Would Spain have won the Gold if Rudy/Kobe foul wasn't called?
by Kelsoballa on Aug 27, 2008 8:26 PM PDT
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Rudy would have taken the big three with 1:30 left, not Jiminez.
Rudy was bringin it in the fourth....so... what do you think?
I'd like to say hi to all my friends in the 503 and the 541 and of course the 360.
I am lookin to move to P-Town here in the next month or so, but I will not be changing my name so don't worry.
-kelsoballa
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I doubt it
USA still would have had an 8 point lead with ~5 minutes left, and you can’t just replace Jiminez shooting a 3 with Rudy shooting a 3— the US may have played the defense differently, etc.
The only way I figure it is this… With an 8 pt deficit with that amount of time remaining, even with Rudy, I’d say Spain had a ~10-15% chance to win. So it’s possible they would have won, but IMO unlikely.
Boomshakalaka
agreed
Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624
Yes or no?
Come on… So you are suggesting that Rudy could have single handedly taken that game away from Team Kobe? I have my doubts, but I do think that the foul was weak.
I have to admit...
The momentum that the Spanish team had was being continually fueled by Rudy’s phenomenal performance. That crazy foul call not only took Rudy out of the game, but also put the brakes on a lot of that momentum…. not all of it… but a lot. Gasol and Navarro were playing terrific ball as well.
I’d say Spain had at least a 50% chance of winning that game had Rudy not been taken out of the game.
wow
you are starting a 5 minute game with Spain down 8 with the ball and you are giving them at least a 50% chance!?! The momentum was shot anyway by Kobe hitting the 3. If it was a 5 minute game with the teams tied, I still wouldn’t quite give Spain a 50% chance (because I consider the US a better team, albeit not by a huge amount).
Who’s to say Rudy doesn’t pick up a 5th foul on the next play?
BTW, Rudy did foul Kobe… not saying it had to be called- could easily have been let go (as many potential traveling calls were let go, as was Marc’s blatant shove of Bosh that led to a wide open jumper by Pau)- but he clearly got him on the hand as Kobe followed through.
Boomshakalaka
Who's to say...?
If you’re just going to throw a “Who’s to say…” at me, then who’s to say Marc Gasol doesn’t come in the game and hit 4 in row from behind the arc to win the game for Spain? Had that foul not been called… Who’s to say anything couldn’t have happened! :-) Maybe David Beckham would have even checked into the game…?
You're not really addressing the point of his post
for 35 minutes the US had been 8 points better than Spain and were 6 points better than them over the last 5 minutes or however long it had been before the foul since Spain had pulled within two. As much as Rudy was lighting it up, it’s absurd to think that having him in there alone for that last 5 minutes all of a sudden gives Spain better than a 50% chance to win the game.
That play was way more about Kobe making a huge momentum changing 3 from deep than Rudy fouling out, anyways. That was an absolute dagger, being from around NBA range.
I know as blazer fans we all want to think that Rudy alone could have made up an 8 point difference in 5 minutes for Spain, but let’s be realistic. At that point, with Rudy fouled out, they had maybe a 5% chance at best to win the game. If they let it go, maybe that jumps up to 15, but you really must have been watching a different game to put it anywhere near 50. I mean, we’re still talking about a US team stacked with the most clutch guys in the game. CP was pretty unguardable, and Lebron and Kobe are Lebron and Kobe, as much as I hate to admit it in the latter’s case. Like one guy on Spain is really going to outplay both of those guys in crunchtime of a gold medal game.
Jk is right anways about picking up the 5th foul later. Rudy was guarding the “best” player on team USA who was always going to try and take over in crunch time. It’s pretty ridiculous to think that any player not accustomed to NBA athleticism could go 5 minutes trying playing tough defense on a determined Kobe Bryant without picking up a single foul. Either he D’s him up and picks up a contact foul somewhere, or he’ll have to constantly lay off him, and it ends up as a lay up drill. Given that Rudy never looked like he was going to lay off him, it was really only a matter of time before the 5th foul came.
yeah
you are right that I shouldn’t have thrown a “who’s to say…” in there. I still don’t see anyway you can go anywhere near 50/50 odds for Spain starting a 5 minute game down by 8 points against that good of an opponent. 15 percent I could see, but I’d be hard pressed to go any higher than that.
Boomshakalaka
I'm gonna go ahead...
and stand by my 50%, but thanks for your feedback. I respect your opinions, but really… who is to say? ;-) not even god knows what would have been. now… does anybody want to debate the theology behind that statement?
I've given it some thought...
and I can’t help but be slightly convinced by your arguments. I was definitely not considering the immense talent that Kobe possess. As a result, I can only now give Spain a 49% chance of winning the game.
Agree that Spain doesn't win the game either way...
But totally disagree on the foul call. Check the rewind on www.nbcolympics.com, at 4:18:30, Kobe clearly hits Rudy on the hand when he is attempting a 3, but there is no call. If the you think that the Rudy tapping Kobe play was a foul, than Kobe should have never even been in the game to hit that 4 point shot, as he should have fouled out a few plays before when he closed out on Rudy and clearly hit his hand on the follow through(pressing pause and play to create a lame slow motion will really clear it up). The plays are practically identical, but, again, the difference is one player was Rudy Fernandez(foul called), the other was Kobe Bryant(no foul called). That is f-ing garbage in my book. Either Kobe should have fouled out, or Rudy shouldn’t have. Either way it likely results in a USA win, but the call was atrocious at best, check the tape….
RUDY > MJ
That foul on Rudy was legit
He hit kobe on the hand, so it was a good call, lets get that out of the way. Now on to a more important question from truehoop.
Would Spain have won if the FIBA officials had called traveling on the US players during the game? I would have to guess that there were at least 8-10 traveling violations per FIBA rules by the US players. Would those 8-10 turnovers, (including some on break away highlight dunks) have given Spain enough to win the game? That is the real question.
indeed
this is a more significant question.
Its a difficult one. We have to consider the possibility that the US players would have adjusted after the first 2-3 were called (it is always the responsibility of the players to adjust to how the refs are calling a particular game. We also have to consider the possibility that there were a couple uncalled travels by Spain (albeit certainly not as many as on the US).
I believe that if the refs had consistently been calling the game tightly, the US would have adjusted in time to build a similar 8-10 point lead late in the game. Its my belief the US still would have won. However, there is absolutely no way of knowing for sure and I absolutely acknowledge the possibility that Spain would have won. I’m hard pressed to even put a percentage on this one, because it could have been an entirely different game.
Boomshakalaka
Check the rewind at 4:18:30
Kobe hits Rudy on his follow through and it is every bit as clear as the play where Rudy hits Kobe. Kobe should have fouled out and not even had the chance to hit that 4 point play. Tape don’t lie…
RUDY > MJ
Here's why the poll doesn't work
BECAUSE THERE WERE A MILLION CRAPPY CALLS AGAINST THE US.
Whatevs though, we won, and now we can put it out of our minds.
Yes they would have had a good chance of it. They would never call that foul on Lebron and Kobe.
Rudy is a big time player, he would have saved Spain.
This was not the NBA
Lebron and Kobe are just another player to most of these refs. You could see it many times where Kobe, wade, Lebron, etc… would drive to the hole, not get the call, and stare at the ref. These Ref’s were just over their head, they were not the classic NBA star system refs.
No
Despite my heart asks me yes I must admit the most credible answer is no. Reason? Spain was always behind USA and whenever Spain was close there was a quick answer from Usa players (specially Bryant and Wade). In Spain we say they play like the dog and cat. Whenever Spain fought back Usa answered. It was all game like that even with Rudy in court.
olympics foul calls
Griping about a bad call in Olympic basketball is like griping about Water Polo being in a pool.
There are many things that could have changed the outcome.
Sure that could have gone different and Spain could have won the game, as well as many other calls.
That call was legit though. Most of time it might not have even been called, but that time it was.
Yes of course, until proven otherwise!
Come on sagebrush, people in attendance cannot enter the game, that includes David Beckam. Read the rules!!
3502068 seconds until first preseason game. Just dropping some knowledge on BE!
USA WON, PAST IS PAST, THAT´S ALL for me about this game´s score.
Regarding the future I think it would be interesting to debate about how should be resolved the “not calling traveling fouls” problem. It brings some interesting questions
:
1.- NBA players, and specially US players, have a disadvantage if referees
call travelling fouls as usual in FIBA. Do you want the best players seem stupid?. Do you want to decide a game because of this? OK, they could adapt but It would take them off concentration and spontaneity and the fact is that someone told the referees “do not call these fouls” and it means that adaptation is not that easy.
2.- FIBA players have a disadvantage if they watch that NBA players are not only the best but also are playing with different rules. They can also get nervous and lose concentration. I find funny that a Spanish speaker for TV, former player, joked during the game about this matter suggesting that he had not problem with the US players playing under the NBA rules if the three point line was placed “for them” (only for them) under the same rules.
The Midnight Rambler
Yeah, and I sent my answer. Check your spam folder, it seems I´m dangerous.
If you find nothing I´ll sent it again.
The Midnight Rambler
Tom already wanted to alert the homeland security department. Or did he?
Odenied: Asked whether he noticed Oden favoring his right knee, Frye dismissed it entirely. "He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors."
He did. Then I sent Tom´s curriculum vitae to them, including that he has been playing too much with the Microsoft Flight Simulator.
Tom says that he has been that time with his sister in law but we know the truth.
The Midnight Rambler
I didn't find it even in my spam folder...
if you wouldn’t mind sending it again… i’d appreciate it.
thanx
Ok. I can do it from home if you send me your email adress at alfredo at amlmart1.e.telefonica.net
The Midnight Rambler
You need to register amlmart1@gmail.com
Odenied: Asked whether he noticed Oden favoring his right knee, Frye dismissed it entirely. "He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors."
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