48 minutes in a basketball game x 5 players = 240 minutes of game time for our roster next season assuming of course the games end in regulation.  Based on our return players' numbers from last year and the predicted amount of necessary minutes for our stellar rooks, let's break down the minutes and see who's going to get shafted nest season.  For the sake of simple accounting, I'll be rounding all predicted minutes.

First, let's start with the big three:

Brandon Roy -  37 MINUTES (assuming all goes well tomorrow morning!)- Last year Mr. (future) Wheaties Box averaged 37.7 minutes per game.  With the arrival of Bayless and Rudy you may reasonably expect to see a slight dip in minutes so he can rest while those young guns run it.  It's tough to know how necessary it will be to have him play major minutes for the simple purpose of steadying the ship.  My prediction is that he'll see a similar amount of court time this year and less next year when Bayless and Rudy have a more polished role with one year of experience under their belt.  

Greg Oden - 28 MINUTES - I would rather see Oden play either 48 minutes or 15.  I want him to want to play as much as possible immediately to dispel any notion that he's not healthy or injury prone.  I want to see him dunk on many faces and have just as many posters hanging in my living room.  However I also want him to be playing with us when it really matters- like the NBA finals for the next 15 years.  Better to play it safe and keep him under 30 minutes, especially since Pryzbilla really is as formidable a backup center as there is in the league.  

LaMarcus Aldridge - 35 MINUTES - Last season TheMancus averaged 34.9 minutes and I don't expect that to change much.  I'd like to see him out there as much as possible, but just as with Oden there's really no need to burn him out unnecessarily.  If Channing Frye can play remotely close to how he was balling at the end of last season, then he deserves at least 20 minutes himself.  Not sure if Ike Diogu is worthy of minutes yet, but if so then that should cut into LMA's time as well. Unlike last year however, it appears the Blazers want Travis to stay at the 3, so that's a few more minutes at the 4 possibly for Ike (if we're winning by a good margin).  

So...37 + 28 + 35 = 100 MINUTES for our Big 3 alone, which leaves 140 minutes left for the likes of Rudy, Martell, Travis, Channing, Bayless, Blake, Pryzbilla, Sergio, Batum, Diogu, and LaFrentz.  I like our whole team and wish everyone could get in, but for the sake of staying under the 240 minute threshold, NO MINUTES of mine will be awarded to RLEC, Ike, or Batum.  With that said, here's the breakdown of minutes for the rest: 

Travis Outlaw - 24 MINUTES - Not sure if Travis or Martell will see more minutes, but last year Travis got 26.6 while Marty got 28.4.  With Rudy demanding minutes in a possible 3-guard rotation and Travis moving solely to the 3, one would expect both Travis and Martell to lose at least a lil' playing time.  My solution is to split the 48 SF minutes equally between Travis and Martell, since by position at least there's really no one else deserving of those minutes although undoubtedly Batum will garner a few here and there. 

Martell Webster - 24 MINUTES - See above. I love Webster and he deserves a bump up to 30 a game since he's our only 3 point specialist (now that JJ is gone) and can arguably defend the perimeter better than Outlaw at this point.  But there's just not enough minutes to let him see many in the 2nd half.  I think he'll start, but Outlaw will get all the minutes in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Hopefully Marty can get a couple more 26-pt 3rd quarters next season since that'll be his only opportunity to do so.  

Rudy Fernandez - 20 MINUTES - I pessimistically foresee Rudy getting shafted on minutes this season.  Hopefully he plays well enough to get all of Jack's minutes (over 20) from last season, but it'll be tough with our line-up.  Some promises were made in order to get him to come here and it'd be nice to see him happy, but as long as Rudy's entire extended family have access to a SPAM credit card, he just might have to live with it.  I suspect he may end up more in the 14-18 minute range, but I hope he's good enough that Nate can't help but give him at least 20.    

Channing Frye - 20 MINUTES - It appears Frye could be poised to have a breakout or bust type of season.  His work ethic, attitude and general abilities cannot be questioned.  He's been putting in hard work in the weight room and everyone appears to love the guy.  He's developing a 3 point shot too apparently.  All this would indicate that he's deserving of 24 minutes a game as well, but that just doesn't seem realistic. Last season he got 17.2 minutes of action and I think he'll see a little more since Travis will supposedly no longer be playing the 4 and he may see some action at Center if we want to play really up-tempo.  Frye's challenge will be to remain effective and hustle with the limited minutes he gets.  As a jump-shooter, it's easier to hit shots when you're warm and have been running around for awhile--a luxury Frye won't really have playing behind TheMancus.  Furthermore, this is a contract year for Frye, so if we want to keep him for awhile it might actually be in our favor to keep his stats down and hide his true value so he doesn't receive any uber-offers from other clubs and we can keep him on the cheap.  Signing him to a multi-year contract like Outlaw's (4M per season) would be a great value, and he'd probably take it if he indeed loves it here as much as he says he does.

Joel Pryzbilla - 16 MINUTES - As the only true Center on our squad last year, Joel still only played half the game.  His 23.6 minutes from last season are sure to go down with the arrival of the Great One.  If my prediction comes true and Oden sees 28 minutes of play, that leaves 20 available at the Center position.  It'd be nice to have the overwhelming presence of one of our bigs on the court at all times, however foul problems and certain game scenarios will dictate a smaller line-up with Frye at the 5.  Thus the 16 minutes.

So...at this juncture we have 100 (big 3) + 24 + 24+ 20 + 20 + 16 = 204 MINUTES.  By that count, there's only 36 minutes left and we've yet to discuss the PG position.  I'm okay with allotting less than a full game's worth of minutes to the PG position because I have a desire to see Brandon and Rudy play the 1-2 for about 12 minutes a game.  That way Rudy can get the bulk of his minutes developing alongside Brandon instead of as his brief replacement.  

Steve Blake - 16 MINUTES - Blake will likely start the season and will probably play the point when Oden is in the game, that way we can run our slow show with Blake, Roy, Webster, Aldridge and Oden.  My initial instinct was to give Blake more minutes than Bayless, but Blake will have Jerryd biting his ankles all season long.  Sergio could also be deserving of more minutes if he and Rudy click together.  I don't see Blake as the type to have a problem with limited minutes, but 16 per game is a far cry from his 29.9 last season. 

Jerryd Bayless - 16 MINUTES - The summer league MVP will be a great player and could take over the starting role by season's end.  He can score, this much we know. If he can pass and lead an effective fast break, his value will soar sky-high.  I see him playing a lot of minutes with the 2nd unit alongside Rudy, Travis, Frye, and Joel. That may be too many scorers for one unit, but I'd love to see those guys get up and down with Joel as the anchor.  Bayless could also steal minutes from Rudy if he ends up looking like the better prospect of the two.  

Sergio Rodriguez - 4 MINUTES - I know the shooting coach paid him a personal visit.  I know his friend and fellow countryman's arrival should make him more comfortable.  Nonetheless, Sergio will have a tough time seeing action next season. If we had kept Rush and not traded for Bayless, Jack would've gone via some other facet and Sergio may have been able to step in as the primary back-up to Blake.  The bright side is, should any of our guards get injured (knock on wood, but with two rookie guards like Rudy and Bayless, you wouldn't expect either to play all 82 games), Sergio will be a very serviceable replacement.  If he can run the pick and roll half as well with Oden as he did with Jamal Magloire he should be good for at least 5 assists for every 5 minutes of action.  The only hope for Sergio is if Bayless keeps his head down and sucks at running the break, because we know Sergio is a high energy guy that at least can get up and down the court and find open players.  As it stands, Sergio's limited 8.8 minutes from last season appear poised to be cut in half.

THAT'S IT! 240! If only there were 5 fifths to a game instead of 4 quarters!

It was really tough to diplomatically dispense these minutes as a fan, so imagine how hard Nate's job is going to be next year.  Rudy and Bayless will be rooks, but both are extremely competitive and will likely be unhappy with less than 20 minutes each. Travis and Martell will want more minutes than those rooks simply because they've been here longer and are very talented/promising players in their own right.  Sergio, Joel, and Blake will be the most shafted in minutes compared to what they played last season.  Martell and Travis are developing players that would like to have more minutes than last season, but they will likely see a dip in minutes as well.  

Luckily, the team we have now is not the team we had 5 years ago.  That team would have had a mutiny if minutes were slashed.  This Blazers group now is young, cool, and poised...at least we hope so.  Winning will be the best remedy for lack of playing time.  The Big 3's going to get theirs and that's what matters most, but we're going to need the best out of our role players this year.  My guess is whoever does the best with the limited minutes they get will be the ones that are still here in a couple years. As presently constructed, it's tough to imagine this team growing together while continually sacrificing minutes for each other.  But we'll save that speculation for another post.  

So...do my esteemed colleagues here on BEdge agree with this assessment?  Who do you think deserves more or less minutes than I predicted?  Hopefully every game we play this year goes into triple-overtime so that everyone can have their time to shine.  

-shwa