First, this might get very long, so be warned. Second, I was inspired by SamGoody's fan post about how the Blazers should look more at the division crown, than just making the playoffs.  Personally I believe the Blazers will make the playoffs this year, and after doing some research, I think they will beat the Jazz out and get the number 4 seed as well.  The following is how I came to this conclusion.

First I researched the Jazz, what moves they made this summer to get better, and how their returning players might improve.  A couple of things came up, first, and maybe more important, is that there are rumors flying about Carlos Boozer. The Jazz owner recently talked about it and basically said, they will not break the bank to keep him at the end of this season, stateing, "we will not be a luxury tax paying team". Boozer has a player option for next season, most "experts" are predicting he will decline it and go into a very big FA market where many teams will have enough cap room to offer big dollars. (How would OKC look with Boozer in their line up?)

Boozer is not the only important Jazz member with a player option though, Mehmet Okur does as well, it is unknown which way he is leading, but for the sake of arguement lets say he picks up the option for $9 million, that along with Williams's new extention, (approx $16.6 million starting next year) the Jazz will have about $64million committed in salaries. (this is assuming they can't unload the Russian on someone)

According to the NBA Salary Cap FAQ the Luxury tax for the 2008-2009 season is set at $71.15 million, which means the Jazz only have about $7 million to spend on Boozer if they want to stay below the cap. I doubt Boozer takes a pay cut from his $11.6 million dollar salary to help them out, (we all know Boozer goes where the cash is at, just ask Cleveland).  So Basically the Jazz have to unload Andrei Kirilenko or they will watch Boozer bolt. Their problems could be lessened if Okur declines his player option and they renounce him, as that would free up $9 million more for Boozer, which should please him.

The point of all of that, was this; The Jazz players have alot of their minds this season, so their concentration may not be where it needs to be at in a tough conference.

Now add to that, the only move they made in the offseason was trading their back up poing, for another back up point, and their two main stars playing all summer for the Olympics and this team could not be much better than last year,(54-28) infact it could even be worse.

With all this in mind I looked at their schedule, and played out each game to see what I believe their record will look like at the end of the season.

November 13-5

• The Jazz have a pretty easy early schedule, only 5 games against playoff team from last year, although 4 of them are on the road.
• They have 1 five game east coast road trip that is 7days long.

December 8-7

• Their easy early schedule takes a harder turn in Dec with 8 games against playoff teams
• another five game trip, this time it is 9 days
• Only 6 of their 15 games are at home where they are at their best.

January 9-6

• 8 games against last years playoff teams but many are at home
• longest road trip is 3 games
• 8 of 15 games are in Utah

Feburary 9-2

• The All-Star month should be good to the Jazz
• Only 4 games against playoff teams
• 8 of 11 are in Utah
• all 3 road games are against non-playoff teams

March 8-7

• The Jazz better do well in Feb, because March and April will test them
• 9 of 15 games against playoff teams
• 5game east coast trip over 8 days
• only 6 of 15 at home

April 4-4

• I don't see how the Jazz finish better than .500 in April
• 5 of 8 against playoff teams
• 5 of 8 on the road and
• 3 back to backs in a short about of time.

That adds up to a 51-31 total predicted record for the Utah Jazz. 3 games worse than last year. Last year the Jazz struggled through the first 2 months of the season before turning it on, if they do that again this year, they might just lose out on the Division Crown.

So, after I looked up the Jazz, I turned to Portland, we all know what they have done this summer, what new players are being added, etc... so I won't go over that accept for a few predictions on individual players.

1. Oden will be a monster This Year.  I want to temper my expectations, but my heart tells me this kid could avg close to 18pts, 11rebs and 2.5 blks and Win the ROY trophy.
2. LaMarcus will avg 20+ and make the all star team along with Oden and Roy, although it might take an injury to a player selected by fans to get him in.
3. Roy will avg about the same points as last year, but more assists and rebounds, and the same great 4th quarters.

So taking everything the Blazers did over the summer, including how they will basically have no distractions what so ever, I took a look at their schedule. We all heard about the tough start, but I wanted to really dig into it and see for myself what I believed this team was capable of.

November 10-8

• Yes that is not a typo. I believe this team can go 10-8 to start off the season
• only 7 of 18 are at home, 10 are against playoff teams from last year, there are 5 back to backs, and 1 five game road trip that will take 9 days.
• But they play the T-Wolves twice, Golden State once, Sacramento twice, and Miami twice all of which are winnable games.
• of the playoff teams they play the Hornets twice, but they played very well against them last season at home, which one of these is. The Lakers on opening night in LA is also a winnable game and who knows how good the Suns will be this year, (2 games against them)
• it is a tough start, but this team can get through it at or above .500 I am sure of it.

December 11-3

• December is where this team will make its first run. It starts off with 5 game road trip that will take 8 days, but with games against the Knicks, and Wizards as well as a big hyped up game against Boston, I think this team will be up to the challenge. Still a record of 2 and 3 on this trip is still very good.
• After that trip the team has basically a really long home stand. 8 of their last 10 games are at home with trips to only Utah and Denver. All of them are winninable games.
• 11 of the 14 games are against playoff teams from last year, but here is the catch. Those teams are: The Wizards, Celtics x2, Raptors x2, Denver x2, Magic, Jazz, Suns and Mavs. Of those teams only the Celtics have a talent advantage over the Blazers. The teams they play twice are home and home series, and 5 of those games are against teams that are fading, not on the rise or in their prime.

January 10-4

• The Blazer keep on rolling as the schedule really starts to favor them
• 7 of 14 games are against playoff teams from last year.
• 8 of 14 are in Portland
• longest road trip is 4 games, (Chi, Phi, NJ, Charlotte)
• only 1 back to back.

Feburary 7-5

• 5 of 12 against playoff teams
• 7 of 12 on the road
• 2 back to backs
• They play OKC twice, the Knicks, Atlanta, the Clippers, Memphis, and Minnesota.

March 11-5

• Coming home should be fun to watch
• 10 of 16 are at the Rose Garden
• 9 of 16 are against playoff teams, but among those are Denver, Dallas and Atlanta.
• 3 back to back games
• 1 five game road trip that lasts 7 days, but has a favorable schedule,(Atlanta, Memphis, Indiana, Cleveland and Milwaukee).

April 6-2

• In the last month they face OKC twice, the Griz, the Clippers and Denver, all teams that they should beat.
• 5 of 8 are on the road
• 4 playoff teams, although one is the last game vs the Lakers at the Garden so the Blazers should pull that one out.
• I figued they would Lose @ Houston, and @ SA Spurs.

That gives the Blazers and over all record of 55-27 and would win them the division if the Jazz ended up where I predicted. So while none of this is a forgone conlusion, I think it is very possible for this team to put together a run this year, kind of like the Hornets did last year.

One last thing, in doing this I also ran and predicted every schedule for each team. I won't list them all, but how about the top 8 in each confrenece?

The West

1. Hornets 57-25
2. Rockets 56-26
3. Lakers 56-26
4. Spurs 55-27
5. Blazers 55-27
6. Jazz 51-31
7. Suns 47-33
8. Nuggets 44-38

The East

1. Boston 58-24
2. Pistons 52-30
3. Magic 52-30
4. 76ers 50-32
5. Cavs 49-33
6. Wizards 44-38
7. Raptors 42-40
8. Bulls 40-42

The biggest fall off from any team I am predicting is Dallas, I really feel Cuban destroyed his team last year. Kidd handicaps their salary cap and their spacing on the floor. Their decline at the end of last season was just the beginning. I guess the other big suprise is I have the Lakers finishing 4th in the west. Maybe I am overvalueing the Rockets, but man at some point they just have too much talent to not be better than they have shown.