Per D'oh!

he picked Philly at #5, I can’t see them getting much better than they are, a .500 ball club, without major additions at coach, pg and center, (unless Dalbert reverts back and is good again).

As for the Blazers, I think they could rise to “elite” status just as easily, maybe easier, than both Denver and Utah. Utah, who hollinger loves for their abundance of talent, is only 1 or 2 years further along the pipe than Portland, and they are going to lose Boozer this summer. Denver is good this year and next, but once Billups starts to decline, which could be as soon as next year, they will need reinforcements to just stay competitive. The Blazers are set up for the long haul, they have all their main pieces, their “stars” if you will, they just need the right role players, which are much easier to find than stars.

1. Utah. No way they get to an elite regular season record (55+ wins). The road ahead is too tough. But they have elite talent if Boozer comes back, and thanks to the struggles of some other teams, they’ve got a legitimate chance to escape the 8 seed. And if Boozer comes back strong and gets re-assimilated without causing chemistry problems, they are a legitimate threat to beat anyone in the playoffs. I think Hollinger’s analysis is reasonable, though he doesn’t pay due attention to the difficulty of their remaining schedule.

2. Houston. He says, “Will they? Probably not. But could they?” The answer is obviously yes, if they can get healthy, they are very dangerous.

3. Spurs. I can’t disagree. Very dangerous team, but without a trade, I don’t think they can really contend, I think they just fall short. Dangerous to bet against the Spurs in an odd-numbered year.

4. Nuggets. Here’s my first disagreement with him. Denver wins the division this year, but they aren’t what I’d call elite. Elite to me means that if you win the championship, it isn’t a total shock. It would be a total shock if Denver wins it, even if they end up with 57-58 wins.

5. 76ers. John, you’re scraping the barrel. Oh, you know that yourself, and even admitted it? This team has a better chance of being elite than the Hornets? Better than Phoenix I’ll believe, they are on their way down and Philly on their way up. The 76ers, if they do really well and Brand just fits in seamlessly when he comes back, win 47-48 games, max. New Orleans wins 52-53, minimum, and probably 56 or more. Will anyone be totally shocked if Chris Paul goes crazy and takes his team to the Finals? No. Will anyone in the entire world not be shocked if the 76ers make it? Anyone? Even John Hollinger? This is the old classic: “I’ll do this off the wall call, and everyone will forget it by next year, but if by some incredible miracle they make it to the ECF, everyone will say I’m brilliant.”

I’ll take his first three, and add none to it. There are four elites this year, and three who still might join them.

Portland? Well, IF Greg becomes a consistent 15-12 guy in the second half of the year, and IF Martell comes back healthy and on fire, and IF LMA learns to draw fouls, and IF our baby PGs become so dominant that Steve can’t get a job back, and IF Rudy knocks down 45% on 3s and starts to take it to the hoop, and IF someone actually becomes a backup PF, we could do a lot of damage. Some of those things could actually happen.

There’s a much better chance of Portland being a threat in the playoffs than Philly. And if a couple of those things happen, we might be a bigger playoff threat than Denver, or an injury hampered Houston.

And we have more trade-able assets than anyone, which means we have more potential to improve our team for this year than most have. Whether we will do that or just keep looking for the future, I don’t know.

Philly has been playing well as of late but ther is no way that they will become elite this season. The east has three elite teams(Boston, CLeveland and Orlando) and only Detroit could move into that status. Detroit has been up and down recenlty and so it would look bad to include them on the list. And I’m sure Holinger had to put oune team from the east on the list jsut to appease those silly east coast fans.

As for the west, any of the top 9 could be elite (more so than Philly), but several likely won’t rise to that status. A top ten list of elite teams would have the 3 east teams mentioned and then take you r pick fromt the West top 9. I’d order the west at LAL, SA, NO, Utah, Phoenix, Houston, and Denver as the most probable elite teams (in that order for finals contention). Dallas doesn’t have it and the Blazers won’ t be there until next season (not saying they won’t make playoffs- just won’t be contendors).