SUMMARY INFO (rehashed)

Four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).
3. Road games at losing teams.
4. Road games at winning teams. 

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1, a majority of Cat 2 and Cat 3, and win some in Cat 4.  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Discussed further by ulc and here. 

Last Week

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

NJ stayed a losing team, which helped some teams and hurt others.  This has been discussed previously, so I won't waste much time on it.  As sample sizes increase, this weird factor will decrease in importance, which is good since Milwaukie is threatening to turn into a .500 team and Miami is still within shouting distance of being a losing team.  Philly might get into this conversation, too.

Since last week, Portland won a Cat 2 and a Cat 1.  A solid week, gained some ground.

Dallas went 2-0 in easy Cat 1 games, and lost a Cat 4 at Phoenix and a Cat 3 at the Kings (bad idea).  Lost ground.

Denver won a Cat 1 and split Cat 2s, beating Miami and losing to Detroit.  Little change from last week, they were mediocre at home against winning teams and still are. 

Houston won a Cat 1 (yawn), split Cat 3s (meh), and rescued their week by winning a Cat 4 at Boston.  Some improvement in their position.

L.A. won a Cat 4 and Cat 3 and split Cat 2s, losing to N.O. and beating Miami.

N.O. won a Cat 1 and split two Cat 4s, beating L.A. and losing at Utah.  Helped themselves some. 

Phoenix lost at home to Indiana (oops), beat Dallas at home, and won at the Clips.  Hurt themselves with the Pacers loss.

The Spurs are little changed, with a good win at Miami negating a tough loss at home to Orlando (also beat the Clips at home).

Utah had their first really solid week in forever, winning a Cat 1 and two dangerous Cat 2s.  Definitely helped themselves.

Helped themselves:  Portland, Houston, N.O., Utah.

Treading water: Denver, L.A., S.A.

Hurt themselves:  Dallas, Phoenix.

The tables (now with color!!!):

Cat 4

Houston has now played as many as we have in this category.  Key to the playoff race -- Dallas, Phoenix, and Utah all have many more of these most difficult games left.

Cat 3 

Dallas and Houston took road losses against losing teams for the second week in a row.  This week, we have four (!!!) games in this category.  It would be nice to get at least three of them, which would keep us well ahead of Dallas, Utah, and Houston in the "taking care of business on the road" category.

Cat 2

Utah won 2 of these, and begins to look like a strong home team again.  We got one (Detroit).  Houston has a lot of home games left, but a lot of them are against winning teams.  Note that only L.A. and Utah are better at home against winning teams than we are so far.  Note also that Dallas and the Spurs have been poor in these games, and Denver is only mediocre. 

Cat 1

Phoenix took a loss to Indiana this week.  They have more of these easiest games left than anyone, but if they are only going to win 2/3 of them....

Of the teams we are concerned about other than the Suns, we've got a few more games left in the "should be easy" category than they do.

All Home Games

L.A. and S.A. both still have fewer home games remaining.  Houston has more.  We are virtually tied with Utah for the second best home record, behind L.A., a really good accomplishment considering 11 of our 18 were against winning teams.

All Away Games

Houston has significantly fewer road games left, which will really help them the rest of the way.  L.A., S.A., and Phoenix may drop one or two because of more road games.   

All Games Against Winning Teams

Against winning teams, L.A., Houston, Utah, and N.O. have a better overall record than we do.  Note how many more games we have played against winning teams than our rivals.  This week, we will have none such games, so it would be a very good week to take advantage and start to separate ourselves from the 7-8-9 spots. 

All Games Against Losing Teams

Against losing teams, Denver, S.A., L.A., and N.O. have better records than us (Phoenix drops out of that list).  We have more games left against losing teams than anyone, with only Phoenix and N.O. close. 

Back to Back Games

Houston now has an easier back to back schedule than we do.  Utah's is still the hardest, by far.   

Winning/Losing Standings

How many games have been played against winning teams, and how many against losing teams -- and how many are remaining.

Note that besides Portland, only New Orleans and Phoenix are in the plus territory, as far as having more games left against losing teams than against winning teams, and that they aren't that close to us.  Note also that Dallas (especially) and Utah are on the minus side of the ledger (significantly more games left against winning teams), and those are two teams lagging behind us.

This disparity starts to even out this week, as we play four games against losing teams, all on the road.  Next week, this won't be quite so lop-sided, but we'll still have an over-balance of home games against losing teams -- the easiest kind. 

The Important Stuff

Here is the vital stuff:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but we don't want to discuss that.

Playoff seedings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa (is that enough disclaimers)?

No change in positions this week, but some changes in the numbers.

1. L.A. -- 66.5 wins.  Four tough games coming up.  Losing streak?  We can hope. 
2. N.O. -- 56.7 wins.  Pretty good week for them, very tough week ahead. 
3. Denver -- 54.6 wins.  Unchanged.  Three tough home games for them this week, they need two of the three to maintain position. 
4. Portland -- 54.3 wins, up from 53.3.  Even winning all four this week may not move us up from fourth, but three will probably maintain our position.
5. S.A. -- 53.3 wins.  Marginal move up.  They host the L@kers, and then go on the road against three of the four teams we face this week.  
6. Houston -- 52.0 wins.  Win at Boston rescued their week and improved their position somewhat.
7. Phoenix -- 47.8.  Losses to Indiana at home are not recommended for those wanting to contend.  Only reason they weren't the biggest loser this week was because....
8. Dallas -- 46.5.  The spreadsheet is pretty forgiving about road losses to Phoenix, but following them with a road loss at the Kings is not a good idea.  Especially when the prior week you lost at Memphis.  Blazer fans may appreciate Cuban's comment about the Darius email, but the spreadsheet does not appreciate his team's penchant for losing to weak teams on the road.  Especially when other teams have a good week....
9. Utah -- 46.3 wins.  The best positive move of the weak week, by far.  A few more weeks like that, and they won't be weak -- they were 3-0 at home.  This week, they have to prove they can do it on the road against poor teams.  You don't have to be very good at Cat 4s to make the playoffs, but if not, you've got to get your Cat 2s and 3s.  Last week, they got two of those 2s, this week they have two of the 3s.  The spreadsheet will forgive them if they lose at Dallas on a back to back as long as they do what they should in the other games.   

There it is after last night's games.  Work is going to be heavy for me this week (and for a while), so no promises about doing this next week, but I'll try.

One thing, if anyone knows an easy way to paste stuff in from Excel, please let me know.  When I tried to copy/paste from Excel, really bad things happened.  The first 6 or so of those tables appeared to be fine on preview, but then it totally freaked.  So I ended up pasting into Word from Excel, and then using the Paste from Word button in the SBN WYSIWYG editor.  I know nothing or less about HTML.  What I'm doing works, but it's an extra step, and it would be nice if I could save a little time.