It's a win-win situation.

by LicketyBrindle on Jan 21, 2009 10:00 PM PST

Halfway through the season, I just want to point out how great it is to be a Blazers fan.

The Western Conference is tough. There are nine good teams here, nine teams whose fans really expect them to make the playoffs. We are in the mix: Hollinger gives us a 95% chance of making it. That's awesome. But really, does anyone have less to lose than we do? Look around at the other 8 teams.

Phoenix, San Antonio, and Dallas are aging, and watching their windows slowly disappear. If they don't make it this year, they may need to scrap everything and start over.

Houston and Denver keep making early exits in the playoffs. If they don't go deep soon, they may need to scrap everything and start over.

New Orleans and LA need to make it to the Finals - or win - in order for this season to be a sucess. If not, they may need to scrap everything and start over. (Probably not, but some fans will be calling for it.)

But us? We're young. We're talented. Our best days are ahead of us. If we don't make it to the playoffs this year, so what? No big deal. No closing windows, no questions about chemistry, no retooling needed. All we need to do is....wait. We'll make it next year for sure. And the year after that, and the year after that, and so on.

It's a great time to be a Blazers fan. Enjoy it!

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I would say that the Hornets don't need to make it to the finals

to consider this season a success. They aren’t on the same level with Cleveland, Boston, LA and Orlando. I think if they played a hard fought series in the WCF they would be ok.

The L@kers do need to win this year though. After getting embarrassed by Boston in the clincher plus all of the “if only we had Bynum” talk anything less than a ring is going to be a disappointment.

Neither of those teams will scrap anything though

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jan 21, 2009 10:07 PM PST reply actions

really?

How many Finals losses do you think LA will endure before it starts calling for someone’s head?

That’s not a very forgiving market. Maybe only second to the Yankees, they’re expected to win rings or fix the problem.

by LicketyBrindle on Jan 21, 2009 10:15 PM PST up reply actions

What exactly do they 'scrap'?

Kobe, Bynum, Gasol, Phil Jackson? Anything less than 1 of those guys isn’t scrapping. I don’t see LA getting rid of one of those guys after going to the finals. Who are they going to get as a replacement that improves their chances?

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jan 21, 2009 10:18 PM PST up reply actions

If LA

has a weakness exposed in the Finals, they will make a move to fix it. But they aren’t going to scrap that team this year, unless Kobe decides to blow it up and demand big changes. A demanding market doesn’t mean you make changes that will make you worse, when you are on the verge and you’ve got players in their peak.

If they don’t win it all this year or next, you might see big changes, though. Three failures in a row won’t sit well.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 21, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions

right.

So L.A.‘s “Do or Die” year isn’t this year, it’s next. I’ll go with that.

But Portland? Really, this is a team built to compete for championships, what, 5 years from now? Anything until then is gravy. There are other teams built to compete 5 years from now - OKC, Charlotte maybe, Memphis, a few others. It’s really exciting how much better we’re playing than them right now, though. It bodes well.

by LicketyBrindle on Jan 21, 2009 10:50 PM PST up reply actions

5 years is a long time in today's NBA

i’d say the timeline is more like this. at a minimum, we should be in the 2009 playoffs, the 2010 2nd round, and the 2011 WCF. That’s 2.5 seasons from now. After that, we are IN the championship window. We may not make it to the finals every year at that point, but anything less than the WCF after 2011 is a disapppointing season.

if we aren’t competing to at least the WCF on a regular basis by then, then this team core won’t be held intact.

Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.

by douglast on Jan 21, 2009 11:13 PM PST up reply actions

I'd agree with that

Well, sort of. I have to admit I think I’ll be a little disappointed if we don’t make WCF next year. I think we’ll likely be a 2 or 3 seed, and I like our chances in 7 games against the Hornets in the second round.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 22, 2009 12:08 AM PST up reply actions

But in general

I agree with LicketyBrindle’s main idea here. We’re still building for the future, but we’re already accomplishing what some teams could realistically see as their ceiling, while most of our rivals are peaking now, or declining. Maybe Phoenix and Dallas can turn it around and rescue something out of this year, but it’s pretty obvious which direction they are moving, and it isn’t upward.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 22, 2009 12:10 AM PST up reply actions

That was right up the middle, LicketyBrindle

very healthy attitude.

I don’t want Roy to play in the All-Star game. I want him to rest. It hurts to watch him not at full steam

"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy

by Honka Playboy on Jan 21, 2009 10:22 PM PST reply actions

all the cnn/si writers have him on the west

ignacio

by ignacio on Jan 21, 2009 11:08 PM PST up reply actions

A #14 pick would help cure my no-playoffs blues, as well.

The current play off format really doesn’t help the Least. We shouldn’t have gotten a lottery pick last year and we shouldn’t get one this year. The league should take the top sixteen teams and scheduling should be balanced.

by wepto on Jan 21, 2009 10:27 PM PST reply actions

Its very important for us to make the playoffs

We need to start getting that experience.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 21, 2009 10:32 PM PST reply actions

i've heard that argument...

but I don’t see first round exits really helping teams like Denver or Houston. (Or Golden State, for that matter.)

And we’ve seen lots of teams with little or no playoff experience make it pretty far – Orlando, and New Orleans, for example.

I don’t really buy it.

by LicketyBrindle on Jan 21, 2009 10:44 PM PST up reply actions

PS -

we’re going to make the playoffs. It’s just nice to NOT feel like we HAVE to make the playoffs to count this season a success.

No other team with a reasonable chance to make the playoffs (in the West) can say that.

by LicketyBrindle on Jan 21, 2009 10:46 PM PST up reply actions

I disagree

this season is a disappointment if we miss the playoffs.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 21, 2009 11:08 PM PST up reply actions

if we miss, it depends on exactly how

ignacio

by ignacio on Jan 21, 2009 11:09 PM PST up reply actions

not for me

I’ll consider this a disappointing season if we miss the playoffs, period.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 21, 2009 11:12 PM PST up reply actions

if we win last 6 straight, oden 22-10 every game, win 50 games

and tie with dallas… but dont get in because of a tiebeaker, there’ll be a lot of optimism for next year

ignacio

by ignacio on Jan 21, 2009 11:14 PM PST up reply actions

I'll be disappointed though

We shouldn’t need to win our last 6 to get to 50.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 21, 2009 11:15 PM PST up reply actions

that's true

ignacio

by ignacio on Jan 21, 2009 11:16 PM PST up reply actions

i think that one way or another...

a 50 win season would be a success. but it may not be enough to get us into the playoffs.

by LicketyBrindle on Jan 21, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions

I guess so

I’d be shocked if 50 doesn’t make it. I think the 8 seed will win 46-47 and the 9th place team will win 45 or so.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 21, 2009 11:22 PM PST up reply actions

I agree

48-49 will make the playoffs almost certainly. My latest silly projections have three teams below 47. I expect Utah to improve on that, and Phoenix to improve on their current 44, but I don’t see all three improving that much. One of them might.

The other way we might miss the playoffs and which wouldn’t be a huge disappointment is if injuries zap us. It’s a huge disappointment if injuries destroy your chance to make a run at the WCF or something, but if all you were likely getting was a first round exit anyway, it’s a disappointment, but not one of those things that gets etched into your mind forever. Besides, in such a case, karma would dictate that we win the lottery, which would ease the pain.

Actually, I’m convinced injuries are the only way we miss the playoffs. Who knows where we would be if we’d had Martell? I’m pretty sure we beat both Charlotte and Cleveland if Blake is healthy. I doubt we lose to N.O. at home if Brandon is playing. One can only wonder how much Greg’s early season injury slowed his progress. Perhaps we’ve used up our injury quota for the year.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 22, 2009 12:18 AM PST up reply actions

disagree

big disappointment if we dont make it, and I don’t think we can discount the positiver carryover for the player’s psyche and swagger if we do make it, and the negativer carryover if we don’t. Many a sports team with very talented players have fallen into the rut of being unable to break out of the losing track.

Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.

by douglast on Jan 21, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions