SUMMARY INFO (rehashed)

Four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).
3. Road games at losing teams.
4. Road games at winning teams. 

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1, a majority of Cat 2 and Cat 3, and win some in Cat 4.  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Discussed further by ulc and here. 

Two Weeks Ago

Last Week

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

NJ turned into a losing team this week, which helped some teams and hurt others.  This has been discussed previously, so I won't waste time on it.

Since last week, Portland lost one Cat 4 in L.A. and went 1-1 in Cat 2 (Boston and New Orleans, losing some ground.  No really bad losses, though.  We were helped by a NJ bonus.

Dallas went 2-0 in easy Cat 1 games, and lost a Cat 3 at Memphis.  The loss at Memphis wipes out their NJ bonus.

Denver continues to play well, losing a Cat 4 (Atlanta) but winning two Cat 3s and a Cat 2 (N.O.).  N.O. was on a back-to-back and without their head case center.  Denver moves up.

Houston takes a big hit, splitting Cat 1s against Washington(!!!) and Milwaukie, and losing a Cat 4 at Atlanta and a Cat 3 at Toronto (who seems to be starting to play up to talent level).  Bad week for them.

L.A. went 2-0, both Cat 2s against Utah and us.

N.O. definitely improved their position, winning a Cat 1 and splitting two Cat 4s against us and Denver.

Phoenix took care of business this week, winning two Cat 3s against bottom feeders and one Cat 1.  They took a big NJ hit because of their earlier home loss to the Nets, more than wiping out the benefit of expected wins against weak teams.

The Spurs dropped slightly in the projections, due to only splitting home games against losing teams (they lost to Milwaukie).  They also won at Memphis, and Dallas managed yesterday to make a road win at Memphis sound impressive.  They got a NJ bonus which kept them from really falling.

Utah did about as expected, winning a Cat 1 and losing a Cat 4 (at L.A.).  They took a big NJ hit.  They play 3 home games this week, and all are winnable, but two are tough (Detroit, N.O. who will be on a back to back).  This is definitely a week for them to begin to make a move, but if they don't win all three, they drop further.

Helped themselves:  Denver, L.A., N.O.

Treading water: Phoenix, Utah.

Hurt themselves:  Portland, Dallas, Houston, S.A.

The tables:

Cat 4

Only Houston and Denver are close to us in games played in this category.  The others have a lot more of these hardest games ahead.

Cat 3

Dallas and Houston took losses on the road against losing teams this week.  In general, teams are still taking care of business in these games.  This will be a big key for our playoff chances and seedings -- we have a lot of road games left against losing teams, which should generally be winnable.  How well we do in those games will tell a big part of the story.  We were able to win at N.Y.  Not every team which claims to be good can say that.

Cat 2

The N.O. loss hurt us in this category.  Note that we are now second only to Phoenix in these games -- in general, our rivals have a few more difficult home games left than we do.  A split in the N.O./Boston games was no surprise, and no major setback.

Cat 1

Houston and S.A. each lost one of these games this week.  Hopefully, that makes us feel better about the Clips loss.  Phoenix, N.O., Portland, and Dallas are the teams with a lot of these games left.

All Home Games

Not a lot to see here, L.A. and S.A. both have fewer home games remaining.  The Spurs are a good road team, and we aren't catching the L@kers this year anyway.  We still have a good home record, but some others have gained on us.

All Away Games

Houston and Denver have fewer road games left.  Utah has the same number as we do, but most of them are against winning teams. 

All Games Against Winning Teams

Against winning teams, only L.A., Houston, and N.O. have a better overall record than we do.  Also, there is a huge disparity in number of games played -- we have played 22 of our games against winning teams, while no one else has played more than 18.  We have less than half of our games against winning teams left (20), while Dallas has 28 remaining, and Utah 27.  This is one of the reasons the spreadsheet doesn't like Dallas and Utah -- they have a lot more hard games left than we do, and they should have put space between us and them while we were playing so many winning teams.

All Games Against Losing Teams

Against losing teams, Denver, S.A., L.A., Phoenix, and N.O. have better records than us (Dallas drops out of that list).  We have more games left against losing teams than anyone, with only Phoenix, N.O., and L.A. even close. 

Back to Back Games

We still have the least remaining back to back games, and arguably the easiest remaining schedule in this factor (Houston and S.A. are close), but all of ours finish with a road game.  Utah still has the most brutal road ahead on these games, by far.   

A Bonus This Week

Because I'm such a nice person, I give you a free New Year's gift -- Winning/Losing standings.  What are Winning/Losing standings, you ask?  They are the biggest reason I'm still extremely optimistic about our chances.  Here, in a nutshell, you can see how many games have been played against winning teams, and how many against losing teams -- and how many are remaining.

Note the 22-12 disparity between winning and losing teams in our schedule so far, and the 20-28 disparity in our remaining schedule.  Look at Utah and Dallas -- it's almost exactly reversed.  Only N.O. and Phoenix are on the positive side in this by more than one game, and there's still a significant gap between us and them.

That is the best indicator of the brutality of our schedule so far -- 22 of 34 games against winning teams, 12 of those 22 on the road.  That means more than a third of our games so far have been road games against winning teams -- and we're still in playoff position.  If we were 3-4 games out of playoff position right now, we could still be said to have a decent chance.

That's the Boring Stuff

Here's the thing you really cared about:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but we don't want to discuss that.

Playoff seedings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa (is that enough disclaimers)?

1. L.A. -- 67.0 wins.  They are still evil, even if it isn't 666 this week. 
2. N.O. -- 55.7 wins.  Big move up for them.
3. Denver -- 54.6 wins.  Also moved up.  A good week for them despite the Atlanta loss.  Too bad they didn't manage to lose to OKC, that would have been classic. 
4. Portland -- 53.3 wins, down from 3rd with 54.2.  Last week, I said, "If we're still this high next week, it means we won 2 of the 3 killers this week.  If we do that, the Negative Nancy posters around here will be sentenced to two weeks as fans of OKC."  You Negative Nancys dodged a bullet when Brandon got hurt, and we dropped a little.  We have two home games this week.  With Brandon hurt, one win out of the two would be ok, it will keep us in the hunt.  If we can get them both, we'll rebuild some of last week's damage, and be a step closer to banishing some people to OKC fanhood.  You have been warned.
5. S.A. -- 52.6 wins.  The spreadsheet punished them for a home loss, but rewarded them for NJ's losses, so they hardly dropped.  I could complain about the stupid spreadsheet, but it rewarded us for NJ's losses, too.
6. Houston -- 51.0 wins.  In general, teams that want a high seed should try to avoid 1-3 weeks, especially if they include blowout losses to Toronto and, more especially home losses to Washington.  Gee, WIZ, fellas.  The spreadsheet didn't like your week.
7. Phoenix -- 49.5.  Due to NJ's losses, we have three teams projecting below 50 wins this week.  Phoenix got punished because they lost at home to NJ, which looks really bad to the spreadsheet if the Nets are a losing team, just so-so if they are a winning team.  The reality for Phoenix is probably somewhere between last week's 52.7 projection and this week's 49.5.
8. Dallas -- 49.1.  Just when you thought Dallas was showing us that they really are better than their bad start and really as good as they've been their last 20 games, they do their best to lose at home to Minnesota (but the T-wolves have this losing thing down pat, and the Mavs couldn't overcome that), and then throw a real clunker at Memphis.  Will the real Dallas stand up?  If they'd managed to lose that game to Minnesota, the spreadsheet would have them right down there close to....
9. Utah -- 44.5 wins.  The spreadsheet doesn't give much credit for a home win against Philly, nor punish them much for a road loss at L.A.  But it is very unhappy that their home loss to NJ now counts as a loss to a losing team, and that their road win at NJ no longer counts as a road win over a winning team (they only have one of those now, at Detroit).  They are probably being unduly punished for NJ, and if I was smart enough, or at least not too lazy, to make the spreadsheet reflect teams near .500, they might come out closer to 46 wins.  On the other hand, their brutal back to back schedule ahead is not reflected in these projections. 
 

So there it is after last night's games, everything you always wanted to know about upcoming schedules, and a lot of things you didn't want to know, wish you didn't know, and hope to never know again.  Project at your peril.  If shuppatsu can post his updated SOS numbers soon, I'll edit to link to his post and paste them in here as well so you have it all in one place, if that's ok with him. 

Each of the last couple of weeks, there's been an error in the post.  Please let me know if you see anything, and I'll fix it.