McMillan and our Success
by jaywalker on Jun 29, 2008 1:26 PM PDT
24 comments
This post (my first) muses about some of the threads since the 2008 NBA draft, viz., how many wins should we expect for Portland next season, who will be on the Black and who on the White units, etc.
All Blazer fans celebrate the creativity of our general manager, and everyone delights in the talent of our players and depth of our roster, but the discussion about the future thus far lacks any consideration of the role Coach McMillan played in the success of our Trailblazers last season.
Last season, most experts predicted the Blazers to win around 25 or 30 games. This might be explained that, in the NBA, experience usually trumps untested raw talent. We may believe that in perhaps a majority of games last season the Blazers fielded a more talented rosters than opponents, but everyone expected that wily veterans would outfox our naive youngsters more often than not.
But a funny thing happened to that projected 25 win season; the Blazers achieved 25 wins already by the All-Star break. While Roy and Outlaw achieved breakout seasons, while Aldridge was acknowledged as the third most improved player in the league, while James Jones had a career year, and while many of the other pups grew by leaps and bounds, it seems to me McMillan must be given credit for putting the players in a position to succeed. When playing against Utah's Foul Ball defense, body checking anyone who dared to come near the paint, can you think of a better strategy than letting Webster go crazy from behind the arc? Can you think of a better use of matchups than McMillan created for the San Francisco and L*ker games we won? Can you think of a better defender against Denver's Carmelo Anthony than Roy in the closing seconds of the thriller in December? Whose idea was it to transform Outlaw into Mr. Fourth Quarter coming off the bench? What about that zone defense during The Streak? While James Jones launched daggers that drained the opposition of all hope, it was Coach McMillan who set the timing for bringing Jones to work his magic. At the close of the regular season the Wall Street Journal reported that the Portland Trailblazers were by far the league's most effective team coming out of timeouts. While the players executed, the plan was Coach McMillan's.
it is easy to multiply these examples ad nauseam. Given the historical precedents, it is difficult to comprehend how the players could by themselves have accounted for a win total much above the low 30's, in spite of the roster's talent. I cannot think of any other explanation for 41 wins than Coach McMillan's leadership, his game strategy, his tactics, his ability to create matchup problems for the other team that limited exposure of our own weaknesses, and his innovation of 5 man combinations that opposing coaches would never see coming until it was too late. I cannot see how his calls did not result in 5 to 10 more wins that we could rightfully expect, and more wins in close games than we could rightfully hope for. He took a talented but inexperienced roster of players who did not yet understand how to defend, and deployed his assets in a way that compensated for their collective inexperience and that maximized their talent. It took half the season for opposing teams to respond. I in no way want to diminish the accomplishments of the players, but Coach McMillan put them in a position to succeed.
If this analysis is not entirely off-base, it is premature to handicap next season's starting lineups. Coach McMillan is likely to continue to innovating lineups a least until the players are judged experienced, to learn who plays well with whom, what combinations work best in what situations, give the players an opportunity to mesh their styles, and, most of all, the maximize the talent available on the Blazer's bench while minimizing its weaknesses. Assuming no more roster changes (a big assumption), we should expect Roy and Blake to start when experience is THE key to the game, but not necessarily otherwise; perhaps Bayliss in place of Blake when the opposing team fields a super-quick opposing point guard to defend. Based on the evaluation of the experts alone, I think we might expect Fernandez to become Roy's most frequent back court partner at the start of games. Can you imagine a small-ball back court of Bayliss, Fernandez, and Roy? We will undoubtedly see it. We should expect Diogu to back up Aldridge when we want to respond to a Utah or Houston's power game with power, and Frye when finesse works better. Outlaw will play small forward when we need points, and Webster or Batum when we need defense. 82games.com had blake-jack-roy-outlaw-aldridge as the league's third most effective 5 man unit last season. What will it be next? Coach McMillan will find out.
I think we can attribute 5 to 10 "extra" wins from the recently ended season to his leadership. Perhaps we might expect his strategy and tactics to assume a less central device for racking up extra wins once the roster learns how to play in the NBA, but there is no reason to believe Coach McMillan's importance to inflating our win column will diminish before then.
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Nice post
Keep up the good work
GO says " Sir, you fornicated vertically…observe the consequences!
by 92wastheyear on Jun 29, 2008 2:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the mcmillan/bayless relationship
will be very interesting to watch develop. mcmillan always stood behind jack and always seemed higher on jack than anyone else. much of jack’s success, i think even he would admit, is attributable to mcmillan.
hopefully the same relationship forms with bayless. he has the chance to be something special. i think mcmillan will be a great influence.
"Honor Terry Porter." Email me with your TP stories and memories.
by Ben. on Jun 29, 2008 2:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
KP shaved his head
Oden...Aldridge...Roy.....THE REAL BIG THREE
Watch my brandon roy vid http://youtube.com/watch?v=RC3Byp4ID1E
by CroRupt on Jun 29, 2008 2:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Now that JJack is gone...
it’s only a matter of time before McMillan becomes the primary target of restless folks.
That would be a good poll: Now that Jack is gone, about which player/coach will you create fanposts demanding trading or firing?
We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 29, 2008 4:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
McMillan isnt a assistant coach for USA for nothing
why do you assume he will get fired? hes the best coach for us, gets along with the GM defensive minded, earn your spot rather that given i dont see how you can say that we would want him traded, sure some people were upset at decision he made through some games but thats almost every coach.
by CroRupt on Jun 29, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to be misunderstood...
I LOVE NATE, and believe him to be a terrific, more-than-qualified coach. As soon as Cheeks was fired, I was pining for McM.
But he took a lot of flack last year by posters on this site for… I don’t know what reason. I guess for only making our youngest-team-in-the-history-of-the-NBA a .500 club…
Stay tuned this season and you’ll see.
We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 29, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Style of play
This is what is comes down to
Were the Blazers a running team last year? Not so much. A lot of that is due to Jack (and Blake’s) inability to run a fast break, and Roy’s steady-as-she-goes pace. Now Jarrett is gone and Rudy/Bayless are here. Nate expects the Blazers to fastbreak more and take advantage of Outlaw, LMA and GO for easy transition baskets. Will Portland push the tempo and keep the accelerator down all next year? We’ll see. But running is a philosophy that is coach-implemented and coach-driven. Players get tired and will want to walk-it-up if they’re not well-conditioned and if they haven’t had it drilled it into their heads that “Hey! We’re gonna run and if you don’t wanna run at every opportunity you’re gonna be sitting by me!”
That’s one aspect
Another example of “style” is the coaching philosophy re: matchups. Will Nate substitute players to “match up” with the rival coach’s lineup, or will he dictate the matchups and force the other coach to match up to his squad? I expect Nate to emphasize defense and rebounding, because that will lead to fastbreaks. If the other coach plays a small lineup will Nate play his bigs, slow the game down and pound it in? Or will he play small ball with Roy at the 3 and Travis and the 4 (again)?
I don’t have time to go into more detail, but you get the point. The Blazer teams going forward will be the most complete and talented rosters that Nate has had the opportunity to coach in an NBA season. He will cement his legacy (good or bad) with if (and when and how many) championships his teams can win. Those are the expectations, not just of the fanbase but of observers from around the league. Here’s hoping he’s up to the challenge.
by two4larue on Jun 30, 2008 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the first half of the season, Nate was completely oblivious to low post play...
.................................... Never trust a point guard.
t
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
by timbo on Jun 30, 2008 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, I think you're right
that is going to be so annoying.
by Section323 on Jun 29, 2008 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They don't call him "Sarge" for nothing.
OK ZBo’ coined it but.
It still fits perfectly. Wanna be a true soldier? You gotta get out of boot camp first.
Crawl first, walk and then maybe you can run.
Yes Nate will let them run and run and run. But when the time is right, as a cohesive/collective organized unit. It will be devastating when the team matures and is ready to fly on its own. But first must come MATURITY. Nate will turn the keys over to BRoy, LMA & GO when the time is right, and that is coming sooner than you think. Like KP, in a few years Nate will simply only have to "tinker" with the model both are creating. Our big 3 will take it from there.
Like KP, I want Nate to be here for life. Basically because of the basic’s, it’s his way or the highway. That starts with dignity, discipline, class and respect. You don’t show that, you don’t get to play here. And Nate walks that talk everyday.
Sure the grass always looks greener, but folks 98% of the time it just plain isn’t greener over there. Like Dr. Jack was with Bill & Co., Nate is a perfect fit for our current "culture". Time will only tell us but I have a "golden gut" feeling that KP feels the same way about Nate. The players that KP amazingly continues to keep plucking out from the great B Ball wishing well of life? Haven’t they mostly all show the ability to grow and thrive under Nate’s watch. Coincidence you say? Look at the Sonics post Nate, didn’t these players look a whole lot better when Nate was there? I know Luke sure did.
Like Paul Allen and KP, KP and Nate have a similar unique and very productive relationship.
Like our young team, Nate is still a relatively young coach. They will all rise and ultimately mature together
Put me down for Nate (like Jerry Sloan), to be the next of a very small line of steady and secure head coaches position in professional sports. This (along with a few more parades down Broadway) is my wish for our proud city and its rapidly evolvng dream team that, if you’re very very lucky comes to a small town and it’s beloved team but once in a lifetime.
Hey JayWalker, nice post!
The Oden Era, Day 368
by Heymoe on Jun 29, 2008 4:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The sure to follow "10 reasons why Nate is not right"
are going to really get me annoyed.
I like saying the word annoyed.
The Oden Era, Day 368
by Heymoe on Jun 29, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It won't be from me...
Just to be sure, I’m not suggesting that at all, only musing that others will start up with those posts again.
We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 29, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It'll probably be from me...
... I think Nate’s great for younger players (hence the boot camp mentality) but I have my concerns about his overall coaching style long term. Your boot camp instructor typically doesn’t remain with you after you’re through boot camp.
Plus it seems wrong that everyone’s doing the “Oh I think Nate is great… anyone who doesn’t like him is just looking for a reason to complain.” It’s not just a reason to complain if you legitimately are unhappy with his coaching style. Sometimes, someone needs to bring reasonable opposing points up, not just to be complaining.
by Timmay! on Jun 30, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Timmay!!!
........................ TIMMAY!!!
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
by timbo on Jun 30, 2008 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post Jaywalker
What you said is completely on par. Love the “viz.” and “ad nauseam.” You sound very intelligent in your writing manner, and your solid content shines all the brighter with your brilliant word usage. I’d give this multiple recommendations if I could.
"Beards--they grow on you"
by prezofdeath on Jun 29, 2008 6:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Superb post, just superb
Yes, Nate is an outstanding coach, and I agree entirely that he found a way to get the most of this team. 5-10 more wins? At least.
We had one, that is correct, one good individual defender (who only played 1/2 a game on average), and he put together defensive schemes that made us an adequate defensive team. We had one, and only one, good rebounder (who only played 1/2 a game on average) and we had a rebound differential of approximately -1 per game.
He got guys like Channing and our guards to rebound. He knew when to give the ball to Travis. He knew how to get maximum mileage out of James Jones, who will probably not be as good for another team.
People who think Oden is going to foul out all the time are ignoring the fact that Nate will use defensive schemes to protect against that. People who think he won’t be that effective at first are ignoring the fact that Nate will use a system that will maximize his size and athleticism and not rely on skills that aren’t fully developed yet.
People who think Rudy will be slow to contribute forget that Nate will find roles for him that need less adjustments. Nate is a brilliant coach, and he’s going to be worth 5-10 extra wins this year again. The difference is that this year, he’ll have some talent to work with.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
by jscot on Jun 30, 2008 1:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Mac has 5 Rookies
Nate will have 5 rookies this year. 3 on the first two teams and Batum and likely Koponen on the third. I don’t know if this has ever happened before in the NBA. Young squads, sure, but 5 rookies in one year? So, he has his work cut out. Allen and KP, more than most, recognize this. They know that the only true vet Mac has on the first two teams is Blake. Which is why, by the way, Blake will not be traded regardless of speculation. He is, in some ways, at least for Mac, the most important player he has. Mac and his coaches will be working OT to gel the talent that they have. And this is clearly a process that will take some time. Oden will change the team when he’s in the game, but Pryz has his back, and Mac doesn’t, in the beginning, have to get 30 minutes a game from Oden. Bayless and Fernandez will need to pick up the 27 minutes a game that Jack was taking. And, gelling both into that role will also take some time. In fact, I suspect Mac will try to give Roy more breathers as well. The rookies have to learn a system, and within that system, learn how to fit their skills with the players around them. Patience and playing time are needed now. Mac, KP and Allen all know this.
Hopefully, the fans will know this as well. Granted, there will always be those that forget the fundamentals, get impatient, and spout off. But KP and Allen don’t listen to those types of fans. What they and Mac will be doing, is building a system for their talent, and they know that will take some time. It wouldn’t surprise me, in the beginning, to see ragged play and mistakes. By mid-season, however, after they’ve played 40 games or so, they’ll start to look like a unit.
by Eben Calder on Jun 30, 2008 5:58 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Nate's the right guy...
I think McMillan is the perfect fit for the Blazers. KP and management set the stage by getting us the right kind of players and Nate has groomed this VERY young team to be hard-working, professional and they certainly – at least in my opinion – play the game the way it should be played. Everyone seems to be on the same page and executing the plan lots of passing, no signs of selfishness….
Coaches, like players, will grow and adjust as their skills and capabilities evolve and Nate has given us no reason to think otherwise. Can you debate substitution patterns? Sure. Does he always make the right decision? Not at all. All that we can ask from him is that he learns and adjusts to his mistakes. He led a team in Seattle to a better than expected record and he did the same with our team. He doesn’t have a long history of coaching, but what we do have seems to portend good things to come. Nate is a great fit for our young team now. Will Nate be a good fit for a playoff or championship team? I think so, but only time will tell.
by ThereGoDaGame on Jun 30, 2008 3:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Coaches get the most blame
when a team does bad. And the least credit when they do good. I like Nate. As any Blazer fan does I sometimes think that I know what would have been the better substitution or better play call but PLEASE lets stand behind our choach and PLAYERS if this team doesn’t live up to the sometimes absurd expectations that we as fans have.
Give us another 10 wins this season Nate. Oden and crew will take it from there
by vullkem116 on Jun 30, 2008 5:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Development of youngin's one of Nates best traits...
Nate MacMillan is a great coach to have for this young team.
Mac10 was a baller, he had a pretty good career in the NBA and some of the teams young stars on this team are from Washington so no doubt were fans of Mac10 when he would nail daggers from all over three point line. Nate is legit to these young ballers and he has a commanding yet sincere demeanor that keeps these guys in-line and understanding that “this game” is a job that needs to be worked to succeed. Coach Nate has been able to keep order and positive momentum going in their learning and developing environment.
Kevin Pritchard is definitely a help with the confidence and attitude development of our young team, but Nate’s role as “THE SARGE” is like having that savvy veteran player on the team that many B-edgers feel Portland is missing. The maturity and professionalism that Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have brought to thier games this past season is a good start at the floor leadership that is needed to consistently compete and win at the NBA level, Nate provides the leadership in timeout hudles and Brandon Roy leads the execution on the floor. Together the Blazers are savvy” enough.
Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jarryd Bayless, Nicolas Batum, and Ike Diogu are additions to the talent pool on the court this season, so Coach Nate is going to have to work hard to keep the team chemistry, focus, and motivation on the up and up with 1/3rd of the roster being new. I cannot imagine Nate having a hard time with the caliber of player that is coming in, and feel that his infulence is going to continue to help maximize the talent that KP & Crew have been acquiring.
If we see Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw take another great step forward in their development, I will be even more impressed in Nate.
We are assuming that both LaMarcus and Brandon are going to improve as well, and it will be disappointing if either of them don’t. But it is the continued development of Webster and Outlaw that would really cement Nate as a premier coach of “turn around” teams. Think about it people, if Webster and Outlaw PAN OUT this organization will have successfully developed and reaped benefits of two Preps-to-Pros stars at the same time. That will be impressive.
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 30, 2008 10:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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