A question about pace

I have been wondering why different people (ie Knickerblogger.net vs Hollinger) have different pace numbers… and it may be due to differences in handling exactly this situation… but I know for a fact that at least some metrics don’t consider it a change in possession unless the other team gets the ball. This isn’t great for measuring pace (may partly explain why PDX has such a slow pace— we are the best offensive rebounding team in the league), but its the right way to do it as far as offensive efficiency goes— scoring on your 5th shot of the possession is just as good as scoring on the 1st.

or shots per 48 minutes would be a better way to measure pace? Rebounding would certainly appear to skew the equation if pace is based on possessions.

about this exact thing happening and becoming a glaring flaw of the offense. However, when you are as young as the team is it is hard to have a reliable fast-break mentality simply because it takes experience to execute reliably. A good example of this was the beginning of last season when Nate was repeatedly saying they wanted to play a more fast-paced game. When it was tried, it was picked apart pretty quickly by opposing defenses and he had to resort to returning to the half-court offense.

With Rudy, the improvement of Sergio and the addition of Batum who seems more than capable of keeping up on a fast-break, its easier to run this season, but not with the second unit as it is comprised in Brandon’s absence with Sergio and Pryzbilla left as the only ones really capable.

Obviously Brandon will bring a lot of that back with him, but Martell’s return is what I believe will really increase the pace of the game.

by folks in San Antonio, who know what picante sauce is supposed to taste like.

There’s not 100 percent consensus amongst the APBRmetrics community with regards to possessions, but pretty much anywhere you see the figure quoted, it is referring to that definition.

I used to be a holdout to the alternative view, and still use the other definition — known as “minor possessions” or “plays” so as to be distinguished from possessions — but have slowly come completely around. Good offense should lead to offensive rebounding and the same is true at the defensive end.

For example, when Brandon Roy drives and draws the center over, leaving Joel Przybilla or Greg Oden alone on the weak side for a putback if Roy’s shot misses, isn’t that part of the offense? On the same note, the failure isn’t really one of rebounding so much as the defense breaking down at the point of attack.

Another advantage of this definition is it means teams have roughly the same number of possessions in the game, the exceptions being related to end-of-quarter shots.

The discrepancy between Hollinger’s pace numbers and KnickerBlogger’s has to do with the various formulas used to estimate possessions.