50 wins, I could see 41 wins. We all have to remember that this was the youngest team last year and they got younger this year. Yes, I think they improved. I also think that they improved with more youth. Patience still needs to be the path to the future. I feel that the Blazers management has targeted 2009/2010 with huge jumps up to that point. Look at the Magic the year that Shaq came into the league up to their loss to Houston in the Championship series. I see a lot of parallels between that team and the Blazers. The Blazers still play in the Western Conference which is as tough as it’s ever been. As a fan I’m going to hold back my aspirations of success. Support a management team that appears to have made huge strides. They have done a great job building an entertaining team that works hard and pushes for a common goal. In my opinion, fans can easily get greedy not looking at the big picture and focusing on what they have and not who they have.

We have 6 new guys on the 15 man roster (counting Koponen and Batum but not Freeland). And 5 of those guys are rookies this year: Oden, Fernandez, Bayless, Koponen and Batum. This should be the last year we will be in the draft lottery. KP has accumulated a tremendous number of talented young players. This will be only the 3rd season for Roy and LaMarcus. Webster should be a senior in college — his 4th year as a pro. Keep this in mind. It seems like we have been counting on these guys forever but it is only really for 2 years.

The’76-’77 team was Walton’s second year but he had 4 years at UCLA. It was Maurice Lucas first year with the Blazers but he had experience in the ABA. It was Jack Ramsey’s first year as the Blazer coach. After the fantastic championship, the ‘77-’78 season started out like gangbusters. All until Walton was hurt and then the team fell apart the following years.

All of us here want a championship as soon as possible but be realistic. Don’t threaten to get off the bandwagon if it takes a couple years longer than we hope for. We have fantastic talent and other teams want to steal our players if we give up on any one of them.

I think 51 wins is a realistic goal for this year. In the west that means 7th or 8th seed and having to face the best or second best team in the first round of the playoffs. So we may not make it to the second round this season. But each game gives that much more experience to build on. My fear is that KP will get impatient and try to force the team’s development by trades. But that means giving up on a good young player. There will be lots of decisions for Nate in allocating playing time and developing the rookies. I hope everyone stays patient and lets this team develop. Then I hope Blazer management and Paul Allen will pay these guys to keep them here in Portland for multiple championships.

I’d be stunned with 50+ wins. Simply wont happen in the west.

The only sure thing on this team is Roy, and he is injury prone. 50+ wins will happen if everything is perfect, but that seldom happens in the NBA (sans 07-08 celtics).

KP has said look for the 2nd half to see the real Greg Oden. How we play at the end of the year is noteworthy of how we will move forward. Rookies will earn minutes under Coach Nate by effort and defense and by shooting well. If effort and one of the other two are present then I would expect the three rookies to get some burn (and Greg far more).

The Western Conference (imo) is not going to be as dominant this year as last. Free agents are moving, young teams are improving, injuries (especially Miami) may not be repeating. I can see every team in the East except Detroit Boston and New Jersey getting better. Should Lebron get any help he can own a game as we have seen. Atlanta got better as the year progressed. Chicago will have new energy and many players scrambling to survive and remain. Philadelphia believes it is poised to move ahead. Orlando faded at the end last year but another year with the same guys will be strong again. Indiana added Rush, Jack and Hibbert and finally can move past Jermaine whose presence in Toronto with Bosh could be deadly if he is healthy and with Calderon owning the point.

In the West Portland has the biggest improvement in roster but Shaq and Kidd are not done yet and with a training camp will be tougher. Memphis may sign Marc Gasol and with Mayo and Arthur added and the young roster getting better will be a surprise. Utah and Denver and Golden State are in decline and OKC Rustlers are a disaster. Houston always has a great team except for injuries. Is this another?

My point is there are enough transitions in the league to make it tough to predict the year. This is, as you say, a development year and a make-or-break year for Martell. I think Outlaw has done enough to be in our longer planning. #25 alive! I want to watch this year (or read if Comcast still discriminates against the rest of Oregon and SW Washington from watching). and enjoy the progress measured not game by game but maybe more quarter by quarter.

Personally, I could care less if we make the play-offs this year. I’m more interested in seeing the new system that will need to be implemented, and it will take much of this year to do that. The likely guards of the future are Roy, Bayless and Fernandez, but two of these are rookies. We also have a rookie at center. The SF spot is still up in the air. Outlaw has proven to be a good rotation player, but we don’t know if he can be a good starter – after all, he’s never started. Webster, will step up or he won’t. Like it or not, the only starters back from last year that are pencilled in are Roy and Aldridge. The other three positions are in flux. Further, Roy will be in his third year, but both his game and team role will still need to evolve, as any move to replace Blake over time with Bayless and Fernandez, will force those changes.

Optimistic? Sure. But the people who have to step up to take the Blazers to play-offs are rookies. Roy/Pryz/Outlaw/Webster/Blake and Aldridge aren’t going to do that. They may improve, but it will be incremental. Further, the requirements from the SF slot will change because the team is changing. Every position must go through a learning curve, and every position must adjust to the changes at the other positions.

This will not be an “over-night” transition. Keep in mind that the team we had is a 41 win team. Without the rookies, they’d still be a 41 win team, and, with some improvement, maybe a 43-45 win team – maybe.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that we do make the play-offs. But that’s going to depend primarily on Oden, and only secondarily on Bayless/Fernandez. A truly dominant center – as Walton, Akeem/Chamberlain/Russell/Shaq have proven, is the real game changer.

I would also comment that the rebuilding for the Blazers began with KP and the Aldridge/Roy draft of two years ago. Last year, neither Oden nor Fernandez played, so that the rebuilding essentially stalled. Granted, there were a few changes such as eliminating Randolph, and adding Frye, Blake and Jones, but Jones was temporary, and Frye and Blake were never intended to be permanent starters. This year, with Oden and Fernandez finally ready to play, and with Bayless and Batum from this years draft also on the team, the serious rebuilding begins. However, it is still not by any means over. On the personnel side, much has been done. But on the team side, it’s only beginning. And, next summer, we may well see one additional change. And that will be known by February. Then, the issue of Outlaw/Webster will finally be decided. One will start for the coming years, or by summer, one will be traded and a starter acquired. Then, as the year progresses, we’ll see what Batum can or can’t do. By next year, his role will also likely be decided. Outlaw could conceivably carve out a 6th man position, even if he’s not the ideal permanent SF starter. In this sense, Martel’s the man on the hot seat. If Webster can’t claim the starting position, then it seems unlikely that we’ll pay him the money he might want to be a backup if Batum show us anything, meaning he’ll likely be traded in the spring.

Memphis is getting young quick. They aren’t at Portland level yet, but they are definitely getting younger.