Honestly, summer league is not that exciting.

I have watched every single stage of the Tour so far, so the rest day was nice because I got to focus solely on the Blazers today.

At this point, I think the favorites should be narrowed down to Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde, Christian Vandevelde, and Kim Kirchen (not necessarily in that order).

Evans is clearly the strongest rider in the race, and should do a lot of damage in stage 20 (53km individual time trial), if he’s still hanging around after the Alps. Unfortunately, he has total crap for a team around him. I have no idea how he ended up on Silence-Lotto, but all I can surmise is that they threw the bank at him, he chased the money, and they had nothing left to get decent riders to support him. If he wins, it really will be an individual accomplishment, and I don’t think he can do it. He’s done a good job of letting the other top guys’ teams pull him along, but sooner or later they’ll cut him off.

Valverde has been underwhelming so far, but at least he’s not kneeling down and keeling over like Cunego. His strength lies in that he’s pretty good at just about everything, even though he’s not spectacular at anything. Additionally, Caisse d’Epargne is one of the strongest teams in the Tour, and if they help him right and plan well, that could get him the maillot jaune. Unfortunately, with his recent string of lackluster performances, it seems as if his teammates may not be completely behind him. That’ll be an interesting dynamic.

Kim Kirchen is a similar rider to Valverde, in that he’s good at a lot, but not an expert in anything, although Valverde is a better climber, and Kirchen is a good sprinter. Again Kirchen’s strength lies in Team Columbia, which looks like it’s been spectacularly assembled and directed. Their in-stage tactics have been great, and they’ve managed to get good results from the whole roster, top to bottom.

I think Vandevelde is kind of a dark horse, but if he can hang around, could make some noise. Although he’s not a spectacular individual climber, Garmin-Chipotle as a team are solid, with some serious climbers to help Vandevelde. If he’s still in good position near the end of the tour, that long time trial will make or break him. If he wants a shot, he’s probably got to have a solid cushion over Evans by then.

I still don’t know what to make of Franck Schleck. Dude has been over- and underachieving (depending on who you listen to) and hyped for several years now, and I’m just not ready yet to trust him as a serious contender. I want to, would love to see him rewarded with a maillot jaune, but can’t believe yet.

I love July, because of summer league and the Tour! I’m not getting any work done this week, and that’s a promise.

i’ve been watching the tour for about 25 years… old school… john tesh style…

anyway… i like cavendesh… i think he’s had some good days and he’s got a solid team… he’s my dark horse…

honestly, he was 2nd last year and does wear the #1 as well. I just think that TT on the next to the last day should be enough for him to wrap it up and put away the rest of the field.

I am looking at CSC to challenge them the most and have been waiting on Sastre to show some form and think that he is gonna have to hit these guys hard in stages 16 and 17 to have any shot of hanging on in the final TT. Schleck could be a dark horse and if he is on goodform we could have a repeat of Hinault/LeMond in 85, of course not as talented of them but the same situation.

It seems that Sastre may be able to come into form once they hit the Alps and he better hope so if he wants any chance at a podium.

BTW Cavendesh is a sprinter and has not shot as the GC and Evens has been on Lotto for the past 3 years. His main problam is the fact that the team is somewhat split between him and McEwen in going after the green jersey. They do have Popovytch who is decent but he was nowhere to be found on the Tourlamet or Hautacam.

I think Van de Velde may have a shot at the podium, ala Julich in 98. We are in one of those in-between periods where there are no clear cut favorites and he may just be able to slip on the podium. He has always had bad luck in the Tour it seems to me, and this is the first time he is THE GC rider and not a domestique. IT seems to me there are so many similarities between the 98 tour and this one and Van de Velde.

I think it will be
Evans
Sastre
Van de Velde

but we’ll see.

It is far to early to be talking about a possible winner. No single rider has dominated the race yet and there are several guys in the hunt. If I had to pick, I’ll go with Spyder’s guys. Vandevelde has been impressive and I have to give points to Evans for his performance in Stage 10 after crashing the previous day.

So far I think the story is how good the two American sponsored teams are doing. I find it slightly ironic that Team Columbia (I love the Tour having a Portland connection) is the old T-Mobile / Deutche Telecom team that was the primary nemesis of Postal.

would all you goofy spandex sporting riders at least choose to ride somewhere there is a shoulder on the road. NO….. you just have to choose the narrow country roads with blind corners and sight restricting hills and dips. Sorry, but I live on what must the the Tour de Willamette Valley route and I’m constantly taking evasive action to avoid a rider in the middle of my lane.

I am always up early to watch the days stage. This is setting up to be an excellent finish. Evans is still the big favorite since he will likely take big time in the final TT but with his stuggles on the climb to Hautacam Schleck and the others could take enough time to hold him off in the final TT. The person who hasn’t been getting any attention this year is Bernard Kohl. I think he has a great chance to get on the podium and possibly challenge for yellow. I am loving Vande Velde this year. He is also a good in the TT so he has a great shot at the podium.

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