Rookie Rankings w/ Poll

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 11:16 AM PDT

David Thorpe of ESPN has this nugget. (Apologies if this has been posted, I searched for it, but there's a lot of action recently. If it has, maybe Dave will be kind enough to delete).

It's his ranking of the top 20 rookies heading into the season. A couple of things struck me as pretty interesting.

1. Oden isn't number one. He's number two, behind Beasley. Obviously I'm a huge homer, and I can actually see Beasley starting the year better than Oden, but... it's not how you start but how you finish, and I think Oden will be wrecking people by January.

2. Rudy Fernandez cracks in at #3. Up until now, I've been pretty high, then more reserved on what exactly he would do. Seeing Thorpe put him as high as three got me pretty high (not like that!) again.

3. Look at the top 20 and notice that 4, yes FOUR (!), are Portland Trail Blazers, as Bayless and Batum come in at #13 and #20. That's a whopping 20% of the top rookies just on our team!

Thoughts? Do you agree? Who's your '08-09 Rookie Of the Year? How freakin' stoked are you at what we have?

I can't wait!

Poll

Who wins '08-09 ROY (pre-preseason prediction)? No Co-ROY.

0 recs | Comment 38 comments

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

Beasley or Mayo win

volume scorers on bad teams have a huge advantage. They can jack up tons of shots with few repercussions. See 2007-08 Kevin Durant as exhibit A. Roy was the exception to the rule, helped in part by the fact that there was no volume rookie scorer elsewhere. ROY voters look at points per game as 90% of the equation it would seem.

Oden is on a balanced team where he will be a dominant presence by season’s end. But we don’t need to feed him 20 shots a game and jack up his scoring average. Plus, he’s got the “He’s not REALLY a rookie” factor working against him. I think for him to win, he’s gotta average about 17/10 or better with great defense on a playoff team. He’s certainly got the talent to do it, but I don’t think we need him to score that much.

If I had to place odds on the ROY:
1 Beasley
2 Mayo
3 Rose
4 Oden
5 Gordon
6 Love

do not equate this with who I think are the best rookies, this is about the ROY race.

by douglast on Jun 28, 2008 11:31 AM PDT 0 recs

Absolutely correct

Though I did vote for Oden simply because of the effect he will have on the team. I absolutely believe that he is going to live up to the expectations and send us deep into the playoffs. This guy has spent a year on the bench salivating to see some action, and he is stronger than ever. Call me a homer, but between Joel and Oden in the paint I don’t see how anyone is going to be able score inside on us. And now we have the scoring with Roy, LMA, Outlaw, Webs, Bayless, and (hopefully), Oden to dominate. Twenty years of watching the Blazers and I have never been this excited for the basketball season.

So we decided just to call ourselves "The Band". -Richard Manuel

by koyote on Jun 28, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up 0 recs

Throw in Rudy F for scoring as well

So we decided just to call ourselves "The Band". -Richard Manuel

by koyote on Jun 28, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up 0 recs

17/10 with great defense on a playoff team...

yes, yes, yes, and yes.

He’ll be 2nd in scoring for rookies, lead in rebounds, lead in blocks, and take us to the playoffs.

Also, I’m not so sure that Beasley goes off the way people think. Although Miami was terrible last year, they have Wade and Marion as their 1/2 go-to guys… to me that means Beasley might average closer to 15 ppg than people think. If that’s the case, Oden will also lead in scoring.

Mayo and the Grizz… no chance. He’ll not win just cuz he plays for the Grizz.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

Just so you know

Voters don’t care if the rookie helps his team make the playoffs. Carmelo was a volume scorer who helped the Nuggets make it to the playoffs for the first time in forever.

by Eventine on Jun 28, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

Ever hear of a guy name Lebron James?

Come on, there is no way Carmelo was going to beat out James! The guy had way too much hype, and oh yeah, he’s pretty good player too!

by RIP CITY on Jun 28, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up 0 recs

he might have one IF...

there wasn’t a dude named LeBron.

He never had a chance.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up 0 recs

won,

not one.

Stupid!

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 2:25 PM PDT up 0 recs

It made sense to me

I thought you meant one as in might have a rookie of the year trophy.

"Beards--they grow on you"

by prezofdeath on Jun 28, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up 0 recs

Oden is going to score 17 as the Blazers 4th option. I don't see it.

Portland’s deliberate offensive style won’t allow for Oden to score 17. I say something more like 11ppg and 12rpg for Oden.

by houseofprime on Jun 28, 2008 6:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

Let's do some math...

of the 12 rpg, how many are offensive? Somewhere between 2-4, right? He’s dunking those, making 4-8 ppg just off his O boards alone. You mean he’s only going to have one set run for him all game?

Here’s the thing… have you seen the guy? HE’S A BEAST! Yes, he’s a rookie who will get outfoxed now and again by a crafty vet… but who’s going to stop all 7’ 1”, 275 lbs. of him, all night long? And you know (or at least you should) that Nate will direct some of the offense for him… after all, that will open up LMA’s game, Webster’s game, Roy’s game, and pretty much anyone else who’s on the court with him.

BOOK IT.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 6:32 PM PDT up 0 recs

Also...

who is the 3rd option?

I guess it depends on who the starting lineup is. Here’s how I see it… Blake, Roy, Web, LMA, Oden. If that’s correct, I think he’s option 2b.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 6:34 PM PDT up 0 recs

I was thinking Outlaw since i think hes clearly the 3rd best scorer on their team.

by houseofprime on Jun 28, 2008 6:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

he had the 3rd highest scoring average...

but he played off the bench. There’s speculation about whether or not he will start.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 7:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

So your saying the Blazers will rely on a rookie coming off of microfracture surgey

for the bulk of their offense. I agree he will be a big impact right away on defense but it will take some time on the offensive end.

by houseofprime on Jun 28, 2008 7:01 PM PDT up 0 recs

I didn't say that at all.

He’s ambidextrous (his freshman year his shooting hand was in a cast and he played 2/3rds of the year with his left hand), he’s 7’1”, he’s 275 lbs., and he’s quick. There just aren’t a lot of people in the league who are physically capable of stopping that large of a man.

All that said, Roy and Aldridge will be the bulk of the offense. But Oden will get his.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 11:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

I voted for Mayo.

He’ll be a stat-bo.

"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08

by timbo on Jun 28, 2008 7:40 PM PDT up 0 recs

4 rookies this year.....wow

It is going to be a fun learning experience. Nate might go a little crazy though. Playing four guys with zero NBA experience could hurt our win loss percentage. I have faith we will get at least 41…just hope they learn fast.

President of the Petteri Koponen fan club.

by Sabonis4Ever on Jun 28, 2008 11:35 AM PDT 0 recs

Maybe 5 rookies (add Koponen); who will play?

How many rookies will get significant minutes with Nate at the helm?

After the Rudy-signing-euphoria we have Nate saying something like, “Well, he’s a rookie so we’ll have to see what he brings.”

Does Bayless pop to the top of the point guard depth chart? How open/fluid will the PG position be? Will Blake be that calming veteran presence that Nate loves now that Jack is gone? Does Sergio move up because he’s a “veteran” or plummet to the bottom of the depth chart? Will Koponen ever have a chance to show his skills?

We Blazer fans tend to see potential as already realized talent. Maybe Oden will have a great year (and I’d say 17/10 playing 30 min/game would be “great”), but I really wonder how much the other rookies will get to play.

It seems like there is a lot of potential with this current crop of rookies, but how much can we/Nate tolerate the inevitable rookie errors? Will Nate’s aversion to Spanish flash really limit Rudy’s minutes? Will Oden’s penchant for fouls (and injury) limit his production? (Appears as if Nate is not using the “Well, he’s just a rookie” line with Oden.) Is Bayless the “good enough” point/combo guard to complement Roy’s game or does Nate stick with Blake? (Again, thank God, Nate cannot default to Jack, but if Bayless doesn’t play is he the malcontent that Jack wasn’t?.) Do the “pure points” (Rodriquez and Koponen) ever see the light of day? Speaking of light of day, what are the odds a skinny, laid-back, 19-year-old Frenchman will see minutes at the SF?

I think we have a ton of potential talent, but I’d be surprised if anyone other than Oden gets enough of a free leash to make a run at ROY.

by vcubed on Jun 28, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Oden won't get the gaudy numbers for ROY

Remember, Durant won last year despite being a horrible team, even though Horford averaged a double double on a playoff (albeit 8th seed) team.

Now, if Oden has some KG-type of influence on the Blazers defense, then I could see him garnering some votes.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 28, 2008 12:17 PM PDT 0 recs

Oden will get some votes for sure

... but I think Beasley, Rose or Mayo will win.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 28, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up 0 recs

If the Blazers make the playoffs

That means they won 50 games or so, and everyone will say it’s cuz of Oden. If we improve that much, and Oden averages a 12 and 12 and 2 blocks, I could see him winning.

Horford was on a playoff team technically, but they weren’t even a .500 team and his 9.8/10 didn’t stand out as much as Durant’s near-20ppg. I think Horford will be a BEAST, but since both were on bad teams the voters go with the more famous and “nice” statted rookie.

Even if Beasley or Mayo score 20 a game, or Rose goes 13/7, Oden’s double double while throwing down monster dunks and ‘leading’ the team to over 50 wins will go a long way towards winning ROY. Plus, he’s famous and the media LOVE him.

It’s all conjecture of course, but Oden isn’t nearly as raw offensively as people think. He’s much, much further ahead of where Dwight Howard was offensively, PLUS he’s bigger/stronger/faster and on a better team where you can’t double him without getting in trouble. I think mid teens, 15 ppg and 12 rebounds and 2 blocks is well within his reach, simply because no one has the size or speed to stop him.

There’s a great to terrific chance his numbers won’t be as gaudy as Mayo or Beasley or Rose, but if the Blazers’ team finds really nice success in the tough western conference, it’ll likely be because of Oden’s massive presence down low, and his personality and team-game will garner him a lot of votes.

Honestly, I don’t mind if he loses out on ROY; I just want him healthy. By all accounts from Blazer scouts, he is already healthy and looking very, very good. His knee is stronger than before according to trainers and docs, his body fat is the same as before (he was at 5% or so), and he’s got the soft touch dominant post players need to go along with the power. I don’t got links; this is from the radio and stuff.

If he truly is healthy like they say, I think he has a really good chance to win. He’s such a beast…

I’d be totally fine with making the playoffs and killing the Lakers and letting Rose with the ROY, of course.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 29, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think mid teens, 15 ppg and 12 rebounds and 2 blocks is well within his reach, simply because no one has the size or speed to stop him.

Exactly.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 29, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

Oden in a landslide!

Come on guys! These are pure rookies with no playing experience in the NBA. Oden has been working out and travelling with the team for an entire year! He knows what is expected and he has had an additional year to work with professional coaches with no distractions of school and what not! This guy is going to be unbelievable!

As far as stats, they matter but team performance does too! If Oden has a big impact on defense and rebounding (HE WILL), and the team turns into a legit playoff contender(THEY WiLL), the decision makers will take that into consideration!

Again, all the basketball experts are saying last year and this year that Oden isn’t going to be a good center, they are saying he will be a “Hall of Fame” center that will bring multiple championships to the PTB!

As long as he stays healthy, watch the media hype he (and the Blazers) get right before the season starts! It’s going to be insane!

by RIP CITY on Jun 28, 2008 12:46 PM PDT 0 recs

Yup

Exactly

"Beards--they grow on you"

by prezofdeath on Jun 28, 2008 9:18 PM PDT up 0 recs

The important thing is

that Oden WILL BE AN ALL STAR this year, book it. So will Roy. That’s going to be so awesome, so freaking awesome.

myspace.com/marktwainindians

by mark twain on Jun 28, 2008 12:52 PM PDT 0 recs

Oden all star?

That’s asking an awful lot for a rookie, even though Greg isn’t your typical rookie. I can’t see it happening.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 28, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up 0 recs

He means that he'll play in the Freshman-Sophomore game, maybe...

.................................. THAT’S possible.

Oden is a very large dude that has played exactly one year of college ball. NBA All Star??? Hmmmmmmm.

"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08

by timbo on Jun 28, 2008 7:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

5 All Star Candidates

With the solid presence of Oden, slashing abilities of Rudy on Roy, ability to effectively dish to proven scorers LMA and Outlaw, we may find ourselves with multiple vote getters.

This team is athletic, creative, and all our players have the will to win. Assuming their chemistry is honed-in well by Nate, we will have a lot of teams worried about how to play us.

Oden- Both All-Star games
Roy- All Star
LMA- receives votes
Outlaw- receives votes
Rudy- Rookie All Star game
Bayless- Rookie All Star game

"It's amazing what a group of guys can accomplish when no one cares who gets credit."
President Harry S. Truman

by Dr. Deal on Jun 28, 2008 1:29 PM PDT 0 recs

question,

will oden play on the rookie all star team? or the sophomore team?

by premthegrem on Jun 28, 2008 3:11 PM PDT 0 recs

if he is good enough...

by premthegrem on Jun 28, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

He's considered by the NBA as a rookie...

therefore, a rookie.

And he’s definitely good enough, bro.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up 0 recs

Dang,

rookies are gonna kill sophomores then, if the projections about this class, rudy, and oden are true.

by premthegrem on Jun 28, 2008 5:54 PM PDT up 0 recs

He hasn't played an NBA game

So he’s a rookie, just like David Robinson who was drafted, but didn’t play until he finished his Naval committment.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 28, 2008 4:58 PM PDT up 0 recs

I dont necessarily by this line of reasoning

as Robinson was never collecting an nba paycheck during the year(s?) between his draft and rookie year. Larry Joe Legend also was drafted but did not play until the following year. Nick Collison is the only example I can think of a rookie who did not play all year due to injury but was still under contract. I am sure someone has a better one though.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 28, 2008 8:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

Naval commitment

David Robinson’s a better man than I…his naval commitment lasted forever!

I can only stare at my bellybutton for a few minutes before I cheat and look at something else

"Beards--they grow on you"

by prezofdeath on Jun 28, 2008 9:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

I voted Mayo

If something happens in Miami where Beasley is getting starter minutes then I will change my vote to Beasley

BTW I see Oden picking up a lot of silly fouls for a while. Mostly due to lack of respect for the refs. Besides his summer league performance, change of pace, restricted area, seeing more player and seeing athletic players close to his size, I do not have a really strong reason for this.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 28, 2008 8:35 PM PDT 0 recs

Oden

This will be the year that all of the Rookie of the Year voters will go with Oden, not only because he is the best player and putting up the best or close to the best stats, but because it gives them a chance to vote for a Rookie of the Year from a good team. That will give them the option of writing long articles about how they voted for the winner, and how everyone else who voted otherwise gets too caught up in the hype of stats (but not them!).

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jun 28, 2008 10:15 PM PDT 0 recs