Podcast Returns
by Dave on Jan 8, 2009 12:34 PM PST
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PrintAfter the holiday layoff the Trailblazers.com podcast returns with Casey Holdahl from the Center Court Blog, Gavin Dawson from 95.5 The Game and myself. This week we talk about Jerryd Bayless, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, possible discontent among team members, the Blazers' playoff chances, and the recent and forthcoming games, just to name a few things.
You can download the podcast here or click on Casey's link above to stream it.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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also, did anyone else pick up on Rip and Roy wearing the same jacket last night (albeit in different colors)? Embarrazzing!!!
carmelo was wearing a heat colored suit last night
but the nugs still won.
Activate Shavlik Randolph
Can't have too much...
Blazers stuff!
Thanks Dave and co.
portlandmenonsports.blogspot.com
by Derek @Portland Men on Sports on Jan 8, 2009 12:56 PM PST reply actions
lol @ Gavin saying Blazers misses playoffs
Caught on Video
She moves along a painted wind
The moon is on the rooftop
The street is like an ocean
But she always flays her arms when she's dancin' so slow
WORD UP. STAY. FRESCO.
love his optimism...
obviously, Gavin hasn’t been reading BE regarding strength of schedule…saying Dallas will have a better record in the 2nd half.
"Step up to my mic!!!" Joel's right and left fist
There's a fallacy in his thinking.
It seems that in his mind, if you think the Blazers are going to make it, then that means you have to think some other particular team among the top 9 is not going to make it. But that’s not true at all. According to Hollinger, all 9 teams have at least a 72% chance of making it, and I think that is about right. Each of them will probably make it. And yet, one won’t. Slightly tricky math there, but it does work of course.
So if you ask, will the Blazers probably make it, the answer is yes. But the answer is also yes for Dallas and Utah and Phoenix and all those other teams.
that would be "phallacy"
which really should be a word
The inbound to McGinnis, drives, stops, pumps, shoots, short, no good...AND THE GAME IS OVER! ~ Bill Schonely
by SandbergOnSports on Jan 8, 2009 6:52 PM PST up reply actions
your AK1984, Hmmm, I'm Andrew Kenneth and was born in 1982
did you read that second definition? I don’t think Andrew got the long end of the stick… Poor Andrew…
* "Chick flicks are illegal in my house... the only girly thing my girl watches is Project Runway." Which Blazer yelled this out in the locker room? Who else? Channing Frye. I know that's going to be somebody's signature.
by BlazermaniacAndy on Jan 9, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions
Nope, a fallacy is a misleading falsehood.
Phallus, however, is an image of the penis.
It’s like the difference between fillet and fellate.
Yah
Seriously, you can drive yourself crazy (and get yourself in a lot of trouble) by watching the standings too early. The last month of the season, sure, you start rooting for losses from other teams and counting games ahead and behind. Right now all that matters is how the Blazers play, pure and simple. Somebody’s going to stumble. The Blazers’ only job is to make sure it isn’t them no matter what anybody else does or doesn’t do.
—Dave
I know
I actually sound like Charles Bronson in real life but Casey gets jealous and COMPLETELY turns down the bass on my line. Seriously sad…
—Dave
actually
The math in this discussion was in correct.
We are 7 games over 500 now and I believe it was dave who said if we a re a few games above 500 the rest of the way we win 52.
Thats not correct….You must divide by 2…
52 wins is 22 games over 500. (52 wins 30 losses.)
Still a great interview.
Well not really
500 is 41 games (41 wins and 41 losses)
We are 7 over now at 21 wins and 14 losses
There are 47 games left.
If we win half that is 23.5 games and two over 500 would be 25.5 (Say 26)
That would put us at 51 wins. So dave is correct
Better Math
21 + 26 puts us at 47 wins, not 52. I would see that as a very solid year for the Blazers.
Benno
yea we have to go
31-16 for the rest of the year to be at 52-30. Which means we have to win almost twice as many as we lose, eesh, that is still a tough row to hoe.
Jaws were hitting the floor as Greg repeatedly attempted to tear the rim off the backboard...
Math FTW
Portland is 21-14. Some scenarios. 47 games left.
Win half (rounding up) our remaining games.
45-37. Solid, but maybe not playoff bound in the West. (Barring a collapse from someone else.)
Continue current pace. (3:2 ball.)
49-33. Good, should make the playoff in this year’s West.
Play 2:1 ball the rest of the season.
52-30. Also good, if this doesn’t make the playoffs, wow.
Play 3:1 ball the rest of the season.
56-26 or 57-25. Home court advantage, although this is unlikely.
Obviously Portland’s schedule is favorable the rest of the way. Tough games left, but I can’t see Portland doing worse than their current pace. (49-33) That means if Portland improves even a little bit they’ll hit the 50 win mark. Things do point in favor of this happening.
1. Young teams play better as the year goes on. (Look at how many teams have been on pace for record losses 30-40 games into season and then won 15 games.)
2. The record gets a lot more favorable. Still plenty of tough games, but more home games and more OKC!
Right now I’m thinking 52-30 looks like a legit pick for ending the season. Injuries, trades, etc. could change this of course. The question is: Is 52 wins a 9 seed of a 4 seed in the West?
looking at the schedule i see
19 games that are going to be really tough, we pretty much have to win against every single team that we are supposed to beat, and then steal three games from teams that are supposed to beat us (or play us even) to get to 52.
Jaws were hitting the floor as Greg repeatedly attempted to tear the rim off the backboard...
hopefully we've seen the last of our injuries this season.
It doesn't mean you should just because you can. Like Abraham and Ishmael, fighting over sand - it doesn't mean you should just because you can. That is a fact of life. - Adrian Belew
3/19?
I’d prefer if we won 8-10 out of those 19. Play at least close to .500 ball against the upper level competition. This gives us 5-7 games that we can drop against the scrubby teams because nights like that do happen.
19/19
I’d prefer it if we won 19 out of those 19, but that doesn’t make those games any less difficult. All I am saying is that I was breathing a sigh of relief that we got out of the first part of our schedule, and then to turn around and see how much work there is left still, geeze.
Jaws were hitting the floor as Greg repeatedly attempted to tear the rim off the backboard...
Criteria?
My point is we’re not going to go 28-0 against the crapper and 0-19 against the good teams.
I’d have to see your criteria of the tough games for those 19, but going 9-10 vs the good competition and 22-6 in the should win games seems legit. Again this is barring any more serious injuries or trading OAR for Robert Pack.
Value?
Yea I was just pointing out that we are going to have to win either a lot of games against good teams, or completely demolish the bad teams to make it to 52 wins. I wasn’t setting up a possible Blazer’s record or anything. If we went 0-19 against good teams, then we shouldn’t even care if we made it to the play-offs, because we would be eliminated 4 games later.
Jaws were hitting the floor as Greg repeatedly attempted to tear the rim off the backboard...
Thanks Dave! Good pod cast!
Liked what you say about Bayless currently at the point right now in his learning curve where the court vision isn’t quite there and when the game “slows down” (in his head) then the Blazers will be able to use his athleticism and good times will follow. I hope JB sticks around here as I love his CUT THROAT attitude. He is going to continue to work his butt off and get better and better. Go Blazers!
good podcast, dave
it’s funny how much more nuanced opinions become when they bounce off or rub against others — i more or less agreed with you on everything, which isnt always 100% true in the roughshod day-to-day.
anyone here who hasnt listened, you ought to… it’s entertaining and goes by quickly. good stuff.
ignacio
Vurry Vurry good podcast Dave.
Gavin was lightweight today for some reason. He went easy on Greg when I was certain he could unload about Oden’s defense and then he lets the Travis issue off the hook for a more benign topic of Batum’s future. Also seems everyone is <3ing Batum, which is nice to see.
The playoff issue arose again and some of Gavin’s homerism cynical semi ‘im a victim" ranting appeared when he stated that the only reason the Blazers don’t get to the playoffs b/c there are still too many better teams.. not much to that argument except to counter that all the Blazers need to do is get Brandon healthy and win games. Take each game at a time, play at the pace they are at win a couple more and I say we are in. We had our difficult half of the season stretch of games so just one game at a time, matchup by matchup it’s all that can be done, beside Trade Travis and Channing and RLEC :)
So yeah, Dave, Casey and not Gavin
Sophia
Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare
Favorite part of the podcast is when Dave almost utters and expletive when discussing Oden and his Zone D positioning last night
“what the he— heck is doing out there on the wing..?”
I laughed out loud
Sophia
Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare
It was refreshing
to hear a little more realistic perspective regarding a couple of our rookies.
Like ignacio, I think I agreed with all the points you made Dave.
Good session.
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Yup! I screwed up!
I used two different definitions of “above .500” in the same example. That’s what happens when you try to calculate those things on the fly and on the air. Everybody else has done a fair job of explaining the actual math so I won’t bother with it here.
What I meant was…
The Blazers are on track right now to win 49 games and it’s hard to imagine them doing worse in the next few months than they have early on. Therefore it’s not unimaginable if they play 2-3 games better over the next few months (better than they have, not “over .500”) that they’ll be over 50 wins.
—Dave
Going way too in depth on possible record.
Okay, I broke down Portland’s games so far into 5 categories and what our record is in each so far.
Tough Homes Games (667+ teams) 2-1 (GR:4)
Mild Home Games (500-667 teams) 6-2 (GR:7)
Easy Home Games (Sub 500 teams) 5-1 (GR:13)
Tough Road Games (500+ teams) 3-9 (GR:9)
Easy Road Games (Sub 500 teams) 5-1 (GR:14)
One nice thing to look at it our Games Remaining.
Home we’ve played 11 winning, 6 losing so far. Remaining is 11-13.
Road we’ve played 12 winning 6 losing so far. Remaining is 9-14.
Started 23-12 and ending 20-27. Very favorable.
Now looking at the percentage that we beat each category, Portland will win 32.6 games the rest of the year. This gives Portland 53 or 54 wins to end the season, actually higher than my recent prediction of 52.
Naturally this doesn’t take into account injuries, which teams we’ve played, etc. I also don’t think Portland will go 12-2 on the road against losing teams to finish the year, although it’s possible and would be awesome. The reality is that some of these losing record teams are getting better and aren’t all that bad in the first place. (Bucks for example.)
However, I’m also really hoping that Portland can win more than the projected 2 of 9 on the road against +500 teams. Lakers, Celtics, Magic are all out of the equation now, so the second half of +500 games should be a little bit easier. Hopefully we can grab 3-5?
Still, at the current pace they are playing, Portland wins 53.6 games, a lot higher than their projected 49 simply because of the difficulty of the schedule so far.
Disclaimer: As with any probability stuff, it cannot be fully trusted. If Portland loses to Charlotte on their road trip they not only lose that game, but their projected total vs losing teams on the road drops by 3.5 games. Leading to a 50 win season instead of a 53-54 win season.
Richard Anderson story
When I was at UC Santa Barbara in the early 80’s I often played pick-up volleyball against him. As you can imagine volleyball was big in S.B. and a 6-10 future NBA player made for a powerful spiker. I don’t remember all the times he pasted me but I do remember making one (just one) highly respectable blocks. Otherwise he was bit of a snarky playground bully, but I cheered for him as a Blazer.
Spanish Main: The point of departure for enormous wealth in the form of gold, silver, gems, spices, hardwoods, hides, alley-oops, assists and three pointers.
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