Differences of opinion are most often a product of perceptions and preconceived notions, whether conscious or subconscious, which alter the way individuals interpret facts.  Opinions of Jerryd Bayless are very diverse.  In general, however, we develop these opinions from the same sources of information (summer league games, shot charts, interviews, youtube videos, scouting reports, etc.) which indicates that our conflicting views is not from a difference in evidence, but analysis. I hold the unpopular opinion that Jerryd Bayless should be our starting point guard as the season begins.  Rather than rant and rave about his strengths, however, I would prefer to articulate the manner in which I evaluate his perceived shortcomings and team role.  Maybe after sharing the process, some other Blazer fans will begin to believe, like I do, that Bayless would be an excellent fit as our starting point guard right away; or maybe some knowledgeable fans will illuminate some flaws in my evaluation process, which will cause me to change my opinion on this matter.

            First, it is always important that analysis begins with an accepted or at least identified list of concerns or shortcomings that we can take into account as we evaluate a player’s potential.  My analysis of Bayless would be skewed if I thought “Rex” is just a childhood nickname and not an allusion to his widely criticized short wingspan.  The most in depth list of his criticisms that I could find is from his prospect page on DraftExpress.  The concerns include:

• Stuck between 1 and 2

• Average wingspan

• Better scorer than playmaker

• Better playing off the ball

• Undersized for SG

• Dominant ball-handler

• Decision-making in half-court

• Struggles to create shots w/left hand

• Shot-selection

• Ability to fight through screens

• Ability to defend SGs

• Needs time to develop

• Team didn't win much

            These concerns fall into three categories:  Player specific (concerns about Bayless’ physical or mental limitations) Role Specific (an inability to fulfill a function that the team might commonly ask of him) and Superfluous concerns (those that may not even relate to Bayless but surround him… specifically that his “[t]eam did not win much”)  Some of these concerns are both “player specific” and “role specific.”  For example, “Ability to defend SGs” addresses both a physical shortcoming (his size) but that concern could be mitigated by the absence of a role concern (him being in a situation where he is never required to guard a SG.)

            Since many of the concerns about Jerryd Bayless are role specific, it would be prudent to spell out the role of the player who will be joining Brandon Roy in the backcourt this coming season.  I intentionally avoid using the term point guard (or even guard at all) when describing the position for the player joining Roy because the tradition labeling of positions connote many assumption about the roles for the player filling that position which may or may not be accurate depending upon the strengths and weaknesses of the players around him.

            While it may be ideal to have each player on the floor excel at all of the traditional aspects of his particular position, it is not imperative.  The game of basketball is a team sport.  Rather than breaking the game down into five individual positions with separate roles for each, teams excel when they look at all the necessary attributes to play the game, and fill them based on the collective strengths of the five players on the floor.  While a Center is traditionally a low-post scorer and a wing is traditionally a perimeter shooter, if your center is more comfortable on the perimeter and your “wing” is more efficient with his back to the basket, it would be imprudent for a coach to avoid playing to his players strengths because just because they do not fall within the traditional roles of the set positions.  With this in mind, we should evaluate all of the roles that need to be filled on the basketball court from every position and see between our other four projected starters, and see what roles will the final starting position player need to fill.

            In his book, “The Basketball Handbook: Winning essentials for players and coaches,” Lee H. Rose does an excellent job articulating the specific roles for each traditional position.  Rose describes the characteristics of a traditional Point Guard as:

• A coach on the floor like the great John Stockton.
• Has peripheral awareness and makes good decisions with the ball.
• Un selfish-thinks pass first, shot second.
• Primarily a ball handler and distributor who knows who is hot.
• The more speed and quickness he has, the better.
• Should be able to separate and create space when dribbling.
• Directs the offensive and defensive formations.
• Pushes the ball for fast breaks and calls half-court plays.
• Maintains constant communication with the coaches.
• Vocal leader on the floor.
• Discusses rule interpretations with the officials.
• During dead-ball situations such as free throws and out-of-bounds situations, he passes on information to teammates concerning strategy and matchups.
• Knows the time on both clocks, the score, the number of time-outs, and whom to foul.
• Size is a plus but is secondary to knowledge and skill. (Rose, 14)

            If the debate between Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless is, “Who does a better job of fulfilling the roles on this list?” then hands down, Steve Blake would win. When focusing on team synergy, however, the argument can be made that other players on the floor (specifically Brandon Roy) fill many of the roles on this list better than either Blake or Bayless which would mean the final starting spot should not go to the player that better fills this traditional list, but better fills the holes in the traditional roles of our other four starters.  Since it appears Brandon Roy fills most of the traditional point guard roles, the next step is to evaluate which tradition shooting guard roles Brandon Roy struggles with or does not perform as well as the traditional point guard roles.  Once again Rose does an impeccable job of crystallizing the traditional roles of a shooting guard:

“Two Guard – A scoring touch.

Characteristics:

• Position requires great skills and perimeter shooting.
• Primary role is to score points; can sacrifice defense for offense at this position.
• Typically they are big, from 6-3 to 6-7, and athletic, like Kobe Bryant, Allen Houston, Tracy McGrady, and Michael Finley.
• Size is not an absolute restriction; smaller guards like Allen Iverson and David Wesley are exceptions who thrive as shooters.
• Should be able to handle the ball, beat opponents off the dribble, penetrate, and finish at the basket.
• Should have good catch-and-shoot skills coming off pin-downs and baseline screens.
• The better ball handler, the more difficult he is to defend.
• Good open court player because of ability to pull up for open shots.
• Should be a good free-throw shooter because in late-game situations he is involved in handling the ball and taking last-second shots.
• Needs to be a good one-on-one player to be highly effective.

            In reviewing the roles of the shooting guard, Brandon Roy fills many of these roles as well.  Unfortunately, he is only one man and despite Paul Allen’s wealth and copious amounts of research, science has yet to determine a away to clone Brandon Roy.  The next best solution is to evaluate which player combination will collectively do the best job of filling all of these individual roles.  This is very different than finding the next best player to put next to Roy.  In fact, the analysis can lead to selecting the far inferior player, but it will always lead to the best possible team synergy.  Here is a theoretical situation to show why the best player is not the best team synergy:

            You may think I am crazy when I tell you that I would start Kwame Brown over John Stockton any day of the week, but in certain circumstances this statement is true.  Imagine if you have six players to make a team.  Five of them are carbon copies of John Stockton and your sixth player is Kwame Brown.  Obviously you will have to start four John Stockton’s in you lineup leaving you with only one question, “Who is my fifth starter: John Stockton or Kwame Brown?”  Obviously if you are looking at the players independent of the team, you would say John Stockton.  In this case, however, Kwame Brown is the better choice.  While Stockton offers excellent passing, court vision, stealing, etc. four other starters are just as talented in those areas.  While Kwame Brown is below average as a center, he can fill the remaining roles much better than a fifth John Stockton.  In this case, the team will play better starting one of the biggest draft busts in recent memory, over one of the 50 Best Players of All-Time.

            It all comes down to the law of diminishing marginal utility.  That’s right, a good old-fashioned position battle can be reduced to a seemingly mundane economics lesson.  The “fifth Stockton’s” value is extremely diminished because the other four Stockton’s have the same strengths and weaknesses; thus, the fifth Stockton’s strengths are diminished and weaknesses are amplified making him less valuable than Kwame Brown.

            The same rule should be applied when determining whom the other guard next to Brandon Roy should be.  Without getting too detailed, Blake can fill most of the tradition point guard roles and some of the traditional shooting guard roles; Bayless can fill some of the traditional point guard roles and most of the traditional shooting guard roles;  and finally, Brandon Roy can fulfill almost all of the traditional shooting guard and point guard roles.

Now… with the laws of diminishing marginal utility in mind, let’s try to determine which combo would make the best backcourt.  Rate Roy, Blake and Bayless on their abilities to fill each role for the both guard positions as listed above.  (Complete list of roles is also available at the end of the post)  Combine the ratings of two players to fill all of the roles of one back-court (trying to make sure that the number of total roles is balanced between the two (even if Bayless or Blake rank lower than Roy, but if Roy has too many roles, give the other player a role that he is close to as good as Roy))  Which combo makes for the best backcourt?  For me, a Roy/Bayless backcourt is far better because Bayless’ strengths filled Roy’s weaknesses.

Now that you have your most efficient backcourt, look at the roles that you have given to Bayless.  Compare them to Bayless’ weaknesses listed above.  Do any of the “Role Specific” weaknesses not apply because Roy fills those roles?

Point Guard Skills:

• A coach on the floor like the great John Stockton.  Roy:8 Blake:7 Bayless:4
• Has peripheral awareness and makes good decisions with the ball. Roy:9 Bl:8 Ba:5
• Un selfish-thinks pass first, shot second. Roy:8 Bl:9 Ba:-4
• Primarily a ball handler and distributor who knows who is hot. Roy:8 Bl:8 Ba:5
• The more speed and quickness he has, the better. Roy:8 Bl:5 Ba:9
• Should be able to separate and create space when dribbling. Roy:9 Bl:5 Ba:8
• Directs the offensive and defensive formations. Roy:9 Bl:8 Ba: 5
• Pushes the ball for fast breaks and calls half-court plays. Roy:5 Bl:8 Ba:9
• Maintains constant communication with the coaches. Roy:10 Bl:8 Ba:7
• Vocal leader on the floor. Roy:10 Bl:7 Ba: (does the scowl count)
• Discusses rule interpretations with the officials. Roy:8 Bl:6 Ba:4
• During dead-ball situations such as free throws and out-of-bounds situations, he passes on information to teammates concerning strategy and matchups.Roy:9 Bl:7 Ba:5
• Size is a plus but is secondary to knowledge and skill. Roy:9 Bl:7 Ba:6

Shooting Guard Skills:

• Position requires great skills and perimeter shooting. Roy:8 Bl:6 Ba:8
• Primary role is to score points; can sacrifice defense for offense at this position. Roy:8 Bl:4 Ba:9
• Typically they are big, from 6-3 to 6-7, and athletic, like Kobe Bryant, Allen Houston, Tracy McGrady, and Michael Finley. Roy:8 Bl:4 Ba:6
• Should be able to handle the ball, beat opponents off the dribble, penetrate, and finish at the basket. Roy:8 Bl:5 Ba:9
• Should have good catch-and-shoot skills coming off pin-downs and baseline screens. Roy:7 Bl:5 Ba:8
• The better ball handler, the more difficult he is to defend. Roy:8 Bl:6 Ba:8
• Good open court player because of ability to pull up for open shots. Roy:7 Bl:6 Ba:8
• Should be a good free-throw shooter because in late-game situations he is involved in handling the ball and taking last-second shots. Roy:8 Bl:7 Ba:9
• Needs to be a good one-on-one player to be highly effective. Roy:8 Bl:4 Ba:9