Handicapping the Active List
by jaywalker on Jul 12, 2008 5:27 AM PDT
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PrintWhile it is premature to say much before even the first summer league game, what will the Blazer's active roster look like on opening day?
As of this minute, and barring any further Kevin Pritchard intervention or injuries, there seems to be a consensus that the Black Unit will consist of Blake, Roy, Webster, Aldridge, and Oden. And the buzz is Bayless, Fernandez, Outlaw, Frye, and Pryzbilla constitute the White Unit. Makes sense. That leaves LaFrentz, Rodriguez, Diogu, Batum, and perhaps Koponen vying for the remaining two roster spots.
It sounds like the Blazers are very high on Diogu, as everyone seems to expect him to be a tougher inside presence than Frye--a really good option for Coach McMillan to have on the bench. He also has his rookie contract player option at the end of the year, and the Blazer's have to play him or trade him to get any value. These two considerations suggest the Blazers have to be thinking of him for the 11th spot. if this happens, it leaves only one spot for which LaFrentz, Sergio, and Batum (and maybe Koponen) must compete. Now the problems begin.
Does Sergio get the final slot? He has a player option at the end of the season as well, so again will have to get some playing time, or else he is gone. He has more experience than Koponen (and Bayless), so perhaps he can play his way into the 12th slot or even onto the White Unit?
A constant drumbeat out of summer camp is how much better Batum is than anyone thought. He can shoot much better than was believed; he is as fast as Webster; he can already defend. The only knock reported is he will be pushed around until he bulks up. Sounds like Batum might already be one of our 12 best players, in which case you have to expect to see him on the active list sometime. Still he seems like a good candidate for the inactive list and to be spending time in the Development League.
If the Blazers sign Kopenan, no one expects him to take too much time away from Blake or Bayless, but would he be good enough for the final spot? The Blazers have seen sufficient development to give him a real look for a spot on the team, but that is a far cry from being the 12th guy even if he is ready for an NBA contract now. If the Blazers give him an offer, do we expect he will be on the inactive list and playing in Idaho?
Finally, while he isn't on the short list of our best player, LaFrentz can still play, is useful in the locker room, and one can never have too many big men, so does he merit the 12th slot? Or does the addition of Diogu reduce him to practice and insurance against injuries to one of the other big men? My guess is LaFrentz starts the season on the inactive list if he is not traded first.
This makes me think that Rodriguez and Batum will be fighting for the 12th and final slot come fall. Sergio will really have to come back turn heads in the fall, or he is toast. It's a mean business.
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If Koponen makes the roster
he’ll spend most of the year in Idaho.
Unless Batum surpasses Martell or Travis this year, or at least gets close (I don’t expect that) he’ll likely spend a lot of time in Idaho. Why have these guys sit on the bench when they can be working on their game in the D-League?
Injuries to rotation players could change this.
Raef is inactive unless someone is injured.
Diogu and Sergio can’t play D-League. They will be 11-12.
What could change that? If Bayless is so far ahead of Sergio that no one would ever play Sergio ahead of him, and Batum is close behind Martell/Travis. Then, you might want Batum in at SF as a defensive stopper in a few situations, and you know you won’t want Sergio. But that creates another problem—only four guards on the roster, which means you’ve got Bayless and Rudy in during garbage time, and you don’t want to see those guys get injured in a blowout.
The ideal roster balance involves 3 players who can play every position. Assuming the 10 man rotation you listed and Diogu on the roster (I think you are right), let’s look at it this way:
Center/Center-capable - Oden, Pryz / LMA, Frye
PF/PF-capable - LMA, Frye, Diogu / Outlaw
SF/SF-capable - Webster, Outlaw / Roy, Diogu, even Frye (situational)
SG/SG-capable - Roy, Fernandez / Bayless
PG/PG-capable—Blake, Bayless / Roy
While we have 3 guys who can play at each of the guard positions, we only have four guards for the two positions. You could argue Martell, but he doesn’t have the handles yet, if he ever will. That would argue that keeping a fifth guard (Sergio) gives you better balance.
The fact that Batum can go to D League while Sergio can’t would also speak to keeping Sergio on the active roster. You want Batum to get a chance to play and develop.
To my thinking, Batum is the guy who has to turn heads if he wants to be on the active roster. Otherwise, he’ll learn all about Boise.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
Rudy is SF and PG capable, imo
How do I set my laser printer to stun?
by prezofdeath on Jul 12, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Not really SF
He’s too thin, he’ll get abused on defense. If he, Brandon, and Bayless (or Blake) are on the floor together, Brandon will be at SF.
You could argue he can play the point, but he’s not really a point. If he and Roy are in at guard together, Roy is going to be the PG. Otherwise, it’s Bayless or Blake, and they would both be PG next to Rudy.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
I think Rudy will play the 3, just because that's the way the Blazers work this out...
.................................. but he’ll be out of position there. All the vid I’ve seen of him indicates he is a natural 2, and really a 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .
t
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
You've been posting this for a while
but he’s no 3, and Roy is more functional at 3 than he is. If we go a three guard set, which is what we’re talking about, on offense we’ll be running three guards, but on defense it will be Roy defending the opposing 3.
Unless we use a zone, of course, in which case it doesn’t matter either way.
And yes, Rudy is a 2 2 2 2 2 2. Unless he’s left open on the perimeter too much, and then it will be 3 3 3 3 3 3.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
Sign of the apocalypse...
The Scot is right about something…
You’ve been posting this for a while
but he’s no 3, and Roy is more functional at 3 than he is.
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
And keep in mind
that you can move player in and out of the top twelve on a day to day basis. The 15 man roster is the more important one i think.
Mortimer: "It’ll be so nice I’ll need microfracture—ON MY WEINER."
Options
The option for rookie contracts are team options, not player options, so the Blazers get to decide whether to keep Sergio. Diogu’s contract will be over, so he’ll have some control over that.
Just a suggestion
I’m high on Bayless, but how about sending him to D-league a few weeks after the start of the season.
It would give Surgio a chance to run with Rudy and if it doesn’t work, bring back Blayless and Surgio gets a spot deep on the bench. Blake then would start and Bayless backs him up.
But, I actually think that Surgio is going to rebound this year and have a solid year due to Rudy. For me Blake will be the odd man out, but I don’t think that this will happen until mid year. I consider him like Udoka. Very solid player, but not the future.
By the way, I think that Bayless will be starting by mid season and Surgio will back him up. Blake is there if a stable hand is needed.
I have wondered about this, too
But Sergio better have a very good training camp.
I don’t think Bayless will start that soon, but I could be wrong. He’s very good.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
We need to wait and see
Sending him to Idaho for the sake of sending him to Idaho is something I don’t see happening. I’m pretty certain he is as good as Sergio (except for court vision) right now.
Can I buy you a fish sandwich?
You only send him to Idaho
if Sergio comes into training camp and tears things up so effectively that Bayless drops to 3rd string, and can’t get any PT.
Even then, it isn’t too likely, because they’ll figure he’s got a good chance to surpass Blake by the end of the year.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
The quicker the Blazers get rid of Sergio, anywhere for anything...
........................................ the better.
t
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
Why?
He’s not that expensive, and you need a translator.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
Isn't he still a little too expensive to just serve as a translator
And Rudy’s English is just fine (better than my Spanish anyway, just like Batum’s is a little better than my French).
If playing time is what Sergio needs and wants, he should look elsewhere. Here he will be behind Blake, Bayless, and now Roy manning the point.
Coach, I promise I wasn't running hard ...
But do you give him away to a competitor
Whose system would he thrive in? Golden State, Denver or New York? Maybe you could make a case for sending him to New York, but Golden State and Denver are conference competitors that you don’t want the chance of him becoming great for.
by danielfarrell on Jul 13, 2008 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Worries like these haven't played out
I seem to recall a few years back, people were really worried about what Telfair might do when playing against us, since he was obviously “about to breakout and become a big impact player”. Wow, what a non-issue that turned out to be. In fact, we’ve had a few “massive upside potential” players that we’ve parted with in the past few years, and looking back later, there just isn’t much regret once the dust settles.
We need to get past the worry that every player we get rid of is about to turn into the next Jermaine O’neal. That had more to do with the lack of focus/skill in our organization, and I don’t see something like that happening anytime soon. If KP thinks that whoever would fill Sergio’s spot is more valuable than Sergio, I don’t think his impact on another team is going to be much of a concern, if any.
by LasloHlyfeld on Jul 13, 2008 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
blake is definitely gone in the future
There’s just not enough room.
I suppose that means if this team wants to stay together… they better win it all next year. I think they only have till the all star game, but if they’re undefeated then KP will most likely not mess with it.
Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624
Blake is only gone
if Sergio or Koponen show they can be better. Otherwise, he’ll be our backup PG.
Eventual guard rotation: Roy 33 mpg, Rudy 25 mpg, Bayless 28 mpg, Blake/Sergio/Koponen 10 mpg.
We’ve got a three guard rotation that is really, really good, so there’s not really much point in upgrading your fourth guard spot when you’ve got a guy like Blake who can hold it down. I don’t see any trades for another PG, unless we can package Bayless plus someone for Deron Williams in a sign and trade next year. If we get an even better PG than Bayless, he’s likely to be part of the deal. Either way, Blake’s future depends on staying ahead of Sergio (likely, IMO) and Koponen (don’t know about that one).
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
No way, you underestimate Blake entirely.
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
I don't think it is underestimating
to say that Bayless is likely to eventually surpass Blake.
So the battle comes down to the backup PG. And Blake is only gone if he drops behind Sergio or PK. I already said he’s likely to stay ahead of Sergio. I don’t know enough about PK. But these guys were both late first rounders, which means KP thought they had a lot of potential upside. I don’t underestimate Blake to say it is possible one of them could surpass him.
But I think we’ll keep Steve through this contract and sign him to another.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
my thoughts exactly.
I’m not against Blake, I just think that other options MIGHT pan out. If they do not, Blake is a good solution.
by parkinglotj on Jul 13, 2008 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree that Bayless will work his way into the starting position
I think chemistry will be the deciding factor over talent. Talent wise I you’re right, but chemistry wise it may take longer.
Sergio may do better, but there is no longer room for him on this team. Your idea of the d-league works well if we’re looking to showcase and trade sergio. Otherwise sergio just remains buried and praying for blowouts to play in.
Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624
PetKo
I’m willing to be he’ll go to euroleague. If not, then he’s definitely in the developmental league and if he’s any good he’ll be cleaning up.
I suspect that Batum is better than we were let on previously. Nate’s response before the draft was “he’s good. raw. needs some work” In other words he was acting very unimpressed. Now you hear “he’s smooth, quick, better than we thought!”
This leads me to believe that Batum is more of a steal than we’re being lead to believe. I look forward to seeing him in summer league.
Oh, my point is that Batum will likely spend time in the D-league to develop, but that trades will be made before the season is over and Batum will come out of the d-league and play some significant minutes in a few games towards the end of the season.
Actually, the way he’s been described, I think he may be our SF of the future. If that’s the case, webster is definitely out. Unfortunately… so is Frye. I think digou is our answer at PF.
Then again, these blazers tend to be a bit unpredictable and frankly that’s part of the fun!
Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624
At PF
we have a #2 pick (LMA), a #8 pick (Frye), and a #9 pick (Diogu). All legit NBA players with different strengths.
At center, we have a #1 pick and a #9.
At SF, we have a #6.
At SG, we have a #7.
At PG, we have a #11.
Then we have Rudy, Travis, and Batum.
I wonder how many other teams have 8 players picked in the top 11. And three players that are potentially starter or even all-star quality who aren’t included in those 8.
It’s not fair, is it?
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
Depends on when they were picked
E.g. Dallas could have almost sent the 1999 Eastern All-Stars on the field last year, and nobody would have cared.
PG Kidd #2
SG Terry #10 (bench another #10 with Jones)
SF Howard #29 (a #3 as a backup with Stackhouse)
PF Nowitzki #9 (a #5 as a backup with Juwan Howard)
C Dampier #10
Oh, and you failed to mention that RLEC was a #3 pick, so we have at least 9 ;-)
Coach, I promise I wasn't running hard ...
Curious about Travis
Regarding PF, considering the physical size of his father, I’m wondering if any of you know if Travis’ dad was slender in his early 20s. Is it likely that Travis will be seriously bulking up in say another 5 years?
"There's something in my library to offend everybody" Washington Coalition Against Censorship
so what I am hearing is
right now, in thinking about trades… blake, sergio and frye are quite likely to get dealt
by PippenAintEasy on Jul 12, 2008 11:57 AM PDT reply actions
Who are you hearing that from?
Blake is the starting PG right now, and probably will be at start of season.
Frye is a great fit with the second unit.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
what I meant was
from the comments on this post, blake and sergio dont fit anything this organization has going on past the next all-star break
by PippenAintEasy on Jul 12, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
and
apparently ike is some beast with toughness, which is exactly what this team needs, which frye will never give
by PippenAintEasy on Jul 12, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think there will be many trades this year...
............................... with the probable exception of Sergio, who will be dealt by the trade deadline.
t
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
Who are the starting five in the 2009-10 NBA Finals?
Roy-LMA-Oden, obviously…. the other 2 spots?
by PippenAintEasy on Jul 12, 2008 11:59 AM PDT reply actions
Bayless at PG
SF unknown, we have three players who could be the starting SF (though Travis is likely to remain 6th man), but we may upgrade next summer.
One other possibility—a sign and trade (involving Bayless, a forward, and maybe a draft pick) for Deron Williams.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
so maybe, but i doubt
the starters in the finals for 2009-10 are:
1) deron williams
2) b-roy
3) Batum
4) LMA
5) Oden
6/7/8) trout/rudy/pryz
bayless out, martell out, next years first round pick and the dozen 2nd round picks out
by PippenAintEasy on Jul 12, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll tell you what I think
I think that Martell is going to step up his game and be extended, and one of Frye or Diogu will win a place as backup PF and be extended. My money is still on Channing. Diogu may be extended if he’s willing to sign for cheap, or traded for a future draft pick, otherwise they’ll just renounce him.
And those extensions will cut into the cap space, they’ll keep Blake and Travis, which cuts it further, and we won’t make any major moves next summer except to lock up the guys we have. Paul Allen saves a lot of money in 09-10, but pays it back with interest in the years to come.
That’s what I think will happen. And it will be Bayless and Webster starting along with the Big Three. Travis and Rudy will come off the bench and wreak havoc in a second unit anchored by Pryz and Channing. The second string PG is still open between Sergio, Koponen, and Blake—probably Blake, but Koponen may surpass him by 2010-11.
And we’ll win our first championship in 2010 or 2011, and win at least three more. And when people talk about the greatest ever teams, they’ll mention Russell’s Celtics, Kareem’s Lakers, Jordan’s Bulls, and maybe Duncan’s Spurs, but they won’t be able to figure out who to name this team after, because we’ll hit people so hard from so many directions, and they’ll call us Pritchard’s Blazers, or McMillan’s Blazers.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
blake will not be kept
and I really dont know how rudy and travis will work together. They are both great players coming off of a bench. What will make them so compatible?
by PippenAintEasy on Jul 12, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Ike
is definitely grabbing one of those last spots, unless his injury worsens. His game is something we need bad and was sorely missing at times last year.
Nate has a problem
Too much talent,I feel bad for ya Sarge.I see Fin and Batum both on next years roster,the Question is how to get them as much experience as posibble between now and then.
by southern oregon on Jul 12, 2008 2:58 PM PDT reply actions
We could get Finley, then we have both experience and potential for our Fins ;-)
Coach, I promise I wasn't running hard ...
I think players can come and go
from reserve. There are some restrictions, but it can be used as the situation changes.
They consider themselves forward thinking in Portland from what friends tell me. Apparently they have this global warming issue handled. They’ve found ways to end your life as a profit making venture. And they’re hip to counter culture icons.
by NBA Observer on Jun 27, 2008
Euros playing in the D league
I don’t think Nate and KP want that to happen. Its hard enough to adjust to a different country and team, then to be sent to Idaho for a few weeks to play against low level competition, well, imo it doesn’t sound like the best situation. Last year Sergio seemed like a good candidate to be sent to the D-league, but it never happened. I wonder if the Blazer’s management feels like it is more important to get accustom with the coaches and culture than to get some playing time.
Joel Freeland=Stud
PetKo's Problem
Is that we need to sign him to a rookie-scale deal now or else he’ll take a long-term deal in Europe and we won’t get him until much later in his career. It would be a drag to sign him and make him play in Idaho, but that’s better than having to pay some ridiculous buyout in four years.
I agree
And if he goes to Europe and turns out to be good good, like really good, then he’ll be making tons of Euros, and all we can offer is rookie scale. No good. It’s far better to a) sign him if we can or b) trade him for a future pick.
Because if he goes to Europe, he’ll either not be good enough to be worth anything, or possibly too good=rich to want to come here for peanuts.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
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