When does Kevin Pritchard use his chips? And what chips does he really have to use?

First off, let’s pose a threshold question:  Does KP truly want to add a veteran presence?  He says he does, but the facts and the passage of time are starting to argue against this proposition.  James Jones, one of the top 3-point artists in the league, was a vet, and a good guy, to boot, and he is now gone to a team that gave him just $1.5 million a year more than the Blazers were paying (and keep in mind that KP pays $3 million in cash every year just to take a chance on a low-first-round draft choice).

The more time that goes by, the more one gets the feeling Pritchard just might believe we are gradually evolving our own veteran presence in the form of Roy and Aldridge. (Plus, there are Pryzbilla – a hard-nosed vet if ever there was one - and Blake.) And another vet, a really good one, would be expensive.  Passing the threshold, then – and perhaps we shouldn’t, perhaps the whole story really ends right here – what chips are available for Pritchard to acquire a championship missing link?

Behind Door #1 sits Raef LaFrentz’s $13-million contract expiring next Spring. I can’t count high enough to tabulate the number of times Blazers Edge bloggers have cavalierly placed this asset onto the hypothetical trading block. But is this really a usable trading chip?  Again, facts and time say no.  Once one of the most financially extravagant teams in the league, the Blazers have put a lot of effort into restructuring player salary. There is an overriding goal:  Generate enough money and “cap space” to give Roy, Aldridge, and Oden big raises in the next 2 to 3 years, and hopefully significant salary increases, as well, to one or two other young guys that turn out great. For R-A-O alone, you’ll probably (again, we can only hope!) have to give them raises totaling about $30 million a year (I’m rounding here) above the amounts in the final years of their rookie contracts.

Which brings us to the crucial number in this whole analysis. It is NOT the salary cap (about $59 million); it’s the LUXURY TAX threshold of about $70 million. You have to believe Allen, Pritchard and Partners, LLC, don’t want to go above that level again and start paying 2-for-1 on marginal salaries. And this, in turn, brings us to the root of the problem:  Assuming the LaFrentz, Francis and Miles contracts ALL come off the books next spring, all of the other existing player contracts project out to about $40 million (also rounded). Quite clearly, $40 existing + $30 raises take us right to the $70 luxury tax level. In other words, we need Raef’s money for the guys in house. We can’t spend it twice, so that means Raef’s contract can’t be dealt. If not, what else can?

Obviously, this brings us to Door #2:  Existing talent to trade. Oops!  We’re told R-A-O are off limits.  Well, that leaves all the “riff raff” (pardon the expression) future-potential guys, who probably aren’t valued as highly around the league as we Blazer bloggers think they are.  Oh, yes!  There’s a couple of vets – the kind of guys KP says we need to get, not trade away.  So, yeah, we could deal Pryzbilla. But Pryz is a vet, and even more important, he’s a vet with a mean streak (in addition to being an all around worthy fellow – i.e., a person of “great character”.)  True, a lot of teams need a decent veteran center. But we don’t yet really know for sure if Oden will avoid further injury or, if he does, whether he will foul out of half the games he plays. So you can’t let Pryz go. (For that matter, you can’t let Raef go for the same reasons – to commit fouls #13 to 18 next year at the 5 post, and to back up two injury-prone centers.)

That leaves Door #3 -- draft picks.  Sorry, there’s very little left behind Door #3 because we’re about to run out of worthy draft picks. For starters, you can ignore second-round picks for big-time trading – about all they’re good for is more second rounders. So now to the crux of Door #3. First, we have the B team that we just drafted, Bayless and Batoum; now, that’s a thought – although we then lose our “point guard of the future”. Second, the 2009 draft is likely to be (at least, one can hope) the last one in which the Blazers will have any kind of a reasonable, though depreciating, first-round selection – meaning it’s the last one KP can deal that has anything close to decent value.

But we all know KP LOVES to wheel and deal in the draft. The question is, Can he bring himself to give up next year’s wheeling and dealing to, instead, use our last semi-valuable #1 pick to help us acquire a good player -- hopefully sooner rather than later -- knowing he won’t then have any draft-day fun for the rest of his life?  This will be a wonderful test of Pritchard’s flexibility – to give up the favorite part of his job resume (and a creative task at which he is exceedingly brilliant) to finish off the rebuilding of this team. If he doesn’t, well, come next summer you can take draft picks off the trade market, too, for Door #3 will then conceal . . . nothing.

Conclusion:  With positions #2, 4, and 5 covered, our obvious “holes” (such as they are) are at point and small forward. Alas, there isn’t much quality in the available point-guard market around the league these days. There is, however, a number of very talented – and available - forwards that can slot in at the 3, especially if you’re willing to make some “culture” and “character” allowances. Examples include Marion and Artest, plus Josh Smith in the restricted free agent sector, just for starters.  The best assets we have to deal are our “overvalued” young guys, the BB ’08 draft twins, the fading ‘09 #1 pick, and anything else we can find via a three-way deal. Alas, as we saw with Jared Jack on draft day ‘08, one of our top young guys was barely able to move us from #13 to #11 in the draft – not exactly a quantum leap.  In the balance, then, while the value of our draft picks is rapidly dwindling, the good news is that for a very short window of time there is still some value here, and there is a modest amount, although not a great deal, of trade value in our young players.

All of which means time and money is running out for Pritchard to make a major trade to help this team.  Will KP use his dwindling stockpile of tradable assets to get a needed vet?  Or is the whole “we’d like to get some veteran presence” thing now a myth?  One thought: Despite his draft-day brilliance, KP has yet to make a trade move, salary dumping aside, of any significance in his three-year GM reign. Here’s hoping he can find his new groove. He’ll need it, because the old groove is running out of time.