Blazersedge 2008-09 NBA Season Preview: Hawks and Wizards--Don't Freak Out

Not trying to take anything from Dave’s unique perspective and writing style away, but it’s a fairly new site with very few commenters yet and the guy writing it is really doing a good job (formerly had a blog called "Hoopinion") that even complete non-Hawks fans like probably most of us might appreciate. Unfortunately, he is covering the NBA franchise with arguably the worst ownership group (hence the loss of Childress and Smith trying at least a little bit to get away). Well, some would say that’s Bennett’s group, but still… Here is a nice overview of interesting articles:
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2008/9/25/621638/a-peachtree-hoops-primer

Oh, and for the Wizards that would be BulletsForever.

When I saw you were reviewing the Wizards that is the first thing I thought of. The problem is, Gilbert went out of his way to say that he’d only sign if Jamison got signed. Their games are so contradictory to each other, its hard to see this team ever being successful with that combo. They looked good last year without Gilbert in the lineup, slowing the game down, but could never get it all together when he came back. Conversely, they were successful two years ago when they were playing that up-tempo game, but Jamison was a detriment to that style, both offensively and defensively. Caron Butler seems to be able to play in both systems, but he actually looked slightly better last year, without Gilbert. It may be hard to trade your team and cities biggest star, but I think if they could get a couple quality players, perhaps younger players, that would help this team improve in the most important category of all… wins.

The last year(s) he made more news with his poetry and public speaking than with his basketball skills, due to open heart surgery. On average he has missed 30 games each season so far in his career. He is a great human being, but from an impact perspective at this point he was longer out of the game than Greg and anything he could contribute for the Wizards this season would be a bonus (you could count that as a “significant addition”).

Apart from that little observation, I really liked the mountain climber imagery to describe their situation of seemingly not being able to move up and climb over Mt. LeBron in the last few years.

Before even reading anything else besides the title, I sat there pondering how the hell could the Hawks and Wizards do something to us that would make me freak out.

Now back to reading.

josh smith is awesome.

It’s ridiculous that the Hawks made the playoffs with a 37-45 record. I mean, I’m glad that our beloved team faces the continual challenge/compitition that is the Western Conference, but really…sub .500…playoffs?

But the idea that Antawn and Gilbert don’t compliment each other well makes no sense. Most of Antawn’s buckets come quickly and not when he is pounding the ball into the floor. Last year, 74 percent of his jumpers and 54 percent of his layups were assisted. The year before, with Arenas playing, those numbers were 83% and 53%, respectively. Doesn’t sound like somebody who needs the ball in his hands all the time to be effective.

Moreover, all of Jamison’s shooting percentages were down last year from 06/07, when Arenas was playing.

Atlanta are a good team. A team on the rise. Not one to be taken lightly anymore, as we saw them against the Celtics last year. Everybody thought sweep and the Hawks sent it 7. Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Al Horford, Mike Bibby. A good core. Interesting to see how they turn out this season. I think losing Childress is a bad loss for them though. Still I think their good core can do great things this year. Washington is a team I’m not so sure on. Gilbert Arenas is the man there, but aside from that I’m not sure on them. Butler is a good defensive player, Jamison can score. But if Washington goes anywhere in the standings and postseason Gilbert’s health is definetly a big factor.

Gilbert Arenas’ absense is responsible for Antawn Jamison’s increased desire for rebounding?

I didn’t say that. What I said, was that the decreased pace of play the Wizards ran with when Gil was gone, allowed a slow footed Antawn Jamison to be in position to get rebounds a much higher percentage of the time.

Gilbert Arenas is responsible for Antawn Jamison’s commitment to defense?

The exact same thing. Running far less, Antawn found himself in the correct position a higher percentage of the time (his D still blows)

Your theory is that Arenas caused Jamison to be out of position, thereby leading to a lower percentage of rebounds. Here’s another theory: Brendan Haywood played more minutes and occupied more space, boxing out guys and allowing the quick-leaping Jamison to grab more missed shots.

That’d be great in theory, if it didn’t cause the exact opposite to happen. With Haywood in the game more, HE grabbed a lot of those rebounds himself, negating any supposed advantage that playing with Haywood would’ve had on his rebounding.

Another theory: with the Wizards forcing more missed shots, there were more rebounds to go around.

The different pace, and Gil’s poor defense more than account for that difference. Teams that play higher paced games naturally score more, but also give up more (almost always at higher efficiencies).

As far as Antawn shooting jumpers, your data is off. 73% of his shots were jumpers in 06/07. In 07/08, that mark dropped a whopping 3% to 70%. For every 100 shots, Jamison attempted 3 more inside than outside.

I guess you understand what I wrote. Same exact stats as you used. 30% of his shots came from inside last year as opposed to 27% the year before. That means he shot the ball 10% of the time more from inside than the previous year. And in actuality, since he got a much higher percentage of his teams shots, the difference is even greater than that.

So there’s little difference in the number of jumpers taken, yet Jamison’s eFG% rose from 40.5 in 07/08 without Arenas to 44.3% in 06/07. His "close" eFG, meanwhile, was 68.9 with Arenas and 65.4 without him.

This is obviously the case, as I’ve already acknowledged that the faster paced basketball leads to better shots. I’d expect the exact inverse relationship with the teams defense during these two years. The fact is the FG% differential was actually better last year without Arenas than it was the year before with him.

Basically, if you think Arenas doesn’t help Jamison, you’re assuming that:
a) they are the only two guys who can affect each other’s games
b) that Jamison can’t go out and devote himself to rebounding independent of Arenas’ presence
c) that an improved PER explains everything.

A: Obviously they’re not the the only people that effect each others game, but their games are so contradictory that it doesn’t allow for them both to excel on the same team. Why on earth did the team drastically change everything in terms of offensive and defensive philosophy just because one guy got injured? Its because Arenas’ game is so dependent on one kind of basketball, that everyone else on the team has to not play their games to allow him to “do his own thing”.

B: It has nothing to do with devoting himself to rebounding. So you really think he was just trying harder last year, and thats what accounted for the difference? Really? That is a pretty weak argument, and it was only made to back up your point, which the stats clearly don’t agree with.

C: Drastically increased PER and Roland Rating mean Jamison was playing in his ideal (or at least close to ideal) style of basketball team last year as opposed to the year before that. Its not my problem that all the stats indicate exactly what I’ve been saying.

I’ve been having this same argument with Wizards fans for the past 2 years, and until playoff time they insist their team is better than it is. I don’t understand why people from that area overrate their own team so much in comparison with everyone else. Its not a fit, and everyone from outside Washington agrees. Arenas and Jamison are a horrible fit together. They both require a lot of shots, they both play really poor defense, and they both play their best offense in different styles of basketball. They should’ve made moves to try and be a better fast break team, or a better defensive minded team. Instead they’re continually straddling the fence of what team they want to be, and getting the least amount of output from their significant talent.