I will do the Eastern Conference preview  first by division, and then do the Western Conference, culiminating with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview.  I will also do playoff predictions and strategies on why teams will win or lose. 

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Indiana Pacers

Prediction: 18-64 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

I look at the talent on this roster and it doesn’t look so bad.  I look at the depth of this team, and there isn’t huge drop off from the starters to the 3rd string.  Then I look at the positional talent of this team, and it looks like 64 losses.

First off, they have four capable point guards.  TJ Ford will start, with Jack coming off the bench, Travis Diener behind him and Jamaal Tinsley, who is essentially a lame duck.  Jack can play the two, but not fulltime, TJ Ford will probably suffer another injury and Jamaal Tinsley will be traded, so the depth there is only a perception.  Ford is a great up tempo PG and Jack can play the same way, so it looks as if this team is transitioning to a running team.  The most talented position is at small forward, where there are another 4 good to average players.  The Pacers’ best player, Danny Granger, averaged about 20 ppg last season and was the second option behind Dunleavy who had a breakout season, finally.  Rookie Brandon Rush also plays the 3 but will play SG this year, and Marquis Daniels is also a SF who has shown flashes of an NBA starter, but he lacks consistency.

Upfront the pacers have considerable depth at Center with Jeff Foster the starter with Rasho Nesterovic and Roy Hibbert the back ups.  Jeff Foster is solid, but would be better suited coming off the bench as an energy player, and Roy Hibbert probably isn’t ready for the speed of the NBA and will get limited minutes.  Nesterovic has always intrigued me.  He isn’t aggressive and seems to play passive, but when he gets minutes, he gets results.  In the last two months of the season for Toronto, Nesterovic was in the starting lineup and averaged about 15 ppg and 6.5 rpg.  Those are pretty good numbers alongside Chris Bosh. Most teams would love those numbers from their starting center.  So, to see him start, wouldn’t be much of a surprise.

The Pacers will be the worst team in the east, but I also think the will be one to play to the competition. They will be in a lot of close games, but won’t get the W.

Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction: 26-56 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

This is another team with a load of point guards; Luke Ridnour, Ramon Sessions, Tyronn Lue and Damon Jones.  Jones will most likely be a perimeter threat only and see limited minutes, especially at the point.  Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions will battle for the starting job.  Sessions will win it and Ridnour will come off the bench until he loses his job to Tyronn Lue.  Ridnour plays without the confidence he did while at Oregon, and I don’t see it coming back unless he gets off to a fast start.  He won’t have many scoring options as he is the fifth option as a starter. Sessions on the other hand is a pass first point guard with size and the ability to defend.  He had a coming out party at the end of last season when he became the starter.  While the competition wasn’t the best, he put up gaudy assist numbers and even threw in some scoring when needed.  If he averages half of the 14 apg he put up in the last couple weeks, then the bucks will have found the point guard of the future.

Michael Redd has become an elite scorer in the NBA, and has surpassed Ray Allen as the best pure shooter.  Redd can also play defense if it is needed, and he will have to with Villanueva and Bogut behind him.  Jefferson will be the second option again, but I figure he much rather play with Redd than Carter, because Redd cares more about winning.  Redd and Jefferson will both get a lot of minutes because, if summer league is any indication, Joe Alexander is not ready for the show, especially at the 3.  He is the perfect example of a ‘tweener, can’t dribble at the 3 and not big enough for the 4.  Charlie Bell is alright and can spell for 10-15 minutes a game, but Adrian Griffin is losing the one thing he had, his defense, so the help there is minimal.

Bogut and Villanueva are decent options up top.  Bogut, even though he never quite reached expectations as a number 1 overall pick, is still a good player and gets his numbers up every year.   Villanueva could be a great scorer.  He can shoot outside, can dribble and has good athleticism.  I expect him to finally hold onto the starting role and contribute as the third option ahead of Bogut.  Elson and Gadzuric can provide the defense off the bench in the middle.

It seems positive, but teams without much depth or more than one superstar (I wouldn’t classify either Jefferson or Redd as superstars) rarely have all the pieces fell into place. Things will not go perfectly.  The Nets were this team late last year (no player headaches for the Bucks though) and they didn’t even make the playoffs in the east.

Chicago Bulls

Prediction: 35-47 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Derrick Rose is not a number 1 draft pick in most drafts.  I think he will be very good, and he was the right pick for the Bulls, though.  Hinrich will start at PG and regain his form from two seasons ago if Ben Gordon is NOT resigned.  Gordon is a cancer.  He can score, but he isn’t a PG or a SG.  ‘Tweeners like Gordon work in some systems, but the Bulls don’t have the interior defensive presence to make up for Gordon’s lack of size, or defensive ability.  Hinrich is a solid 6’3" and matches up well with most shooting guards because he is willing to play defense.  He will get to do that a lot this year because I can’t see Hinrich splitting time with Rose.  Instead they will play on the floor together, while Larry Hughes sits and has time to think about his glory days on the Wizards. Thabo Sefolosha will continue to be productive in limited minutes and will eventually make Hughes expendable if he isn’t already.

Rose has a little bit of Dwayne Wade in him as he throws himself at top speed down the court, but he isn’t as big.  Rose will be more of a project than people think.  He isn’t really that great of a passer.  Watching him, most of his assists are a credit to the scorer, and not that man who set him up.  This isn’t to say he doesn’t distribute well, but he isn’t a Chris Paul or Jason Kidd type passer.  He will average around 9ppg and 5apg this year with Hinrich, but Hinrich will be gone and the team will be Rose’s in the future.

Small forward is the deepest position on the squad.  Luol Deng is a borderline star and the hardest worker on the team is Andres Nocioni.  Tyrus Thomas can play the 3 a little bit, but his poor dribbling and midrange shooting will keep him at the 4 for now.  Rounding out the position is Demetris Nichols, who has yet to prove anything.

The Bulls have a lot of trouble in the front court.  Their best front court player is a small forward, Andres Nocioni.  He will play a lot of minutes at the 4 despite what the depth charts say.   Gooden is solid, but Joakim Noah at the 5?  He isn’t strong, he isn’t smart, he can’t score…but he hustles.  Hustling only gets you so far.  Ask Jacob Richards.  Never heard of him? Neither have I. Aaron Gray will get some starts because of his size.

The Bulls only chance is for small ball to work.  They are fast and athletic and can’t shoot threes (except for Hinrich and Nocioni).  They don’t seem to really have a choice.  Gordon is going to be the biggest issue, he will clear the way for hard workers and allow the Bulls to overachieve. We’ll see what head coach Vinny Del Negro can get from them.  I am betting more than he should.

Cleveland Cavaliers 

Prediction: 49-33 3rd Seed Playoffs

Depth Chart

The Cavs are lucky that they’ve signed Maurice Williams.  Their backcourt was easily awful, now it is just bad.  Mo’ Williams is definitely an improvement over Delonte West.  This is true.  He is a good scorer, and makes enough good passes that he can still be classified as a point guard, and because he is a good ball handler, he will help LeBron James with dribbling duties.  His biggest duty though, will be hitting the big shot when James doesn’t have an opportunity.  Williams is not afraid to take those shots as proven by Michael Redd deterring to him at the end of games while in Milwaukee. Sasha Pavolic and Daniel Gibson aren’t much more than shooters, and Tarence Kinsey is just alright.  Wally Szczerbiak will spend some time at the 2, but will mostly play small forward.  He needs to get more time on the floor with LeBron because he can really spread the floor, and he is a competitor just like James.

The front line is improved through the draft.  JJ Hickson will be great for LeBron because he has great hands and is an opportunistic scorer. The Cavs may sign unheralded Darnell Jackson from Kansas, who could provide depth.  Ben Wallace has one year left of starting, if that.  Big Zydrunas Ilgauskas keeps plugging away.  He is slow, but solid, and can still be a shoot over most centers at 7’3" and long arms. Ben Wallace will do most of the backing up at center while Anderson Varejao will meet the alley-op requirements of LeBron off of the bench.

LeBron James is in a class of his own.  He is the most athletic player in the league, easy.  For a 6’8" 240lbs guy to be the fastest, strongest, best ball handler and a high flyer on the floor, is just "redonkulous." There is no single player in the league that can guard him one on one.  The only person that can begin to match-up is Tracy McGrady in those rare moments when he is healthy.  And therein lies the problem.  Teams can easily play a defense scheme that centers on James and it is the other players on the team that must step-up.  This hasn’t happened in the playoffs (Note: for some reason, Detriot, who has been one of the best defensive teams in the league, hasn’t figured this out).   LeBron James alone can take this team to the playoffs, but every game he is hurt, or doesn’t play to his averages, the Cavaliers will struggle.  And once in the postseason, who will be the player that steps up when James is double-teamed?  Cleveland is hoping it is Mo’ Williams.

Detroit Pistons

Prediction 50-32 2nd Seed Playoffs

Depth Chart

The "Old Guard."  The Pistons have been good enough to tease everyone about winning another Championship since 2004. Change out Ben Wallace with Antonio McDyess and these are the same starters from their last championship.  But the 2004 team was much better.  They had Ben Wallace when he was a stud.  Mehmet Okur came off the bench, so did Corliss Williamson.  That is a lot better than the current team.  Rodney Stuckey can play, and will be a starter at some point, but the rest of the bench are straight roll players and will never be anything more.  Kwame Brown is terrible.  Amir Johnson hasn’t developed, even though he still has a couple more years to prove something.  Maxiell is a beast, but a 6’6" power forward has to be.  The fact is, three of the four starters are showing their age.  Chauncey Billups is still durable, but played four less minutes in 07-08 than the previous year.  His production was still fine, but in the playoffs he only averaged 32 minutes.  An all-star needs to be playing 36-40 mins. in the postseason.  He was also injured for a few games.  Luckily, Stuckey didn’t miss a beat and reenergized the Starters who had gotten used to the grind it out pace.  It is hard to get easy buckets this playing that way, especially against good teams in the playoffs, and Stuckey proved that pushing the ball and can get those easy buckets.

Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are both over the hill.  The fact is; Wallace isn’t assertive, and it hurts the Pistons in the playoffs.  He is so loose in the regular season he can’t just hit a switch and turn it on in the postseason anymore.  McDyess has had a good post injury career, and could probably score more if more plays were called for him. He is just solid at the 4, but he is playing the 5 and he struggles a little bit.

Rip Hamilton is surprisingly not young.  He will be 31 in February.  With the way he plays, running around screens all night, it will be hard to translate once his body goes (although Reggie Miller was able to keep his playing style alive until his last year).  Tayshaun Prince is their most tradable piece because he can score pretty well and is one of the best all around defenders in the league.  His arms are so long, and he, at 6’9" is very agile and can guard most PGs for stretches of the game.

I think Detroit will have another successful season, but will hit injuries.  They will be the second best Eastern Conference team during the regular season, but in the post season they will struggle to get past the first round.  The energy is not there.