That two players in the same draft class both won rookie of the year?

Starter opening night, bench for the remainder of the first half of the season (with Joel starting), starting post All-Star break (provided he remains injury-free). The chemistry of the first unit is too strong to mess with until G.O. has some serious practice time under his belt.

I’m not so bullish on our rebounding increase with Oden. Przybilla was a beast on the boards last year. Our biggest increase in rebounding will simply be the increase in the amount of time that Oden and/or Przybilla are on the floor. Ultimately though, improving our rebounding is up to LMA/Trout/etc.

What I’m most looking forward to is having rebounding/defense AND offense in the middle… even if not so much this year.

Albeit that GO hadn’t gone through surgery yet, but he did play against fellow C’s that were of his own size and strength…most notably, DeSagana Diop in the game against Dallas. DD isn’t exactly a dominant center in the league but I see him as a poor man’s Pryz. Greg went 6-11 for 13 points with 4 blocks (9 fouls). Offensively, I don’t see how Greg isn’t going to dominate the blocks.

But going one-on-one against a guy his size could take a while to master.

There are very few NBA centers that are his size. He has an inch and twenty pounds on Dwight Howard, the best up and coming center in the league.

I personally think that Greg’s biggest adjustment is going to come on the defensive end; learning how to adjust to NBA officiating. Other posters have mentioned it before that foul trouble is going to be Greg’s limiting factor early on and I tend to agree. With his physical size and athleticism, even with the injury, I think we are going to see a dynamic low-post scoring option as long as he can stay in the game.

My prediction is 14pts/8rbs/1.5blks.

Sixth paragraph, second sentence. Clarify please?

“There shouldn’t be doubt in anyone’s mind that if he stays healthy Greg Oden will be a dominant force in this league. In fact dominant may not do it. However we’ll probably see something less than dominance from him this season.”

I liked that discussion. Would be a great way to awe the opposition and get rotation all over the sports news. Most people said “not with today’s hoops, too soft, too strong”. Yeah, not like “breaking the glass”. But I could see GOd pulling one down, like Shaq did in his heyday. I think fans in the Rose Garden would love to endure the long interruption while waiting for a new installation.

Regarding the story, Dave summed up my feelings perfectly. Oden will be really good, but he will need time. He is like to have foul trouble in a number of games limiting his production while he learns when to attack / block and when to stand aside. He might have some completely off nights, and that’s before any returning troubles with his knee. He will have great nights, especially later in the season. But over the whole season, 11+ points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 assist and 1.5 blocks per night seems about right.

is that it may mean another year of knaves and fools dismissing him as “just another overrated, over-hyped seven-footer.”

Patience… Must have more patience…

A few weeks a go when the minor controversy was released in the wake of less than 100% comments made by Oden in regards to his knee I was not suprised. We all want Greg to say he feels 100% and is 100% ready to go but I agree with the idea that in many ways this season is going to be a trial run and a recovery season for Oden. He’s had micro-fracture and he’s been mostly basketball inactive for a whole year. I’m not putting a ceiling on anything Greg can accomplish but I do think this is going to be a season of working recovery. That’s no knock on Greg, I’m still drooling over the chance to watch this guy emerge, I just don’t think we are going to see the best of Greg Oden this season. Like Dave, I’m basing this on almost everyones recovery from micro, it seems like it takes a year or more. The Blazers have been cautious and conservative in slowly bringing Oden back but I do think the total process is going to take a playing season as well. I don’t care that Oden says his knee is 80-90-100% or anything inbetween, the total return of Oden is going to take a season. I’m looking forward to his rookie year because it’s still going to be great. Of course the skys the limit with a talent like Oden but we are at take-off and have not reached cruising altitude yet.

Unstoppable.

Too big, too powerful, too quick.

10 pts. 10 rebs. 1.5 blks. a very successful rookie season. I’d be more excited about the 10 rebs though. I’m sick of getting our butts handed to us on the glass.

and just KNEW you analyzed Nic. Batum. LOL Dave, this is a great post. YOu are cauciously optomistic and I think you are under valueing Oden. However, I have been labeled a Homer so I suppose my opinion is not valid. I think that he is going to average at least 10 points though.

Sophia

Dave says that Oden will practically get any minutes he is fit to play. Sounds good to me. So let’s say he plays almost 30 to get a round number. Last year Joel averaged 23.5, and I assume he will get almost all remaining minutes on the 5 spot when he is healthy (he stated again in the Courtside interview that his main goal this season is to finally play all games), with the tiny rest going to LMA, Frye, sometimes Raef. So as long as both are healthy he would play 15 minutes, about half as long as Greg. How much would losing close to 9 minutes influence his numbers? How does averaging 3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1 block sound?

I think most of the universe would agree that Oden is the better player/prospect/option. Both were #1 picks (Bogut in 2005). But in his last season, Bogut averaged around 15 and 10 on 51% shooting. On a Bucks team with no other viable big man (Dan Gadzuric is only good against the Blazers), Michael Redd and hoisting and Mo Williams dribbling, those seem like decent numbers. Physically alone Oden should be much more imposing than Andrew Bogut. His team and back-up are way better than Bogut’s, but it’s impossible to tell how this will affect Oden statistically, since his teammates will get him the ball in great scoring position and lighten his load inside through excellent perimeter play OR not rely on his help offensively at all in which case at least his point production would go down but rebounds up.
Greg will get at least 12ppg since he can shoot free-throws at a decent rate. Because of his size and supposed athleticism, teams will be grabbing and pulling him a lot. If he can hit 6 of 8 free throws a game and 3 2-pt FGs that’s already 12ppg. If he decides to get nasty some games and be aggressive on the offensive boards, his point production could go way up. Also if Bogut is playing D on him, his point production will go up. A major misconception is that you have to hit 3-pointers in order to score a lot. A major example is Amare Stoudamire (who also had micro-fracture). He has ventured to shoot a 3 pointer on occasion but scores a lot of points on dunks and 2-pt shots. The Blazers probably won’t get up and down as much as Phoenix next year, but at times they may, especially if Oden is feeling up to it.

as Dave recently discussed the leeway Shaq and his gargantuan forearms used to get if “the league” will go out of its way to help “establish” Oden 1.0 as the newest member of the dominant-big-man… you know what I’m sayin’?

Essentially, will the ref’s choke on their whistles as Oden 1.0 bowls his way through the lane the same way they used to for Shaq? Will legions of other teams’ fans hate the Blazers and Oden because of all of the non-calls? I have to say I wouldn’t care one bit. I would be perfectly fine with it if that was OUR guy for once.

Let’s see if that generates a little more traffic.

A few people have talked about Oden having a great scoring average next season. (For what it’s worth, Gavin Dawson agrees with you and we have dinner riding on it…though with his undoubtedly inflated salary as the new morning host I think I should make him pay for dinner no matter what, eh?) The problem I see with that has nothing to do with Oden’s skills or potential. It’s not even with the offense in general, as I believe last year’s offense left cracks for the center to score. The reasons I don’t imagine him scoring near 20 in his first season are threefold:

1. Lamarcus and Brandon still come first on the scoring list because of tenure if nothing else. Plus you have Travis and now Jerryd and Rudy who are all at their best when they are scoring. Greg’s greatest strength is defense and he can make a huge impact on the game without needing all of those shots.

2. Oden is a huge name. He’s also an untested rookie. He’s not going to be able to hide out there or sneak up on people. As soon as he starts showing ANY proclivity to score 20 opponents are going to collapse on him like there’s no tomorrow. Granted that may lead to him passing to other folks who might score 20, but they’re going to see if Greg can make those kind of decisions and plays.

3. In some ways this is just a matter of accounting. In order to average 17-20 in a season you need to score big throughout. Chances are Oden is going to have off-games or lower-minute games early on as he’s adjusting to the league and to playing through his recovery. If he spends one month scoring 12 per game (certainly possible if the Blazers start him slow at first) then he’d have to have a month scoring 22 a game later on in order to average even 17. (Plus, of course, scoring 17 a game in all of those months in between.) If you want to make it 20 ppg then a 12 ppg month would need to be followed by a 28 ppg month. Given the two factors I just mentioned those months are going to be difficult. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him have runs of 17 ppg for a month or maybe even 20 ppg for a week or two. But unless he comes out of the gate just tearing it up it’s going to be really hard to get a padded scoring average.

—Dave

who would be perfectly content with 10 and 8 from greg this year?