How to get Bayless into the rotation

by UDUB on Oct 19, 2009 8:09 PM PDT Comment 32 comments

If Bayless continues to play as well as he has in the last few games, it's going to be difficult to watch him rack up DNPs when the season starts. The assumption has been that (barring injury) there just aren't enough guard minutes for Bayless to get any regular playing time, at least in non-blow out situations. He's the fifth guard. The odd man out.

But there is another option. We'll all know that Roy is capable of playing the SF, especially for limited stretches. He did that quite a bit last year when both Blake and Rudy were on the court. If Nate is willing to move Roy to the 3 for part of the game, he can play Bayless without sacrificing the minutes of the other three guards. If the Blazers continue to get spotty play from Outlaw and Webster, this option is going to look increasingly tempting to the coaching staff. At the moment, neither Outlaw nor Webster is playing very well offensively and they both look terrible defensively.

In addition to a demonstrated ability to drive to the hoop and get foul shots, Bayless brings a defensive intensity that none of the other guards do (and that only Batum among the SFs brings). There will be situations where that kind of defensive presence could prove significant. Personally, I'd be curious to see how a three guard lineup featuring Miller, Bayless, and Roy plays. I'm not sure I've ever seen a lineup with three penetrators of that skill on the floor at the same time. You would think they'd be able to pass it around and attack the weak link defensively. No team has three players that are good on-the-ball defenders.

I hope Nate uses these last few preseason games to test out a few more lineups. It's time to get creative and find ways to get Bayless some minutes. He deserves the chance.

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JB is a bright young man has got it figured out that

Nic gets minutes because he is a defensive ace,JB has the potential to be an above average defender and knows that is what he has to become to play on this team

by southern oregon on Oct 19, 2009 8:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Roy is not any kind of "forward"

First of all, Martell’s foot injury made it necessary for Nate to play Roy ad Rudy in the same lineup, alongside Blake. Roy has lost weight over the summer, and he told BT Smith on media day that he really didn’t like guarding bigger SFs.

That’s not to say that we’ve seen the end of the “3 guard” lineup. For instance, Blake, Miller and Roy were out there together last night, for awhile. But the matchups will have to dictate this, Nate is not going to force Brandon to defend SFs like ‘Melo. Not when he’s got Webster and Batum who are deserving of those SF minutes.

Nate said he likes Bayless’ scrappiness, and during the summer KP was also high on Jerryd and refused to include Rex in any deals. It’s hard to imagine Bayless getting enough PT while Blake and Rudy are around—and those two guys are also highly thought-of by Nate/KP—so that makes JB the “emergency” scrappy guard. He’s still saying all the “right” things, and when he gets on the court he busts his hump and seems to be getting better on defense (although with the replacement refs, who can tell?) So, as long as the team is winning and the other guards are healthy, it looks like all Rex has to look forward to is practice time and “garbage” minutes.

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 19, 2009 8:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Roy can match up against a lot of SFs in the league

When the opponent is going small, we could play Roy at the 3. Lots of teams use 3 guard lineups – us included – and in those 3 guard lineups Roy likely would play 3. I think he is better suited for it than Rudy.

I think we’ll see a lot of Blake/Rudy/Roy or Dre/Rudy/Roy. Jerryd/Rudy/Roy is less likely.

If Jerryd gets on the court, it will be because he is playing great D. We could use a PG that is a great defender and Jerryd is closer to that than either Blake or Miller are right now. If Jerryd busts his ass in practice and becomes a defensive specialist then I think Nate will get him on the floor in some situations. I can see a defensive line-up of:

Bayless
Roy
Batum
Aldridge or maybe Howard?/Prz?
Oden

Bayless is in to guard the other team’s PG. Roy runs point on offense and Jerryd is an effective SG.

That line-up only works if the other team is killing us with a top notch offensive PG that Brandon can’t match up against (CP3, Nash, or Aaron Brooks come to mind). Against the Lakers (Kobe) or Heat (Wade) you would be forced to have Roy match-up against the bigtime SG and put Miller in so that he can take some of the pressure of Roy at the other end.

by StuckeyDuck on Oct 20, 2009 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Roy plays any significant minutes at SF (that’s a huge if considering the SF logjam which your fanpost glosses over), it will be done in order to facilitate more minutes for Rudy.

I love Bayless too but I don’t see this scenario happening. Bayless will ride the pine until an injury or trade occurs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I&feature=channel_page

by The Cactus Leaguer on Oct 19, 2009 8:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I think you’re right and that we’ll likely see Rudy, Roy, and Miller playing together at the end of many games. I’d still like to see what Jerryd could do in this kind of lineup, though.

by UDUB on Oct 19, 2009 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not saying Roy is a forward

I’m just saying that he can play at the 3 for small stretches if necessary. And if Bayless continues to play better than Webster, playing Roy at the 3 for a few small stretches in order to get Bayless some minutes may be worth doing. I completely agree that it will depend on matchups and who the other team is playing at the SF spot, but many teams play smaller lineups and against those lineups Roy is more than capable of holding his own at the 3.

by UDUB on Oct 19, 2009 8:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Martell and Travis have not earned PT

Bayless has. Simple as that. Strict positions often times don’t matter as much when the bench guys are out there. Many teams have small benches. Of course, as most everyone has said, this will not work with every team, but I think JB will help the team more than either Martell or Travis (at least right now).

by zbrum on Oct 19, 2009 9:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No. The last few seasons clearly outweigh a few preseason games.

Martell and Travis have not earned PT

If Nate/KP had no memory of two years ago, when Martell started & contributed (including a 20 point quarter!), or the last several years, when Travis won multiple games by scoring when nobody else on the team could get their shot off, then you’re right.

Thankfully that’s not the case—an amnesiac front office would cause problems far beyond a talented second year player languishing on the bench a little more than he should.

by Marvin100 on Oct 19, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The team has gotten a lot stronger since then

The current Blazers bench is stronger than the starting unit from a few years ago.

by trk on Oct 19, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we're talking about Roy's rookie year, maybe

but let’s be honest: Blake, Rudy, Martell, Howard, and Joel are not a stronger team than Blake, Roy (1st year as an all star), 3rd year Webster, Aldridge, and Joel. Blake and Joel are largely a wash since they haven’t really made huge strides or declines in the past couple years. Martell is arguably better, but there’s no way Rudy or Howard now are anywhere near as good as Roy or LA were then.

by Royster on Oct 19, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lets be honest about it

Dre is a vast upgrade from Sergio no matter what they say at La Marca,Howard is much better than Channing and all 4 of last years rookies are no longer rookies and it is not crazy to expect all of them to be better this year+ Martell,this is a much stronger team

by southern oregon on Oct 19, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're not comparing the benches

The current Blazers bench is stronger than the starting unit from a few years ago.

Sergio is neither on the bench now nor was he starting then, so he doesn’t factor into the equation. The starters then were MUCH better than the bench is now.

by Royster on Oct 19, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Bayless gets minutes at SG, then Rudy will be the one affected, not Roy. Roy will get his minutes whether it comes from the PG, SG, or SF positions.

The Kings have the best bench I’ve seen. There are easily 14 guys on this team good enough for every bench in the league. Now if we could only get some starters, I’d totally jizz in my pants.

Kings fan

by dyshooter182 on Oct 19, 2009 9:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd like Bayless to get minutes, too.

Just not for the Blazers.

by TheTinfoil on Oct 19, 2009 10:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Boooo

"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard

by Norsktroll on Oct 20, 2009 2:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only way Bayless will get minutes

is if Oden eats him. then he will be on the court more…if somewhat digested.

"No disrespect to Jeff Blake"

by Eat Politicians on Oct 19, 2009 10:14 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

There is only so much playing time for someone whose only discernable talent is launching himself at the basket and chucking a brick.

Also, since when does defensive intensity equal good defense? Just sayin’.

by TheTinfoil on Oct 19, 2009 10:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

^he's not saying, he's just sayin'.

Kobe is my profile pic because of this beatdown I received.
Blake > Andre

by prezofdeath on Oct 19, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Steve is a very intense but still crappy defender

JB might turn out to be pretty good,too soon to tell

by southern oregon on Oct 19, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see defensive potential.

Hollinger thinks he’s got some untapped defensive talent. Some other people don’t. It just seems too early to tell.

by Nick Van Excellent on Oct 20, 2009 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If BRoy gets any minutes at the 3...

I really hope it’s because Rudy is getting minutes at the 2, not that Bayless is getting minutes at the 1…

by Visionary2 on Oct 19, 2009 11:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

How to get Bayless into the rotation?

Simple, really. Jerryd has to become better overall than Steve or Andre.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 20, 2009 12:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Or if Blake or Andre are hit with a meteor...

"No disrespect to Jeff Blake"

by Eat Politicians on Oct 20, 2009 2:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He already is, Nate just doesn't see it. Fire Nate!

This message was brought to you by the committee to fire Nate, with additional funding by the Blake the Fake fanclub.

"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard

by Norsktroll on Oct 20, 2009 2:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Flag

This is the “Fire KP” season. The “Fire Nate” season doesn’t officially begin for another week.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 20, 2009 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense and shooting are Bayless' ticket to the floor.

If he can hit a decent percentage from outside to go with his ability to get to the rim and the line, he is going to become an efficient scoring option off the bench. But the real secret is for Bayless to become our best PG defender. When Bayless’ strengths as a defender and supplemental scorer outweigh his current limited abilities as a distributor, he is going to get time.

Can Rudy and Roy help carry the playmaking duties when Bayless is on the floor? We don’t really know yet.

Based on the little bit we can tell from from the last few preseason games, it does seem that Miller and Bayless are an effective pairing, capable of pushing tempo and stressing the opposing defense. How many minutes Nate will use that line-up remains to be seen.

Bayless just needs to keep working his time to show the naysayers will come sometime during this season. If he performs well he is going to force Nate to let him on the floor.

The best scenario for Bayless is for him to show enough progress that the team decides to package Blake and Outlaw’s expiring contracts to land a quality 4-5 backup. Second option would be for the team to decide to let Blake go next summer. In either case, Bayless’ improved play has given those of us who see his potential reason to remain optimistic, and given KP reason to hang on to him and see how he develops. I will continue to repeat that Bayless is likely to become a highly efficient scorer and a quality PG defender. Whether or not he ever becomes an adequate distributor is a very open question.

by upper left corner on Oct 20, 2009 9:13 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Exactly right

I think you’ve got it exactly right. At the moment, what Bayless has demonstrated is an ability to penetrate and get to the line. That’s good, but it’s probably not enough to get him regular minutes on this team unless some other guys are either injured or playing really badly. But if he can learn to shoot consistently from outside (which his history suggests he can) and become a real defensive asset (and he’s shown some promise there too), it will be nearly impossible to deny him minutes.

Personally, I don’t see Bayless ever becoming a true PG. I don’t think he’ll ever have more than average distributive skills. But I do think he can become a valuable combo guard/sixth man type (sort of like a bigger Nate Robinson); someone who can be a real spark plug off the bench.

If Bayless isn’t going to get any playing time, it might actually be better to send him down to the D-league for a stint. He’ll hate it, but at least he’ll be able to log long minutes and work on his game.

by UDUB on Oct 20, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crap! We have FIVE point guard wannabees!.

I just realied while writing this – we have FIVE guards who “want and.or need the ball”…Five very good passers. But five pretty interchangeable parts… Random thoughts:

1) Bayless will see significant time this year. In blowouts, both ways, he will log most 4th quarter minutes. He will continue to drive and score and defend, and begin to earn D minutes against the quicker 1’s…

2) Blake’s 4+ Mil expiring contract is worth quite a bit to another team…

3) Rudy has shown an affinity for handling the ball…

So how about a 4-guard tandem of Miller and Rudy at point, Roy and Bayless at 2? Roy works well with Rudy… Rudy can hit a 3 better than Steve…

Blake and Travis could net a Milsap like player for the key 4/5 role… (Travis is NOT the man we want in that position)… (although Howard will be fine for this year)…

by Visionary2 on Oct 20, 2009 10:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

My prediction, and it's probably gonna hurt.

Rudy or Bayless will be traded along with one of our SF’s ( Batum is more than likely staying, unless we get a no-brainer offer for him. Outlaw or Marty is more than likely. ) and maybe a big man or two, with cash and a pick or two for a talent upgrade, maybe at the wing. Maybe a rugged 3/4 ( Marvin Williams type ) or a point forward ( Stephen Jackson type ). This roster is just too stacked to get playing time, and to pay in the coming years. Talent consolidation has to be coming, otherwise we have to make the decision of letting guys walk for nothing, or paying out the nose to keep too many good players around.

I think an upgrade could be had at the 3/4 easier than other positions, so that is where it will happen. We have a pretty ferocious 3 big rotation that has youth and power with Greg, Joel, and LMA that is now rounded out nicely with J-Ho. We have a guard logjam, with either Rudy or Bayless getting traded to solidify the rotation and minutes. We have a veteran PG and a journeyman PG, with Roy also logging minutes at the 1.

Rugged 3/4 players who can play either position, and are good defenders are pretty damned valuable in the playoffs, and I think one would really even our rotation out.

by dario argento on Oct 21, 2009 12:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

A consolidation trade

We talked about this quite a bit in the summer of 2008 (before Webster’s injury) and again at the trading deadline. The advantage last year was RLEC, which made just about any other team’s player (and contract) a viable possibility. This year, the options will be more limited, mainly because of the low salaries of the players you’re proposing to trade

If you put Outlaw and Rudy together in a proposal along with the Euro-hold capspace and add the 125%+100k “lopsided deal” bonus, you’re still only able to bring back a player making about 5-6 mil in return. There may be some deals in that price range for a young 3-4 that make sense, but it won’t be easy to find a talented player who also fits “the culture”

I agree that KP needs to explore these roster-thinning options, but he seems to be attached emotionally to many of the current players (especially Rudy) so it will have to take some “persuasion” (team adversity, or player/agent discontent) to convince him to pull the trigger on one of these midseason “2-for-1” deals

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 21, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs