Death By A Thousand Cuts
Long time reader, (very) occasional commenter and first time fan poster. I read this site fairly regularly, so I hope this post is not a regurgitation of something already written. If so, sorry.
I was prompted to write this after the Yahoo article on Miller and JQuick’s article concerning McMillan’s pep talk to Roy, assuring him that he and Aldridge will get their touches and the offense will settle down to a more familiar flow (read: Roy and LMA will get theirs). It coalesced a feeling of unease I have had about this team since it became clear Webster was coming back and Miller was added to the fold.
There has been a lot of talk about this team having too much talent and not enough minutes to go around. It is self explanatory as to why this could become an issue and potentially lead to some chemistry-destroying incidences. Yet, the more I have read about the team since training camp has begun, I feel the more likely cause of disunity could arise from a slightly different take on this line of thought: there is simply too much talent that is not differentiated enough so as to delineate a clear positional and overall pecking order.
If you look at the shooting guard position, this is an example of two talented players at the same position, but a clear pecking order. You have two talented players that both deserve time, but one is clearly the superior player and has definitely earned the starter role and this fact is undisputed by either player (along with everyone else on the team). This does not mean that Rudy will be happy playing second fiddle to Roy forever, but he likely knows that there is no way that Roy should play second fiddle to him. He may grumble and complain to his agent, but it won’t be about issues of fairness or favoritism or what have you. Worse case, he will bide his time and wait to be traded, but he won’t blow up the team, because he knows the truth of his place in the pecking order at his particular position (if not on the team as a whole - more on this later). .
The point guard position is a case where this is not so clear and I think emphasizes the potential for problems where there is not a clear delineation of the pecking order. I have seen strong arguments on this site for starting both Miller and Blake. Many argue that Miller is the better pure point guard and has the career resume backing it up. Yet, it seems just as many argue that may be all fine and well that Miller is the "better" point guard, but he’s not the "better" point guard to start alongside Roy. It seems to be intimated in this JQuick article that Roy has a preference, or at a minimum, a level of comfort with starting alongside Blake as opposed to Miller. Obviously, this may change as the preseason rolls on, but I don’t think that is a forgone conclusion. If Nate is having to reassure Roy and Aldridge that they will in fact get their "touches", it makes me think Roy may not be too jacked about starting with a point guard that is used to getting his as well (not to mention that Roy and Aldridge were not getting "theirs" in the Sacramento games because the team was feeding Oden in the post…so what does that mean as regards Oden starting or seeing touches if he is in the starting lineup?). It is also equally clear that Miller has a "preference" as to who should start, as he stated emphatically in the Yahoo article. At the end of the preseason, either Miller or Blake will be starting, that much we know. But, I don’t think there will be a clear pecking order established at that position by then, especially if Blake becomes the starter. If Blake starts, I think Miller will think the inferior player is starting before him. If Miller starts, it could lead to a slow simmering frustration on Roy’s part as he, the bona fide star on the team is forced to adjust his role, which may lead to a slight diminishing of said role.
The team may be able to cope with one of these types of situations. Roy is a mature player for his age and Blake and Miller have always conducted themselves as professionals. But it is one thing to handle or deal with an unpleasant or uncomfortable situation and something else to feel that situation had a good or correct resolution. The difference being that the former requires you to be mature and\or professional enough to not let it get the best of you, but it does not necessarily mean you no longer feel resentful about it. The problem is that this scenario has the possibility to play out at a number of different positions on this team and can even play out in the overall pecking order of the team. Will Greg be happy if he plays in the second unit simply because there are not enough touches for him with Roy and Aldridge in the first unit or he fits better playing with that second unit? How long will Batum\Webster be content to play behind Webster\Batum and will either be happy getting only 24 minutes? This can also play out in the overall pecking order as well. Will Rudy be happy if his minutes go down somewhat so that Batum or Webster or Outlaw can get more run? If Rudy feels he is better than those guys, he probably thinks he deserves a bigger role. Thus, it may not be a single incident, but many smaller ones that lead to problems: death by a thousand cuts, so to speak.
To me, the underlying commonality of the examples listed above is that after Roy, the pecking order is not clear or set enough on this team. Yes, Aldridge is second, but for how long if Greg is putting up decent points and strong rebounding numbers and playing great defense? Who is third, fourth, fifth? When I think back to the Blazers of the early 90s, most of us would probably agree as to the pecking order on that team or be pretty close through the first seven players. At a minimum, there was no doubt as to who the starting five should be. I recently saw a poll on this site that had umpteen different starting lineups listed. If a poll like that was published back then, we would have laughed at it.
If there is any consolation, it is that McMillan seems to be aware of this potential problem. At least, to my mind, it helps explains why he so emphatically stresses that the players need to give themselves over to the team at the expense of their individual desires (e.g. minutes, starting, fame, fortune, etc.). I vaguely remember an article by Quick (or an interview with him…) where McMillan discussed this and Quick asked him how he planned to make that work. McMillan was caught speechless for a moment and then said, it just had to work. I for one hope he has come up with a better answer to that question by now…
15 recs |
29 comments
Comments
I concur, LaoTzu.
A rec for Cyclops@Centercourt.
Stupid people have stupid ideas.
by AK1984 on Oct 12, 2009 5:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're doomed!
Rec. Good writeup. Real problem, good analysis of the problem and how it can develop, and what would help with it.
Other teams have even more problems, though. They have to actually find a way to stop these guys.
I’ll take our problem over theirs. Now, next year, and for quite a while to come. I don’t doubt that a couple of our guys will want to go elsewhere. If we get to the Finals and don’t win it, they will want to come back and do it again and get it right, but eventually, they will want to go where they can play more. That’s fine. We’ll draft more role players, bring a guy or two over from Europe, use our MLE. We’re stocked for a long time to come. We’ll be fine.
We’ll have some bumps along the road. But we’re a steamroller now.
Look at it this way — our biggest problem is us. There’s usually only a very few teams in the league who can honestly say that. But we are one of them, with enough talent that if we get “us” running as an effective unit, we need fear no one. Not LA, not Cleveland, not anyone. We have enough talent to whip them all, if we can become an efficient unit that utilizes that talent.
I’ll take that problem. Better that than hoping that the five teams ahead of you in your conference all have major problems and blow up.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
by jscot on Oct 12, 2009 2:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A good thing to remember
Look at it this way — our biggest problem is us.
Oh, and OP, this post is a really good read, after all the hubbub today. Thanks for taking the time to articulate your thoughts.
"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)
by G_dubs on Oct 12, 2009 3:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well said
Dave, is that you writing under pseudonyms now?
In all seriousness, though, it is a little disturbing to read about Roy being insecure about his own role. I’d like to think by now that he’s confident enough and proved himself enough to know that he’s going to be the man no matter what. I don’t think LaMarcus has quite earned that same level of “we’re definitely going to build our offense around you” respect, though, and I’d rather him be a tertiary piece behind Roy and Greg, but I can see him feeling differently about that.
by Royster on Oct 12, 2009 7:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Part of the confusion comes from adding
new “significant” pieces without losing any, in Martell and Miller. Add to that Bayless wanting more time and it can look like a mess in the beginning. However, as Nate stated before, the players will determine the pecking order. Eventually, if the leadership is good on this team and with the coaching staff, the pecking order will become evident. In fact, it is already beginning to show that Miller is a cut above Blake, but both will fill important roles. As the season progresses the player’s roles will become more delineated. Right now, Nate is doing what most good coaches would do, which is experimenting with guys trying on different roles then they are used to….the preseason is the time to do this. As a coach he needs to know what guys can do and allow them to expand their games a bit. But I fully expect once the regular season rolls around, the team will look similar to what it did last year.
by JasonT on Oct 12, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Well written and recc'd, but I don't agree that there needs to be a "pecking order"...
A team is not a dog pack. There might be 3 or 4 different starting lineups, one of which might work best against a small, speedy team like Golden State, another of which might be better suited for a tall, strong team like the Lakers. Late-game substitutions should ALWAYS be made with a “feel” for who has a hot hand as opposed to insertion of a fixed lineup according to a universal prescription. And there WILL be injuries, there always are!
The key think that Nate has to do is figure out how Andre’s style of play impacts that of Roy+LMA on the one hand, and Oden on the other. If RAMBO clicks, that’s the best unit in terms of “best players” for each position. But what if it doesn’t? What if, as it now seems likely, Miller is a net minus for Roy’s game vs. Blake while at the same time being a net plus for Oden’s game. Wouldn’t such a circumstance argue for two distinct units, leaving “pecking order” to the birds?
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
by timbo on Oct 12, 2009 9:20 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
How well did going with a small, speedy lineup against GS
work out for the Mavs in 2007?
It’s far more important for guys to get comfortable and completely instinctual with their units and rotations (I don’t mean just white and black units, but the mish mash of mixed units that a staggered rotation causes) than to try and match up with the other team every time out.
by Royster on Oct 12, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I also agree with this.
I’ve always favored the approach of making other teams match up with you, rather than the other way. This does not preclude making changes in the course of a game, but generally speaking, it is always better to get the other guy reacting to you, than for you to be reacting to him.
I also agree with the concept of players getting used to and comfortable with the guys they are on the court with. I am leaning towards the idea that Nate may be thinking along similar lines, which is why he wants to see if he can field two complete lineups.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Oct 13, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick seemed to think so....
“But McMillan is sounding more and more likehe favors two units that are equally balanced…”
I really think all of the words we’ve been reading, from BRoy and Nate, are designed to speak to Dre through the media, and get him to realize that the team could be better off (and hopefully, he could have fun playing with) a running second unit that features Dre and Rudy… And if he plans to start Martell Wed, that tells me that loyal Nate (never lose a starting position to injury) is trying to find a way to get Nic on that second unit with Rudy and Dre as well.. If we could get Oden there as well, that’s one heckuva nice running (can’t even say second) unit…
Blazers: RUN away with the title!
KP: Please don't trade the next decade's Scottie Pippen (Batum), Spanish Larry Bird (Rudy), Bill Russell (GO) or Captain BRoy - at least until they 3-peat..
by Visionary2 on Oct 12, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
inescapable
put a bunch of young men in close quarters with a mission, and you have a pack social aspect.
humans are human.
by Blazin' on Oct 12, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While starting different starting line-ups to match the team you're playing sounds good in theory,
when have we seen that philosophy applied as of late? I can’t think of any teams that do that consistently, and there must be a reason for it. And I do think players need a pecking order.
by dario argento on Oct 12, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Varying roles can work
but they still need to be well defined.
Somebody is going to run the show, and you are going to have a pecking order of some sort, invariably, unless you have a strongly authoritarian coach. On the college or high school level this might happen, but rarely in the pros.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
by jscot on Oct 13, 2009 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the most important position in the wolf pack are the alphas.
if there is faith in the alphas on the squad, in this case Nate and BRoy, then most of the pecking order will resolve itself.
The dangerous turf wars arise when the leadership is tested. Brandon’s insecurity about his position suggest that he is not confident enough in his alpha position to allow the team to develop new capabilities.
The problem with the pecking order appears to be at the top.
by Blazin' on Oct 12, 2009 12:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good post. Very well articulated. I agree it's an issue but don't think it's a problem.
I honestly believe a trade is coming this year that will hurt some people on here a lot, but will consolidate talent, and make us even better.
by dario argento on Oct 12, 2009 5:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Very possible
I predicted that a long time ago, that there would be such trades that would hurt.
And we will give up more talent than we get back, too, if it happens. Almost invariably, quantity for quality is expensive.
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
by jscot on Oct 13, 2009 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post. The title had me thinking about it a little differently though.
There seem to be a lot of mostly smallish distractions and sub-plots that could, nick by nick, weaken the team if they fester into outright dissatisfaction or conflict:
- Brandon’s touches;
- LA’s touches;
- Does Miller fit into team culture?
- Is Miller not starting disruptive somehow? What about it Blake doesn’t start?
- Is the team being a little lazy in the preseason games (sounds like it from reports of Roy and LA);
- LA’s contract situation;
- Will Oden start? Will he get the ball enough?
- Will Batum or Martell or Travis or Rudy get enough time or touches?
- Will Bayless get any time?
- TO’s contract year;
- Blake’s contract year;
- Joel with player option / ETO coming up;
- Is there any resentment for Roy’s new contract?
- Is there enough defensive effort?
You get the idea. Quite a few of these are related to depth and playing time. A couple of injuries would change the dynamic pretty quickly, especially with the SF issues.
put a body on 'em
by RayBourque on Oct 12, 2009 11:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We are now the media. Lets not blow it out of hand.
As a blog, we are now the media. We cannot blame somebody else for blowing a topic out of proportion. Hope that we can control ourselves and not make trouble where none exists.
All good “employees” want to feel that they are adding value. BRoy is a young kid, a mature one, but still young. He has been playing for three years, and was the main man. In all that time, the Blazers have played one style of ball, so he kinda only knows one style of NBA ball.
Has he played NBA ball with a great PG before — maybe at the All Star Game. Will he be nervous about changing his game to fit with a great PG? Your bet. We might get the chance to run more. Will he be nervous about playing a new style of ball? You bet. We are emphasizing defense, which creates offense. Again, defense is a new strength for Brandon to demonstrate superiority. Wont he be nervous? Of course. [New max contract also adds stress to live up to the contract].
Andre Miller is a floor general, with veteran experience. Do you think Brandon’s sense of self assurance as team leader is being threatened? You bet. So what is Brandon’s rank, if Miller is a general — it cant be lower than Andre’s? But, with honest humility, does Brandon think he has earned Field Marshall (5-star general) title yet? You think he is nervous of wearing 5Star-General title on talent alone? In corporate terms — this an expansion of executive leadership. CEO is bringing in new COO. COO is hired for years of operating experience. But young CEO must not feel threatened in adjusted role. Young CEO is still the boss.
These are natural adjustments, and certainly Nate will have his hands full managing psyches. As fans, is there cause to be nervous? Yes. Leadership adjustments are particularly hard for 2-guards. [MJ, Kobe]. Much easier for new back court leader to share ownership with front court (Duncan/AJ, Duncan/Parker). But even that is not a given (Kobe/Shaq). Still, with the right ingredients, even hard is surmounted, and Kobe and MJ went on to win many titles.
Every time somebody sneezes, does not mean they have swine flu. We are the media. Lets not go crazy. This is just the start of the adjustment period. Give them some time. There will be plenty of time to go crazy, LATER — IF it all starts to fall apart.
by FromAfar on Oct 13, 2009 8:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great points about the human emotions involved...
I like your analogy of the new COO hiring… But I’d like to change it slightly. For the on-court Blazers, Nate is the president. Brandon has always been the fair-haired boy, senior VP of Sales.. Now, Nate brings in his nephew (Miller and Nate see eye to eye at dinner) as COO… You bet the fair haired boy is worried about his leadership role (AND feels the need to earn his fat new contract, which comes with a smaller territory (minutes, touches) and a bigger quota (get past first round of playoffs…)
I really hope Brandon can up his game to the next level. He’s a premier shooting guard, but he (gasp!) has a few weaknesses he can work on to improve.
One of them, IMO, is learning to trust his teammates. Just like MJ started to win titles when he passed the ball to the wings for the open 3. Just like Kobe started to win titles when he trusted his smurfs with the ball.. Both of those guys “need the ball in their hands” to create. But they both became better, and more importanty their TEAMS became better when they learned to trust their teammates. BRoy needs to trust that Miller knows what to do with the ball.
Another weakness is that BRoy picks his spots when to play D. He stated himself that he wanted to dedicate himself to D. Well, that requires more energy on the D end, and likely a slight reduction in energy expended (and perhaps a reduction in stats) on the O end…
Another weakness is that BRoy doesn’t move well without the ball, and doesn’t have a deadly catch-and-shoot off the pick yet. All of the truly great players move well without the ball. I think he can develop that skill. If he can roll off a low post screen to the elbow at the top of the key – the point guard, playing up top, will then easily be able to deliver that pass, which will add another HUGE weapon to the Blazers arsenal, AND improve BRoy’s game and numbers as well.
The VP of Sales is still critically important to the org. But the company is getting bigger now, and he has to spend more time perhaps doing the less glamorous things like play D (retain customers that are unhappy). We’ve hired new people to help off-load some of his work (touches) so that he can do more important things for the overall org…
Blazers: RUN away with the title!
KP: Please don't trade the next decade's Scottie Pippen (Batum), Spanish Larry Bird (Rudy), Bill Russell (GO) or Captain BRoy - at least until they 3-peat..
by Visionary2 on Oct 13, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nicely written.....
…. but I can’t help think of it as another glass half full prospective when looking at the Blazers.
If players produce, they will get playing time. There is no way that McMillan sits Rudy if he’s hitting 3’s at clip equal or better than last season. Webster will get his if he shows that last season was just a delay on his breakout. If LaMarcus is nailing jumpers, the offense will flow through him. If Oden is having his way with opposing centers, then LaMarcus is going to learn to adjust his game and feed off that – fewer jumpers that game, but perhaps more looks close to the basket as Greg dumps the ball off to him.
If our guys are as talented and ready as we believe, they Nate is going to be able to go with a two team lineup. Such an approach alleviates, if not eliminates, many of the supposed problems ppeople like to raise over the minute crunch problem.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Oct 13, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
All this angst will evaporate with a couple sprained ankles
Good post, but we need to remember: it’s a long NBA season, and guys get banged up. This is why depth is a good thing.
If there are serious problems relating to the Blazers’ unusual depth, they’ll emerge during the run-up to the playoffs when Nate trims the rotation. That’s presuming the guys are all healthy at that point.
I’m guessing that by that time there will have been a trade, lessening the log jam at the three position.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
by hurryup09 on Oct 13, 2009 12:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to Bedge
I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.
by jscot on Oct 13, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A good read, but one quibble
Nate will not sub in whole lineups, like in hockey. In fact, Roy and Aldridge will be in with the “second unit” more than they won’t be. So the second unit philosophy isn’t valid. However, your main point is still well taken—that a pecking order needs to be established, and if the second fiddle handles it badly it could mess with chemistry.
I happen to like Steve Blake and more importantly just don’t have a good feeling about Miller. However, the better player (assuming they both play 100%) should start and get the bulk of the minutes—and most would agree that is Miller. If Miller is only effective when Roy is sitting…well, he’d better be happy with 10-15 minutes per game, because that’s all he’d get. But I don’t think Miller will be ineffective with Roy. If there’s a clear pecking order it will probably be Miller before Blake.
But never count Blake out. It’s happened several times and he’s always won the starting position eventually. I remember when he first came to the Blazers and seeing him on the end of the bench and dismissing him. Telfair went down, Jack wasn’t ready to start, Blake comes in and has 14 points and 9 assists or something and locks up the starting position. Then a couple years later Jack was making some rumblings during preseason, but Blake won it a few games into the season and never relinquished it. Same thing last year with Bayless’s strong summer league. I am a big KP fan but this may be a move that backfires a bit—Blake may outplay Miller and Miller won’t take it well.
We’ll see. Can’t wait to see it play out.
"HA HA HA HA HA
I'm not laughing, I'm just listing the five ugliest Blazers ever."
- rockingharder
by jamon51 on Oct 14, 2009 1:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Like some other wise soul said on here earlier today, the White Unit is an urban myth outside of practice scrimmages
Nate will not sub in whole lineups, like in hockey. In fact, Roy and Aldridge will be in with the "second unit" more than they won’t be. So the second unit philosophy isn’t valid.
"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)
by G_dubs on Oct 14, 2009 1:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, technically
I was “earlier today” but you only posted 2 minutes after me… :D
"HA HA HA HA HA
I'm not laughing, I'm just listing the five ugliest Blazers ever."
- rockingharder
by jamon51 on Oct 14, 2009 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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