Free Agents: A Compilation of Culture-Fitting Candidates
I thoroughly enjoyed CoRupt's fanpost on free agents, and I thought it'd be interesting to look at some of the guys who are in our age bracket that might fit on our team. So here's a look at the 2004 and 2005 draft class (obviously not available really until next year). I'm not sure at this point who fits our team best out of these guys (if any), but it's something to look at as we await summer league.
2004 DRAFTEES
Emeka Okafor, FC, Charlotte Bobcats
Age: 25
PER: 17.46
Comparables: Rasheed Wallace ($13.7 M), Zach Randolph ($16.0 M), Rashard Lewis ($20.5 M), Chris Wilcox ($6.8 M), Lamar Odom ($14.6 M), Chris Kaman ($10.9 M), Tyson Chandler ($11.4 M)
Okafor’s value is hard to gauge. He likes power forward, but he ends up playing center on a Bobcats team lacking height. Okafor is a double-double guy with decent (but not great) offensive skills. Okafor turned down a five-year, $60 million contract last summer, but that’s right in line with his value. I actually think he deserves slightly less. As an aside, my friend Matt deemed Okafor the "Bill Russell of the future," while I deemed Dwight Howard the "Patrick Ewing of the future." This is the same friend of mine who likes the Lions (poor guy), and Mike VIck fan who bought a Vick jersey just weeks before Vick was busted for dog fighting. He's the guy you feel sorry for at night. And day. And all the time.
Value: $10 M - $12 M per year
Ben Gordon, SG, Chicago Bulls
Age: 25
PER: 16.52
Comparables: Richard Hamilton ($11.0 M), Mike Dunleavy ($9.8 M), Joe Johnson ($14.6 M), Mike Miller ($9.4 M), Jamal Crawford ($9.4 M), Leandro Barbosa ($6.6 M)
Last summer, Gordon turned down an extension worth $50 million over five years, which was fairly fair in my opinion. Gordon is what we hope Bayless doesn't become--a 6'3 shooting guard who can't really play point. He has trouble covering bigger off guards on the defensive end. He’s a solid scorer, but that's about it. Obviously, he's not as good as some of guys on the above list, like Hamilton. I think if Rip is pulling in 11.0 M, then you gotta' put Gordon at a few mil less than that for sure.
Value: $8.0 - $9.0 M per year
Josh Childress, SF, Atlanta Hawks
Age: 25
PER: 17.84
Comparables: Josh Howard ($10.9 M), Ron Artest ($8.5 M), Hedo Turkoglu ($6.9 M), Gerald Wallace ($9.5 M)
Childress continues to fly under the radar for three main reasons: 1) he plays with Josh Smith, 2) he comes off the bench and 3) he’s a jack of all trades and a master of none. He's kind of like Travis--comes off the bench, doesn't play a full 38, 40 minutes, but is solid while he's in (By the way, I'd take Travis>Josh any day).
Value: $7.5 M - $8.5 M per year
Luol Deng, SF, Chicago Bulls
Age: 23
PER: 17.07
Comparables: Josh Howard ($10.9 M), Ron Artest ($8.5 M), Hedo Turkoglu ($6.9 M), Gerald Wallace ($9.5 M), Richard Jefferson ($14.1 M)
Like Gordon, Deng turned down a five-year extension worth $50 million, which I think turned out to be a mistake. He didn't have a career year last year or anything, and you really gotta' wonder what his future with the team is. With his name coming up in all the Kobe trade talk and whatnot, I don't see him sticking around. What is working for him is that at 23, he’s younger than most of the guys on this list, so there is still a lot of upside in his game.
Value: $10.0 M - $11.0 M per year
Andre Iguodala, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 24
PER: 19.05
Comparables: Paul Pierce ($19.8 M), Josh Howard ($10.9 M), Ron Artest ($8.5 M), Hedo Turkoglu ($6.9 M), Gerald Wallace ($9.5 M), Richard Jefferson ($14.1 M)
Iggy gets jiggy every once in a while and stuffs the stat sheet for a mediocre teambut still, the dude is the Al Jefferson of the Sixers, in my opinion. He gets his stats, but he's a number 2 guy. He just wasn't born to lead, although he did have a sweet dunk in the dunk contest one year. With that said, I was impressed with their push late last season. Cheeks is doin' a good job over there, and it'll be interesting to see what Brand does.
Value: $13.0 M - $14.0 M per year
Andris Biedrins, C, Golden State Warriors
Age: 22
PER: 19.18
Comparables: Chris Kaman ($10.9 M), Tyson Chandler ($11.4 M)
Biedrins’ value is hard to gauge. The Warriors play at a very high pace so his numbers (about 10 and 10) are a little higher than they would be on most teams. He’s not a guy you can give the ball to on the block and expect him to score. He’s more like Chandler in that he’s going to get his points off put backs, which is why his FG% is so high. He’s young, like Deng, which gives him a little leeway, but you have to wonder if the guy is ever going to beef up and have a bankable move (I think bankable moves, plural, would be a pipedream for this guy).
Value: $6.5 M - $7 M per yea
Josh Smith, F, Atlanta Hawks
Age: 22
PER: 19.08
Comparables: David West ($9.1 M), Antwan Jamison ($12.5 M), Travis Outlaw ($4.0 M)
Teams luuuvvv Joshy. He’s just 22 and is already a solid forward in the league. The Hawks have said they will match any offer... Is he worth it? Barring a max contract, I would say he is. His FG% (about 46%) isn’t great for a guy who gets a lot of dunks, but you still can't argue with his production. Speaking of dunks, from the Dunk Contest archive. The Hawks lowballed him last summer and he said, "Nah--I want to earn it." (Kidding). He turned it down and will likely make quite a bit more when he finally does sign.
Value: $14.0 M - $16.0 M per year
2005 Draftees
Alright, let's check out some of the 2005 dudes and see how they check out.
UPDATE via SpyderRyder: Bogut is gone! Five years @ 72 million. A little high in my opinion (I thought 9 mil per year was his ceiling), but that shows you what I know. Mortimer has a good comment on why he thinks Bogut is worth the 12+ M a year. But then again, Mortimer and good comments are nothing new.
Andrew Bogut, C, Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 23
PER: 17.55
Comparables: Chris Kaman ($10.9 M), Tyson Chandler ($11.4 M), Brad Miller ($11.8 M)
The market for skilled seven-footers is always strong, but ehh...calling this guy skilled would be a stretch. He was starting to do better late in the season last year....but I honestly can't see the Australian bust doing much for anyone. Click here to check out all of Boguts sick highlights. Ok, that was on purpose--the dude has no highlights. But seriously, if there is one highlight of Bogut's career, it's this free throw.
Value: $7.0 M - $9.0 M per year
Marvin Williams, F, Atlanta Hawks
Age: 22
PER: 14.53
Comparables: Tayshaun Prince ($10.3 M), Andres Nocioni ($7.6 M), Al Harrington ($9.6 M), Nick Collison ($6.4 M), Drew Gooden ($7.1 M)
Williams was the #2 pick in the ’05 draft and at 22, he still has a lot of upside. He really wouldn't fit our team, as he has a horrible outside shot, something that we need to alleviate the double teams that might come Greg, LMA's, or Brandon's way.
Value: $6.5 M - $7.5 M per year
Raymond Felton, PG, Charlotte Bobcats
Age: 24
PER: 13.85
Comparables: Derek Fisher ($4.9 M), Jameer Nelson ($6.7 M), Beno Udrih ($6.0 M)
Given the Bobcats’ decision to draft D.J. Augustin, Felton’s future is unsure. I think it was Mike Barrett who was very complimentary of Felton earlier this year, but ehh, after Bayless, Felton probably isn't needed.
Value: $5.0 M - $5.5 M per year
Andrew Bynum, C, Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 20
PER: 22.60
Comparables: Al Jefferson ($13.0 M), Dwight Howard ($15.8 M), Chris Kaman ($10.9 M), Yao Ming ($16.4 M)
What’s Bynum worth? It’s tough to figure considering he’s recovering from a knee injury. The Lakers made it to the Finals without him...how much are they willing to shell out for him, knowing they're a championship caliber team without him?
Value: $12.0 M - $13.0 M per year
Danny Granger, SF, Indiana Pacers
Age: 25
PER: 16.76
Comparables: Josh Howard ($10.9 M), Ron Artest ($8.5 M), Hedo Turkoglu ($6.9 M), Gerald Wallace ($9.5 M), Richard Jefferson ($14.1 M)
Granger is old for his class, so it is more likely that he’s closer to "topping out" than some of the other guys on this list. Bear in mind he's playing for the Pacers, so he's a lot higher on the priority list for them scoring wise than he would be on a real team.
Value: $11.0 M - $12.0 M per year
Hakim Warrick, F, Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 25
PER: 16.28
Comparables: Chris Wilcox ($6.8 M), Lamar Odom ($14.6 M), Nick Collison ($6.4 M), Al Harrington ($9.6 M)
Warrick is also old for his class so he has less upside than some other players on this list. He also played limited minutes this season, so there’s no guarantee that his production would continue with more playing time. As an aside, I think I've played Xbox with this guy before, along with Mike Conley, aka MikeMoney21.
Value: $7.0 M - $7.5 M per year
Nate Robinson, G, New York Knicks
Age: 24
PER: 15.38
Comparables: Jameer Nelson ($6.7 M), Beno Udrih ($6.0 M)
Robinson is a point guard that doesn’t pass the ball very well, so is unclear if he’s going to fit in Mike D’Antoni’s system. It’ll be interesting to see what the Knicks do, as he's one of their better players (ehh..guess that's not saying much though). He sure did have a sweet game against us this season though. Man! That dude was lights out! If you've got the time, watch Robinson introduce himself to Yao Ming. This could only have been better with a Mutumbo finger wag.
Value: $6.5 M - $7.0 M per year
David Lee, F, New York Knicks
Age: 25
PER: 18.01
Comparables: Shane Battier ($6.9 M), Chris Wilcox ($6.8 M), Lamar Odom ($14.6 M)
Lee is a double-double guy that gets most of his numbers by doing the little things. He is highly coveted around the league and his name comes up all the time in trade rumors involving the Knicks. Since he’s a “glue-guy,” I think his best comparable is Battier, and Lee’s value is in that range (though he is more productive).
Value: $8.5 M - $9.5 M per year
Monta Ellis, G, Golden State Warriors
Age: 22
PER: 19.01
Comparables: Kevin Martin ($11.1 M), Michael Redd ($17.1 M), Jason Richardson ($13.3 M)
Since he was a second round pick, he’s a 2005 draftee who is a restricted free agent this summer. Like Josh Smith, Ellis is a young player who has already performing extremely well. He's short, which is usually bad for SG, but in Nellieball it isn't such a hinderance to him. He has the potential to play some point guard, but thus far he’s been more of a finisher than a distributor.
Value: $11.5 M - $12.5 M per year
Alright, that's it. Like I said, who knows which of these guys, if any, are right for us. Our roster is so stacked right now, it's scary. Very scary.
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Childress or Granger
Josh Smith is going to be locked up, but maybe that will leave out Childress to be signed. If we’re going to sign anyone [and I don’t think we are], I’d want it to be Childress.
With that many Wildcats, you’d think Pritchard was from Arizona.
On Granger; No way we can sign him, but I soooo wish. Man’s got serious talent.
Kevin Pritchard is a 4.0 Draft Day Student
I'll just rec this now...
well done, sir.
This post had some real TLC put into it.
Playing basketball... is like playing poker while running on a treadmill at full speed with people swinging a Louisville Slugger at you. -Dave on 95.5 The Game
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jul 11, 2008 12:23 AM PDT reply actions
I don't think KP will even consider signing a single one of these
Very nicely constructed fanpost. It was very easy on the eyes.
I Rec It Now..
to read it later. Even a quick scroll says “well done”.
"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan
Bogut is gone
5yr/$72.5mill, yeah that is a lot for a guy who has not done much IMO. Okafor and Smith should be locked up soon as both are garnering interest from LAC and are restricted so if anyone signs them they will either be with that team or will stay with their original teams, with the new extended contract.
I just heard that on Around the Horn last night....
Will update that now
How do I set my laser printer to stun?
by prezofdeath on Jul 11, 2008 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions
A quick run through the list
Okafor: Will either move this year (LAC?) or will be locked up by his team for too much mula
Gordon: Like you said, not what we really want
Childress: I always liked him, and he is more of a 3/2 than a 3/4 like Outlaw. If Smith stays, he is easier to get
Deng: People always talk about his talent, but he hasn’t demonstrated much for the kind of money he wants
Iguodala: Locked up in Philly if the Elton Brand deal shall have any meaning
Biedrins: Stays in GS, nobody wants to give him the 5 years 50 million he would like
Smith: ATL will have trouble matching some offers this year. Anyway, somebody will give him way too much money. This year’s Rashard Lewis
Bogut: Locked up above market value
Williams: Meh. And do we really want another guy that suffers from a “Sorry that I am not Chris Paul” draft trauma
Felton: Maybe as a replacement for Blake? But probably not our future starter
Bynum: Will be locked up in LA
Granger: Bring him on. Unfortunately that possibility looked better before the O’Neal deal that gave Indiana an expiring contract to create cap space
Warrick: Some spectacular scenes, but not very consistent
Robinson: People just love that such a tiny guy can jump so high. Not much more.
Lee: I wouldn’t offer very much for him. And the Knicks want to package him with horrible contracts, or not move him at all. Currently underpaid, but in NY he could soon be the opposite
Ellis: If GS can’t keep him they have no more team / fans. So they will give him too much.
Coach, I promise I wasn't running hard ...
I couldn't disagree more with your take on Josh Smith
Listen, I know as well as the next guy that Josh Smith is not a superstar-money player. If you max him out you get what you deserve. But on the right team this guy could be a major difference maker.
Comparing him to Rashard Lewis is really doing him a disservice. Smith brings you two things: Athleticism and quite possibly the most dynamic help defense in the league today (this is a toss-up between him and D Howard, but Smith is surprisingly more patient with his post D and his ability to block shots is more consistent. Howard tends to foul a lot more). He doesn’t have a jump shot and it really doesn’t matter because it’s not a crucial part of his game. All I know is he has all the rebounding and defensive prowess Ben Wallace had in 2004 without being a completely impotent offensive force. Yes, his post moves are rudimentary and nothing to crow about, but about 25% of the time he can make his own shot and get a bucket. Not bad for such a young player. Which is the key: this guy is going to get better—a scary thought.
Lewis, on the other hand, plays matador defense and can’t get his own shot off to save his life. If not for the fact he was playing with such a dynamic low-post presence he would already be Antoine Walker 2.0. Only the memory of a time and place when he had game prohibit us from noticing that the off-the-dribble attack of Hedo Turkoglu looked like the rebirth of George Gervin compared to the rusty kneecaps of Rashard. Lewis reminds me most of Jason Kapono, only with a funkier J. And the major difference between him and Smith? J-smoove is on a meteoric career path as far as the progression of his skills. Rashard’s future looks more like an asteroid breaking into millions of pieces as it crashes helplessly into the earth.
BLZRS FRVR
by nightbluefruit on Jul 11, 2008 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Williams is on the Olympic Team.
I don’t think he suffers from anything.
Koponen - PG of the future. Book it.
by Blazerholic on Jul 11, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Think he means
Marvin Williams.
Unless it was a funny, and I like funnies, so pretend I didn’t say anything.
Morti-mer
I just got confused by the Chris Paul reference.
Although you may still find that funny…
Koponen - PG of the future. Book it.
couple points
Your take on Iggy is surprising. He was the a huge part of a very impressive run which included giving the Pistons a real run for their money in the playoffs.
Your take on Bogut is the same as everyone else who I was arguing with yesterday. I’ll point you to that discussion.
http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/7/10/568576/junk-drawer-july-10th-2008#7297209
Josh Childress> Travis (for now at least). You seem to like PER. Childress has Travis out-PER’d by a significant margin (17.84 to 15.79) and is a better defender.
I think you underrate Biedrins. He’s a tremendously efficient player and a great rebounder.
Boomshakalaka
I gotta go with Jksnake99...
Is Bogut the franchise center you want with a #1 pick? No, of course not. But is he pretty good, especially when compared to most centers these days? Yeah! He’s good offensively and can block shots. He isn’t particularly tough, I think he’s kinda full of himself sometimes, but he’s a good player and the going rate for a good center is 12 million a year (sounds crazy, but is true).
Bogut has gotten crap from me, but only cause he was a #1 pick. You take that away from him, and he’s a good center. He’s kinda like how I remember Brad Daugherty… #1 pick, good not great center, you like him fine but he isn’t a franchise player. Bogut won’t be a 20/10 guy, I’d think, but he’ll be GOOD in a time when most centers are BAD.
Besides the obvious choices like Dwight Howard or a Healthy Yao, Bogut is one of the best of the 2nd tier star centers. I think only a healthy and focused Chris Kaman or Marcus Camby is better…
Bogut is goofy, but he isn’t a bad player at all.
Biedrins seems to know what he is in the game for, and that’s rebounds and putbacks, and I like that. He really has no post moves whatsoever, and he really isn’t a good defender (and isn’t very strong at all) but he is a good shotblocker because of his arms and height and for a guy who no offense he has really good hands. We could only DREAM Jor-El Przybilla had hands like that.
His ceiling is still a Tyson Chandler type, but that isn’t nuthin’ to sneeze at. He needs a good pg (like perhaps Baron Davis) to be effective and give him the ball in easy dunking or alley-ooping range, and he needs to get a lot stronger like Chandler did. He’s very young though, and I think he’ll be a good-but-limited starting center someday soon.
I hate how he shoots, but Childress can do it all.
Mortimer
Ehh...a little, but not too much
You seem to like PER
It’s just an easy way to get an idea of what’s going on. Plus, I already had some of the ages and PER numbers from when I did my PG and SG analysis a while back. I’ll let your Childress>Outlaw slide for now, but watch your step.
Whoops, Morty just posted. Better read that before I say anything else…
How do I set my laser printer to stun?
by prezofdeath on Jul 11, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Haha
I didn’t address the Childress over Trout thing really, but I like Trout’s scoring off the bench still. Childress is DEFINITELY a much more complete player, and he’s a good lanky defender. He does it all; steals, blocks, defense, runs the floor, just isn’t a good shooter.
For now, I like Webster and Outlaw’s shooting. I hope Webster can become a better defender, but Childress would be a big help to a playoff.championship roster. You don’t gotta compensate for him.
Mortimer
Yeh, I'm a bit of a homer on this one
I think they’re pretty comparable. But Travis has the ability to be the leader if he needs to be (comes in great with the second unit, flourishes under pressure), but if he is called to just blend in and shoot the 3, he can do that too, and people have to respect him and give him space or he drives by and stuffs it on them (ala Pau Gasol and Rodney Carney).
Yes, Childress plays better defense. He gets the steals. He gets the blocks. But I love Travis for his scoring ability and what he means to this team, both as a white unit leader and as a late game finisher.
How do I set my laser printer to stun?
by prezofdeath on Jul 11, 2008 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
"isn't a good shooter"
While Childress’ shot is hideous, he’s a tremendously efficient shooter. He leads all SFs in true shooting percentage (which takes into account the value of 3 pointers and FTs).
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=tsp&pos=sf&seasonType=2
He’s also not a bad 3 pt shooter- checking in at 36.1% for his career (36.7% last year), compared with Trout’s 39.6% mark last year (which he still has to prove was not a fluke- he’s at 33.8% for his career) and Web’s 37.3% career and 38.8% last year.
In other words, Childress is a little worse (but not much) from 3 pt land, but is better than both of the Blazers in literally every other facet of the game.
Boomshakalaka
Agree.
It would be hard to argue that Otlaw is better than Childress. Outlaw has more potential, but I think Childress might be twice as valuable. The guy has basketball IQ up the wazoo. He ran the offense a lot when Bibby was on the bench. Childress is the 9th most efficient SF in the league, Outlaw is 20th. Childress is a top 15 defender for his position, Outlaw isn’t even a top 50 defender. I would trade Outlaw for Childress straight up. Childress gave Boston fits and would add much needed defense to our bench (or starting line-up). With Rudy, Bayless, and Frye coming off the bench I don’t really see why we need another guy throwing up jump shots.
If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley
by Winchester on Jul 11, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, but can Childress catch fish like Travis can? I don't think so.
How do I set my laser printer to stun?
#25
Hey Win, is your signature in reference to Shaq’s basketball to Przybilla’s face?
"Besides, AnntheFan will be here any minute to #25 you." T Darkstar
It should be.
If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley
Also, concerning the PERs
“I already had some of the ages and PER numbers from when I did my PG and SG analysis a while back”
is accurate, but I should mention that , though I gave the man credit back in those articles, I guess I ought to do so again, since I’m once again using his numbers. The ages and PERs are courtesy of John Paulsen’s website/blog…so props to him for providing those numbers so I didn’t have to go to ESPN to get them all.
How do I set my laser printer to stun?
by prezofdeath on Jul 11, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Seriously, dude....
.... you should get paid for work like this from ESPN.com! Props on your research. However, you should now favor us with your conclusions - which, if any, of these guys is good for us, and who should we give up for him? (It should be noted that in his brief reign, and despite his own repeated personal statements of his desires, KP has yet to swing any signficant deal outside the draft - other than salary dumping.)
Personally, I have only one player comment—on Nate the Great: How can you not like a guy who is capable of missing a dozen dunks in a row and still win the Slam Dunk Contest with a near-perfect score! Only in the NBA, where amazing @?!#$% happens!
That was a farce
Least exciting dunk contest ever. I can’t believe Iggy lost. What a travesty. Watching nate boink dunk after dunk just made me hate U-dub even more.
BLZRS FRVR
by nightbluefruit on Jul 11, 2008 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
I would love to work for ESPN
But seriously, who wouldn’t? There’s so many guys out there putting out stuff like this. It’s just crazy. Sports writing is almost like being an actor these days—you gotta’ have connections or be really really good.
How do I set my laser printer to stun?
by prezofdeath on Jul 11, 2008 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
You know,
you probably would have been safe putting D-Will’s name on the 2005 list, since he hasn’t signed an extension yet with Utah and is not certain about extending his contract.
great list, but of course incomplete
as all of the veteran FA’s names are missing. Both those definitie and possible.
It may not be necessary to point out that cap-space (and portland should have plenty) can be used just as effectively in trades as in FA signings.
And it would seem that KP is quite capable of working up trades, so don’t be surprised if he uses cap-space for a major trade rather then a signing.
Keep in mind that space is far superior to an expiring contract for a trading partner. Not only does a team gain IMMEDIATE salary and cap relief, but they also gain a Traded Player Exception as well. A team right around the salary cap could trade a 13 million/yr contract to portland for cap space and draft pick, and they would suddenly have 13 million in cap-space that they could then use for a FA signing or another trade. Plus they would still have a 13 million TPE to use afterwards. Having cap-space gives a GM incredible leverage, and in the hands of a GM like KP, the sky’s the limit.
Exactly
To try and figure out what KPs thinking, you’d have to do an analysis of every player in the league it seems. And you’d still have no idea.
How do I set my laser printer to stun?
by prezofdeath on Jul 12, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Great post
We dont need any of these guys. What do you see in your crystal ball next year?
by southern oregon on Jul 12, 2008 3:14 PM PDT reply actions
Ok.
What do you see in your Vince Lombardi trophy next year?
Mortimer: "It’ll be so nice I’ll need microfracture—ON MY WEINER."
by 92wastheyear on Jul 13, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Smith, Granger, Lee, or Childress. In that order.
Both Teams Played Hard
Both Teams Played Hard
Both Teams Played Hard
by Kelsoballa on Jul 13, 2008 3:14 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

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