He’s not leaving Atlanta, and he doesn’t really fit our team culture.

Bayless and Sergio will compete for backup time at the start of the year, and the winner will run the break for us on the second unit. We’ll see more running on the second unit with Joel to anchor the defense and rebounding. I expect Bayless to win that battle.

By next summer, when we’ll be looking at making a move, Bayless will have established himself as the PG most likely to start, and he’ll be running the break. We won’t need that role from our SF.

The starting point for most fast breaks is at the rim. The ability to grab the rebound and whip it down the court was something that Walton, for example, has mastered. Walton had 4 years of college ball whereas Oden has had one, and in Wooden’s system, he’d pretty much mastered the outlet pass. The addition of Bayless and Fernandez will bring more speed, quickness and finishing to the team. At this point, the Blazers are a different team than last year, although it’s going to take some time and patience for it to become evident. Of the three rookies we expect contributions from, Oden will be the first starter. The rest of the team – Roy, Blake, Webster and Aldridge, will remain the same. Outlaw will continue to be the 6th man and Frye and Pryz will be the 7th and 8th. Bayless and Fernandez will then be integrated into the system. As a result, the skills they bring could take at least 1/2 a season to become clearer, and a full season or even longer to become truly effecitve. Of the two, I suspect that Bayless will be the one two get more early playing time as his defensive abilities appear to make him a better complementary player at this time. Fernandez may very well be used much like Outlaw, in that instant offense may be his early strong point as he can clearly get his shot and his length enables the Blazers, much like is also true of Outlaw, to create mismatches. I still think that the next most critical stage in the Blazers development will come next spring. At that point, we’ll start making decisions about Frye, Diogu and Webster, as we’ll have to sign or trade them if we don’t want to have $37 million in cap holds placed on the Blazers next summer. Right now, it appears that we’re most likely to deal with the SF spot at that time, due to the fact that Blake, Roy and Sergio are signed, and Fernandez and Bayless are rookies. As a result, we can afford to let the Guards develop. Webster, as a result, will be the key to what happens in the spring. If his game steps up another notch, and we feel that he and Outlaw give us the play we want at SF, then thee wi’ll be little trade action regardless of our cap space. We’d simply sign Webster. However, if we decide that we can do better at SF (much as we did in swapping Jack for Bayless), then Webster will likely be a part of a trade, along with either Frye or Diogu. If Frye shows Nate that he can improve his scoring, effectively play the PF position, and provide insurance at center, then he’d be the most likely to be kept – given two way players are more valuable. Webster would be traded because it’s his position that is being upgraded (like Jack), and Diogu would also go because you don’t pay someone $3 million to $4 million to be the third option at any position. These two, combined with cap space, could get us the wing player we may want. And, with the caveat of Oden’s health, we should keep in mind that having twin towers up front (whether Oden/Aldridge or Pryz/Frye), we may well be looking for a quick and speedy reincarnation of Jones who also has a three point shot.

It will be interesting in the Spring, that’s for certain. In my book – the action next year comes down to Webster.

Some random thoughts about running:

Rebounding starts the break, especially if you can pass to mid-court. You have to develop a mindset to find an open team-mate rather than smother the ball after you rebound it.

Magic Johnson if he didn’t rebound it himself, always came back for the ball. If you are the best break dribbler, come back and get the ball. It doesn’t do you any good to run down the floor if nobody can get it down to you.

Jerome Kersey was never a great runner with the ball. But he could definitely finish. You shouldn’t always expect the SF to be the break starter. Go with what you got.

This team may have to rely on more passing then dribbling if they want to run. Which means they will have to really work on spacing and knowing their roles.

What I mean is if it were in fact true that the weakness or “gray area” the Blazers have has to do with not having players that can “facilitate” the fast break, than we truly would have problems on a much much larger scale than simply not being to properly execute a fast break.

In its simplest terms, the fast break starts on the defensive end with the defensive rebound where the ball is outlet to a wing player or a guard who can quickly distribute the ball to the players who have already took off towards their basket. As you alluded to, the rebounding aspect of this has been an issue in the past. If my memory serves we were near the bottom in defensive rebounding last season. All of this changes with Oden on the court. I don’t mean to make Oden out to be a remedy for all that ails us or a cure for the common inept fast break, to be sure he will make mistakes and let us down. Your best or favorite player always will. That said, everything still changes with Oden on the court.

I don’t see us having a problem with players not being able to facilitate the fast break. If you’re an NBA player and you can’t pass well enough or pick your positions on defense to beat your opponent down court you shouldn’t be playing in the NBA. Period. We simply never worked on it in practice last year because Nate never really bought in to last year’s team being that style of team, or to more specific, a team that he felt could run the fast break consistently without losing the shooting match. This year all of that changes with Oden.

Even with improved rebounding next year I think it’ll be difficult to run a traditional fast break via rebound/outlet. Going 90 feet directly is tough without a traditional point/facilitator like Nash or Paul. Brandon makes very good decisions but is a pace controller not a pace pusher. He has mentioned this himself and wants to push pace more, but I think its difficult for a 6-6” 230lb guy to do this consistently.

However, the best way to key the break is by a steal. Going from the hash mark or half court directly to the rim is much easier. It is here that Rudy may help a great deal. He already has a knack for steals, and is a 3 or 4 threat guy in the open court able to shoot from distance, handle well enough, get to the rim or find other people. Granted his containment D needs work.

Oden obviously is a key here by helping to allow the perimeter guys to gamble a bit more defensively (lets hope not too much in Rudy’s case). This style would suit Brandon, Bayless, Rudy & Outlaw (although I’d prefer he only caught it and finished). I like Martel, but he is so one-dimensional at present (and even that dimension can be streaky). Lets hope he can develop some handle and get in the mix.

On the ‘77 teams, we had Walton AND Lucas rebounding and triggering the fastbreak to pg’s Johnny Davis, Dave Twardzik, and Lionel Hollins. The finishing piece was the fleet footed and always hustling Bobby Gross.

Remembering that team, I don’t really recall Walton or Lucas running the lanes. Their job was to defend, block shots, and rebound and to make long outlet passes to half court to a waiting Hollins and usually blazing Johnny D.!

The Drexler teams really didn’t become explosive until the Blazers acquired Buck Williams. Again, a big man committed to defending and rebounding the ball. That team had versatile guards in Drexler (dribbles with his head down, no left hand, and to this day still kills me!) and the multi talanted Terry Porter, and of course, the high flying Jerome Kersey filling the lanes for thundering dunks!

Both teams were committed to pushing the ball and looking for fast break opportunities. The ‘77 squad got it done with a HOF center in Walton whose defense and outlet passing is still the standard for big men in the NBA.

The Drexler teams got it done with tremendous perimeter defense from Clyde, Terry, and Jerome getting into passing lanes and making fast breaks opportunities off of turnovers and mistakes by their opponents!

For ‘77 it was Walton triggering the break. In the ‘90’s it was Drexler pushing the ball. Who on this current roster has the will to push the ball?

So, who is the identy of this team? It’s Brandon Roy, correct!

So, do you honestly see Brandon Roy pushing the ball and initiating fast breaks for this team? I have been watching Brandon’s play for two years now and I love his game but I don’t see a fast break player. He admits himself that his coaches going back to AAU have always pushed him have more pace in his game? Hmmm, pace? Aren’t they really saying they want Brandon to get up and down the court faster? You know, like a Fast Break?

I really do not believe this is Roy’s strength! Yes, I watched the All Star game and yes Roy did get up and down in that game. But he said it himself, many of the rebounds that came off the boards, he was chasing only to get beaten to the ball by his All Star team mate, Chris Paul. If Roy had gotten to the ball first, would he had pushed the ball like Paul? Based off what I have seen for the past two years, I say not! He would have walked the ball up the court and started a half court offense!

And, remind me again, how much defense is played in the All Star games? It’s like PTB fans think because Brandon got multiple layups in that game, he was fast breaking madman running down the floor! News flash, NO ONE plays defense in those All Star games, it suppose to be a show, not a contest! Until the last few minutes, nobody contest shots! Of course there are fast break opportunities for EVERYONE, not just Brandon Roy!

So, in my opinion, if not Roy, who? Yes, Oden can rebound and Block shots? As far as an outlet pass, I have no idea if he is capable of initiating the break? Lets hope so!

What about Blake? Probably not, he’s a half court guy! No doubt Aldridge wants to run but he needs someone to start the break so he can finish! Webster or Outlaw, both are better suited to be finishers. So, who pushes the ball?

The best candidates are probably Sergio or Bayless If Nate really is committed to pushing the ball then he will need to give Sergio another hard look because this is the strongest part of Sergio’s game. Bayless has the fire and determination to push the ball but does he have the willingness to give it up when it’s time to convert? With the likes of Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw, Webster, Fernandez, and even Oden, on the wings, will Bayless give up the ball? In the case of Sergio, again, this is his greatist strength!

Please don’t get me wrong! I love Roy’s game! I just think he is best suited for a half court game! However, if we have a committment to run, he is more than capable receiving long outlet passes and creating for himself or his other team mates. But, when I watch him play, I see a guy who want to slow the game down to HIS pace, and create the best opportunity for himself or his team mates by penetrating and kicking to the open guy!