The thing that is hard with this team is we have so little experience outside of the fantasy leagues to know how to think straight about our incoming rookie class. We know Oden is a Force of Nature, and that should be the end of it. But it isn’t. What struck me about both Bayless and Fernandez isn’t so much their considerable talent as their refusal to lose; you can almost imagine a rivalry lasting for…oh, yeah; I forgot; they will start playing for the same team next season.

Dave, I agree that we, as a fanbase, are getting past the point when we look to individual awards for satisfaction. However, if this team exceeds expectations (top 4 team in west) then Greg will get the ROY.

When his career is over, I hope most people will compare GO to Bill Russell, the greatest winner in the NBA with 11 titles in 13 years.

But I do, however, believe he will get ROY this year after we win over 50 games and we are near the top in defense. There won’t be anyone who will be close.

The only possible competition for Oden might be Beasley. It certainly isn’t going to be Rose. However, I can’t see any player having the overall impact that Oden will have – including Beasley. Beasley might outscore Oden – but he isn’t going to get as many rebounds, and he’ll never get the blocks nor play the defense that Oden will play. Oden will alter the game on both ends for Portland, Beasley will only alter it on one end.

As far as Bayless and Fernandez. One or both could be on the all rookie team by the end of the year. Certainly, others seem to think so.

Oden has high expectations and these awards usually go to players who exceed low expectations rather than fulfill high ones.

Does this make the Durant/Horford question this year an abberation?

However, I think you are setting the bar to low for Oden. The kid is a monster. I live in the SE now, and even kids playing BB in the park know Oden, and what he can do. I think he will win R.O.Y. and that the Blazers will make the playoffs, and scare a team or maybe two. Defense wins Championships, and Oden is made to play defense. Once he shuts down Yao, and Shaq, and maybe even Superman himself, he will be at the top of the list for his rookie award. And yes, I feel it is RIGHTFULLY his to take. All he has to do is perform to his abilities, and the others will be also rans.

If Oden puts up 15pts/13rebs/2.5blocks, and the Blazers improve to win over 50 games does he win over Beasley if he puts up 18 and 8 while the heat rebuild again? I don’t see how he doesn’t win the ROY if he can do that. There is no one from this years rookie class that can match Oden for raw talent, and no one from this rookie class that can match Oden phsyically, and no one from this years rookie class that can match Oden’s charismatic personally that will/has capture the media’s attention. All of that adds up to more Oden highlights, and more Oden sound bits, and more Oden exposure, which if matched wtih production will equal the ROY for Greg Oden.

OK, I looked at the past 10 years’ ROYs and here are the results:
Player Points Rebs Asts Blks
Vince Carter 18 6 3 2
Elton Brand 20 10 2 2
Steve Francis 18 5 7 –
Mike Miller 12 4 2 –
Pau Gasol 18 9 3 2
Amare Stoudemire 14 9 1 1
Lebron James 20 6 6 1
Emeka Okafor 15 11 1 2
Chris Paul 16 5 8 –
Brandon Roy 17 4 4 1
Kevin Durant 20 4 2 1
Average 17 7 4 1

If you throw out Mike “my draft class sucked” Miller all of the averages go up.

This quick analysis tells me that Oden will need to score more 14 points a night in order to win the award.

oden is the kind of guy that only comes around every 11 years or so so looking back 10 years isnt good enough. after watching the work out tapes yesterday, i can honestly say in fair judgement that oden is going to average 15 dunks a game. that will equate to an average of 30points and give him roy honors.