But if we have to narrow it down to only 8 I would go with:

PG:Blake/Roy
SG:Roy/Rudy
SF:Roy/Outlaw
PF:Aldridge/Frye
C:Oden/Przybilla

I think it is a good idea to keep 4 bigs in the rotation since they pick up fouls easily. Frye showed at the end of last year that he can be a very good player, and Przybilla’s lack of offense shouldn’t be a huge problem given how much firepower we have in the rest of the rotation. It’s hard to cut Webster out of the rotation when he is improving at a good pace and seems to fit well with the other starters, but I just don’t think he is as good as Outlaw or Rudy right now. If Bayless plays well he could end up displacing Blake, although not having a real PG in the rotation could cause some problems, especially when Roy is out.

Coach McMillan will experiment a lot with lineups during the season. In March/April he will narrow to an 8-man rotation. My guess is:

Front court: Oden, Aldridge, Frye
Wing: Webster
Back Court: Roy, Fernandez, and B, where B = Bayless or Blake
Utility: Outlaw or a player to be acquired later

I will swim upstream and predict that Nate picks Frye over Pryzbilla due to Frye being a better all around contributor statistically. Roy was effective at small forward last season and will play there more as Rudy earns playing time at the 2. Greg + LaMarcus + Brandon + Rudy will be devastating.

There seem to be two wild cards.

We don’t know how quickly Bayless will earn playing time, and we don’t know whether anyone but Blake on this team is capable of playing point. Bayless is so competitive that you expect, with his talent, he will find a way to eclipse his competition, but he has sooooo far to go to replace Blake.

Outlaw is a fan favorite, but, clutch play aside, overall he is not as effective as the other 3s and 4s, and we are acquiring a team full of clutch players. Given that Outlaw’s trade value is high, he seems to be the most plausible target as the first player shipped out to bring in someone new before the trading deadline. But if KP cannot find a way to significantly upgrade without breaking up the rest of the core, expect Travis to remain a Blazer through next season.

These predictions are governed by the usual terms, conditions, qualifiers, and disclaimers. Your real mileage may vary.

It may be by the end of this season, it come next year or the year after. But it won’t happen this year unless our rookies are truly phenomenal and we make a trade by the deadline. Why do I say this? Because eventually that 8-man won’t include Blake. It will be Bayless, Roy, Rudy, Martell, Trout, Frye, Lma and Oden. If a trade is needed one of these guys will go, most likely Martell Trout or Frye. Blake will remain part of the rotation until Bayless shows he can take over PG duties. Both Blake and Pryz will not be rotation players but role players who will step up when called or fill voids in the event of injury. BUt it will take at least one year and quite probably two until the ley players are identified. Until then Trout Martell Bayless, Rudy, Frye, Ike, Batum and Sergio will just be trying to cement their way onto the core of the team or take a reserve role or be traded.

Like many, I suspect that the rotation won’t gel until the end of the season. Aside from the fact that we are bringing in 3 rookies, is the fact that the SF position is still unsettled, and until it is, we won’t know if we keep what we have, or trade one or more players – and that likely won’t happen until next spring or even the summer. Further, our experience with rookies, particularly someone as young as Bayless, is that it could take a year or more for him to settle in, whereas Rudy, given that he has 4 more years of experience, and Mac’s comment that he’ll be getting a lot of playing time, may be easier to peg.

Having said this, the first condition of an 8 man rotation is typically that you have five starters, and then three backups who can play two positions. Further, the starters will also often be able to rotate into a second position.

When I look at it this way, what I see is that both Frye and Aldridge, our two designated PF’s can, if necessary provide some serviceable minutes at Center. Oden and Pryz, however, would seem to be stuck pretty much in the Center.

At SF, we have the thoughts that Webster can also provide some minutes at SG, and that Outlaw can provide some minutes at PF.

At guard, we have Roy who we already know can provide minutes at both SG and PG. And yesterday, Mac commented that he might rotate Roy over to SF at times when Rudy is on the floor (implying the small ball some of you have talked about).

Rudy appears to be a classic SG, but with his nice passing skills, may be serviceable at times to run the point in the 1/2 court. And it is hoped that Bayless, more of a combo right now, can also eventually provide time at either guard position. It’s a maybe as to whether or not Rudy could also shift to SF in a small ball format, but it’s certain that Bayless could not.

Blake, on the other hand, appears to be more of a PG, not an SG or SF.

Purely on this basis (and assuming everyone mentioned continues to improve this year) , then my rotation would likely be Oden, Frye and Aldridge in the front court, Webster and Outlaw, and then Roy, Fernandez and Bayless.

This does not mean I don’t like Blake or Pryz, nor that Batum may not eventually be a player we can use. It would certainly be a luxury to keep Blake or Pryz, because they’re excellent insurance – and solid players. And Batum can be kept for the next 3-4 years or so simply because he has a low 1st round rookie contract and he won’t cost a lot.