and for an update on the 2009 summer cap situtation, assuming no trades:

Group A- Locked In: $30,817,862 for 8 contracts
Przybilla, Oden, LMA, Outlaw, Roy, Sergio, Rudy, Bayless

Group B- Potential rookies: $1,789,700 for 2 contracts
Nicolas Batum: $932,300
Petteri Koponen: $857,400
2009 1st round: ??? (estimate around $1 million)

Group C- Team option: $4,930,000
Steve Blake: $4,930,000

Group D- 2009 Cap Holds: $29,543,172 for 3 cap holds
Martel Webster: $11,313,399
Channing Frye: $9,491,307
Ike Diogu: $8,738,466

So, take group A, and mix and match any and all combinations from groups B, C, and D to figure out how much potential cap room we could have next summer (cap should be around $60 million then)

So, we have about $37,500,000 committed, and then we have cap holds on Channing, Martel and Diogu. You can rest assured KP has the same spreadsheet. If you look at the market today, then if these were to be kept, they’d all likely resign in the $4 million to $5 million range (like Blake). This would take us to about $48 to $50 million, leaving us at least $10 million to $12 million under the cap if it’s $60 million. In terms of Channing, Martel and Diogu, Pritch, who is always proactive, will talk to them well in advance to judge whether or not they’re likely to delay signing – which would affect his ability to sign free agents. After all, if KP goes into the market to improve a position, then at least one player at the affected position will be either traded, or be a part of that transaction. (i.e. Jack and Rush vs. Bayless).. This should add another $3 million to $5 million – giving KP up to $15 million or $16 million to sign a free agent. If you look at the market right now, players like Howard, Ben Gordon and Magette are making $9 million to $11 million, and Barron Davis, Brand etc., are making some $13 million to $16 million. KP can likely get players of this caliber – if he chooses. It wouldn’t, as a result, surprise me at all to see KP offer contracts well in advance.

I would also point out that Diogu was a throw-in. If KP just released him and kept Channing, that wouldn’t be too surprising. At the same time, if SF is the position KP seeks to upgrade, then Martel would likely be traded in any case.

Check out New York’s contracts, and then Miami’s..

Brand was an example, not someone we’d have any interest in. And I agree with some that imply we need to retain much of this cap to keep the team we have. After all, if Oden stays healthy, he’ll be an elite player in this league. And that means he will command in the $20 mill range easy. Then, Aldridge has better numbers than Howard, who’s now shopping in the $11 mill range. Roy is a better bet downstream than Barron Davis, who just signed a 5 year deal for $13 mill a year. If Bayless and/or Fernandez turn out to be keepers, then they’ll command at least what Ben Gordon makes, which is $9 mill. That’s $62 million right there, and the cap next year is projected to be $60 mill. That doesn’t account for the SF position, nor rotational players like Frye, Pryz, a 2nd SF, or even a Blake. Right now even Diogu makes $3.1 mill. If the starting SF took down $9 mill, and the other 4 averaged $5 mill – which is what Blake makes, that’s another $29 mill, for a total of $91 mill, which is $30 mill over the cap today. Granted, this will all hit in 3-4 years. But it’s what KP has to deal with.

If there’s one thing that becomes increasingly clear, it is that regardless of “cap-space” next summer, team’s simply cannot afford more than three stars, plus support pieces. Paul signed a contract for $68 million for three years. Arenas signed one for $111 million for 5, they will both make $22 million and change per year. That is over 1/3 of the cap space of about $60 million each team has available. In 3-5 years, the Blazers will be clearly fighting all of this. I don’t see how anyone can think, looking downstream, that the Blazers can pay $10 million for the SF slot, and pay the kinds of salaries they almost certainly will have long term commitments for at Center, PF, and the two guard slots.