Final cuts for the future
by shwa on Aug 7, 2008 2:36 PM PDT
27 comments
Most of you have probably checked out Quick's blog series. I recently heard him interviewed here.
At one point, Quick suggests it is the intention of KP to whittle the roster down to an 8-man rotation. The never-ending fire of speculation of who will and who won't be here long term appears to have been given a fresh duraflame.
By my subjective count, I see at least ten players worthy of if not commanding major minutes next season. Here they are, in order of my preference.
1. Brandon Roy SG
2. Greg Oden C
3. LaMarcus Aldridge PF
4. Rudy Fernandez G (he was promised minutes was he not?)
5. Travis Outlaw SF (although Bayless will help with scoring off the bench)
6. Martell Webster SF (the most important season of his career)
7. Joel Pryzbilla C (Oden, Jr.)
8. Channing Frye PF
9. Steve Blake PG (many will argue he belongs further up, I disagree)
10. Jerryd Bayless PG
That's a pretty darn good top ten, and ALL of our other players will assuredly get some limited minutes as well. Sergio, Ike, Batum, and even Raef will all see at least some minutes, with Batum likely seeing the least. I would love to see Spanish Chocolate play alongside Rudy but that will be hard to justify in most scenarios. When we are up big early, I think they should utilize that duo to keep the pace of the game up and continue scoring because we did have trouble keeping leads last season (see philly) due to complacency.
So the question is, of my top ten players, whom do you see in another uniform by the time we're hanging banners? I have a suspicion many of you will say Martell and Blake because that's where I'm leaning. Blake is a great vet for this team now, but will he be okay chillin' on the bench while Bayless rips it up? Martell I personally love, but he may get squeezed if Rudy is as good as advertised. I don't see us giving up Travis and if Rudy comes in splashing 3s everywhere, it won't bode well for Martell especially given his contract scenario at season's end.
So, who is your 8 man rotation for the future? Who have you left out and why?
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not sure
I might want to go with Ike rather than Channing. It depends on how Ike pans out as a hustle banging big body rebounder. Channing duplicates LMA’s game, doesn’t he?
Winning is everything.
by MT Suit on Aug 7, 2008 2:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Channing is going to be a beast next year.
I think he’ll prove to be extremely productive, while Diogu rides the pine. Just a hunch though. I’m not surprised by much these days. But given the way he ended the season last year, holy smokes . . . if you don’t remember, it’s worth going to his player page on NBA.com and looking at his game log for the last six games or so. Ridiculously good. I thinks it going to carry right over into this year, granted he won’t be getting 30+minutes but I think he’s found his mojo.
by noaher on Aug 7, 2008 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know I'll be criticized for writing this
but I think there’s a good chance that Outlaw will be out of this 8-men rotation, with Brandon/Rudy playing minutes at the 3.
by Falcao on Aug 7, 2008 2:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I won't criticize you for writing it.
I will respectfuly disagree.
by noaher on Aug 7, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I not only won't criticize you
I will agree with you!
by usmcr3049 on Aug 7, 2008 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
only five
will be hanging banners with us:
Oden
Roy
Aldridge
Bayless
Pryzbilla
The rest will be either out of the rotation or traded for pieces that fit better.
Fernandez, Trout and Martell are high-upside guys that we’ll use as bait for a more consistent, quality, purer-shooting 3. The rest of the bench rotation will be Posey-type role players to do a couple of things well—Batum actually is the only one who might still be with us in that sort of role. I guess Trout or Martell could still be here as a backup 3, but for whatever reason I just don’t think that’s going to happen.
by kickbrass on Aug 7, 2008 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
switch
Bayless and Rudy and I pretty much agree with you. Funny how the winds of change make Bayless and sure fire starter and Rudy expendable. (not directly talking about you, but a general feeling I get from blazers fans about the two players.)
by usmcr3049 on Aug 7, 2008 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought hard about that
But really Rudy is a 2 and we already have a guy who plays that position very well—I think you might have heard of him. Ultimately teams with two very good players at the same position don’t keep both (see Toronto, TJ Ford and Rudy’s backcourt partner Jose Calderon). If Portland could get equal value for him but a guy who plays SF, they’d do the deal. And I think that’s more likely than trying to squeeze him in as a 1 or 3.
My list of five is based on the fact that really it’s all about Roy, Oden and Aldridge. If Rudy, Trout, Martell or any other young’uns ends up being as good as they can, they’d all be better fits on another team and we’d be better off trading them for more compatible parts.
Pryzbilla and Bayless are the only ones I see staying because their strengths fill in around ROA. Pryzbilla gives us toughness, a very solid (and reasonably-priced) backup C and some of that “veteran leadership”. Bayless gives us hard-nosed D at the point, a decent shooting touch, and the ability to bring the ball up the floor and let Roy run the offense.
Martell I see as the least likely of our “talented upside” guys to stay. Trout or Rudy could fit into the picture as off-the-bench offense, but their perceived defensive shortcomings could really be an issue.
I actually believe that Rudy will end up being a better NBA player than Bayless, just not for us.
by kickbrass on Aug 7, 2008 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the main difference
Is that situations like Calderon/TJ Ford or, say, Drexler/Petrovic, is that those players can’t play WITH each other on the court at the same time for more than brief stretches.
Since Roy and Rudy are both playmakers who can shoot and create and dribble and stuff, they can play together (probably) pretty easily. They are combo guards whose skills complement, not detract. You can have two playmakers with good size out on the floor, who can also play away from the ball and shoot. You can’t have two short PGs out there waiting to get killed by the average SG, or two big post men who both need to be right next to the basket to be effective—we’ll see what the ultimate impact of Rudy is, but it’s sorta like saying that LMA and Oden are both going to be scoring big man and you don’t need two of those. If both Rudy or Roy were just non-playmaking scorers like, say, Michael Redd or Monta Ellis, then yeah, it wouldn’t likely work.
Either way, it’s still way too soon to make nearly-concrete predictions over who will be gone in a few months/years. Not that I mind the discussion of course, but I don’t see how any deep thought over the rotation doesn’t end up in ‘well, I guess we’ll see how they translate to the NBA and/or how they play together’.
I agree it’s all about ROA, and finding those who fit them. The players who will “suffer” are those who have a limited game that doesn’t match what we need. By all reports, Rudy is pretty versatile. Bayless fits a need with penetration and scoring and hopefully defense—but what if he isn’t a good defender, just like Jack wasn’t? Jack was heralded as the best defending PG of his draft and obviously he just didn’t have the quicks for it. I doubt this will happen with Bayless, but who knows? Maybe it becomes clear we don’t NEED his sort of scoring as well, for whatever reason.
Basically, I don’t know how any of us could have a confident opinion on who, beyond ROA, will be with us in 2, 3 years time. To me, ANY of them could find a home here in Portland and be a part of the dynasty. There are so many question marks left…
Not saying you’ve already decided the career paths for the young dudes, I just think the possibility for everyone to go every which way is much higher than most of the predictions I’ve seen.
There is plenty of minutes for all, with my prediction being Blake and Frye get the shaft for minutes. I also could see a 4th quarter controversy happening, because SOMEONE out of Bayless/Blake/Rudy/Outlaw/Martell will be sitting during crunch time…
Again, I don’t mind the predictions or this sort of conversation. Just don’t see how anyone can have enough info until we see ‘em play is all! Final cuts talk gots to happen at LEAST after this season…
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Aug 8, 2008 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blake stays.
I could be wrong now. But I don't think so!
by Kampeska on Aug 7, 2008 3:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Until 2010
Odenied: Coach, I promise I wasn't running hard ...
by Norsktroll on Aug 7, 2008 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is diffucult
Group A: The Obvious
1. Brandon Roy (PG/SG/SF)
2. Greg Oden©
3. Lamarcus Aldridge (PF/C)
Group B: Other Starters and Key Reserves
1. Rudy Fernandez (PG?/SG/SF?)
2. Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG?)
3. Joel Pryzbilla
4. Unknown Starting SF(SF/PF) (We trade Martell and Outlaw for one very solid, consistant contributor)
Group C: Unnecessary Group of Potential Number Eight Players
1. Steve Blake
2. Channing Frye
3. Ike Diogu
4. Unknown
My Guess is that the eighth player will be either Diogu of Frye so
So with that this is my starting line-up and Key Reserves
PG: Bayless/Roy/Fernandez
SG: Roy/Fernandez/Bayless
SF: Unknown Starter/Roy/Fernandez
PF: Aldridge/ Unknown Starting SF/ Frye or Diogu/(possibly Oden if we ever decided to go uber big with Joel & Oden playing together)
C: Oden/ Pryz
White Russain: drink of choice of The Dude/ El Duderino
by McLovinVs.TheDude on Aug 7, 2008 3:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Greg Oden was not intentionally copyrighted that was supposed to indicate he is a center
White Russain: drink of choice of The Dude/ El Duderino
by McLovinVs.TheDude on Aug 7, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Greg Oden©
Brandon Roy®
I tried to come up with more and failed. I know there are though.
by joelor on Aug 7, 2008 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty simple for me
1. Brandon Roy SG
– Obviously staying
2. Greg Oden C
– Obviously staying
3. LaMarcus Aldridge PF
– Obviously staying
4. Rudy Fernandez G (he was promised minutes was he not?)
- Staying
5. Travis Outlaw SF (although Bayless will help with scoring off the bench)
- Gone in trade
6. Martell Webster SF (the most important season of his career)
- Gone in trade
7. Joel Pryzbilla C (Oden, Jr.)
- Staying
8. Channing Frye PF
- Gone in trade
9. Steve Blake PG (many will argue he belongs further up, I disagree)
- Staying
10. Jerryd Bayless PG
- Unknown
That is 6 staying 3 gone by trade, and 1 unknown in Bayless. I can almost guarentee it. And to those who love Outlaw, do you love his game? Or is personality? I love his interviews and the way he carries himself, but if this team wants to win, he will be let go in a trade unless he drastically improves both his offense, (less bad shots) and his defense, (both individual and team defense).
by usmcr3049 on Aug 7, 2008 3:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why I love Travis Outlaw . . .
I admit part of it is sentimental. I remember watching games in ‘04-’05 with my dad. Here was our roster: Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Derek Anderson
Richie Frahm
Viktor Khryapa
Darius Miles
Travis Outlaw
Ruben Patterson
Joel Przybilla
Zach Randolph
Theo Ratliff
Ha Seung-Jin
Damon Stoudamire
Sebastian Telfair
Nick Van Exel
Now, we were watching a lot of games this season. It was difficult. Trying to see the potential in Ha. Hoping that Telfair was all the hype. Really enjoying the energy, defense, and flashes of offense that Khryapa brought to the game (I remember one game in particular he was just giving T-Mac fits). Debating with myself as to whether we should stick with Abdur-Rahim or Randolph. But my favorite player that year, and every year since, has been Travis Outlaw, beacuse I saw flashes of what he could be if given time, excellent coaching, and a healthy environment. When KP took over as head coach and started playing all of the young guys and basically throwing the season down the toilet, Travis was the guy that got me excited. I remember some conversation at work amongst some colleagues that year during the playoffs or something, and it came up “Who’s your favorite basketball player? . . . . . . . Who? Travis Outlaw?” I remember telling them, you will know his name in a few years. This guy is going to be great some day. Every year I watch him get better and better. He is a Blazer through and through, drafted by us and I hope he finishes his career with us. I get the feeling that the Travis Outlaw fans have been through a similar experience to one I just described. Basketball is a business yes, but damnit, I’m a fan and Travis Outlaw is my favorite player. What am I supposed to do?
by noaher on Aug 7, 2008 4:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Trout most impressive career stats
has been to maintain his points per 36 minutes production. Over the first four years he had a staedy 15pts/36 minutes while sdtaedily incrasing his minutes. Last year he brought that up to 18 pts/36 minutes, even while playing incrased minutes. Not many players maintain production with such a huge increase of minutes, let alone increase the rate of production in those minutes.
That all being said, The key question to the eight players is “what time frame are we looking at?” IF we must pair it down to eight player in 2 years then we will know all we need to about Rudy, Bayless, Trout, and Webster. If you assume its by the end of this season then it is a harder decision. The point is KP has time to make an informed decision before paing the team to 8 core players. Many of the non-core players will be people slipping into a reserve role (in case of injury to one of the 8). I see Joel and Blake being one of the latter type of player. Then our 8 will have three bigs, three guards, a forward and the best player availble who play play at guard/forward. The bigs will be Oden, Lma, and most likely Frye, Roy, Rudy and Bayless are the likely guard rotation and then the next best two players will be Trout and Webster. That will be the 8 if they develope as expected. Otherwise, the ones that don’t pan out will be traded with other assets to upgrade the spot they were occupying.
by NWfan on Aug 7, 2008 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is not rare for players to be able to maintain per minute production with increased playing time
In fact most players improve their per minute production a little bit when they get more playing time.
by trk on Aug 7, 2008 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was suprised that Trout was so consistent
even though his minutes went from 2.4 per game to 26.7 per game over five seasons, yet maintained at least 15pts/per 36minutes played. The stats are here
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/outlatr01.html
Most players don’t go that extreme in a change of minutes while maintaining production per minute. But, after looking at a few other players, I’ll concede that is isn’t that uncommon to do.
by NWfan on Aug 7, 2008 11:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Agree
With NWfan that will most likely be the way K.P. thinking goes. We have very good players already that will just get better. And Nate and K.P. will get that 8 player rotation from what we have with in. and keep some of the others as role players.
by billyjoejack on Aug 7, 2008 7:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you're backwards
We’ve been in “try to find a core” mode with young guys for a couple of years now.
We got the core. Roy, Aldridge, Oden.
Now, we need to find guys around the edges whose strenghts compliment the 3 and compensate for weaknesses. We need niche talents, not overall stars. Martell will not be that. Travis might but I doubt it. Rudy, if he’s lights-out from 3 only. We’d be better off targeting other players in the league at this point who play better D and know the game better. Rudy and Trout are on bargain deals right now, though, so I think they’re safe for now. No way I see Martell here after this season.
That’s how San Antonio built their dynasty and it’s where KP went to GM school.
And now for my grand conclusion: 1+1=2
by kickbrass on Aug 7, 2008 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we haven't seen them play together yet
and so we don’t know how they’ll mesh. Also we knew three years ago that we’d be rebuilding for a few years, which Is why we drafted younger guys and not 4-year college guys at the start of our rebuild, then added older players with the subsequent drafts.
I watched a Blazers classic game the other night from 1992 in game 7 against the spurs in the WC semifinals. Granted rules have changed significantly (zone defense, hand checking), but our team had much better flow on offense than the entire 2nd half of that game by the Blazers. Their was very little ball movement on offense, just isolation plays and occasional picks. All the hustle was by Kersey scrapping on the Offensive glass. Mind you their defense was great, especially in stopping transition baskets. But my point is the Blazers looked much better last year on offense than did the ‘92 Blazers in that game 7 of the playoffs. I can’t see our offense regressing next year with the addition of Oden (subtraction of Pryz) and Rudy while replacing Jack with Bayless. Our defense should improve as all of our players grow together. I just say we’re safer to sit back and watch and then decide who to keep and who to send packing. We have more to lose by acting (read: trading) pre-maturely.
by NWfan on Aug 8, 2008 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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