The problem with NOT making a deal
by northwestj on Jan 30, 2009 9:45 PM PST
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PrintI don't want to make another post that speculates about who the quick chat targets are, or who they aren't, but rather I wanted to check out the rational behind making a deal before the break, and not making a deal.
Regarding a trade, there are a few theoreticals that we would have to get out of the way, such as who we're giving up and who is coming in. Obviously, if LBJ is getting sent over, you do the deal no matter how you feel about midseason deals, but that's not what I'm getting at. Let's assume it's an acceptable deal that makes the team better in the short term, doesn't sacrifice their long term potential, and fits the opposing team's needs as well (which will probably be cap relief and a couple nice, young players).
I've seen several of these acceptable-level deals that have been suggested on this, but there are still quite a few folks out there who seems to be really insistent on not making a deal and getting the cap space. The thing I don't understand, is how this approach is categorically better than making a deal?
By passing up an offer that fits the scenario above (good for me, good for you) in order to be a player in free agency, isn't that simply rolling the dice, getting a 4, and deciding that you'd rather roll again than keep the 4? There is no guarantee anything better is going to come up, and if you consider the odds of rolling higher than a 4 (read: upper level SF), the smart money is on taking the play when available. Poker Heads should get this "play the odds" mentality.
At least with a trade, we'll know who is coming in and who is going out. There's no guarantee that anything productive is going to come out of free agency.
This is how I look at the whole situation. Am I wrong? When I say that I don't understand why free agency is a better approach, I'm not belittling it by saying the argument sucks, but rather, I truly don't understand it and want someone to explain it to me.
Holler at the poll and explain why you voted like you did.
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If a solid deal is on the table...
take it.
KP shouldn’t (and won’t) make a trade just to make a trade. We don’t NEED to do anything. But if we can get better at minimal cost, he should pull the trigger.
Come and go already, Trade Deadline!
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jan 30, 2009 9:47 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
This is the best solution.
+ 1 rec for you Mr. You’vegottomakeyourfreethrows.
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on a side note
why is it that everyone uses the phrase “have got”. I hate to be a grammar Nazi, but Nate’s notorious for it and even politicians use the phrase. I feel like English teachers across the country have to be grimacing.
I think they should change the rules.
It wouldn’t sound right if you said, “You’ve to make your free throws,” now would it?
"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car"
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Feb 1, 2009 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
I'm right there with you.
If a trade is available that would improve our chances of winning a(few) championship(s), bring it home.
If it’s Felton and Morrison, run away! ;P
Which approach is the best way to improve the Blazers roster?
Where’s option e?
E) Trust K.P.
If you agree with me: Good, I like being agreeable.
If you [think you] don't agree with me: You really do agree with me. You just haven't realized that I use sarcasm alot, so whatever you didn't agree with, take the opposite of it, and that's what I really mean.
The problem with your analogy
is that, when you roll the dice again, if it doesn’t come up with four or better, you can just ignore it and roll again.
KP is probably going to have between 50 and 500 options (trade or FA) to improve the team between now and the 2010 trading deadline (when our cap space flexibility finally goes away). The overwhelming majority of those rolls of the die will be 1s, with some 2s in there as well, but KP can just ignore those and roll again, and again, and again….
It would be foolish to wait for a six (a Marcus Camby-type deal) on that die roll if a five is on the table, but the odds are pretty good you are going to see either a five or a six before this phase of the game is done.
Now, if we hit the end of the summer, the game is getting shorter, and you have fewer rolls left. By that time, if a five or six hasn’t come along, you take a four.
Now? There’s the double hit of mid-season disruption of a good team which is playing well AND the lost opportunity to possibly get a five or six later. I wouldn’t take a four today, but I would take a five.
The reasons you would jump sooner:
1. Channing (and probably to a lesser degree Ike) still probably have at least some market value, and if you don’t trade them before the trade deadline, you have a high probability of wasting that asset. Neither is likely to get the qualifying offer, which means they can walk away and go to a team that will give them a chance to earn some minutes.
2. Unless the Miles cap space is reinstated, RLEC gives us more cap flexibility than we will have later, unless we renounce even more players.
3. RLEC is particularly attractive to potential trading partners because of the insurance, and that asset goes away if not used now.
Neither #2 or 3 will turn a four on the die into a five or six, but they do make it more likely that a five or six will turn up now, rather than later. So maybe that reduced possibility of a five or six later means you accept a 4.5 now (if you have that kind of dice).
I do think we’re in such a position of strength that we can look for more than just a solid deal at this point in time. We have so many assets, both financial and young talent, that can help the other team that we can look for something really good in return, something that will substantially improve us while helping the other team as well.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Jan 30, 2009 10:49 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
I say
do a deal, get over the cap now.
Then sign a backup PF in ’10 with the MLE (Carl Landry baby!)
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A
more second round picks
between KP’s deals and Paul Allen’s money, I don’t want any other teams drafting after #20.
by abdelnaby on Jan 30, 2009 11:25 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
here are some thoughts
First off yes Raef is the “super expiring” until Feb 20 and then he is just capspace and we all know how much of a boon that extra cash saved may or may not be.
Making a move before the deadline may net the most value for RLEC, however many trading pieces will also have more value as well.
As of now it seems that only crap teams with horrible financial situations/cheap owners are our most targeted trading partners and that should be true again up until the end of the season.
Now you do not want to trade a talented player for a adalary dump and a young prospect who has never been in the playoffs if you are a team that is gearing up for the upcoming playoffs, right? Even if the player was vastly overpaid and has not lived up to expectations, he would not be worth trading talent for savings and not having him on the roster come playoff time.
Now lets say some vet team makes it into the playoffs and gets swept in the 1st round and just gets thoroughly trashed and embarrassed in the process. The fans are calling for the head of the coach and the players are revolting and it is a bad situation to be in for a formerly good team, like say the Pistons.
The crap teams with cheap owners would still be around, but now there are teams that decide to blow it up after getting trounced in the 1st round and a lot more players become available.
Even though the 5m in savings RLEC would of brought would be gone, PA could take 3m of the 5m he saved on Raef and pass that on to the new team. PA pockets 2m in the process and KP gets a better piece than before.
We can trade one of our cheap pieces, Sergio, TO, Webs, Ike and/or Frye in S&Ts and just take back the extra $$ with our 8m in cap space. We do not have to worry about salary fillers, we can just take back Wallaces/Feltons 15m or Deng/Hinrichs 20m and give out Webster/Sergios/Ikes 10m.
Here is the thing: there will either be a BIG trade that we are all like, “OMG, KP DID WHAT AND GOT WHO?!?! HOW?!?!?!” or there will be no trade at all and we will sit on the savings and go at it as I mentioned above.
In addendum, we NEED to add in our 09 and 11 1sts as what are we going to do with another rookie/teenager that needs PT to develop?? We already have a young team and have foreign prospects in the wings if we need an infusion of youth. They are of little value to us and if we can use them to net us a better overall player then by all means throw them in to seal the deal, besides if we need a 1st we can just buy one for 3m, not to mention that the high 2nds we have are almost more valuable as you do not have to guarentee their salaries, yet you can get a great player with the 31-35 picks and it is even better for Euros as you can sign them mfor as much as you want and do not have to worry about them having offers of 4m/yr when you can match that if you feel it is worth it.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
by SpyderRyder on Jan 31, 2009 12:33 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Well,
I think we have one possible point guard of the future in Jerryd, but if we stand pat at the position trade-wise, I’d really like to see KP move a few slots (from 22 to 18, according to draft express) and grab Darren Collison. I think he’s got a real shot to develop into what the Blazers need in the next few years. Plus, he’s a senior, so he wouldn’t nearly the learning curve of a normal rookie PG.
And, generally, with the way KP has been using his late round draft choices (Batum and Rudy), I really see our draft picks as being valuable. San Antonio has had a lot of success in the late first round as well (more than us, actually, with Parker and Hill) so I really think our picks are valuable.
There seem to be two diametrical different schools of thought, and both argue with the Darius Miles situation
1. Make a deal now or never
Chris Sheridan, ESPN, talking about the biggest non-player assets in the NBA including expiring/insured contract (we could have about 8 million in cap space if the cap is at $60 million – if we let Ike and Channing go which is not a given):
With Darius Miles now taking up $9 million in cap space that the Blazers thought they’d have this summer, they can no longer set their summer sights on a max-level free agent. If they want someone of that caliber, packaging LaFrentz with one or two of their youngsters — Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless — might be their best route toward landing a player who will make them a legitimate championship-contending threat in the West this spring.
2. Stand pat and (maybe) make an acquisition later
Brian Henrdickson, Columbian, No trade best for Blazers (although he only assumes $7 million in cap space):
But that unexpected $9 million of Miles’ salary — nearly $3 million more than any other active Blazer will make this year — changes the landscape. The Blazers still have options, but most of them require LaFrentz’s salary to expire while under Portland’s books.
So what do they need? Only this: Time to let these young pieces develop and see how they fit. And that means holding onto LaFrentz’s contract, allowing it to expire, making a patient, intelligent decision this summer, and reaping the financial benefits in the meantime. It’s the best deal the Blazers can make. And it simply requires them to do nothing.
Both have a point. RLEC is a huge asset in the market that might cause several teams to give up really good players that improve the biggest needs immediately (see the Jason Quick rumor) and would not be available for longer-running contracts even if those were better players. We can also bundle in other expiring contracts if a team wants more cap relief (Ike, Channing, technically even Steve and Travis), bringing up the salary we can match into the upper echelons. We will not be able to acquire player(s) commanding such a big salary ever again. Not in the summer of 2009 with the acquisition of a free agent once Raef is off the books (in a trade, you can go/stay over the cap just by matching salaries). Not at the 2010 deadline. And not in the summer of 2010 when the new contracts of Roy and LaMarcus begin and those big-ticket free agent targets unfortunately are more plentiful.
Getting Darius back on the cap has decreased the flexibility enough to have an impact on decisions and maybe speed up things. Cap space is valuable to acquire free agents and do lopsided deals (which we could still pull off, just not as big ones as now in a trade without giving up more valuable players). But most teams only improve significantly via the draft and trades, not via free agency. A wise man once said big cap space just causes you to overpay for mediocre players. The Sixers, Clippers and Warriors didn’t really improve last off-season with all their cap space now, did they? Okay, they had less time to prepare, but so far their big ticket free agent acquisitions didn’t pay off at all causing more trades to follow.
On the other hand, there is literally no point in making a trade for the sake of making a trade. As Quick said also in his chat, once Raef is gone in a trade, the Blazers really have not that many options left (we would stay over the cap), so it has to be the right move. Some GMs might feel that need to look active in the eyes of their owner and hope for a miracle to not get fired. Pritchard certainly does not fall into that category. He doesn’t panic. He has all the backing in the organization he wants, and with a young roster can wait until the right opportunity comes. If it never comes or worst case he misses it, too bad, the roster will automatically still get better with experience so nobody will really know what could have been.
KP will do the right thing as usual. If a really good deal is on the table, the front office and coach will discuss it to compare it to all other perceived options, and then decide. We will hear in the next month if there was one available. Depending on your school of thought, you can hope there is or there isn’t.
by Norsktroll on Jan 31, 2009 4:40 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
First option is to stand pat and let the guys develop. We think we know what we have but some players develop beyond expectations while others disappoint.
If a deal comes along that improves the blazers in the short term and long term, you would have to consider it.
Most deals offered are going to ask to blazers to take lots of salary and ask for the best of the blazers prospects (Rudy, Bayless, Batum). It wouldn’t be smart to trade these guys without seeing how they will develop.
This team doesn’t need to make a deal in order to improve substantially in the upcoming years and contend in the playoffs. Few other teams are in this situation.
But if you are getting a very young star
you’d have to consider it.
If Harris (25 years old) were offered, I’d consider including Bayless. (and I’m the biggest B-Rex homer.)
If Iggy (also 25) were offered, I’d consider Batum or even Rudy. Iggy is a unselfish game changer.
But Butler and Prince are 28. I’d have a harder time giving up outstanding young talent for them.
by parkinglotj on Jan 31, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions
cap flexibility is not a bad thing
I’m not a salary cap guru, so please smack me around if I’m way off on this.
It is possible that the Blazers have all of the pieces already in place for a dynastic championship run. This trade talk is all focused on the idea of improving the team NOW, but I think most of us would have to agree that if we can be patient for a few years, a starting lineup of Bayless/Roy/Batum/Aldridge/Oden and a bench unit including Rudy, Outlaw, Webster, Pryz, and Sergio or Blake could very well be a serious title contender. This assumes, of course, that the 4 rookies involved in this equation continue to improve. But they’ve each shown enough promise to give us that hope, right?
So, with that in mind—maybe we should be thinking about RLEC in terms of our future cap flexibility. Yes, we could swing a deal and afford to pick up a higher-salary guy right now. But we all know that we have to max (or close-to-max) Roy and LMA soon. Oden may end up in that same category, and Bayless/Rudy/Batum will certainly be in need of raises if they have lived up to their potential.
So what might be the consequences of trading for a higher-salaried vet right now? If said vet has a contract that extends more than 2 years then aren’t we almost certainly costing ourselves the ability to keep our young pieces in place? If we have to pay the salary of one or two new vets, plus Roy/Aldridge/Batum, that basically leaves us with peanuts to offer to Bayless/Rudy/Batum when their contracts expire.
I agree with jscot about having more chances to “roll the die” this summer. So why mess with chemistry and deprive ourselves of the opportunity of watching this team grow over the remainder of the season? I worry that if we trade for a pricey vet right now, we are improving our short-term chances but shortening our championship window. Plus, if said vet(s) is(are) in his(their) prime right now, we may be expecting too much by hoping that Oden (and to a lesser extent, LMA) can ramp up their games quickly enough to coincide with the best years those vets have left.
We aren’t going to win a series against Boston, Cleveland, or probably LA this year no matter what we do right now. So I firmly believe that the prudent thing is to exercise patience.
You are partly right
But we don’t need the cap space for Roy, LMA and Oden (and Bayless, and Rudy, and…). As four year players on the rookie scale, we will have what is called their “Bird rights” named after Larry Legend. This is essentially an exception that allows you to go over the salary cap (up to the maximum salary for each player with that experience) to re-sign own free agents. So it’s a myth often told by fans of opposing teams that the Blazers won’t be able to keep all their young guys. As long as Paul Allen is willing to pay all those guys (and at some point also pay the luxury tax if we give all three guys close to the max), we are fine.
bird rights
but I thought Bird Rights had some sort of required length of time that a player had to have played for you before you could use them. And I thought that number was 4 years or maybe even higher. And if so, when Oden’s rookie contract runs out, he wouldn’t have played for us long enough to qualify… right? Same with Bayless/Rudy/Batum?
Basically I was thinking Bird Rights were designed to help teams keep guys who would be entering their third contract with the team. Their rookie contracts have run their course, and the team has managed to re-sign them under the cap to a second contract… then if they play through to the end of that contract, they’re obviously an integral part of the team and probably the community/fanbase, so that’s where Bird Rights would come in to prevent teams from losing those types of guys.
And if that’s true, then it seems like we might already have a hard time keeping all of our youngsters 3 years from now. Add another vet salary or two into the mix and it seems almost impossible.
But maybe I’ve got the Bird stuff wrong…
I am fairly certain...
Once you have obtained a player and hold their rights, you can sign them for anything above the cap. The luxury tax is what is supposed to curb this type of spending.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
To qualify as a Bird free agent, a player must have played three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. This means a player can obtain “Bird rights” by playing under three one-year contracts, a single contract of at least three years, or any combination.
In the case of our rookies, we can extend them after three years (then they go on and complete the last year of their rookie scale contracts before beginning the new contract without even becoming free agents) or after four years when they become restricted free agents. Roy and LMA were drafted in 2006, so their rookie scale contracts end in 2010. For Greg it’s 2011, and even though he missed a season he was under contract the whole time and the rules are the same. Rudy was drafted that same year, but his contract started not until 2008 and will go to 2012. Same with Bayless. Martell already got his extension. Travis is already on his second contract, and has the 2009/10 season left before becoming a free agent. More info how long the contracts of our guys run here.
http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09salaries.htm
Bird Rights
basically, anyone who plays under a 3-year or more contract (which includes all 1st round draft picks who are picked up for their 3rd seasons or more), is a Bird free agent – even if they were traded several times during that contract. As long as a guy didn’t change teams as a free agent, and has played 3 straight years, his current team has Bird rights on him.
so, in our case, ALL these guys will be Bird free agents when their contracts are up:
Oden
Pryz
LMA
Frye
Ike
Outlaw*
Martell
Batum
Roy
Rudy
Bayless
Sergio
Blake*
- Assumes we don’t waive them this summer.
You will almost undoubtedly see us sign both Roy and LMA to contract extensions this upcoming summer, even though they still have the 09-10 season on their rookie contracts. The same can be said of Oden in summer 2010. Sergio is also eligible for an extension this summer, but I would consider that unlikely. He still has the 09-10 season under contract and then will be in the same boat as Frye and Ike are now.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
Nothing much left to add
Stand pat unless a deal comes along you can’t turn down. LaMarcus, Roy, Oden, Batum, Blake, Bayless, Outlaw, Webster, Joel, Rudy, and Sergio gives the Blazers a very deep pool of players with all the tools they need to make a run in the next couple of years.
KP should renounce Ike and Frye and let RLEC expire this summer. Look for a guy nearing the end of his career who can contribute if needed but understands his primary role is to help a young team learn how to play in the playoffs. Invite Randolph back to camp if he doesn’t get a deal with another team. Bring the euros over to play in summer league and get them into camp if they are ready.
So your roster next year is the 11, plus a veteran, plus a draft pick or two and a euro or two.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
So, if you voted to keep RLEC and shop this summer
Which of these 2009 NBA free agents are you interested in?
Allen Iverson (almost certain to re-sign with Denver)
Rasheed Wallace
Baron Davis (if he does not exercise the opt out in 2008)
Elton Brand
Lamar Odom
Kobe Bryant (option)
Jason Kidd
Stephon Marbury
Jamal Crawford (player option for 09/10 and 10/11 – 50/50)
Eddy Curry (player option for 09/10, 10/11 – 50/50)
Hedo Turkoglu (player option for 09/10, unlikely)
Andre Miller
Steve Nash (player option, unlikely)
Grant Hill
Steve Francis
Ron Artest (can opt out in ‘08)
Mike Bibby
Carlos Boozer (player option for 09/10 unlikely)
Mehmet Okur (player option for 09/10 unlikely)
The Rookie Contracts: (most of these guys will be resigned by their current teams)
Marvin Williams (restricted)
Raymond Felton (restricted)
Jason Maxiell (restricted)
Luther Head (restricted)
Danny Granger (restricted)
Andrew Bynum (restricted)
Hakim Warrick (restricted)
Andrew Bogut (restricted)
Charlie Villanueva (restricted)
Rashard McCants (restricted)
Nate Robinson (restricted)
David Lee (restricted)
Channing Frye (restricted)
Jarrett Jack (restricted)
Francisco “Paco” Garcia (restricted)
Kirk Hinrich > Mike Bibby or Andre Miller
Luol Deng > Hedo Turkoglu
Right now, KP could get both Hinrich and Deng. This summer, he MIGHT be able to get just Turkoglu
Pull the trigger, now.
KP could also opt to acquire a player with an expiring contract in 2010 (like Larry Hughes) and play this same game of craps next February
Should've removed the old Iverson-Denver comment
My bad, if there’s any other “updates” to the FA list, be sure to tell me about them
I'm DEFINITELY
in the camp of we should trade now.
In addition to that list being unimpressive (not really a guy I like on that FA list except Turkoglu, who’s probably gonna go back to ORL anyway), we have to sign a guy for the amount remaining under the cap room ($7-$8M), or do a sign and trade. Turkoglu isn’t signing for $8M, and neither are most of those other guys, unless we’re giving them more years than we probably want. If we do the sign and trade, we’re still going to have to give up some of our assets to swing the deal.
I agree that Hinrich is a better long term option than any PG on that list, and his contract goes down each of the next three years ($9.5M, $9M, and $8M, respectively), for those who have reservations about his contract. In fact, his contract#‘s going down is pretty adventageous to Paul Allen, since we’ll be closer to the tax in the next three years. Hinrich’s a vet, he’s committed to D, he can shoot the open 3, and he can get his own shot. He can play the 2 (when Brandon takes the point), and he can always guard the 1. What an ideal compliment to Brandon Roy.
Hollinger’s Scouting Report for Hinrich
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?playerId=1981
In regards to the dice analogy, we have some options now that we won’t have in the summer, such as a potential Hinrich/Deng deal, or Jefferson/Sessions deal. (I see the Nets possibility as remote, at best). The
One other thing – check out Hollinger’s scouting reports on Deng and Nocioni. Based on Hollinger’s analysis of each guy’s game, which one do you think fits the Blazers offense better?
Deng
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?playerId=2429
Nocioni
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?playerId=2456
One can’t hit the 3, the other can. One can puts the ball on the floor to penetrate or posts up on offense, the other is a hard-nosed defender. The 3 in our offense needs to space the floor and be able to hit the open 3. Deng can’t do that. 9-3ptr’s in two seasons? I agreed that when compared directly to each other, Deng has the higher upside, and is the better player. But when it comes down it, Nocioni “fits” what the Blazers need more.
none
let RLEC expire, and shop for an unbalanced trade this summer.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
Why is that an advantage?
If we trade RLEC, we’re giving our trading partner an extra $5 Million in cash. Why is it more adventageous to wait until summer, when we can’t offer the same financial benefits. Also, having Sergio on this roster is cutting into Bayless’ playing time, and preventing his accellerated development.
One small point
Phoenix’ current struggles continue, the likelihood of Steve Nash opting out may increase.
If Phoenix misses the playoffs (I’ll be surprised but not shocked) we might be able to pick him up for $8-9 million for a couple years to take a shot at a ring.
I think I could go for that.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
None of the above
or rather, all of the above. The best approach is:
1) Try and get the deal you want now, using RLEC, but you can afford to be greedy and don’t have to settle. If that fails, then…
2) Try and get the deal you want this summer, using picks, players, and cap space. You can still afford to be a bit greedy and don’t have to settle. if that fails then…
3) Try and get the deal you want next trade deadline, using players and the cap space you held over. You can’t afford to be quite as greedy now, but you still don’t have to completely settle. If that fails then…
4) Try and get the deal you want in summer 2010, using players and any cap space you still retained by not taking on new contracts all this time (even with big new salaries kicking in for Roy/LMA, you can still have $10 million in space). You can’t afford to be as greedy any more, as the 2011 trade deadline is your last gasp at having any space to absorb deals.
Any trade before this year’s deadline has got to be a homerun for us, or at least a triple. this summer, you take a triple, and maybe a good double too. After that, any double that comes along is a good deal.
Obviously the longer we wait, the riskier it is that we aren’t going to get return on value, that the value of guys we have will go down, and that guys we have now will also no longer be under contract to us.
So, I say do a deal now if it’s clearly giving us at least one championship-quality starter and a 2nd rotation player. If not, swing for the fences on draft day, when guys who aren’t on the block now might be.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
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