Frye actually has a certain guaranteed market value (barring injury), plus he clearly loves being in Portland. Hence the kind of moderate deals that Steve Blake and Trout got last year could be pursued for both of these guys. I would be very surprised if the Blazers would relinquish the rights to either of the players next year (don’t know yet for Diogu), hence the cap hold would be on the order of 20 million for both. Signing them for around 5 or less per year would trim that in half. plus they wouldn’t be BYC in summer 2009, for trading purposes.

for reasonable salaries next season. By reasonable, I mean to a level above the full mid-level extension but not by a huge amount. This presumes they both live up to their expected growth expectations. Locking them up for a 3-4 year deal starting in the range of 5-7 million for Webster and 6-8 million for Frye (let’s face it Big men always get more) is a fair deal for both sides. Neither player should expect a better offer if they wait until RFA. and if they really play well in 3-4 years they can renogiate a new contract when their reaching their primes (the real payday). Even by sign them for the 7 and 8 million respectively, they Blazers will have plenty of cap space, to sign a near max (if not Max) contract. Or course we’d have to either let Ike go or trade him to maintain the full cap space. This year Ike and Frye will be fighting for the contract with the Blazers because whoever wins it will be the 3rd big in the rotation when we roll though for championship runs.

But we signed Travis for $4M a year, and I don’t see that Martell has earned a huge amount more than that. I would say $5M a year for three years would be a very good offer for both parties. If Martell plays better than that, he’s going to be very rich in three years. If not, he hasn’t destroyed us.

I don’t see any more than $5-6M for Channing, even though big men get more. He didn’t play that much for us even with Greg out. If Channing wants to stay, he has to accept his role and the financial ramifications of it. I’d love him to stay. This next year he might play well enough to justify better than that. But I just don’t see that he has done so yet. If he is extended now, it limits our cap flexibility next summer when it matters most, so that means it has to be at a lower price.

With Frye, Webster and Diogu on the cusp, next year will be every bit as challenging for KP as the last several years. This is why the first 40-50 games will be so critical to the Blazers, and to everyone of these players. We can’t, after all, slide into the summer with a combined cap hold of $37.6 million. At the same time, we must carefully evaluate who we will be keeping going forward, as well as negotiate realistic contracts that enable us to keep the team we want together, or to trade the player in the future without having to take some of their salary back because we overpaid.

There’s no question this is going to be a critical time frame for the Blazers and for these players. We will finally have to decide if Martell is the SF of the future, or if we need to improve the spot. This means he simply must step his game up another notch. He alone controls his real value going forward, not the Blazers. He’ll either be signed and kept, or signed and traded, or simply traded in combination with cap space. In terms of Frye, I agree with others that he also needs to find his permanent role on the team. From where I sit, if he wants to have more money, then he needs to demonstrate value at both the SF and Center spots. The key to championships is having key second line players than can cover two positions as needed. Starters are the most valuable, and two way players get the next level of pay. Players who are not starters and who cover only one position generally stay in the $2-$4 million range – permanently(Jones/Posey). It’s nice right now having the luxury of Pryz to back Oden, and Frye and Diogu to back Aldridge, but Diogu and Pryz are pretty much permanently cast at the positions they play. If Frye can play effectively two ways, it enables the Blazers to trade Pryz and his salary, for example, and substitue a cheaper version big body for minimal minutes. Diogu also has to step up. We don’t really, after all, know what he’s worth right now.

The issue for early signing, of course, is going to be complicated by the players themselves. If they think they’re worth more, they’re going to want to show it on the court before signing. So it is going to be quite a dance.

I’m not suggesting trading Pryz particularly. Merely pointing out that one dimensional players never make as much money as two -dimensional players and starters. Most of the meaningful minutes on most teams, after all, are played by 8 players, and maybe nine. As we saw last year, and will likely see in the future, most of the time at guard will be consumed by three players. If we have the right 5 players for the forward/center spots, they would also consume most of the minutes at those positions. These are the core of the team and the guys we want to pay the bucks to to keep. This allows us to then drop the salary’s of the rest down into the $1 million to $3 million range – at best. Giving us the money to keep the core together. Right now, I’m merely speculating – not proposing. Outlaw can play two positions off the bench, for example. Which is one reason I think he’ll be around awhile (assuming some modest defense/dribbling improvement). That leaves 4 players. Now, three of those players will be the starters – Aldridge, Oden and the starting SF (Webster or other). That leaves one spot open in that upper tier. A player who can give quality time at both the center and PF position would be ideal. Frye has shown some possibilities there. However, some of you are worried about his “rebounding” and others about his “scoring”. Conversely, if he actually does what Mac told him to do – which is improve his shooting, then the issue might be rebounding. However, if that were the case, then a less expensive old line power forward like Diogu might be preferable to a more expensive Pryz in the scheme of things. Pryz, because he could actually start for some teams in the league, will always be pretty expensive 16 minute insurance on the bench. In the end, we’ll have around 40 – 48 minutes available for second tier players at the three front line positions. The right two players could consume much of that time.

this year. I expect his contract to be more in the 6 mil raising to 8 mil range. (Boy that’s a lot of money but the crazy salaries of the NBA say to me that this is not out of line.)

Hopefully Martell is working on his ball control and dribbling for driving to the basket. For anyone who has forgotten Martell’s 24 points in one quarter, here is the You Tube of it: http://tinyurl.com/65pvs7 The coaches, Nate was at his mother-in-law’s funeral, called plays for Martell that often set up 2 picks for his open shots.

Martell also would score on fast break opportunities—something again that hopefully Nate will emphasize after his Olympic Asst Coach experience. Jack Ramsey used to say those were points there for the taking as they are usually high percentage shots near or at the basket. Martell can dunk most definitely.

So how Martell does this coming season depends greatly on whether plays are called for him. To me it appears that Nate stations Martell in the corner, or some other spot behind the 3 point line, to stand there while someone else tries to make a play. Martell only gets the ball after the other player’s play is stopped and he passes to Martell for perhaps an open shot. Other times Martell handles the ball just passing it around the outside. I would like more plays called for Martell to see how he has improved and to give him a chance to become a viable, game after game scoring option.