Like others I see this year as a maybe/probably playoff year with lots of improvement but a lot of growing pains assimilating new, key players who haven’t played in the NBA before. Hopefully we make the playoffs barring injuries to key players. Big upside is we win the NW division (I think this is do-able).

2009 offseason: decisions about Blake, T-law, etc re: picking up last year of contracts and whether to sign any free agents. Nate’s contract gets extended.

2009-2010, the key players really start to gel and we make a deep playoff run. Optimistically they take the title, but I think they probably aren’t there yet by then.

2010 offseason: KP may hold cap space for this year and in doign so may be a relatively big name on the team, although they may not need it. Lots of other big names move around.

2010-2011: Team is powerful and other top teams are still working out kinks with new superstar players moving teams. BRoy and LA are in their 5th years and the team takes the title.

But I will go with 2009-10. My reasons:

Internal

1. Portland will have had a year of the present team growing together, with most likely no major moves coming (the talent is there, and chemistry trumps messing with that). They will gorw into the roles more fully year after next.

2. Portland teams don’t slow burn to the top. Every contending team we’ve had came out of nowhere (excepting the 99-00 team, but that was due more to the nature of how that team was assembled). 76-77, first playoffs, first title. 89-90, would have been the same explosion of RIP CITY and surprise as the 76-77 team, had they won it. We talk about the 99-00 team, but what about the 98-99 team? Who saw them coming? This point is a stretch to extrapolate, but I have a feeling they will win earlier than expected. we always have had that surprise vibe, and we seem to have shed that choke vibe as of late (the closeouts this year were noteworthy given our recent history).

3. System. Each successful era had players buying into a system they knew (again, 99-00 was a different beast from what I remember. System was our biggest disparity against the Lakers), and Nate has been here long enough to have a feel for the players and they a feel for his system.

External

1. Age. Off the top of my head, I think we will be seeing a less evenly balanced field in the next couple of years, with more top teams declining than there are up-and-coming teams taking their place. That is not to say competition will be weak, but the also rans will be of diminishing quality (we already started seeing that happen this year). Kobe, Duncan, Garnett will be great still, but older.

2. Windows. LA, New Orleans and Houston (and maybe Boston/Detroit) look to have good windows right now (assuming Houston can stay healthy, a big assumption. Same for Boston). A lot of other teams need to do more than just bench tooling to be in that same category in 09-10. In two years the landscape could (and will) look different, but we have the best starting point right now, and are set up better than any other team right now, meaning putting it all together (mentioned above) is the last step, and coming up soon.

3. Free Agency. We all talk about how getting one player can turn a franchise around, but no one talks about the time frame. As good as stars are, they have an adjustment period as well. The quick results are usually the players who come in and match perfectly a system already in place (Buck for us, Rodman for Chicago, Clyde for Houston). Lightning in a bottle like Boston is not bankable, and the players in that class don’t strike me as the type to be a Buck or Clyde or Rodman; i.e., will need time to adjust/can be exposed by better teams.

One year for the team to play with Oden, Rudy and Bayless

One year for them to make a deep playoff run

One year to hedge my bet

In 2011-2012 they’ll all be at the beginning of the prime of their careers

My initial thought was 2010-11, but I’m going to change it now.

08-09 – year of decisions, probably return to playoffs, the journey begins

09-10 – post RLEC/Salary Cap aquisitions, Oden/Rudy start year two. finish in top 4 in West. Adjustments made with other departures/acquisitions. come up short in WC Semis

10-11 – we are rolling now. win NW division, top 2 seed in West. one of the favorites to win it all. however, we come up short either in the WCF or Finals

11-12 – we come back from the disappointning end to the ’11 season, and roll through the league, finishing with the best overall record, which lead to a Game 6 home victory over LeBron and the New Jersey Nets.

I think experience has become overrated in recnet years, largely due to the success of the SAS, Pistons, etc. If we make the playoffs this year (which is highly likely IMHO), I think we have as good a chance as anybody to win the championship. More so because we have a deep team on paper. I don’t think it will take as long as people think for our team to gel, and I think that should happen within the 82 game season. If we can get our rotation set by the 65 game mark or so, and are in a position to get into the playoffs, I think we can wear out every team we face. Consider that our only weakness is our youth, and lack of proven stars. Let me put it this way. If Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez have seasons good enough to be considered for ROY, there’s no reason that we won’t have enough talent to beat anybody in the NBA next season. No team has as much potential depth as we do, and that is an absolute fact.

This year we make it to the WCF and get beat, either by the L*kers or Rockets (if Yao is healthy). The “surprise factor” was brought up earlier, and I believe its a valid one. However I dont think it will be enough to take us all the way this year. Its a wonderful pipe dream and all, but the reality is there are some really good teams on the horizon and not just the Blazers.

However, the Blazers certainly have the components to become the greatest out there. The team we have right now is already shaping up into something to be proud of. The chemistry and work ethic alone are something to behold. We have a team that is deep enough in the bench where we could just out hussle other teams. By the time most starting players get to the playoffs, they have played the equivelent of 70-82 games by themselves with bench players filling in the remaining time. With our bench, our starters will be lucky to see more then 60 total played games. Thats a huge advantage. And for an already young team to have that. Wow. Those will be some exciting fast paced playoff games. Why do you think analysists look at benches during the playoffs so much? Its because the players who carry a team the furthest into the playoffs usually are the bench players. Those wonderful “X factor” players. We already have a load of them.

As for the gel period, I have this sneaky suspision that the team is already there if not pretty dang close. We have a team of selfless players who want to go out there and play team ball. Granted we still have some spots to figure out (like PG and SF) but it will happen this year, and it will happen faster then people think.

Its a great time to be a Blazer fan for sure.

I’d give them one year to gel, a second year to fine tune and go fairly deep into the playoffs, and then expect a deep run and a possible championship in the third year. This assumes that Oden stays healthy.

Next year will involve so many things, and it will be a continuing learning curve for the entire team, and especially the coach. Oden changes how every position on the Blazers is played – just as Walton did his first year. Aldridge and Frye will now focus solely on the PF position. The days of needing two bodies and two games to play two different positions are over. TO will equally be able to now focus on his true position in the NBA – SF. There’ll be better interior rebounding, more blocked shots, and better outlet passes, and the wings will need to get into that flow. And, at guard, we have two different dynamics. We have a new playbook because of Oden, and we have two new guards – both of which will be learning the NBA, Mac’s playbook, and working on improving those areas of their game needed for the team as defined by the playbook. And, as their games improve, indeed as everyone’s games improve, the playbook will continually change. Mac and his coaches will be gelling multiple dynamics – and probably getting their fair share of sleepless nights. There’s a reason Mac commented that he stayed awake all night after watching Rudy play thinking about where and how to use him. He’s probably done the same thing with Oden, and perhaps even Bayless.

All along, Mac and KP will be carefully evaluating these players, as next spring and summer they can still make another move – if they think it’s necessary.

Personally, I don’t speculate on trades right now. One thing I really like about the players we have is that everyone seems to be working very hard to be the best they can be. Further, they seem to be willing to sacrifice personal statistics for team success. Dave’s comments on teamwork were so relevant yesterday. Spain, who very likely didn’t have a single player that would’ve made the US team, was still very competitive. We don’t need superstars at all the positions – anymore than the 77-78 Blazers did. And next year we’ll learn if the players we have, working within the system we can now put in place, can do the job we need done to win a string of championships.

Like so many have already said – it’s a great time to be a Blazer fan. This isn’t, after all, Boston, or Miami of a few years ago, where one year you’re lousy, the next you’re a champion, and the third you have to confront the fact that the only reason you won the championship is you grabbed a couple of superstars towards the end of their careers whose skills will never improve – but only decline. The Blazers have it all in front of them.

I am going to say this year as it will allow us a year to play with our new big free agent acquisition and solidify the rest of the lineup in terms of rotation. It would be great to say this year, but the team will not be gelled enough to do it, I do think they will make it to the second round in the playoffs. In 09-10 we will make the big shake-up and get our missing piece. This year we may actually make it to the Western Conf Championship or even the finals, but I think we won’t quite be ready in terms of how solid our rotations need to be (then again an entire season of playing together will get us close. The 2010-11, the big year. We take it to Lebron and the Knicks and go all the way.

Portland is going to add that final piece this season to the puzzle, we all know Raefs contract is going to land us a premium Player(Battier) Portland will need to go through a playoff run even if its a first round and out. This season has to be viewed as an audition from every player on the team, once the week links are completely identified Portland has what it needs to correct any and all its personel moves for the future.

  I hate to sound kinda negative but the landscape is going to change in our top 8 by next summer some of the fan favorites and devloping players are going to be gone. Roy,and LA will be going into there 4th seasons and will be nba journeymen, Oden will be turning 40 and his window may be on the decline,(ooops) Rudy has more experiance at the pro game then anyone on the Blazers except Joel. I would almost bet that we only have 6 players that are regulers on the floor with this club come training camp in 09 We will have youth dont get me wrong but the Sergios’s and the Outlaws of this team days are numbered(feel free to insert Martells name here) .

Portland gets to the second rnd. this season, and wins the championship in dominating fashion in 09-10.