Ups and Downs

getting good at this…

You always have to have a plan B and C. Our key players are Roy, Oden, and Aldridge.

1. Take out Aldridge…we survive, probably do nearly as well, with Channing and Diogu
2. Take out Roy…probably quite a few less wins, definitely rely more on role players and guys like Outlaw for 4th quarter stuff, but you throw Blake in there to run the offense and Bayless as a Roy-lite.
3. Take out Oden…it’s a repeat of last year with more experienced players, so the Blazers still have a chance of being a contender.

I think you could even take out two of the three (as long as one of them is Aldridge) and still be okay. Roy + Oden would be a tough pill to swallow though.

Guess it has something to do with them not having bird rights maybe, I don’t know. Anyway, I think the Wizards are better without Arenas. The guy is a chucker and a selfish player, they do just fine without him.

but we’ve had depth before yet lacked leadership. Sheed was our best player but not our leader. He didn’t want to be the focal point. I like our depth and we can be a good team without some guys, but we’re not hangin’ banners without LaBroden.

the Wizards do not come across as the wisest of franchises, and should probably just change their name to the “Wizzes” since thats what they do with their money. Arenas is an amazing talent when healthy, but it’s hard to believe that they wouldn’t do a living autopsy on the guy before signing him to $111 Million (13 Million less than they were willing to pay before Arenas told them to defer that amount to Antawn’s new contract).

Perhaps Washington’s contemporary basketball culture differs from that in Portland. Perhaps just having an exciting team with one of the most exciting and dramatic players is enough without the banners. It’s hard to imagine Arenas being the missing link to a championship team ala KG to Boston. Yet, I’m sure plenty of teams were willing to make legit offers to him had Washington not wet their pants…despite his injury history as well.

Thinking of the future, I’ll probably be large SPAM advocate in terms of max-contracts for our Big 3. IF we exceed expectations this year and next, there’s no reason not to think all 3 get maximillions, with Brandon and Greg holding the potential to get super-max deals like Arenas down the line. The striking similarity there is that both of those guys have had knee surgeries as well. If there’s debris in the knees of either at the time of contract negotiations, would we really hesitate to offer the same amount and risk offending our marquee guys? Probably not, but Dr. Roberts would again have the hopes and prayers of an entire city in his hands as he holds the scalpel.

The pros and cons of the Arenas deal are endlessly debatable (thank god for blogs), and I can see why the prospect of losing him for nothing in return would likely hurt their team and force them into starting over and wholesaling legit players like Jamison and Butler. Being that Arenas didn’t have an agent and seems born of some unique strange brew, Washington may have felt that anything less than the super-max would offend Arenas as he might take it as an indication that they don’t complete faith in his ability. The kicker for me though is the knee. I mean, just check that out before the signing, as it’s hard for me to believe that something detrimental happened in the mere weeks between his contract signing and subsequent surgery. Even if Arenas started this year, I would expect him to resemble last year’s Dwayne Wade. An effective but obviously less-than-100% star trying desperately to salvage an average season in hopes of maintaining health long enough to get his chops back and be the player he once was. So far so good for Dwade as he looked remarkable this summer, and I hope Arenas can make the same recovery. But if he does, I’ll be about as scared of the “Wizzes” as I am of the Heat—not at all.

“unfortunately circumstances” in the third sentence.

—Your Friendly Proof Reader

Gilbert Arenas: #31
Monta Ellis: #40
Andris Biedrins: #11 (they could have also went with busts like Swift, Podkolzin, Humphries, …)

To the topic: I think both teams will be fine at least in the mid-term future. Their best guards are hurt, but nothing indicates it’s anywhere close to career ending. Ellis will be 23 before the season starts and is way before his prime even if this season should head in the trash (lottery) for the Warriors. Arenas will be 27 when he comes back, only at the beginning of his prime. Washington was good last season with Antonio Daniels running the point, now they also added better backups. If their “big three” are healthy during the playoffs, they can beat all teams in the East (they likely won’t, but have the skills). Gilbert tends to do too much on his own too early in training (500 made shots before the practice even starts, what?), which is not conducive to a solid rehab. Thus he re-injured himself, albeit the latest arthroscopy was just to flush residue out of the knee (remember that all NBA surgeries are “successful” though?). I hope he takes enough rest this time, then he will be back to form around the All-Star game – not that he should play in it…

I don’t think it makes much sense comparing the games won by the Bullets and the Warriors. You don’t know what would happen if Arenas stayed in GS.
  I think that the telling fact was that Washington didn’t seem to miss him during the time he was injured last season.

The NFL has the right model. You can sign a big deal, but if you don’t produce, or get hurt or someone better comes along, thanks and don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.