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Pure as the Driven Lane

Matt over at sister-site Ridiculous Upside has done some interesting analysis incorporating some previous work by Tom Ziller (of Sactown Royalty fame) on the subject of point guard purity.  Basically the idea is some guys are passers, others are scorers.  Jerryd Bayless makes an appearance in this analysis so it might be worth your while.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)  

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It's really interesting....

and it will be more interesting to see if Bayless goes up or down on the scale after a few seasons in the NBA. The study showed that Hinrich increased his true point guard skills quite a bit (27 to 56) in the jump from college to the NBA while Gordon’s number went down (32 to 21). I tend to think that Jerryd’s number will increase (like Hinrich’s) from 29 to somewhere around 45 or 50 after a few years in the NBA. He will learn to be a better assist man because he’ll have better scorers around him and he won’t be playing shooting guard like he did in college.

by Mauricas Lou on Aug 7, 2008 1:05 AM PDT reply actions  

Where's TiH when you need him.

Within a few hours of each other we have posts called “Pure as the Driven Lane” and “Rebecca Haarlow Likes to Party”. Hahahaha! As Southern Oregon says “You gotta love this place. One day its the fashion page the next fine dining”.
It’s the diversity that makes the Bedge go.

"Besides, AnntheFan will be here any minute to #25 you." T Darkstar

by annthefan on Aug 7, 2008 3:23 AM PDT reply actions  

I still don't understand stats; they're like the eHarmony of basketball and just tell people what they want to hear.

After reading Mr. Upside’s post, it looks like we need to hire a passing coach for Bayless.

"The only difference between a good shot and a bad shot is if it goes in or not." - Charles Barkley

by tominhawaii on Aug 7, 2008 6:32 AM PDT reply actions  

They tell me what I want to hear?

Will they tell me that I am smart, funny and good looking? Will they tell me I just won ten million Canadian dollars?

I could learn to love statistics.

One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season

"In vino veritas." - Latin proverb
"Ich sitze hier und trinke mein gutes Wittenbergisch Bier und das Reich Gottes kommt von ganz alleine" - Martin Luther
"μηκέτι ὑδροπότει, ἀλλὰ οἴνῳ ὀλίγῳ χρῶ διὰ τὸν στόμαχον καὶ τὰς πυκνάς σου ἀσθενείας." - 1 Timothy 5:23

by T Darkstar on Aug 7, 2008 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's true

If someone thinks their favorite player should be in the game, they find the stats to support their claim and ignore all others. The +/- thing is used a lot for that.

"The only difference between a good shot and a bad shot is if it goes in or not." - Charles Barkley

by tominhawaii on Aug 7, 2008 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I got a chuckle out of one of their site rules:

Only one Bowie reference is allowed per year …. so make it count.

I remember telling him how impressed I was with a player during summer league. In Avery's unique voice, he replied, "Marc, it's summer league." I

by TwoDeep on Aug 7, 2008 7:57 AM PDT reply actions  

Oh God!

I thought you meant David Bowie, not the other one!

--

by CaptainSexyJacob on Aug 7, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

I thought the reference might be to...

Jim Bowie.

LMA's reign as "LaMonster of the Low Post" has just begun!

by LaMarvelous on Aug 7, 2008 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

You should also read the "Ballad for the Combo Guard" linked in the article

Interesting perspective, though for Bayless I guess the numbers are somewhat useless as he played SG for most of the season in college when their regular PG went down with an injury. How should he come up higher on the “pure” scale when his main job was to score?

Odenied: Coach, I promise I wasn't running hard ...

by Norsktroll on Aug 7, 2008 9:00 AM PDT reply actions  

He should have added a comment

about the relevancy of a pure point guard to begin with. An article like that just perpetuates the idea that every team needs a Chris Paul, Steve Nash, or Jason Kidd to suceed.

Last time I checked Nash and Kidd both had amazingly successful careers by being a pure point with no ring to show for it.

If you're paddling upstream in a canoe and a wheel falls off, how many pancakes fit in a doghouse? None! Ice cream has no bones!

by Arby on Aug 7, 2008 9:56 AM PDT reply actions  

An interesting question

How useful is this analysis for non-PGs who have reputations as excellent passers?

Among current NBA players, I’m thinking T-Mac, LeBron, Wade…and Brandon Roy.

Anyone have those numbers?

by EngineerScotty on Aug 7, 2008 10:21 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Assists

There is a certain breed of hoops fans that are partial to specific types of players. I’ve got a buddy back in NYC who’s enamored of bruising power forwards in the vein of Charles Oakley (whom he still numbers among his all time faves) The first thing he’d look at every morning when he scanned the box scores were the rebounding numbers posted around the league. This was his benchmark for basketball excellence. I remember one morning when he wrote off the entire career of Knicks’ center Bob McAdoo after noting in the box score that he had played 40 minutes and grabbed one rebound. No matter how many points McAdoo scored for the Knicks from that point on, my friend never forgave him for that transgression.

Me, I like PGs. A well executed pass never fails to bring me to my feet. “Clyde” Frazier was one of my first hoop heroes but I have also thrilled to the exploits of the Big “O”, Magic, Stockton, Nash, and now, Paul. Like my friend with McAdoo, I have scarcely bothered to conceal my disdain for those prolific scorers – like Marbury or Arenas – who are laughingly referred to as point guards. And so, while my friend was poring over the rebounding numbers, I would be religiously checking the box scores for the nightly assist totals.

So it was with great interest that I read Ziller’s ballad of the combo guard, wherein he argues that the infatuation with “pass-first” PGs is somewhat misguided. I’d urge anyone interested in this subject to read the article in its entirety. He makes many excellent points, but the one that resonated the most with me was something that’s been nagging at me for awhile, namely the unreliability of the assist statistic that I had long thought of as gospel:

Quite possibly, no assist is created equal, and our rash cookie-cutter generalizations only cloud the value of the pass, discounting the truly vital (an alley-oop, a backdoor bounce for an easy layup) to the level of the coincidental (the shuffle pass which leads to single-clutch fall-away from 15).

I remember hearing once that in Europe, the official scorers are much more stingy when it comes to recording assists. I’m guessing this means that the player who kicks the ball out to an open man who hits a three does not get credited with an assist, as the act of scoring was more a factor of the shooter’s individual skill than it was of the pass. I’d love to see a similar metric come into vogue over here.

Although the main thrust of Ziller’s essay was to downgrade their importance to a team’s success in the NBA, I nonetheless remain partial to the concept of the “pass-first” PG. That’s why I’d like to see the one statistic that’s long been used to measure their contributions be tightened up to better reflect their truly unique status among NBA players.

by knickfan on Aug 7, 2008 10:27 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Ah, yes

The original Clyde, with apologies to Mr. Drexler.

A guy that Brandon is oft compared to.

And still the best dresser the league has ever seen, Pat Riley included.

by EngineerScotty on Aug 7, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I do see a similarity

“Clyde” was known for his cool style of play. Never rushed, always within himself, very much like the pace favored by Brandon when he’s running the offense.

And while I’m here, I’d like to take a minute to address the McAdoo reference in my original comment. Aftter I submitted my post, I realized that one of the old timers on this site might take pains to point out that McAdoo averaged nearly 10 rpg for his career. I’ve even pointed this out to my friend on more than one occasion. However, he remains steadfast in his belief that any low post player who only manages to grab one rebound in 40 minutes of action in any NBA contest does not deserve to be called a center.

by knickfan on Aug 7, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

And who was Frazier's backcourt mate..

when the Knicks won their two titles back in the 70s?

Earl “The Pearl” Monroe—-a small, lightning-quick, high-scoring point guard. Remind you of any rookies on the Blazers’ roster?

Of course, comparing Bayless to a HOFer like Monroe is ridiculously premature, and I should probably thwack myself (OW! There…) for typing such heresy. But the style of plays between the two backcourt tandems is similar.

And of course, it is to Brandon Roy’s credit that I don’t feel similar levels of guilt at the prospect of mentioning him in the same breath as Frazier.

I can’t wait for Halloween.

by EngineerScotty on Aug 7, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

What's Ziller's metric for deriving these numbers?

I’d like to apply it to Rudy, just for gits and shiggles.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Aug 7, 2008 12:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Oh, hey - FOUND IT!

In Ziller’s original piece (which the linked-to Ridic Upsies piece in turn links to) sez thees:
So how do we aptly measure purity? By taking quality out of the equation. We do not judge here, we only describe.
Let’s take measureable point guard activities on one side (that’d be assists) and measureable impure PG activities
on the other (that’d be shots, which can be boiled into FGAs and FTAs).
We’ll adjust FTAs to account for the reality of 2-shot fouls (‘FTAs x 0.44’ is the standard here).
We’ll find the league average for point guards and adjust accordingly to get a nice round scale.
And, of course, we’ll stick a catchy name on it and slap it into a shiny graphic. Thus, The Purity Scale.

No description of what formula to apply those stats to, but according to DraftExpress, in ULEB and ACB play combined last year,
Rudy had 13.2 FGAs, 5.8 FTAs, and 4.1 assists per game in 30 games of ACB play,
and 10.4 FGAs, 3.4 FTAs, and 3.7 assists per game in 15 games of ULEB play, in both cases with DKV Joventut.

That adds up to 552 FGAs, 225 FTAs, and 178 assists total.
No idea what to do with those now.

If it helps, since that’s for 45 games total, that’s 12.27 FGAs, 5 FTAs, and 3.96 assists per game.
And using DraftExpress’ per-40-minutes stats, he’s got 18.4 FGAs, 6.0 FTAs, and 6.5 assists per 40
in ULEB play and 18.9 FGAs, 8.3 FTAs and 5.8 assists per 40 minutes in ACB play, which leads to an overall of:

18.73 FGAs, 7.53 FTAs, and 6.03 assists per 40 minutes
0.47 FGAs, 0.188 FTAs, and 0.15 assists per minute

So now what?

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Aug 7, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Suppose I should at least convert FTAs into 0.44xFTAs form.

Per game:
552 FGAs, 99 (FTAx0.44), and 178 assists

Per 40 minutes:
18.73 FGAs, 3.31 (FTAx0.44), and 6.03 assists

Per minute:
0.47 FGAs, 0.83 (FTAx0.44), and 0.15 assists

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Aug 7, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Question from a non-native speaker

what’s “driven lane”?
I tried to google it and it shows this thread at the 1st place.

by Falcao on Aug 7, 2008 4:59 PM PDT reply actions  

Here ya go:

In this picture, the lane is purple.

In this one, it’s blue.

Here is someone “driving the lane”.
And here is someone “driving the lane” and wiping out.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Aug 7, 2008 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

NOOO!

How dare you post a picture of a backyard court in Flakers colors!!! Purple (or is it blue?) and gold have no place here. Dave’s going to have to put you on probation, mister.

by royroty on Aug 8, 2008 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, it's a cropped shot.

You can’t see it, but in the near corner, where Coby frequently attempts a three from?
I laid down a nice, neat, curled piece of fecal snausage.

So it’s okay.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Aug 10, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

They've got it

There’s a phrase in English: “Pure as the driven snow.” It means pure, unspoiled and untouched.

Matt and Tom talked about point guards using the word “pure”.

Point guards who score often drive down the lane to get layups. Although those would mostly be scoring point guards, and maybe not as pure by Matt’s and Tom’s standards.

So the play on words was: “Pure as the driven lane”.

-Dave
-Dave

by Dave on Aug 7, 2008 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

It loses some of the punch when you have to explain it

like a joke

"There something going on with that Skipper. No one gets that fat eating coconuts"

by 92wastheyear on Aug 7, 2008 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

that may be true

but i got a good chuckle when i first read it this morning.

"You'd rather say 'whoa' than 'giddyup.'" ~ Dean Demopoulos

by Ben Golliver on Aug 7, 2008 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Me too...but I was half asleep

I sometimes read posts I did first thing in the morning and just shake my head. At least I don’t post when I am drunk.

"There something going on with that Skipper. No one gets that fat eating coconuts"

by 92wastheyear on Aug 7, 2008 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

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