.
by NWfan on Oct 21, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Barry Manilowwwww
I don’t think there is anything more annoying that everyone already knows
or maybe some Polka music
perhaps a Simon Cowell critique of their FT style?
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Seems like it should be possible to determine the FG% of the players fouled by the Blazers
I can think of a very straight forward way to determine if it’s caused by selection or environmental factors. Selection being who the Blazers foul and environmental factors being things like pace, noise, time when fouled, and body odor.
Love the speedo guy backstory
Do the Cameron Crazies have much effect? They’ve got nice synchronization – which would seem to be the only difference maker.
Vu ja de?
Yeah I didn’t see the JD discussion. And who reads that anyway :)
"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard
nobody goes the the JD, anymore
it’s too crowded
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Seriously, I have a job...
I can’t imagine how little I’d get done if I read the JD… It’s like potato chips – you just can’t have ‘em in the house, or you’ll eat ’em!
I hope someone is able to get this going in the Rose Garden
Last season a friend of mine thought of using sync’d routines to surprise and distract the FT shooter. I really think that all silent until the shooter starts to release the the ball would be good… And coordinated movements with sound also great. Combination of the two even better. Heck the possibilities are endless. The crowd would find it fun & entertaining, and the guys at Sports Center would love it too.
Maybe someone could make up some easy routines, print them on paper, and get them passed around at the game.
Could be fun.
I think it has to be the players fouled.
You went automatically to the idea that guards shoot better free throws, and focused on the Blazers perimeter D, which makes sense, but doesn’t seem to explain the numbers. But I dont think this is the way to look at it.
To me, the thing which would make the biggest difference in WHO is shooting fts against you is in situations where a team fouls an opposing player on purpose in close late game situations. Usually, the opposing team knows this is coming, and gets the ball in the hands of their best ft shooter. So, it would seem to follow that the more times a team fouls on purpose, the better overall percentage of the players they foul.
Given the fact that the Blazers have had so many close and come-from-behind games in the past few years, and that Nate will continue to foul the opposing team all the way to the end (“never giving up”) it wouldn’t surprise me if the Blazers fouled on purpose for possession in late game situations more often than most teams—therefore fouling the opposing team’s best ft shooter more often than most teams. I think this could certainly account for the discrepancy.
Maybe there are stats relating to how many times a team fouls another team on purpose for possession? I would suspet that there would be a correlation between that number and opponent ft %, and I would further suspect that the Blazers would be high on that list.
by TimG on Oct 21, 2009 10:32 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Recced for intersesting idea
just could be true.
Disclaimer: everything I know about basketball I learned on Blazersedge.
A crazy idea here
Would be if the end zone seats in the lower bowl became a sort of general admission that would work together to distract the free throw shooter. (Kinda of like the Timber Army.)
Heck, treat it like soccer fans would, with chants, movements, maybe a fight or two and the occasional flare. That would definitely help with freethrow defense.
How about this..
Those small chalkboards that kids have, hundreds of fingernails screaching in unison. I know it makes me cringe.
Screaaaeeech!!
I did a very simple statistical test
The Blazers were 2.4 standard deviations worse than the mean in terms of FT defense this year. If we assume a normal distribution, the chances of a defense being that bad or worse based purely on randomness is 0.79%. Using the same formula, the chances of an FT D being as bad or worse as the Blazers in ‘06-’07 is 1.5%. The likelihood of a D as bad as the Blazers in ‘05-’06 is 8.8%.
I’m not going to take the time to do a more complex test that looks into the likelihood of having such a bad FT D two times out of three years (or 3 out of 4 including the less dramatic ‘05-’06), or an analysis that is more robust and doesn’t assume a normal distribution, but I think its fair we are probably looking at something real here, and not just pure randomness.
The obvious solution
is to run the numbers.
How many free throws did each opposing player attempt against us in Portland? How many on the road? What percentage did each player shoot on FTs in home games? Away games?
Weighting by free throws attempted, calculate an expected percentage based on the average performance of the players we actually sent to the line, home and away. Compare this to actual results.
This should help factor out whether or not part or all of this picture is due to the players we are sending to the line. It would also help determine whether this is a home problem or a road problem.
Should be easy. The box scores are all on ESPN, and it shouldn’t be hard to set up a spreadsheet and paste them in. Of course, to determine an opposing player’s home and away percentages, you might have to paste in all his home results (you could subtract the total from his season total to get road results). I don’t think anyone breaks down FT% by home and away.
Should only take 50-60 hours or so. Any volunteers? Paul Allen should pay somebody to do this. If we learn something we can change, it could gain us a couple wins, which could make the difference in our seeding, which could make the difference between winning and losing a series. It’s cheaper than paying Patty Mills.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
Especially if it shows
that it isn’t the players that are shooting. You don’t change your whole style for something like this, or at least this alone. So if your style causes you to foul better shooters, you probably just live with it, and hope it changes as defenders get more experienced..
But if it isn’t that, and especially if it is bad in Portland, figure out why. You may not be able to do anything about stuff on the road.
At least try to understand it.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
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