The Definitive Strength
While you were off celebrating the Blazers' two-point win against the Nuggets reader Phillippe dropped a note into the inbox with the following question: What will be the best strength of the Blazers this year? Roy? Depth? What will they rely on?
It's a good question and one I'll throw open to you as we begin our last pre-season week. But for my money the answer is clearly rebounding. There are flashier aspects to the game but dominating the boards gives you a chance in most games no matter how you're playing. It won't make up for horrendous defense (as that takes away rebounding opportunities) but it can sure save your bacon on nights the offense isn't clicking. We marvel at forced turnovers and blocked shots but missed shots occur on an exponentially more frequent basis. If you want to control the ball and the game you need to grab more of those misses than the other guy. More rebounds equals more opportunities. More opportunities equals a better chance of winning, especially for a possession-oriented team like Portland.
The view is not without precedent in our own history. All of the high-level Blazer teams that you remember fondly were also good rebounding teams. Walton and Lucas did it in the 70's, Duck and Buck and Jerome in the early 90's, Grant and Sabonis in the late 90's. That two-decade long playoff streak also featured consistent rebounding. It was a Blazer hallmark up until the moment everything fell apart.
We've already seen a Rebounding Renaissance of sorts and signs point to it continuing. Despite a small itchy spot at power forward the Blazers are now stocked with good rebounders up and down the rotation. This should be their bread and butter and one of the keys to their success.
What's your call on this matter? Point out to us the definitive strength that will mark this team's season and lead to oodles of wins. The comment section is open.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Blocking shots may be it
ELEVEN blocks tonight, and without GO able to play much of the game. Our interior D was strong as a result.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
Man that game took soooo looooong
The wife kept coming into the bedroom where I was listening to the game. “its still not over” it wasn’t impatience though. The game really should have been over 30 min before it was.
by DephlatorMouse on Oct 18, 2009 11:12 PM PDT reply actions
Longest NBA game I've ever attended
And that includes games that went OT and nationally televised games.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
With no TV at least the TIVOs were not cutting out the last 30 mi nutes!
And the Blazers sold more beer!
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
That Greg Oden has a habit of getting rebounds. Probably luck though.
The Kings have the best bench I’ve seen. There are easily 14 guys on this team good enough for every bench in the league. Now if we could only get some starters, I’d totally jizz in my pants.
Kings fan
i'd say it's more his job than luck
by portlandgiirl91 on Oct 18, 2009 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
sticky hands
Oden fingers either have Spidey-stick-um, or suction cups like Octopi tentacles
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
lol interesting terminology
really don’t understand either haha
by portlandgiirl91 on Oct 18, 2009 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Spidey = Spiderman
Octopi = plural for octopus
Whenever the basketball touches Greg’s hands, it tends to nestle there. Until he decides to pass or dunk it
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
lol i seee
yeah oden has always reminded me of a slow person like a dufus but you can’t help but love him.
so i take being spiderman is better than octopi?? correct? lol
by portlandgiirl91 on Oct 18, 2009 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions
As far as what "should be" a Blazer strength this year.
It should be forced turnovers/opponent field goal percentage. This will only happen however if Nate has them playing all out without concern of conserving energy for later & having frequent substitutions.
The Blazers with this much depth shouldn’t be running marathons they should be running a relay race constantly passing the baton.
by DephlatorMouse on Oct 18, 2009 11:19 PM PDT reply actions
RE: opponent field goal percentage
They need to close out on shooters. The team did this all last year and it urks me that they continue to slack off. There were so many uncontested three pointers by Denver tonight.
--
by CaptainSexyJacob on Oct 18, 2009 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Long !!! Get used to it
With SUB Ref’s it will be like that !!!!!!!!!!
OH NO am I going to get fined?
Come on Mr Stern pay the refs and maybe I will forgive you for stealing my favorite singers middle school girlfriend.
This is going to be my time. Time to taste the fruits and let the juices drip down my chin. I proclaim this the season of Greg!"
Rebounding > all.
"I think twittering and all that facebook crap just makes you a loser." ~ Charles Barkley
extra possessions are incredibly underrated. Gotta go with rebounding.
"If the Lakers are Hollywood, then we are South Central." - Clipper fan.
Offensive rebounding, yes.
Defensive rebounding, nope.
On defense, it’s more about stifling your opponents’ eFG% than moving out of position to grab rebounds.
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
Without defensie rebounding
There is no defense. If your opponent has 2-3 shots on half their possessions, their eFG% can be noticeably worse than yours and it won’t matter. Part of what makes the Spurs great is that they are ALWAYS (except last year) top 3 in def rebounding %.
defensive rebounding tends to the mean… there is a smaller range. Five poor defensive boarders will still grab a fair percentage of defensive rebounds… the Aldridge/Outlaw frontcourt actually had just a slightly below-average DRB% if I remember correctly.
"If the Lakers are Hollywood, then we are South Central." - Clipper fan.
by Cablinasian on Oct 19, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
ironically, I had typed up a point about offensive rebounding being much more valuable due to defensive boarding regressing to the mean, only to have my post deleted after hitting “back.”
"If the Lakers are Hollywood, then we are South Central." - Clipper fan.
by Cablinasian on Oct 19, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Anything involving regression to the mean
Is almost instantly rec worthy.
Wish I had seen the post!
Shooting
The Blazers have a rotation of 6 guys who can shoot the three effectively out of 10, and of the other four (Greg, Joel, Andre, and LaMarcus), only Joel doesn’t really have a reliable offensive game.
If you ever hear of someone punching out a girl scout and stealing her Samoas, it was me
- Mortimer
by Clevelander among roses on Oct 19, 2009 12:10 AM PDT reply actions
It has been said
Joel is great at setting picks, and I believe that. Therefore he has a great offensive game. He also is a great offensive rebounder.
Shooting is not the only thing that is important on Offense.
hg
Greg Oden
I name a player rather than a characteristic because this one player has what only one other team in the NBA has (Howard): Dominance inside. And Greg brings more than Dwight (see below).
Roy is in the top 5 of the wing players. LMA may get there with the PF’s this year. Depth is equal to all but a couple (Cleveland, Orlando, Boston?). But Greg Oden is the force other teams must consider the single biggest threat..
I am assuming that Greg continues to mature and develop and stays out of foul trouble most nights. But tonight is an excellent example of a quality opponent unable to deal with Greg while on the floor. Greg’s numbers are 36 points 4.5 OR, 11.25 DR 15.75TR, 4.5 blocks. Yes and 13.5 fouls but Greg’s fouls troubles are assumed to be under control. To bring perspective Shaq and Howard cannot shoot free throws. Greg can and does. They cannot foul him to stop him from dunking – they will foul out their whole team in the 1st half and he will still score. So Greg Oden is our most definitive strength.
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
Fair enough
I love what Greg can bring this year too…but I think it is this type of hyperbole that can make us Blazer fans look at bit too homeristic. Oden will not bring more than Dwight anytime in the near future and likely not at all. Dwight is the best center in the game and is likely to keep improving just like Greg will.
Projecting numbers like that but dismissing fouls is pretty bias – you have to take the good with the bad when it comes to stats and whether we like it or not when challenged with players driving it at him and being physical Greg was called for fouls (note: didn’t use the word committed) in an alarmingly similar way to last year.
Free throws. Greg has had some good free throw shooting nights this preseason (10-12, 6-6 tonight) but still his average was 65% going into tonights game and only just over 71% after. Better than Dwight and Shaq, sure, but hardly great numbers and I don’t know if this justifies the ‘can and does’ affirmation. College and last year’s numbers suggest 60-70% is right around what we should expect Greg to average from the free throw line. Which is fine, anything over 70% would be gravy.
Greg can and will have a positive impact this season but I’m wary of any predictions extrapolated from the small sampling of preseason games or the hype machine surrounding every positive development Greg makes.
You don't sound all that mad to me.
Level headed and reasoned would be a better signature.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
The question is what is our most definitive strength but you raise good points
Without Greg we simply don’t have one definitive strength – another good young team which is not a championship contender.
With Greg functioning as he did last night we have a definitive strength against the rest of the league. It may sound homeristic to outsiders but I don’t care what they think. There is nothing homeristic about believing the 1st pick in the draft will justify his pick. His numbers per 36 last year steadily improved and overall exceeded Howard’s rookie year statistics. Again comparing physical characteristics at draft measurements Greg exceeds Dwight in no-step vertical by 2"; stands 2" taller and is faster and more agile in the lane. We are used to seeing a player post-surgery not yet recovered. Will he return to that form? All indications are that he continues to do just that. Greg has better hands than Howard and better earlier indications of offensive instincts than Howard. But this piece is not about Howard, It is about Greg being the definitive strength of the team.
You take issue with Greg’s free throw average while I point to every game but one being excellent. I do agree that it is too early to tell if free throw average will remain high.
I am in complete agreement about the hype. I do not predict what Greg will do. I only assert that unless he continues to dominate, the Blazers have no definitive strength. Is there really any other? Where else will we dominate night after night?
"Either way we have two phenomenal units. I'm excited to play with either one." - Martell Webster
I pretty much agree with what most people are saying - rebounding
Greg has a huge role in this, especially in terms of offensive boards, but with Joel and Howard rebounding well as backups so far in preseason and LMA repeatedly stating that this is his focus this year I think our potential in this area is off the charts. Even the backcourt has greater rebounding potential this year, with the addition of Andre Miller.
I think this, above all else, will be the definitive team strength this season. We may very well lead the league in a number of rebounding categories. Greg may be the driving force behind this but its not all about him IMO.
He didn't say Greg was better.
He said Greg could make his free throws and Howard and Shaq can’t and Greg was the force that other teams had to deal with. Therefore Greg is our ultimate strength.
hg
Could make his free throws
Could. Not can and will but could.
Thats an important distinction to me. So far he has proven himself to be 5-10% better than Shaq and Dwight in that category. He has the potential to hit at 75%+ because he has better form and touch than both of those other guys but he hasn’t done it yet and I can’t call him a definitive strength partly based on this until I see it when the games count.
Well Maybe.
But all the response to our strength is just speculative, therefore before the season starts all speculative strength has not been proven.
I do agree with your opinion that it isn’t all about him, but even that is argumentative therefore speculation.
hg
Rebounding and Depth
Rebounding is clearly a strength of this team, as it should be given it’s length.
Depth, however, is also a strength. Oden, Batum and Fernandez are better this year than last, Webster is back, and once Miller learn’s the playbook, he’ll be another talent to factor into the equation. In fact, the point guard position has gone from a questionmark to a strength, Oden’s steady improvement combined with Pryz, and Howards solid performance combined with Aldridge gives the Blazers depth at the 4 and 5 spots as well.
It is, in fact, a different team from last year. Last year Aldridge and Roy were the go to players for scoring. This year, we have seen that Oden can routinely put double figures on board working inside, and Miller is a talent who can and will do the same thing. There was a lot of talk early about whether both Miller and Roy could work effectively – given both like the ball in their hands, but what we perhaps forgot is that they are professionals, and adjust their game to the teams evolution and the options on the floor. Both of these players can move without the ball and score if someone delivers it, which means they can both play a comination guard role as the situation demands. It’s called teamwork.
In point of fact, this is going to be one very difficult team to defense. Both Miller and Roy are big for their positions – putting pressure on the other teams guards, and very few teams have th center/forward combination necessary to stop both Aldridge and Oden. So – pick your poison.
With the solid play of Howard, the only possible weakness right now appears to be the 3-pt shooting that we need to spread the floor. Given Miller, we need to get that from the 3 spot. However, I suspect that Batum’s steady play and defense gives him the edge for now, given the Webster needs time to come back from his year’s layoff, and with Miller likely to start, that leaves Blake, Outlaw and Fernandez – all of which seem destined to play off the bench. Which is one reason we may see more rotations – particularly at the 3 – than we sometimes think. Granted, we may see Batum’s increased confidence translate into more scoring – which is likely – but whether he can put the 3 pt percenages up that he did in the summer’s euro-league remains to be seen.
All-in-all, a lot to feel good about. I particularly like watching Oden. He reminds me this year of the player we saw at Ohio. Quicker, lighter, and more confident. And, clearly starting to quiet down his critics. The big knock was always claiming that he couldn’t put the ball in the bucket – which was not the criticism he had when at Ohio. And we can’t keep pretending that he “hasn’t played” against stronger teams. Last night he simply dominated for a stretch. Against the Jazz he grabbed 9 rebounds in 17 minutes. And so forth. And both of these teams had strong front lines.
Let the season begin.
whether both Miller and Roy could work effectively
I agree with your points, and once we start seeing Andre connecting with Oden on lob passes Portland’s offense is going to look awesome and “fright-night scary” for the opposing teams
When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!
Why worry about Miller and the 3-pt shot...
he doesn’t take that many. Everyone is hung up on his 3-pt percentage. In his years in the league and having played 815 games (starting 768), Miller has taken a total of 561 three-pointers. That is much less than one a game.
I would take into account since he is the point guard he may have the ball at the end of the shot clock and with everyone else covered he had to shoot. If the shot is long the chance of converting is slim. I don’t put much emphasis on it because his total shooting percentage is 46%, and that includes his 3-point misses, of course.
By the way he made 118 of those 3s for 21%. If he was a 2 guard and setting up he would be able to make the threes but most of the time he is moving and trying to position himself to pass to an open player. I believe he deserves a little slack here.
Last year Miller was 15 for 53, .283. Other guards: Baron Davis, 99-328, .302; Tony Parker, 19-65, .292; Devin Harris, 64-220, .291; Allen Iverson, 28-99, .283; Russell Westbrook, 35-129, .271; Ronnie Brewer, 22-85, .259, and there were others that scored an average in the double figures yet had a low percentage. It appears Miller and Parker take the shot as a last resort as both are good at driving the lane.
Just my thoughts. By the way, I think depth will be the definitive strength. If they can play together this should be a fun season.
Rebounding and Half-court offense
Agree with you completely that rebounding will be a hallmark of our success. As you said, rebounding comes into play more than turnovers, blocked shots, and steals. Increasing our Rebound% Rate will be tremendous.
Also: if we get it right, we will be known for our half-court offense. We were already a slow and efficient team, even though we were jump-shot oriented. With addition of post-up options in Oden and Miller, he have the potential to be absolutely fearsome with our half-court offense. It will take the team a while to fold in the new ingredients, but if this was a strength before, and I cant see us going away from it, only making it better.
Flexibility
With so many players filling so many roles at so many positions (some multiple positions), it’s safe to say we hae one of the more flexible lineups in the league. While our depth will lead to the wearing down of many teams during the regular season and hopefully a few extra easy Ws, I’m much more excited to see our matchup flexibility in a playoff series. Oer 7 games I think we hae the personnel and coaching staff to adjust for matchups long after our opponents are out of options. Small, big, fast, slow… 2 PGs or none. Blazers hae it ALL.
I'll take your rebounding
And raise you…specifically, with Howard on board, it’ll be rebounding and the outlet pass to streaking wings that will define the team this year.
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
Assist from the PG
It was said on court side last night that Andre, Steve and Jerryd are taking markable more shots then our interior players. BRoy’s scoring is way down and other then one game LMA’s scoring is way down. Andre is our top scorer now. That is OK if that is what Nate wants or if the shots are going down. I think the assist from our PG’s to our bigs would be our definitive strength.
hg

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