I'm Really Glad We Got Bayless, but..

stop… the daft is done. We have our team for a while. at least till February. if anything that’s a trade involving Raef . be happy fishee . relax.

KP and others had Bayless as the 4th best “player” in the entire draft. Typically, someone slated there has always been an elite player, year to year. Bayless played for one year in a program that had injuries early, which left Arizona with the fact that their best two guards were their one and two point guards. Because Bayless was the better offensive player, they moved him to the SG position. Hence, the entire world began calling this young man with his one year of college – a “combo” guard. If there had been no injuries, he’d have been the point guard for Az, his assist total would have been higher, and that’s how the world would have perceived him. KP and Mac call him a point guard, however, because they recognize that he has the skills, but was used out of position. Further, they consider him the 2nd best point guard out of this draft.

Having said this, I’ll ask a different question. First, do you trade for a guard in the NBA (Harris) who was not the 4th best player, nor the second best point guard in his draft, when you just drafted a player who is considered both by management? Or, given you have a young team that will be developing at every position for several years, would you also give this elite player you’ve just drafted the time to develop along with your other young players?

Personally, I’d give Bayless the time to develop. And, I think that’s precisely what the Blazers intend to do. They’ll put Bayless at point and give him time to settle in and learn the position. And they’ll do that because they believe he has the skills to be better than Harris over time. Indeed, given how people view Rose, then being the 2nd best PG in this draft could very well mean that he would have been the top rated PG in other drafts, because their are only a handful of players like Rose, and they don’t come along every year.

So, I’d have to vote no. If he does have the skills to be better, it would be premature to not take the time to find out. Further, don’t forget that we also need the time to find out if if Outlaw/Webster can “own” the SF position. Only then will we know where we need to concentrate our fire-power for potential trades to improve the team in the late winter. We have 10 good players right now, plus the cap space and 4 #2’s in next years draft. On the third team, we have Diogu, Sergio, Koponen, Batum and LaFrentz. We have until February to let these players play before making any further moves.

Right now everyone is decompressing from the draft – and still talking trades. We’re doing that because no-one thought we could get a player rated as high as Bayless – given we drafted at 13. But we did. At the same time, we saw that the Blazers, by refusing repeated offers to trade Outlaw and Webster, decided to stand pat at SF and let Outlaw/Webster show whether or not they can own the SF position.

In the spring, given cap space and the need to sign contracts with Webster and Frye, you’’ ll see KP set down with both and settle those “before” the summer. At that time, he’ll make other moves if necessary.

I don’t think it is going to arrive till February, and I believe it will involve shipping out Martell or Outlaw along with Raef for a bonafide defensive star sf. Either that, or Portland doesn’t deal at the trade deadline, and allows raef’s contract to expire over the offseason. I don’t think Portland is going to deal Bayless anytime soon, especially since his development period fits right into the timeframe that our championship window opens (2-3 yrs). My problem with dealing raef (even at the trade deadline), is that I’m wondering what spot we could possibly be trying to improve at? We are set at the 2, 4 and hopefully 5. This draft appears to address our longterm solution at the 1. That leaves the 3 as the only position which we don’t have settled. I think that from now till the all star break/trade deadline, the team is going to put Outlaw/Webster on the clock, and once and for all decide which player is going to be the sf of the future (if either one wins). I predict that if either one is shown to be good enough, then the only way we deal Raef is if we get a T-Mac type player, a veteran with ridiculous skills. Otherwise, we stand pat and allow RLEC to expire, and use the salary space to give extensions/raises to the guys on our team that are in our long term future.

I must admit, nearly this same thought crossed my mind the morning following the draft, whether it be for Devin Harris or a different PG we really like. I started thinking “What if Bayless is really just another chip in our trading arsenel?” It sure would take some of the sting of trading away a big time point-guard if you were getting a top-5 draft talent back in return. But in the end, I just don’t think this is the plan for the summer. Now, 40 games into the season, I think this could be a possibility. It all depends on what Bayless, Webster, Outlaw, and Frye do during that time.

Late yesterday, I had another thought. I can’t believe I’m going to bring this up, as I’ve been one of the biggest people saying “quit talking about Chris Paul”. but please, bear with me here. This is the ONE possible scenario where we somehow get Chris Paul next year. the odds are probably 1000 to 1, or worse, but here goes.

Background: New Orleans Hornets owner George Shinn is notoriously cheap. Epic cheap. Donald Serling-esque cheap. A lot of pundits think the Hornets are one good starter away from being a championship contender. So, what do they do? They sell their draft pick for cash. Granted it was a late first rounder, and not likely to net the needed starter. But it’s a piece that could have been packaged with something else to move up or make an offseason trade. Instead, they just give it away.

Now, Chris Paul has to see all this. He has to see that his team is hamstrung by an owner who isn’t willing to spend the extra money to put them over the top. Is this enough for him to come next summer and say “hey, I want out. I’m willing to play out the Q.O. year and leave. That’s summer 2010, I’ll be the consolation prize in the LeBron Capspace Sweekstakes. That puts me in New York with either the Nets or Knicks. I’m gonna get paid, and I’ll be going to a team who is willing to keep paying if we are sniffing the title. So, Mr. Shinn – I’ll work out a Sign and Trade with you to send me to a contender and you can save some face by getting some real talent back.”? Here’s where we come in – we can throw some cheap talented assets at Shinn. And we won’t have to match salaries due to the cap room we’ll have. We can take back a full Max deal in Paul, and send out a package centered around Bayless. Other pieces could include Blake, Outlaw, Sergio, Batum, Koponen, and any of Frye, Diogu, or Webster that were extended this coming summer. Not to mention 1st and 2nd round draft picks.

Now, this scenario is a complete pipe dream. The ONLY reason it’s even conceivable is because of Shinn’s cheapness. Even then, it is highly highly unlikely. A perfect series of events has to happen. The first of those is whether or not Paul signs and extenstion this summer. But interestingly, even if he does, that doesn’t rule this option out. Because it is NOT a free agent play, it’s a trade. Even if he locked up this summer, the trade next summer would essentially be the same. The part he no longer has is the leverage to threaten leaving. That shouldn’t be completely discounted, but I think in the end the driving factor in this possibility is not Paul, it’s Shinn’s cheapness. If they don’t make any on-court progress this year, or regress, then maybe he says “hey, we aren’t going to win, I might as well save a bunch of money”.

Ok, impossible scenario complete. I give myself a Pritch-slap for being the one to post the obligatory “Chris Paul in 2009” thread. Now back to reality…