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The QualityPie Sked: Update #4

Back when the schedule first came out, I divvied it up into several Chunks, picking out stretches of games that seemed to have a pattern to them. The fourth chunk has just come to an end, so it's time for a Chunk review, where I note the performance of that section and identify the next Chunk.

First things first: Hello from lovely Portland, Oregon! It's good to be home. I can say no more without going on about it at documentary length. Suffice to say it's been emotionally riveting. Also, if any Bedgers were at The Agency tonight around 5:00 to 6:00, I was the chap at the end of the bar with the Timbers Army scarf and the black shirt with "ODEN" scrawled on it with a bleach pen (drawn in a drunken fit the night of the 2007 draft lottery).

Next, the format of these reviews is gonna change a lot starting now; the first four chunks were long stretches of 6, 8, 11, and 11 games, and the rest of the season is comprised of alternating road trips of 3-5 games and homestands (well, usually stretches with a single road game in the middle of a bunch of home games) of 4-7 games. As such, the chunks are gonna be much less of a journey of the team revealing some level of growth and development, and more just a simple how many games we won and lost, and change in the standings. These reviews will be more frequent, less analytical, more like a balance statement on the account.

Onward! Here's what I had to say in advance of the past month's worth of games:

CREAMPUFF
9 of 11 at home in 30 days
2 home games in 10 days to start

A lot of you called me on the carpet for that CP word, and you all turned out to be correct: This stretch was murderous in the quality of the opponents. Two things made this stretch much harder than I had anticipated: Brandon Roy missed four games (of which we lost two), and Dallas and New Orleans were playing at a much higher level recently than they were for the first month or two of the season. My sense of how tough they'd be to beat was sadly outdated, based on early-season struggles for those two teams which ended weeks ago. Those two teams (like San Antonio) are much tougher now than they were before Thanksgiving, and they got Rose Garden wins to show for their improvement.

So, I expected us to lose 2 or 3 games in this stretch, and we lost four instead. Still, not bad, especially considering that, yes, New Orleans and Dallas are, right now, top-tier (if sub-L[xxx]r) conference rivals, as good as Phoenix and Utah were during the early-season stretch where they went a combined 4-0 against us.

Of course, we did have two extremely killer wins, both in our Royless stretch: The Boston game (less impressive now, in light of Boston's performance lately - they've gone in the opposite direction from Dallas' and New Orleans' improvements lately), and Detroit (who, in contrast, are also much better lately than they were a few weeks ago).

Certainly, viewing this past chunk, you gotta notice less that we played without Roy and won two great games without him but went .500 overall, and pay more attention to the fact that the injury happened, the games were missed, he's back, end of episode. Based on how last night's game went, you know that as of now, this team is in the same state as if the hammy thing never happened. We're rather used to things like Oden's missed season and Martell's aborted comeback, where when a player re-enters the lineup after missing time with an injury, the recovery is still a story. With Brandon, it's not, and it takes a conscious effort to not treat him as a Blazer Returning From An Injury. He's not - he's just Brandon Roy, same as ever.

The rest of my analysis was more focused on how much downtime at home we had; in 30 days, we had 11 games and 4 travel hops (IF one doesn't include the flight to Chicago, which probably happens tomorrow) - that leaves FIFTEEN of the thirty days between December 12 and tomorrow as days off at home. So, I expected the team to go into semi-training camp mode, do a lot of practicing, get healthy, spend some off-court time gelling as teammates, and taking the lessons of the hectically paced first 1 1/2 months and pressing reset, approaching the "January 12 game in Chicago to start that four-game eastern swing" as "a sort of Game 1 for that 46-game sub-season." As far as that goes, I can't really look back at the past month's events and judge how well that's been accomplished; only the performance from here (all season long, not unduly applied to the next few games or anything), and ESPECIALLY our state at season's end going into the playoffs, will tell how wisely we spent this past month as prep for 46 games-plus-playoffs.

Lastly, the whole idiotic Darius thing doesn't enter the picture when I look back at how this past chunk went. Not an aspect AT ALL.

------------

On to the next chunk (and here's where the shift to shorter chunks, with less to analyze and less development to expect, ensues for the rest of the season):

EASTERN ROAD TRIP
Jan. 12 - @Bulls
14 - @Philly
15 - @NJ
17 @CHA

First of all, these are NOT GOOD TEAMS - New Jersey was apparently a Good Team earlier this season, and Devin Harris is still a flat-out stud, but the impression lately has been that they're not actually "good", they're just surprisingly not actually "bad", or maybe just not AS bad as we thought they'd be. With the current state of the Western Conference, we're not used to the concept of neither-good-nor-bad; we're used to one KILLING team, 8 good teams, and six bad teams, no middle ground. New Jersey is in that middle ground - and the other three teams are BAD.

1) Can we win on the road? We're right back to where we were at the beginning of the second chunk, when I asked in advance, "Did we learn to win on the road?" Well, back then, when we had 7 out of 8 games on the road, we went 4-3 after having gone 0-3 to start the season.  Similarly, at this point we haven't won a road game in over a month, since the December 7 win in Toronto. Of course, we've only PLAYED 3 road games in that stretch, losing them all, but to teams we would be expected to lose to, at least in THEIR cribs (Utah, Denver, and the L[xxx]rs), just like our opening 0-3 road stretch was at the L[xxx]rs, Phoenix, and Utah. And just like then, our ability to (re)learn how to win on the road in the coming stretch presents us with less imposing competition. And speaking of which . . .

2) Can we beat the teams we're supposed to beat? The take-care-of-business look of last night is a good sign. Road issues aside, this road trip is just four sequels to that Pyrite State game. What we did last night, do it again, do it, do it, do it 'til you're satisfied.

As I said, from here, these chunk review/preview posts need to be less analysis and more like an account statement. So, here are some numbers that will be in every chunk review/preview from here on in:

Record at the start of this next chunk: 22-14

Western Conference 2-through-9 standings, in "Team names ( games out of second )" format (I expect this 8-teams/7-playoff-spots situation to last all season long, unless the L[xxx]rs come back to the pack, in which case it just changes to showing 1-through-9 standings):

Spoors, Nougats ( - )
New Orleans ( 1/2 )
Houston ( 1 1/2 )
Portland, Phoenix ( 2 )
Utah, Dallas ( 2 1/2 )

In all chunk review posts to follow, I'll post these data sets from before AND after the just-ended chunk, and compare the change (heck, given the small chunks, I may not do much more than that). Also, I'll throw in a third piece of data:

Combined record of opponents in the upcoming chunk: 65-84 (.436)

See you all with the next Sked Update in a week, on the 18th.

7 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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thanks and rec!

The end is in the beginning and yet I go on....
-Beckett

by eyeotiger on Jan 11, 2009 8:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Last year I would have said 2-2 would be just fine

This year I expect 3 wins on this trip. 4-0 would be a bonus, but make no mistake: 2-2 would be a definite disappointment.

I enjoy your posts, QP.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 11, 2009 8:58 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hmmmm . . . maybe I should be throwing in a record expectation with these smaller stretches.

I say 4-0.
For what it’s worth, there’s only one back-to-back, and that’s for a short, Philly-to-Jersey hop.
We get TRAVEL DAYS this time, unlike the road madnesses of November and early December.
That prep opportunity will help us avoid the otherwise expectable one-in-four upset.

Do it! Do it! Do it 'til you're satisfied!

by QualityPie on Jan 11, 2009 9:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and give us a poll!

is this a democracy or what!?

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jan 11, 2009 9:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah they are taking off outta NJ right after the game so they will have a whole down day (Friday) in Charlotte

And the NJ and Philly arenas are only a 90 minute drive apart…wonder if they’ll bother getting back on the plane…

"..[Travis Outlaw] could jump, grab a rafter, eat a sandwich, and then dunk.."
tmundal 12/30/07

by LetsBlaze on Jan 12, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, good point!

I bet they stay at the same hotel, and bus to both games from that one home base.

[ wonders if any pro athletic team would ever start up an in-arena visitors mini-hotel ]

Nnnnnaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh . . .

Do it! Do it! Do it 'til you're satisfied!

by QualityPie on Jan 12, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

they stay at some nice hotel

"..[Travis Outlaw] could jump, grab a rafter, eat a sandwich, and then dunk.."
tmundal 12/30/07

by LetsBlaze on Jan 12, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They have to

The CBA states that teams must use first class accommodation (with extra-long beds), and also fly first class (at least for most players).

http://www.nbpa.com/cba_articles/article-XVIII.php

by Norsktroll on Jan 13, 2009 1:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll say 3-1

New Jersey seems like the team that can beat us. 2nd of a back to back and we can’t keep up with Devin Harris. Vince Carter also seems to be playing out of his mind lately. Harris gets to the line like crazy which probably means Oden will likely be in foul trouble. Plus, out of those 4 teams New Jersey is definitely the best.

I think we match up well against all the rest of those teams. I’d rather go 4-0 though.

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jan 11, 2009 9:35 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Tough to win on the road

Bulls, Philly, and NJ are not the OKCs of the league. None of these are easy games. NJ is a back to back, that makes it harder. They are basically playing .500 ball, they have been for the past month. They are on a back to back that night, too, which helps. If I remember correctly, they play in Boston the night before.

Philly, NJ, and Charlotte are 5-5 out of their last ten. Chicago is 12-6 at home, and will remember what happened in Portland, and won’t welcome us fondly.

Any one of these games could go in the loss column, even if we play well. We should be able to win them all, but things happen on the road. I’d be plenty happy with 3-1. I’m with Snake, 2-2 would be a disappointment, but it could happen, and wouldn’t be the end of the world. 4-0 would be great.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 11, 2009 9:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

though OKC did just win in Chicago
Bulls, Philly, and NJ are not the OKCs of the league.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 11, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that stuff happens

But Chicago is still 12-6 at home. Tonight is definitely winnable, in fact a “should win”, but not necessarily easy.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 12, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree.

None of these games are gimmes.

We absolutely trounced Chicago in Portland—embarrassed them even. They could be looking for some payback. Philly and Charlotte both strike me as the type of hustle teams (or at least teams with hustle players) that give us problems, and both have picked up their play lately. And then NJ throws at us the absolute worst player for us match-up wise in the whole league—a lightning-quick guard who can score from anywhere. Looks like Harris has some hammy issues right now, so we better be praying he doesn’t play, because if he does there is nobody on our team who can stop him.

jscot, are you and I the same person? We seem to agree often.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jan 11, 2009 10:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I should add ...

I would actually be pleased if we came out of this trip with a 2-2 record. I think we need 10-12 wins out of our final 23 road games, which is about .500 ball, to get to 50 wins. .500 ball on the road when we need .500 ball on the road is just fine with me.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jan 11, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

in order to acheive .500 ball on the road...

… we can’t afford to go .500 against mediocre teams like the four we face on this trip. We have plenty of road games left against the good teams, so we need to win the majority of these types of games.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 11, 2009 10:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That would be nice.

But it wouldn’t kill us to go 2-2 here. We have 15 or so winnable road games left, and 8 not-so-winnable games. We probably won’t win all the winnable games, and we probably won’t lose all the not-so-winnable games. 2 wins here and we’re probably okay.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jan 12, 2009 1:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I still think that's a "last season" mentality.

I expect more from this team. I believe we should win well over half our road games against sub-.500 teams. 2-2 certainly wouldn’t be a disaster, but I would not consider it a successful trip.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jan 12, 2009 1:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

these are the sort of games that need to be won

if we fancy ourselves a good team. Elite teams take all 4 games (90% of the time), a good team should take 3 of 4.

If we are favorites to win each game, clearly the better team, a neutral bettor puts money on the Blazers, etc. etc. why is anyone okay with going 2-2? I would like a 7 game win streak going into the Cavs game thankyouverymuch.

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Jan 12, 2009 2:55 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The 9 Western contenders

combined are 57-21 on the road against losing teams, a little over 70%. Leaving out Utah, Dallas, and Houston, who haven’t played like elites (though Utah wasn’t much better on the road last year), they are 39-7 against losing teams (and that includes against worse teams than we’ll face on this trip).

Elite teams would find nothing surprising about going 3-1 on a trip like this, and would sometimes even go 2-2. These aren’t pushovers.

But my recommendation to the Blazers is that they win in Chicago, and then in Philly, and then in NJ. That would make finishing with a winning record on the trip quite easy.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 12, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would LOVE a 7-game win streak going into the Cavs game.

LOVE. Not like. But I think we’re okay if we don’t have that. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Jan 12, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You're both right

It won’t kill us to go 2-2, and if that’s all that happens we’re probably ok. We would probably survive 1-3. But if we want to press on for a good seed and not end up having to fight for a playoff spot in the last week or two, we really need to maintain a good road record against poor and mediocre teams.

Our success this year is built on two pillars — win most of the home games against winning teams (8-3) and win almost all of our games against losing teams (6-1 home, 5-1 away). That’s right, we’re 5-1 on the road in the kind of games we are playing this week, and we’re not very far ahead of Utah and Dallas. We don’t want to let that level of play slip, or we lose the advantage that our solid play against tough teams has gained us.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 12, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Scary for you
jscot, are you and I the same person? We seem to agree often.

I know you can put admiration in bags, because admiration is real, and tominhawaii says that everything that is real is measurable.

by jscot on Jan 12, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

4-0

with at least one game winner from #25

ring it up

by northwestj on Jan 14, 2009 8:04 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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