The Hidden Value of Joel Pryzbilla

by ocho-ocho on Oct 12, 2009 4:41 PM PDT

Good article: http://mvn.com/bucksdiary/2009/10/the-hidden-value-of-joel-pryzbilla.html

I really like these stats they've thrown in:

NBA Rebounding % averages by position

              Defensive     Offensive

PG:    8.3%    2.0%
SG:    8.7%    2.3%
SF:    12.1% 4.1%
PF:    16.8% 7.5%
C:    18.8% 9.0%

Converting Pryzbilla's Boardwork into added points

So how do Pryzbilla's conversion rates compare to the average center's? Very well. He had the best defensive rebound conversion rate among centers last season (29.0%), and his offensive conversion rate was above average as well (11.6%).

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Comments

Good article. Wreck'd. I love Joel. And I will hate to see him go if that day comes. That will weaken us considerably if we can't replace his rebounding.

by dario argento on Oct 12, 2009 4:48 PM PDT reply actions

We know how good he is.

by oregonslee on Oct 12, 2009 5:51 PM PDT reply actions

Go Joel

Dude!, what's wrong with you? Why you gotta be holding a corn dog when I go for a high-five??

by 1badbadger on Oct 12, 2009 6:02 PM PDT reply actions

I believe he taught Oden

his one-handed rebound while boxing out.

Great way to take advantage of height/reach and strength.

Look to the Cleveland game when we see the Twin Twin Towers.

by Sashland on Oct 12, 2009 8:33 PM PDT reply actions

Joel looks drunk in that photo

Joel, “Nah, man, I’m good to drive.”

Nenê, “Give me those keys.”

by tominhawaii on Oct 13, 2009 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions

one-handed rebound while boxing out.

Greg’s got “sticky hands” to corrall rebounds with one paw when his other arm is pinned down, I haven’t seen Joel (or most other big men) have quite the same ability

Examples of this from NBA past include Moses Malone and Clifford Ray = big hands

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 13, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions

I seem to recall seeing Joel do the "sticky hands" thing before Oden... any help?

and tih, that ain’t drunk (Joel “cooollll man, that ball’s floating”. Nene: "Ohhhh look, that pretty orange ringie is round, just like my “I-spy” invisible telescope).

by Sashland on Oct 13, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions

The problem with this article

Is that studies have found that there are strongly diminishing returns when it comes to defensive rebounding. Most defensive rebounds that a center doesn’t grab really would be grabbed by one of his teammates if he didn’t get them. That is why defensive rebounding is much less valuable than this author and David Berri think it is.

If Joel Przybilla does have hidden value that most people don’t realize it is because of his setting good picks. I have never seen any stat for the effectiveness of picks a player sets, but Przybilla does it well and is much more useful than he would otherwise be because of it.

by trk on Oct 12, 2009 9:04 PM PDT reply actions

Except in our case

if Przy didn’t grab it, no one else does…and definitely not our PFs.

Aldridge is such a good offensive rebounder and yet, equally terrible defensive rebounder…which is frustrating since offensive rebounding is the more difficult of the two. It’s like a unicycler for the Shanghai Circus keep falling off a two wheeled bicycle.

And as we all know, Travis is Travis…at least he is consistently below average on both ends.

by xedubx on Oct 12, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions

I think part of the reason why Aldridge is a poor defensive rebounder

Is because he plays with Przybilla so often. If he played on a team with centers who didn’t rebound as much, Aldridge’s defensive rebounding numbers would almost certainly increase.

by trk on Oct 13, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Astonshingly, I agree with a comment that stands up for none other than LaMarcus Aldridge.

Let’s say that Aldridge switched spots with Chris Bosh, who has a substantially higher DRB% of the two guys. Because Bosh plays with a giant wuss at center, Andrea Bargnani, he’s given more opportunities to clean up the offensive glas than a guy like Aldridge, who most often must contend with Greg Oden or Joel Przybilla on that end of the court. Regardless, Aldridge is nevertheless still a craptastic one-on-one post defender and weakside help defender.

ORB% is a whole different ballgame, as well as one of the most important and underrated facets of efficiency. In that regard, Aldridge and Bosh bring nearly the same amount of production. Heck, Aldridge’s career numbers a a tad bit higher than Bosh’s on that end of the court. Bosh, however, is still way more efficient offensively on the whole than Aldridge, which has to do with his smooth dribble-drive move from the elbow that allows him to draw fouls at about twice the rate.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 14, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions

In the second paragraph of my above post, it shouldn't read as "offensive glas" in that line.

Rather, it should read as defensive glass. My first paragraph was concerning DRB%, while my second paragraph was concerning ORB%. I hope that clears up everything, since those stupid typos made me look like a dunderhead.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 14, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

In the title of your above post, it shouldn't read as "second paragraph"

Rather, it should read as “first paragraph”.

Come on, AK, you’re slipping.

by Royster on Oct 14, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm staring to lose it, slowly but surely.

Stupid people have stupid ideas.

by AK1984 on Oct 14, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions

For anyone who hasn't seen it yet

The study trk is referring to. Sadly, the guy works for Daryl Morey now, so anything he’s done in the last 18 months or so is all proprietary.

by Royster on Oct 12, 2009 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Paul Allen needs to hire this guy.

The Kings have the best bench I’ve seen. There are easily 14 guys on this team good enough for every bench in the league. Now if we could only get some starters, I’d totally jizz in my pants.

Kings fan

by dyshooter182 on Oct 13, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes and no

If you have a PF who is a great offensive rebounder but a mediocre defensive rebounder, it’s good to have a great defensive rebounding center.

It is very true that there are diminishing returns on defensive rebounding. But the extent to which it is true is impacted by the rebounding strength of the rest of the team, and especially your forwards.

And there is another factor, which we haven’t really used yet, but many teams have. A great rebounding center lets your other players leak out on the fast break. Even your PF can say sometimes, “Joel owns that one,” and take off down court.

A great rebounding center is very valuable. Certainly not as valuable as David Berri says, but still very valuable.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 13, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Well, we've definitely seen

how having Joel around has led us to having a great fast break.

by Royster on Oct 13, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions

That just says we aren't using what we have

But we did see some nice fast break buckets from LMA towards the end of last year. If he had to get the rebound on those, it wouldn’t happen.

I can tell you how to make an Excel spreadsheet that proves Portland wins 62 games this year.

by jscot on Oct 13, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

I just believe that it's far more important

to have the “dominant” rebounder be a guy whose comfortable enough securing the rebound and looking for a quick outlet to a guard than it is to have your PF take off a second earlier. For all his rebounding prowess, Joel seems to be pretty slow at getting the ball to a guy in a position to break once he has the ball, whether that’s due to his confidence in throwing the pass, or whatever, but I think it’s beyond just a simple explanation like “our guys aren’t taking advantage of it”.

by Royster on Oct 13, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions

this is why

Nate has been emphasizing defensive rebounding from all positions, during camp

it’s also a reason why I’d like to see “whoever” backs up LMA to be a superior defensive rebounder, if possible

When reached 39 years of following Portland basketball you have, be as passionate of the Trail Blazers you will not!

by two4larue on Oct 13, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Pryzzy is a world class rebounder, no doubt about it.

I have him as #2 to Dwight Howard on my Table of Ranks…

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Oct 12, 2009 9:27 PM PDT reply actions

Fun little stat about The Thrilla

According to Hollinger’s player statistics, of everyone who played 500 or more minutes last year, Joel had the highest overall rebound rate. Greg was #7 among Centers, and #8 overall. Not bad considering the bad rap he got.

RNK Player GP RebR
1 Joel Przybilla, POR _ 82 22.8
2 Dwight Howard, ORL _ 79 21.8
3 Marcus Camby, LAC _ 62 20.7
4 Samuel Dalembert, PHI _ 82 20.6
5 Marcin Gortat, ORL _ 63 20.3
6 Andris Biedrins, GSW _ 62 20.2
7 Greg Oden, POR _ 61 20
8 Andrew Bogut, MIL _ 36 19.4
9 Antonio McDyess, SAS _ 62 19.3
10 Emeka Okafor, NOR _ 82 19

by ocho-ocho on Oct 13, 2009 11:31 PM PDT reply actions