Salary Cap Holds (with poll)

or even both of them, if the price is right. They won’t be extended for big bucks.

Webster might be extended for 3 years for around $5 million a year. That wouldn’t eat into the cap space too badly. It gives him three years to show he’s for real, and if he succeeds, he’ll get a big payday in three years.

Channing might go for similar money, as well.

If they are looking for 5 year contracts at $8-10 million a year, it won’t happen. If they are like Blake, happy with a salary that would set up most people for life, content to be a role player, but working hard to play that role better, they could make that case to KP now and probably get a contract. It partly depends on whether they want to be very, very rich and wear lots of championship rings, or very, very, very rich and go elsewhere.

Of the two, I think Channing is more likely to agree to the kind of contract that could see him extended. He might actually command more money on the open market than Martell would, kind of hard to say. Big men who can shoot and rebound are valuable, even if his interior defense needs a lot of work. But Channing really seems to like it in Portland, and I think everyone wants to be a teammate of Brandon Roy and Greg Oden.

first, they will all count at 300% of their 2008/09 salary, not 200% of their “upcoming salary” (whatever that is).

Secondly, there is the following conundrum:
1) If the Blazers don’t want to have their massive cap holds weighing them down to start next year’s free agency, then they have to extend at least two of the three prior to October 31. This could have either a positive or negative impact on their trade value during 2008-09, depending on the goals of the team on the other end.
2) Anyone who IS extended will likely become a BYC player, making them much more difficult to actually move in a trade deadline deal.

So, if you think you might want to trade some of these guys during the season, then to maximize your trading capabilities, you really don’t want to extend them now. However, not extending them now means you will have a big nasty cap hold to start next summer (unless you renounce their rights, making them unrestricted), which messes up your FA plans.

We are the team to go to in 2009. Usually the big free agents are signed first in the summer followed by lesser players. Is it possible that the Blazers delay that whole process because they have cap holds from some combination of these three players. In other words, we negotiate a deal with a marquee free agent, but can’t sign him yet becasue of cap holds, we then choose to waive our rights to one of these players to clear cap space, anf finally the trade is completed. If this is possible, everybody would be forced to wait until it comes to terms with its RFA, thereby making capspace available for an UFA.

Som my question is: are my two assumptions valid?
1) once we sign one of our own RFA, then the cap hold comes off our books for that player thereby clearing capspace.
2) We can choose to waive the rights to any of our RFA during the summer making them UFA and therby releasing the cap hold by that player.

If these options are possible, then we can negotiate with any free agent before our cap spcae is fully cleared with the restriction that a contract can not become officcial until one of those two options takes place.

might frye be able to play some minutes at the 3? The SF spot seems to me to be the hole. I really like web, but I just don’t see a role for him on this team unless he blows up this year. He just seems mediocre — offense is good if he’s on, but if not, the effort drops. Defense is serviceable, but not premier enough to counter his weak offense.

Frye is on my short list of favorite Blazers. I hope he sticks. I just wonder if KP isn’t eyeing the reserve 4 spot and thinking “we need someone totally different than LMA, not LMA-lite.” I that is going to determine Frye’s future here. He’s sure earning brownie points for staying in town and working out with Greg this year — what a team-first guy.

I also agree on Frye. A man who can give decent minutes at two positions and has accepted that he’s a role player, not a starter, can fit very well into the Blazers long term picture. It’s also the reason I think that Outlaw may have more value right now – than Webster. He’s already signed, and again, can give some decent minutes at both SF and PF. Further, he doesn’t seem to have the “starters” ego that would prevent him from accepting a long term role as a backup. I truly think that this is Websters year to show that he belongs. If not, then following KP’s logic with Jack, he’ll likely trade Webster who the league will accept as a solid backup at SF, for a starter, and make it work with cap space. This will improve the team – but it doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll be looking for a premium SF, rather, it may be one who like Bayless, improves the position and fits the system.

Ike is a little bit of a mystery. Some analysts believe he’s the sleeper of the Bayless transaction. I suspect he’ll be gone, but that depends on what he’s willing to accept in terms of his role and salary. He does bring some things that Mac might like to the table, and who knows, that we might need. An old school power forward might have a fit. However, we do know that Frye seems to play healthy, whereas Diogu has had an injury bug.

We’ll simply have to watch all three for the first 40 games or so. By mid season, I suspect that Mac and KP will have made their decisions, and they could act at any time after that – either by resigning or trading the players in question.

And, they could surprise all of us. The combined stats of Outlaw/Webster at SF are as good as most teams have at that position. If the two divide the minutes and give us some versatiltiy, and if adding a “starter” won’t likely improve the stats that much, we might just keep them both at $5 to $6 mill a year, rather than pay a starter $10 mill or so, while reducing Outlaws minutes from a split of 24, to 12 – 15 if the starter plays 32 or more. You never know. It all comes down to Oden and the guards. We can now afford role players at SF – if those positions work they way we hope.