So how many shots are there to go around?

by Gargen on Sep 2, 2008 7:56 PM PDT

There has been a lot of talk recently about who's getting how many shots next year. It's nice to say Player X should get more or Player Y should get less when looking at them individually, but how many shots are there to go around? Specifically, people are wondering if there is room for Trout to get a few extra shots this year. Lets first take a look at how many shots Portland took last season as well as some other teams for comparison:

Team - Total Shots Taken - Per Game

Portland - 6545 - 79.8

San Antonio - 6424 - 78.3

Phoenix - 6782 - 82.7

Denver - 7038 - 85.8

Boston - 6286 - 76.7

One interesting side note is that our number of shots per game is right about in the middle of the league despite our noteworthy slow "pace". I can only assume that the fact that most of our games were low turnover games, on both sides of the ball, led to a few extra shots per game despite the slow pace. That said, I don't think our pace will change a whole lot next year. It will probably be a bit faster with our extra offensive weapons and a few more defense triggered fast breaks, but not a ton. Here is the player specific info from last year. First lets look at how many "shots/82-games" we will definitely open up.

Outbound Players:

Jack - 7.6 shots/82-games

Jones - 4.0

Green/Wafer/McRoberts -0.6

Total - 12.2

So far we have 12.2 shots to distribute to our new players. Here are last year's players and their shots/82-games and some notes about expected changes in shots:

Roy - 14.3 - May get less shots as the offense doesn't have to run through him all the time. Rudy in particular seems to be in position to take shots that Roy would have got last year... we'll add an extra 1.5 shots/game to the bin

Aldridge - 14.2 - See Roy, but substitute Oden for Rudy, add 2.0 to the bin

Outlaw - 11.7 - err... we'll see if there's anything extra left for Trout at the end

Webster - 8.0 - Jones gone = win for Martell, Rudy and to a lesser extent Oden = loss for Martell, overall = push

Blake - 7.8 - If Bayless proves to have a more reliable overall game than Jack or Roy/Rudy start runnig the point more often, this could go down, add 2.0 to the bin

Frye - 5.5 - May lose some to Diogu, but maybe not... will be addressed below

Przybilla - 3.0 - I don't think Przy's minutes (23.6/game) will go down much with Oden on board, at least not until Oden has had a good year of "real 82 game season" conditioning under his belt. I expect similar shots/game because of that

Rodriguez - 2.4 - I think he's officially an odd man out this year, add 1.5 to the bin

LaFrentz - 0.7 - With Oden and Diogu added to the front court, he's the new Victory Dance player, add .5 to the bin

Total - 67.7

That leaves us with 19.7 shots to distribute among our new players, and those players are:

Oden - 8.0 - About the same number of shots that Martell got last year (i.e. enough to say we're letting him learn, but not enough to let his inexperience kill us)

Fernandez - 5.5 - about what Jones got if looking just at the games he played in

Bayless - 5.5 - See Fernandez

Diogu - If he gets any shots, they are probably mostly taken from Frye's total, but between the two it will still probably be an extra 1.5

Total - 20.5 - That's 0.8 more than the amount that had "freed up" above, but this where the "we'll probably have a bit faster pace next year" comes in to play. Unfortunately that doesn't leave anything left for Trout to pick up, but if things go as I predict, his 11.7 will be right in line with Roy and Aldridge.

So what do you all think? Who's getting more or less shots than I predicted? How about the team as a whole?

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Comments

nicely thought out post

I agree with most of it. I think we’ll pick up a few possessions via defense as you mention and also a few more from offensive rebounds (Oden). Minor changes from my perspective:

I think Webster’s shots go down a bit, Blake’s go down alot, Diogo gets none and Rudy picks up a few more. Trout averages the same ppg with less shots (gets to the line) if Nate is to be heard.

by JMoon on Sep 2, 2008 8:27 PM PDT reply actions

If TO takes more FTs that will decrease the amount or total shots

as it is a shot, but since there was a foul it does not register as a FGA. Although it would be good as we can put points on the board with little time coming off, minus the time it takes to get the foul.

The season cannot get here soon enough.

by SpyderRyder on Sep 6, 2008 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Greg needs more

sorry but Oden’s development alone chooses how far we go. Most games he’ll probably make 4 / 8 FG if you give him that much attempts.. and maybe less if he needs to get going.. He’d average about 8-9 pts, and be seen as a Bust pretty much.

Roy and Aldridge should get 15 shots each, and Oden about 11 shots. They’re our core, they need to lead us since they will always be with us, everyone else is just role player and better be happy with whatever they get based on game situation..

by dsx460 on Sep 2, 2008 8:28 PM PDT reply actions

Greg will get more

I was watching some of his college highlights on youtube, and noticing how many putbacks he had. My guess is he creates a bunch more shots for himself by grabbing offensive boards (that didn’t get grabbed at all last year).

by Kaboomm on Sep 5, 2008 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree with both of you

Coach Nate clearly prefers an inside out offense and Aldridge will continue to be a feature but Greg is the monster here against whom many opponents cannot match up. By featuring Greg the big men in the opposition will certainly play fewer minutes because of fouls against them trying to stop Greg. LaMarcus doesn’t draw as many fouls because of his style. So Greg will get the ball 15-25 times each game and will pass back out about a third of the time. That puts it in the range you predict. Coach is not concerned with the number of shots each player gets but wants higher percentage shots to predominate. Dunks are about the highest percentage. Do you think a third is too low?

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on Sep 6, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions

This is the entire question for this year and the future:

We all know he can anchor our D but can Greg anchor our O as well? Would that be too much to ask of him? There are some in the camp of making Greg our 1st option everytime he is in the game, running the O thorugh him and letting him dictate where the play is going by reading the 2x teams that are going to be thrown at him and making the appropriate pass, which he has shown to know how to do in the past.

I can see that approach working but think that a better use of his talents would be to use him with the team not as the focus of the team. If we spread the offense out and get the whole team involved, we can creae a much more dangerous team. Even if Greg only got 8 fga’s he would probably convert 6 of them, not 4, and then add in all the other FTs that he would get from grabbing O boards, and that will pepper in another 3-5ppg for a total of 15-17ppg for only 8fga/g. That is the beauty of Oden where he can get his points he does not need a lot of fga’s.

I think Roy will pare down his shots for the good of the team, let him distributte to our new guys and then in the 4thQ let him take over.

The season cannot get here soon enough.

by SpyderRyder on Sep 6, 2008 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I frankly see travis shot going down, unless he is given the starting spot. I don't think he'll be given the starting spot.

Most of Travis points, it seems to me, came from mismatches against bigger power forwards who couldn’t defend him. Thus he was able to isolate and get himself open. His mismatches against small forwards won’t be as great and he’ll get a couple less shots off. So, I see Travis taking about nine shots a game. Oden will need at least ten shots a game, more if he proves to be a great offensive player from the beginning.

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by Zaron5551 on Sep 2, 2008 8:48 PM PDT reply actions

Totally agreed.

by CaptainSexyJacob on Sep 2, 2008 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions

travis is too tall for SFs

they cant contest his shot. He elevates too much….that’s what great about travis. he is a matchup nightmare.PF’s are too slow to guard him on the perimeter, and SFs are to small to take him in the post….he’ll get 13 shots a game, as he is our second/third most potent scoring threat.

by BroyTheTruth on Sep 3, 2008 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions

we'll see, but i think a lot of the athletic SF can guard him

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by Zaron5551 on Sep 3, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions

nobody on the lakers, spurs, hornets, or jazz can....ie our playoff contenders

cracklinko is gonna be too busy trying to guard roy…..there’s only a handfull of guys in the league with his athleticism..

Teshaun…….fair enough
Lebron…………greatest in the game
Vince Carter…..Old
Rashard Lewis………never been noted as a stopper
Carmelo…..come on, when did he ever give a crap about defense
Kobe…..not quite tall enough
Tmac…..ok, but gettin old.

point is, there’s not a lot of guys who match up well with him.

by BroyTheTruth on Sep 3, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions

and like you said

the guys who do match up well with him are probably going to be guarding Roy, anyway.

The street lights is on.

by Magnum on Sep 3, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions

Small Forwards can guard him closer though

PFs will usually stand a little farther away in order to defend drives to the basket. Athletic small forward can almost make up the height difference with their vertical elevation, and stay closer to him because they are quicker. I guess there will be an adjustment period for Travis, and Nate has suggested he will need to adapt his game to be successful against SFs.

I would also include guys like Josh Howard, Danny Granger, maybe Rudy Gay as guys with the size and skills to effectively guard Travis.

Odenied: Asked whether he noticed Oden favoring his right knee, Frye dismissed it entirely. "He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors."

by Norsktroll on Sep 3, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

good call with the three guys you mentioned.........

howard, granger, and rudy gay…….
fortunately they all play for bad teams….dallas is goin nowhere with an old jason kidd at the helms….
granger is the guy i most want to see the blazers get.
and rudy gay is incredibly athletic…………….outlaw however is still taller, and can leap with the best of them……
besides rudy gay. Travis outleaps the other two, and ive never been 100 percent sold on rudy gays defense..

youre right though, granger is a g………….outlaw though still causes problems

by BroyTheTruth on Sep 3, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Unfortunately Granger is in the process of extending his contract

I would have loved to get him with our cap space. Now we will most likely have to trade for someone if the Blazers want to improve a position quickly, there are not that many attractive free agents left in 2009.

Oh, Ron Artest also might be trouble for Travis, and Houston matters.

Odenied: Asked whether he noticed Oden favoring his right knee, Frye dismissed it entirely. "He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors."

by Norsktroll on Sep 3, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Both Ron Artest and T-Mac could take TO defensively

Ron Ron absolutely shut down Roy this year. Never underestimate strength as a defensive advantage. T-Mac is tall enough and he’s certainly athletic enough that it’s not a humongous difference.

Plus, TheTruth is ignoring a few other key guys on contenders and some other teams:

Paul Pierce (pretty much took Kobe entirely out of the finals)
James Posey (would likely match up similarly and has done the same to both Kobe and Dirk in recent finals, and NO definitely matters)
Shawn Marion (plays for a bad team now, but out of a contract this year and still has a couple peak years left)
Shane Battier (another Houston guy)
Richard Jefferson (bad team, I know)
Stephen Jackson (one of the most underrated defenders in the league, shut down LMA when we played them last year in GS, also bad team, though)
Caron Butler (would probably guard Roy, though)
Josh Smith (dreaming if you think he isn’t at or above TO athletically)

I know not all of these guys are quite up to TO’s height or athleticism, but all of them are good enough defensively to check TO without any help, and a decent number of them are on contenders (especially Houston, which is kind of a matchup nightmare for us right now). And between all of them and the ones mentioned above, that covers roughly half the teams in the league. Until he gets a little more of a handle and “blow-by-ability” as they say, he’s not going to be able to put his athletic advantages over some of these guys to use.

by Royster on Sep 3, 2008 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry, I feel like I've been real negative about TO recently

I love the guy as a player, I just feel like he could be so much more than he’s shown us so far and I’m not sure where his shots are going to come from given how stacked our roster is. If he comes back showing the handle that he’s been supposedly working on over the summer, though, then he could truly be a force of nature on the court.

I admit I’m greedy, when a guy can throw it down like TO, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be trying to force action at the rim. No matter how much you work on your jumper, a dunk is always going to be a 99% shot compared to a 50% (at best) jumper. I appreciate all the hard work is done, but it’s also made me realize how much better he could be than he already is, and I want to see him reach that potential before I’m happy.

by Royster on Sep 3, 2008 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions

i feel what your sayin...

And i agree with you about wanting to get the best out of him..we’ll see, i think he exhibits potential on a Kobe Bryant level. It’s different. but still unstoppable..and it would be incredible if he ever reached that ceiling……its there for him though given his athletic prowess. along with his mastery of the jumper…its just now with that, he needs to use the rest of the weapons in his arsenal.namely, attacking the rim..
All those guys you mentioned are serious threats. Tmac, Artest, Paul Pierce, and Shawn Marion could probably all win out in a playoff series…though besides Paul Pierce and Tmac (who are on the downslope of their careers) i think the margin would be close. And could be outweighed by the Oden/Broy factor….and your right about houston being a bad matchup for us. hopefully they some one else can knock Tmac out of the first round so we dont have to see him….I like our chances against LA, Utah, the Spurs, New Orleans, and Dallas. Pheonix and Houston could give us fits……..
On a side note, I think Rudy could be one of the most interesting factors this year. Is Steve Blake really good enough to start in front of him….I feel putting Rudy out there with Roy would be like throwing a quick blow in a boxing match.

by BroyTheTruth on Sep 4, 2008 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions

Good discussion guys

Kirilenko is another who we do need to beat in the regular season and the playoffs. He certainly has the length and the hops to defend Travis.

And I agree that other options for us force the opposition to choose their poison.

by lee3022 on Sep 6, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Great post

I really value these posts that really get into the heart of the matter. Here in the number of shots, and earlier in the summer in minutes.

I really don’t see Outlaw’s shot attempts going up significantly. If they do, a lot will depend on his ability to add to the second unit’s defensive rebounding (outlaw, frye, Pryz, and high energy rudy could be dangerous)

However, I do think there might be a few more attempts to add to the pool, not because we’ll move a lot faster, but because we’ll be able to rebound more of our missed shots.

by Gelvalst on Sep 2, 2008 9:10 PM PDT reply actions

Math issue?

It didn’t seem like you were giving us a big boost in shots/game, so we have about 80 shots. The addition of the returning players minutes seems fine. But how do the new players have almost 20 shots to divide amongst themselves?
67.7+20= 87.7
Almost 8 shots more per game than last year. Tell me if I missed something.

I don’t think Sergio will get any shots this year. He’ll be under .5 per game. Same kinda deal for Raef and Digou. I, personally, wouldn’t bother factoring their shots into an overall team perspective because when those guys are in, we’re probably winning by a comfortable margin.

Webster and Blake will get most of their shots on kickouts from the Big 3. I doubt any offense is run for them. I’d say 4 shots/game for Blake and 6 for Webster. (10)

Oden needs to get the ball in his hands. Other teams need to fear his power and stand in awe as he dunks on them. I think 12 attempts per game is reasonable and will help him develop. 2-3 from offensive boards, a few on lobs, 4 or 5 from plays designed for him and the occasional interior pass. (22)

Roy. What else need be said? 15 a game is a good number. (37)

Aldridge seems to be in a weird position for me. I don’t know if he gets more shots now that Oden is around or if he gets fewer. I’ll just stick with the 14 he got from last year and wait to see what happens. (51)

Rudy, Rudy, Rudy, Rudy!!! He doesn’t need a lot of attempts to be dangerous, which is awesome. Give him 8 a game and watch him get 6th man of the year. Ok, ok, maybe I’m a little ahead of myself. Let’s just feature him in the dunk contest this year. Will Dwight be back? (59)

Bayless should do nothing but drive the lane and get to the rim. That won’t happen, but it’s a nice thought. I’m not sure how to predict his shot attempts because he’s the 3rd maybe even 4th option out in the 2nd unit. Give him 5. (64)

Outlaw, if he hasn’t improved, will get fewer attempts this year. He’s not our only 6th man candidate. Depending on the situation, we may want to sub Rudy or Bayless instead of him. He’s the first option on the 2nd unit, but Rudy could surpass him by the end of the season. I’ll say 10 a game. (74)

Frye should get more playing time and more shots, but what are ya gonna do? There’s just too much talent on this team and he’s backing up one of the big 3 and has a very similar playing style to Aldridge. 5/game. (79)

Pryz is another guy who gets shots when things are either going very well or very poorly. I’m not sure if I really want to give him a number per game, but the rest of the top 10 got a number. 1.5
80.5 total plus some scraps from the 11-15 guys

The street lights is on.

by Magnum on Sep 2, 2008 9:32 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

67.7

That number was before the 7.0 were taken out from my comments.

Overall though, I think I like your shot breakdown better than my own. :o

by Gargen on Sep 2, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions

gotchya

and thank you

The street lights is on.

by Magnum on Sep 3, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Offensive glass

should be where we pick up several more shots, Greg I would hope is good for 2-3 putbacks a game besides the set plays designed for him.

I tried at one point to figure out what I thought players scoring avg’s. were going to be this season and ended up with Portlands players avg. 126 points a game, thats not going to happen, so I revised my thinking on minutes distributed and still had a hard time going below 106 points a game.

Good subject here,,,,,,,

by Dragonage on Sep 3, 2008 6:45 AM PDT reply actions

hey bro

thats because when you add all the players minutes avg it will be more than 240 minutes. Lets say Roy avrages 35 minutes a game and 20 points, but when he gets injured in the middle of the season Rudy will play more minutes and score more points so rudy will avg 30 minutes a game and score 20 points a game. Now thtas because Roy played 41 games and Rudy played the other 41 so when you add their total minutes it looks like the shooting guard played 65 minutes per game and their total avg of points is 40. but you have to remember that they played in different times of the season thats why when you combine everything it comes out more than regular.

by RipCity on Sep 3, 2008 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions

excellent point

by BroyTheTruth on Sep 3, 2008 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll just text Nate and axe him how he's going to hook this up

Did I ever tell you you're my hero?

by tominhawaii on Sep 3, 2008 12:24 PM PDT reply actions

I was afraid to leave my house last night. I heard there was an ask murderer on the loose

"Why would we lie to ourselves dude?"
"Be excellent to each other."
"All we are is dust in the wind, dude."
"Strange things are afoot at the Circle K."

The Wisdom of Bill S Preston Esquire and Ted Theodore Logan

by GreatOden'sRaven on Sep 3, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Several English expressions have evolved since the present day. For example, the word Christmas has been replaced with Xmas (pronounced "EX-mas) and the word ask with aks (pronounced axe). According to David X. Cohen it is a running joke in the series that the French language is extinct in the Futurama universe, much like Latin is in the present.17 In the French dubbing of the show, German is used as the extinct language instead.

Link

Did I ever tell you you're my hero?

by tominhawaii on Sep 4, 2008 4:23 AM PDT up reply actions

Nice one!

"I like your Christ. I do not like your Christians. They are so unlike your Christ." -Gandhi
"Throw Thag, throw. Throw throw throw throw throw throw"- Far Side

by TheThinWhiteDuke on Sep 6, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions

I think a lot of it

has to do with Bayless. Will he shoot first and ask questions of who was open later. Or will he be a distributor like he said he is “most comfortable” with. I think he will be gone soon if he doesn’t pass to T-Law or Rudy. It’s a tough call.

My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.

by OCBlazerFan1 on Sep 3, 2008 7:01 PM PDT reply actions

Good Thoughts

Good thoughts. As the man says – it concentrates one’s mind wonderfully when you factor out the hype and factor in the minutes and the shots. The X-Factors are Bayless and Frye. Mac’s already stated that Rudy and Outlaw on the second team will get more shots – which leaves Bayless and Frye. However, anyone reading the interview today with Frye can clearly see a man on a mission. He’s finally out from under the confusion in NY and then the trade, working constantly and very hard, and now lazered in on the PF position to include his 3 pt shot and the ability to spread the floor, and back to a lighter but sturdier frame to give him the durability and quickness he needs inside and outside. I think he’s improved. This will certainly push Aldridge. Then you have Bayless. He’s one fierce young competitor – and although Mac has him pencilled as the 4th guard, if anyone thinks that’s going to make him happy, they don’t know Bayless. I like the current distribution noted above – but think that Outlaw had better have done more than just work on his left handed dribble this summer. Blake, Frye, Bayless, Fernandez, and Oden have all been putting in OverTime. I like Outlaw and his athleticism – but he’s now playing with players who smell the future – and he needs to gear his game up another notch to get the shots he wants. Webster does too. Looks to me like there’s going to be some fierce competition this year on this team.

by Eben Calder on Sep 4, 2008 12:08 PM PDT reply actions

There is real merit in your approach and I commend you

(Also rec’d).

The intrigue I have is how will the opponents adjust to this many offensive weapons and until they do, how does Coach Nate still preach defense? Just running the pick and roll between Greg and any four or five back court players will open up our scoring wonderfully (for my money Rudy will be out best combination because he has far more experience in running the pick and roll and he is the best shooter among guards who can also pass)(and my money would still add up to less than a dollar!).

The real change in our offense might become the number of foul shots we are awarded. That would predominately be Greg, Bayless, Roy and Rudy. No coach wants to allow layups or dunks and the breadth of weapons forces defenders into more reach-ins and off balance positions. That factor alone may skew the shots since those attempts do not count unless made. Note also that our only two good FT percentage players (Jack and Jones) are gone from last year.

by lee3022 on Sep 6, 2008 5:15 PM PDT reply actions

The unfortunate thing of FTs are

it will detract from our overall fga, as all that time used to set up the shot will not yield one only a FT. While it is rue we lost Jones 87.8 and Jack 86.7, we got in Rudy 91.4 and Bayless 83.7 so in their replacements we gain a little bit in the percentages, even more if we look at Rudy’s ULEB FT% of 9(fricken)4.1% which is astounding.

Either way we have a lot of fun coming up this season.

The season cannot get here soon enough.

by SpyderRyder on Sep 6, 2008 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions

If your not having fun this season

You will be asked to speak to one of our counsulars,the mandatory fun rule is in force and poo buts will be asked to leave

by southern oregon on Sep 6, 2008 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions

But they also stop the clock while we score so we might see an increase in possessions as well

I hope the FT averages hold up for Bayless and Rudy but moving from a 30-40 game schedule to a 100+ game schedule (including playoffs) will draw some tired rookies into a lower percentage as the season moves on. Jack and Jones were conditioned for the schedule. Jack improved from 80% to 87% after his rookie year. Jones only played in 6 games his rookie year and shot 85% his second year improving to 88% his 4th and 5th years.

by lee3022 on Sep 7, 2008 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions

I think regardless

of whether or not it stops the clock, youi still have to make a play towards the basket and attempt a shot to get FTs and that time is there whether there is a fga or not. Perhaps a bit more posissions if the team is fouling late, but we would simply be content to run the clock at that point if they are fouling us intentionally.

Bayless may have some difficulty but he attempted 222 fts in only 30 games and Rudy averaged 259 in 53 games (ACB, ULEB and Olys) while Jack had 248 and Jones only had 98 fta’s last season. With the amount of time these rookies should be getting I am not too worried about them wearing out.

The season cannot get here soon enough.

by SpyderRyder on Sep 7, 2008 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions