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Your '08-'09 Portland Trailblazers: A Breakdown

I’d venture a guess that most of you are as excited about our prospects in the upcoming NBA season as I am. With that in mind, I’d like to take a look at our team, one player at a time. I think there’s no better place to start off than with our All-Star…

 

Brandon Roy – The face of this franchise, Brandon Roy has been given the keys to this team, and is an unquestioned leader. Roy is coming off his first All-Star appearance, as well as arthroscopic surgery to repair his meniscus. Should Roy stay healthy this year, we should see, at worst, a repeat of last season’s numbers. Roy is the epitome of unselfish, often times deferring to his teammates more than he should. He, along with everyone else on this roster, will benefit from the return (or arrival, depending on how you look at it) of…

 

Greg Oden – Perhaps no rookie big man in the past five to ten years (outside of perhaps Yao Ming), will have the spotlight shone as heavily on them as it will on Oden. At seven feet tall, and most likely playing between 275-280 pounds, he will provide this team with an intimidating presence in the paint, something this team truly needs. He has the innate ability to keep his feet on the ground until the last possible minute, then sky to block a shot. Oden will be especially helpful on the offensive side of the ball. Last season, people would often cheat off of Joel Przybilla and double both Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, believing he couldn’t hurt them. There will be no such luck with Oden. His size, strength and athleticism will force teams to keep a body on him at all times, or face a constant barrage of alley-oops. Early on, Oden will need to adjust to the way NBA referees call the games, as well as the speed of the game. Should he be half of what some of us think he will be, I’d bet he’ll average no worse than a near double-double, with probably right around two blocks a game in his rookie campaign. This will definitely help his frontcourt teammate...

 

LaMarcus Aldridge – A classic face-up big man, this season, should have a lot more open looks at the basket. Along with Oden, he will help form one of the top inside-outside big men tandems in the NBA. While his rebounding numbers may drop slightly due to the big guy’s arrival, I expect his both his scoring and assists to go up, at least slightly. Should a double team come, Aldridge will record a lot more assists, including some of them to…

 

Martell Webster – Webster will most likely be our opening day starter at small forward to give the first unit a legitimate outside shooting threat. His defense should at least slightly improve from last season to this. Then again, everyone’s perimeter defense will look a little better when they have a monster like Oden backing them up. I’m willing to bet that Martell will be hoisting up between 3-4 three-pointers a game. His numbers may take a dip, as his minutes may be cut down due his new backup…

 

Travis Outlaw – Instant offense. That’s what comes to mind whenever I see Outlaw enter the game. He still needs to work on his ball handling, as well as his less-than-stellar on ball defense. Making the permanent move to small forward will force him to be a better ball-handler, and he will have to get much better at defending fellow threes. That being said, I can’t say that anyone from the second unit was more exciting to see enter the game than he was. Let’s not forget our own “Lieutenant Dan”…

 

Steve Blake – Perhaps no current TrailBlazer is more blue collar than this guy. He is the consummate professional, and is a proven three point shooter. While I don’t expect Blake to score much more than the eight points per game he did last year, he’s going to get a lot of open looks from three with our “Big Three” getting most of the attention. Blake will be our opening day starter, but might be looking at some good competition from…

 

Jerryd Bayless – Coming off an MVP performance from Bayless in the Vegas Summer League, some might expect Bayless to supplant Blake from his starting post, sooner rather than later. My main concern with Bayless being inserted into the starting line-up is the fact that there may not be enough shots to go around. He is similar to Brandon Roy in that he is best at making plays with the ball in his hands. I firmly expect Bayless to be at least an adequate role player for our team, along with fellow second unit player and new arrival…

 

Rudy Fernandez – Arguable Spain’s second best Olympic player behind Pau Gasol, Fernandez has shown he’s a true team player. I suspect he’ll provide some of the three point shooting off the bench that was lost when James Jones bolted town. He still takes too many chances on both sides of the floor, but has top flight athleticism and a willingness to put his body on the line for his team (taking charges, diving for loose balls, et cetera). Rudy should be an immediate rotation player, and, should Bayless struggle, may be playing with fellow countryman…

 

Sergio Rodriguez – Its possible nobody has seen as large a drop in their stock on this team than Sergio has. After his rookie season, there was a clamoring for him to replace Jarrett Jack in the starting lineup by some over-exuberant fans. Were he not playing for such a defensive minded coach, Rodriguez may already be our back-up point guard. He still needs to allow his screeners to get set (too many times Przybilla or Frye would be whistled for illegal picks through no wrong-doing of their own), as well as his decision making and defense. Should he get some playing time, he may well be threading the needle to the likes of…

 

Channing Frye – With the return of Oden, Frye will see a decrease in playing time, due in large part to the fact he saw a good amount of time at both power forward and center. Frye has not let that deter him, as he appears to be in the best shape of his professional career. Also adding a three point shot, Frye will still be a vital part of our “White Unit”, forming an inside-outside tandem of his own with former starter…

 

Joel Przybilla – Firmly entrenched as one of the leaders on this team, Przybilla adds another level of toughness and grit to this Blazers squad. Quite possibly the best back-up center in the league, Przybilla will still see a fair amount of playing time while Greg Oden adjusts to the speed and officiating of the NBA. His ability to rebound and alter shots, as well as setting bone-crushing screens will be a welcome sight for the playmakers of the “White Unit”. Should Przybilla or Oden have foul or injury troubles, we have another tough big man to take their place by the name of…

 

Ike Diogu – Another player whom injuries have plagued, Diogu is NOT a finesse player. Built like a Panzer, Diogu’s physicality reminds me of Utah backup PF Paul Millsap. While he may never be more than a role player in the NBA, Diogu will provide us with a physical presence at power forward that can bang with the stockier 4’s in the league. Should something catastrophic happen with our frontline, then we may witness an appearance by…

 

Raef LaFrentz – Injuries have robbed LaFrentz the last five years of his career. Before injuries caught up to him, LaFrentz was an excellent high post power forward with the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. While we can’t reasonable expect anything close from him, he has transformed his game and is willing to bang with other bigs and is still an effective rebounder and adequate shooter in short bursts. Another player who’ll likely not see the court much this season is…

 

Nicolas Batum – “Batman” will probably not see the court much, if at all, this season. He has the length and athleticism to be an excellent defender, and the speed to run the court, but he still needs to refine his shot and get stronger. Management believes that if Batum works hard, he will be a solid player for us in the long run. Unless we’re hit by the injury bug this year (let’s hope not), I believe Batum will see some time in the D-League to refine certain areas of his developing game.

 

 

Team Expectations:


I believe that the talent is there for this squad, as is currently assembled, to make the playoffs. Whether we do that will be largely contingent on how well our players work together, as well as the development of Oden, Aldridge, Webster, Fernandez and Bayless. We will definitely have one of the best second units in the league, which will afford us the ability to get out and run more on the fast break and take advantage of our depth. Injuries will always be a concern, but as long as our “Big Three” can steer clear of extended ailments, we will have the ability to compete against any team, any night. I think our record will improve over last year, as the addition of highly touted big man Greg Oden will make our team’s defense and rebounding infinitely better. Should everything come together quickly this year, we may approach 50 wins and a playoff berth. It had better come together fast though, as we open with 15 of our first 22 on the road, with only 9 of 22 coming against teams that missed the playoffs last season. If we can manage to stay near .500 through the first month-plus of the season, playoffs should be a reasonable goal. Either way, the future looks bright. It’s a great time to be a Blazers fan. Let’s enjoy it!

8 recs  |  Comment 17 comments

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+1

Lefty6283, i enjoy reading your posts….

by BroyTheTruth on Aug 21, 2008 10:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

agreed

you are bringing heat!

BRANDON ROY GET WELL SOON (SERIOUSLY DOG)

by Ben. on Aug 21, 2008 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Note, however:

Uncool to use the words “2008-09 Portland Trailblazers” and “breakdown” in the same sentence.

—Dave

by Dave on Aug 22, 2008 1:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree

The addition of Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless, and Rudy Fernandez to the 2008-2009 Portland Trailblazers will cause at least one opposing coach to suffer a mental breakdown.

The presence of both inside and outside threats, as well as the multi-level threat of Brandon Roy, on the 2008-2009 Portland Trailblazers will cause opponents to suffer many a defensive breakdown.

The 2008-2009 Portland Trailblazers have so much talent, and come at you in so many ways, both offensively and defensively, that there is no way to adequately breakdown their various capabilities.

I could go on….

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Aug 22, 2008 3:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True, Dave...

probably could have found a more appropriate word than “breakdown”. In hindsight, “expectations” would have been a more Blazer-friendly term! :)

by lefty6283 on Aug 22, 2008 7:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty deep roster actually

Assuming guys like TO Marty and Rudy live up to their potential this could quickly become one of the deepest teams in the league.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Aug 22, 2008 8:24 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Not deep at the SF position...

Outlaw and Webster better have consistent seasons this year.

When I say consistent seasons, I’m talking about consistent defense and consistent shooting. I didn’t enjoy seeing so many “off-nights” and “flashes of brilliance” during the 07-08 season.

--

by CaptainSexyJacob on Aug 22, 2008 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice parallel construction on the segues

Asked his specialty in the kitchen, Oden paused and said, "Hamburger Helper and tuna fish."

by MiledAnimal on Aug 22, 2008 9:16 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey nice work

but a very minor point – Raef is our best shot blocker per 36 minutes. He had several seasons of 2+ per game when healthy. I mention this only because the veteran can give pointers to Greg Oden (as can Joel). He will not likely (as you mention) get to play.

Also Ike has turnover problems and needs to solve them to get PT from Coach Nate. (This has remained consistent in his 3 years on a 36 min basis, all above 2.5). The four players for the Blazers last year with over 2 turnovers a game (36 min basis) are either gone – McRoberts, Green, and Jack or benched – Sergio.

The white unit is the place where we may blow by other teams allowing out starters to be fresher at playoff time.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on Aug 22, 2008 9:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

+1 More

Great post. I absolutely agree that Joel is the best backup center in the league. Not neccessarily because he is the most talented center coming off an NBA bench, but because of his team-first attitude and willingness to do whatever the team needs him to do. I also believe the same will be true, eventually, with Steve Blake.

this has been a message from: "The People's Alliance to Keep Comment Boards Sucka Free"

by bforsythe on Aug 22, 2008 10:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

"Diogu is NOT a finesse player"

Uh, that 81% career FT shooting looks pretty finesse to me.

by royroty on Aug 23, 2008 4:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Understand

I’m not trying to dis your review, I think it’s great. I just think there’s more to Diogu than meets the eye.

by royroty on Aug 23, 2008 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hey its your opinion

but the dude is a banger. just because he has free throw shooting touch doesn’t necessarily make him finesse

by lefty6283 on Aug 23, 2008 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well,

just by looking at him tells you most of what you need to know. The dude takes up some space!

by lethaldose on Aug 23, 2008 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice Post

Bayless’s coming into the summer league and validating KP’s judgement that he was the 4th best player in the draft – regardless of what every other team thought, followed by Rudy going mano a’ mano with the US all stars and validating KP’s earlier statement that Rudy would show the fans some things that very few NBA players can do, is causing us to perceive just how deep this team really is. You cannot give me the name of single backup center with Pryz’s stats, you’d be hard pressed to find a backup PF/Center like Frye in this league., and them, there’s Diogu. Mac calls him a classic PFof the old school. He’ll go inside and battle. And if fouled, he’ll make them. We can play finesse, and we can play power. What a group. I don’t even worry that much about Outlaw/Webster. After all, their combined production matches most teams from that spot. And, if needed, we can always make a change in the spring or next summer.

by Eben Calder on Aug 24, 2008 1:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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