It takes an 8 game winning streak to get back to five hundred? In the West, that’s trouble. I guess time will tell.

It maybe that Schedule analysis is just something I don’t get into very much. But it seems this season that it’s that much more difficult this far out. So much of how good The Blazers might be at any given point in the season from start to finish hinges on so many, at this point, unpredictable factors. Improvement of Brandon and Aldridge, how well Oden fits in and contributes and how quickly. Gelling of entire team with additions of Bayless and Rudy. Plus all the usual factors that affect everyone like health and injury. Looking at a schedule and the opponents can be daunting, but I’d hope The Blazers approach every single game as a game they feel they can win. I think you grab a schedule this early and start penciling in wins and losses and you are in danger of missing the forest for the trees. Again maybe that’s just me, but I like looking at each game as it approaches. I’ve also found that each season usually becomes like a living thing as it unfolds. All the forecasting in the world probably won’t reveal what actually does happen. We are going to amazingly look great and win games almost everyone thinks we will lose as well as we probably will have some games we should win and we drop a clunker. Such is the nature of a talented young team still on the rise. So for me, I just look at a schedule as the thing that tells me who I hope we beat on what day.

Originally I guessed Oden, Rudy, Bayless would be good for an additional 9 wins. Now I’m not so sure after going through this schedule, as posted in prezofdeath’s schedule prediction. See my “Good Case” Google Doc here. 44 – 38.

Agreed that it’s a crapshoot because you wish we could win certain games when you know it can go either way, and we are still months away from even knowing opening day rosters.

i would like to see this template laid over the elite 8, 2 tired 2 do it myself right no, maybee l8r

It’s tough up front. We have a team that can do well in the face of adversity. It builds character. They’ve been here and while it’s tough, I think they can do it. It then starts to ease up and lets us gain momentum.

Additionally, good teams are good to play at the beginning of the year because they shake off rust and they realize it’s a marathon, not a sprint. We won’t realize that and we’ll play hard. When exhaustion is kicking in at the end of the season, we’ll be playing easier teams.

It’s harsh, but I can live with this schedule. the blazers will either rise together or fade off into the night and I think the character of this team is that they’ll rise to the challenge.

Switching from the 31st to the 1st is no different for the Blazers than going from the 12th to the 13th.
Heck, it’s LESS of a change, really.

The biggest switches in the nature of the sked occur mid-month, with the biggest one being in December;
after that murderous stretch of October 28 through December 12 (25 games in 46 days, 9 home, 16 away,
7 back-to-backs with travel, but no travel day) ending with the home end of a road/home back-to-back,
they have two home games in the next 10 days to kick off a stretch of 9 out of 11 at home in 29 days.

So to finish that rough first month and a half, on the night of December 12,
the buzzer sounds for the end of the Warriors game, they trudge down the tunnel to their home locker room,
and they stay home (playing only TWO GAMES!) until the 22nd, when they do a one-off in Denver.
They don’t see another road trip until a month later, on January 12 (they do have one other road one-off,
at the L[xxx]rs on January 4, with a travel day before it and two travel days after).

Then, on the twelfth, they slip into a cycle of road-trip/home-stand that lasts all season long.

The twelfth of the month is generally a big deal, breakwise.
There are those two huge changes on December 12 and January 12,
and then February 12 is the last game before the all-star break.
And in March, the 13th is the end of 6-of-7-at-home; after that is a road trip that is
their only one after that mad start to have a) five games, and b) travel east of Memphis.

And, of course, the 15th is the end of the season.

So if you wanna break it down into months, do it mid-month to mid-month.
Much more meaningful that way.

If we survive the first eight weeks, the rest will feel easy (well, apart from when it really counts in April maybe).

since I’m a Directv subscriber and they’re obviously too stupid to get a deal done with comcast, that I’ll probably be screwed out of yet another year of watching the games. I just hope my neighbor is nice enough to leave his blinds open so i can peek in while he watches the games just like last year!

GO BLAZERS!

the blazers wallpaper schedule?

We visit the Texas-area teams (including Memphis, OKC and the Hairnets) in road trips,
but the rest of the Western conference? No real “road trips” to speak of. Not ONE!

Consider:

- October 28 stand-alone at the L[xxx]rs.
- November Phoenix/Utah pair (four days apart, on the first and fifth).
- Odd Golden State game: At the end of a four-game gulf-area/Minny road trip,
but with two days off before the Worriers game. Is it part of that trip? Maybe.
- Sac/Phoenix pair (no travel day), with only a single home game after the Worriers road game and this pair.
Is the Pyrite State game part of THIS, as a 3-of-4-in-5-days “road trip”? Again, maybe.
- December 11 standalone at Utah.
- December 22 standalone at Denver, as part of a home-and-away back-to-back.
BUT! – Denver is the opponent for BOTH games, so it’s THEIR H&A B2B, too.
- January 4 standalone at the L[xxx]rs. Travel day before, TWO travel days after.
- January 26 standalone at the Paper Clips.
- February 12 standalone at Pyrite State.
- March 5 standalone at Denver.
- April 11 standalone against the Paper Clips.

Weird, huh? No three-or-more games in a row anywhere west of the Rockies.
Mostly one-offs, plus a couple of pairs and that one Worriers game; how THAT relates to
the four road games before it and the Sac/PHX pair soon after, is the only real aberration to this rule.
Six road games in Los Angeles and Denver = six one-game flybys.

Interesting.

Please don’t tell me you Blazers fans think you’re getting 50 wins this year? Bring the Crazy Pills to True Bue Jazz and we’ll show you what 72 wins looks like!

This took longer to compile than I anticipated…

The “Elite” Teams’ records through November last year are as follows:

Boston 13-2, 7 road games, 1-1 against “Elite” teams
Detroit 9-5, 8 road games, 1-2 against “Elite” teams
Orlando 14-4, 11 road games, 2-4 against “Elite” teams
L@kers 9-7, 7 road games, 4-5 against “Elite” teams
New Orleans 11-6, 10 road games, 1-3 against “Elite” teams
San Antonio 14-3, 8 road games, 4-1 against “Elite” teams
Houston 9-8, 10 road games, 4-3 against “Elite” teams
Phoenix 12-4, 8 road games, 3-2 against “Elite” teams
Utah 12-5, 9 road games, 3-2 against “Elite” teams

Our schedule through November has 11 of 18 games on the road, and 10 of the 18 games against “Elite” teams, and only 3 (!) of those 10 are at home. Of the “Elite” teams, only the L@kers and Houston “stumbled” out of the gate a bit last year, but those two teams did play the most “Elite” teams.

My point of this was to find which “Elite” teams started slow last year so that I could… you know, justify us stealing a win or two here and there from teams still sleeping. My analysis proved otherwise. We’re in trouble. The Blazers will be fortunate to be 7-11 after November. Reaching 50 will require strong desire and some serious regrouping.

By the way, Dave, your Elite Eight actually has nine teams.

In our first first 14 games, we have only 4 homes games.
We’re also on nationwide TV 4 times in that stretch.

And three of those four TV games are home games.

We may rarely be at home before November 23, but when we are, THAT’S when we get the national TV.
Of our 10 road games, they’re televising only our season debut at the L[xxx]rs,
but of our few home games, only the Minnesota game is locals-only.

Oddness.
Shine a spotlight on the Rose Garden this fall.

It’s the fans of other teams that should be going through their schedules and penciling-in losses whenever their teams play the Blazers.

Quality Pie, thank you very much for replacing your avatar. It was giving me nightmares.

I’m going to buy a corvette, get a divorce, and ask out BlazerFan3.0. I’ll want the latest model corvette and BlazerFan.

... may be just what the doctor ordered.

I want to see this team tested early. I can see them coming together that much faster under the pressure of a tough early schedule. 15 wins minimum by the end of December.