Dave, while I appreciate the honest analysis, you fail to take a stand on your own two footed opinion. Ok, so we finish 7th in the Jerry Stackhoused Western Conference. It is where the Blazers should land barring injury, oppositional destruction, preferential treatment among league refs and the lucky bug. However, you still don’t tell us where YOU think these playoff thirsty gym rats of ours are likely finish the season. Or, are you just saving your actual prediction for a later post?

86 wins, including the game where Oden yanks down the rim so hard that the Rose Garden collapses into a black hole taking away all of CERN’s glory…

+1 for the apocalypse…

If Oden comes out strong and doesn’t tire out during the season — and also if any one of Rudy, Bayless or Webster reaches his potential — then you have to look at the Blazers from other teams’ point of view for a second. They’re going to be saying, “How do we stop that guy in the middle? And even if we do, how do we handle the rest of those guys? Our bench can’t even match up to their bench. We just don’t have an answer for that team.”

I do think the Blazers will have three drawbacks:

- They won’t always gel.
- They’ll start to get tired later in the season.
- They’ll struggle against a more experienced playoff team.

And yet, name a team that can just put the Blazers away. I think the Blazers are going to be everybody else’s problem instead of the other way around, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish very high.

But there’s a couple points to be made. First, Oden and Rudy aren’t typical rookies. GO has had the advantage of spending a season watching and travelling with his soon-to-be team. He’s received coaching, watched film, gotten NBA fitness training, even walked thru practices. So he’s really a “rookie & a half” at worst. As for Rudy, he’s been a pro hoopster for many years now, and has played at a high level on the international stage—including against the US Olympians. So while these guys will need to go thru an adjustment process in adapting to the NBA, I expect them to be playing like young veterans by midseason.

The other point: one injury to a key Jazz player (with the Blazers staying healthy), and the Blazers get the #4 seed. (Sorry Nuggets fans, but without Camby your team is toast.) Not to jinx the Jazz, but I think they’re about due for some misfortune. All teams run into it from time to time…

I have not much to add to your statements about the teams still ranking above or around us (I think Dallas will be better than at the end of last year with two good additions and a new coaching style, but that’s just me). Yet you are really underestimating one team by only mentioning them in one passing sentence: THE LA CLIPPERS

Don’t laugh, I’m not a fan of the team, and I think losing Brand hurt them enormously as compared to a Brand-Baron team that would be almost a lock for the playoffs every year. But they can still put on a good fight. A) They didn’t have him almost all season, just like we didn’t have Oden, so nothing is lost compared to a year ago. B) They recovered pretty quickly from that defection, and managed to get Camby for nothing from Denver. You say his loss “may hurt more than they realize”, and I agree since he is one of the best defensive big men at least on the weak side on an awful defensive team. But then, why should he not also help the Clippers a lot? He is angry and wants to prove that this “trade” was ridiculous, and if Kaman 2.0 shows up again that’s a potent front court able to hang with the best in the West. Add to that Tim Thomas and their two or three other big men, and they have a nice depth of good players there.

Same goes for the PG position, Baron Davis backed up by Jason Williams and Jason Hart is arguably better than in whatever order you sort our PGs. On small forward, the additional loss of Maggette as their top scorer hurts, but Thornton showed signs of being a player not much unlike Travis last season and should be a solid starter for them. And Ricky Davis is an awful defender and locker room cancer, but offensively you could just as well start him. On SG Mobley is declining, but still okay, and they found a nice backup with Gordon in the draft who should be able to contribute a bit from the beginning.

To me, that looks like a team with a good mix of experience and youth able to sneak into the playoffs just as well as our more talented but still very young team. I think we finish ahead of the Clippers, but that’s not guaranteed in any way.

I don’t really expect Oden to come out and win games for us until late in the season. I’m looking for improved play from Martell and pleasant surprises from Rudy and Bayless to keep us afloat until Oden really arrives. I think Aldridge too will become more of a force for us taking away from Brandon’s fame a little. If all of this plays out I can see us winning 47-50 games. I’m callin the Spurs as a 7th seed too. Lookin forward to that matchup with the l*kers.

Jeremy from Pickaxe And Roll says (in a post eerily similar to this one, but about The Nugs…)

As far as Portland, I could see them finishing with 55 wins and I could see them finishing with 41 again. I believe there will be an adjustment period as they add Greg Oden to their rotation and I also think Oden will struggle too, at least over the first month or two of the season. On the other hand a crunch time lineup of Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden and Travis Outlaw/Jerryd Bayless/Martell Webster sounds pretty formidable.

Link

52 wins. I have high hopes, can you blame me? Trust me, I would settle for 8th. However, while watching the last game of the season against Phoenix I made a little “friendly” wager with a friend of mine. I said we would be 6th (and this was before Rudy commited to coming over). I bet $100. So, not only would I be extremely happy if we made the playoffs at all, let alone 6th, I would be $100 richer :)

I’m not going to predict something without at least having some idea of what this team looks like out on the floor. Let alone how other teams are going to perform.

As I’ve stated before, I think Greg Oden represents an additional ten wins. The trick is, does the rest of the team play at least to the level they did last season. If so, then Portland should crack the 50 win mark. Doing that would be my objective for this team. Where that puts us in the playoff seeding is anybody’s guess. It should at least get us in the playoffs. Once there, anything can happen.

I also think that one of the early keys for the Blazers will be how the officials react to Oden. I don’t remember specifically how Shaq was called his first few seasons in the league. I seem to recall that the officials gave him wide latitude almost from the start. The guy was so big and so fast and so overpowering that they hadn’t really seen a player like that. The result was they tended to overlook the fact he travelled on almost every play and saw the contact in terms of the defender trying to react, not O’Neill barrelling into them.

From what I’m hearing, Oden’s footwork is far superior to what Shaq’s was. And everyone is saying he is a physical beast on the court, not only the biggest player, but one of the fastest. If the officials give him any benefit of doubt on contact calls, Oden is going to be unstoppable down low and will be getting lots of opportunity at the charity stripe. Should this happen, Greg will have a major impact even if he has to spend half the game on the bench due to defensive fouls. That’s pretty much the worst case as I see it. Oden should be able to average 15 pts and 10 rebounds with just 25 minutes of PT. Plug that into the starting lineup and you get at least 5 extra victories.

finishing at the 8th seed with a 44-38 record.

an exercise in auto-eroticism

“seeding” takes on a second meaning here, doesn’t it? Intended? If so, hilarious.

I’d cry my eyes out ….

I’m partial to your analytical, realistic thinking.

My predictions for the season are right there where yours are regarding the Blazers —-although not necessarily so with a couple of the other teams.

I think it’s pretty safe to say that barring any major injuries to Roy or Oden, then we should be around 50 wins and definitely in the playoffs. I think we could possibly survive a loss of Aldridge for awhile. His game is going to be away from the basket a lot, and we all know what Channing can do if given the opportunity. If Roy or Oden don’t play at least 65-70 games a piece this year, we’re totally screwed.

Only fools and insiders bet big on sports.
I can only speak/think as a fan, so I avoid sports gambles.
That said, a big season is expected. 50+ wins is very possible.

Most optimistic: 34-28 after 62 games.
That is where I’m not sure, since the first 20 games are tough. Dig too big of a hole then +6 with 20 games left becomes much more difficult. Starting 5-15 makes 48 wins and the playoffs a long-shot, need to be 10-10 after the 1st 20.

Confident of 15-5 over the last 20 regardless of the record to this point. Best finish: 49-33. Only losses are to the higher seeds over the last 20.

Difference between 6th and 9th, maybe 2 games.

This season, especially early, will come down to how the team handles the last 5 minutes of the game. I figure the team will do better than last year
+ GO – should be worth 2 defensive rebounds, 1 offensive rebound and 2 points on the putback
+ LMA – 1 defensive rebound and 2 points
+ BRoy – 1 play off a defensive board and 2 points
+ Bayless – 1 steal
+ TO/Martell – 1 Block

overall, its about limiting the other teams possessions in my mind, so on average, there are 4 less possessions for the opponent than last year in the last 5 mins and +6 points for the Blazers. i haven’t done the analysis to see what that would do to last years record, but it takes a run out of the other team and makes close games not so close. same thoughts for end of quarters, but gotta get to work…

i would put teams like this

Pretty obvious top seeds
1. Hornets
2. Lakers

Almost guaranteed the playoffs

3. Jazz
4. Spurs
5. Rockets

In the playoffs last year but got worse

6. Suns
7. Mavericks
8. Nuggets

Missed the playoffs last year but improved
9. Blazers
10. Clippers

Missed the playoffs last but got worse
11. Warriors

Based on that I see seed 6-10 as possibilities.

I really think that if the blazers continue their arc of development, from the last two years, they can easily grab the sixth seed.

I think 7-9 is pretty reasonable, but finishing 4th is certainly not too far out there, either. If we win our division, we’ll probably have fewer wins than whichever of New Orleans or San Antonio gets second in their division. When you’re talking about final finish, 2 games can separate 3 positions in the playoff seedings. With that in mind, our 4 games against the Jazz could be huge. That’s a potential 8 game swing in our relative positions. If we play about the same or even a bit worse against the rest of the league, but sweep the Jazz, we could take the division. Not saying that’s going to happen or very likely, but it’s certainly worth remembering and hoping for.

That being said, I think we finish 6th, beating out Dallas and Phoenix, with LA Clippers and Denver in 9 & 10.

Dave thanks for the insight…

I agree with almost everything you said, with one exception and that would be the placement of Houston. I respect the talent that Houston has put together, but I don’t think it helps the team win this season. I feel that Yao’s participation in the Olympics will have an impact on his health, especially at the start of the season. The addition of Ron Artest is good on paper, but not in practice. I think he becomes a distraction that damages the chemistry of the team. I think that we will see Houston at a 7 or 8 seed this year.
This will hopefully push Portland to a 6 or 7 seed.

I think the Blazers can get 7th in the west. I’d love to say higher, but that would be too much too soon. 45-37 is what I predict their record to be. As for the playoffs, I’d say second round is very reachable. They made great strides last year, and calling the Blazers a playoff team this year isn’t out of the question. The time is now to show and prove. It’ll be tough in the stacked west. Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Dallas, even G State. Some of many good teams in the west, but I believe the Blazers can do great things this year and make some good strides.

Ha ha, I kill me.

But seriously folks. 82-0, number one seed, never lose a game, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. My fanpost would just be the schedule with a “W” next to each game, and the summary would be, “Greg Oden dunked on (insert name of team’s franchise player)’s head.”