So many draft reaction posts, and here's another one
by QualityPie on Jun 27, 2008 7:37 PM PDT
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PrintFirst and foremost, I approve. Deeply.
I was calling for a banking of the picks, as you all well know; well, Pritchard turned that #27 and #33 into a bankable Euro, the #36 into THREE future second-rounders, and that 50-something into another future second-rounder. So, except for what he did with #13, yes: HE BANKED THE PICKS.
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Now for my read on the substitutions/replacements, because that's what I view the Pacers trade as: He replaced JJ (and the #13) with Bayless, and replaced McBob with Diogu.
If you look at the trade that way (we didn't add anyone; we just upgraded JJ and replaced one disposable rookie-contract big with another), then it all makes sense: If there simply WAS NO DRAFT AT ALL, we'd've gone into next season with a GAME-1 starting unit of Blake/Roy/MarWeb/LMA/Oden and a backup unit of JJ/Rudy/Trout/Frye/Przy, with Rudy getting a shot at replacing Blake as the season goes along and Trout getting a shot at MarWeb's spot as well; our below-top-tenners would've been McBob, Sergio, and the REC.
What KP did was basically change the scenario not one bit, except upgrade two positions (and adding Batum to our Petter/Freeland Euro stash): He turned JJ into Bayless, who joins (and competes with) Rudy as a prospect to replace Blake as the starting point if he shows enough, and Diogu replaces McBob alongside Sergio and the REC in the realm of not-even-third-unit/insurance/cheering-for-wins/gone-by-tipoff-of-09/10-season.
Or, in other words, Pritchard DIDN'T CHANGE THE TEAM ONE FREAKING BIT. This is a huge point of emphasis, which I can not ram down anyone's throat hard enough. At least for now, no changes, just improvement - and even there, the improvement is in a backup guard (having Rudy play with an American-college Rudy instead of with JJ) and a bench towel-waver.
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Consequence #1: Sergio's place in the post-Rudy world is cemented as below-white-unit. With Rudy and JJ, he'd've been starved for opportunities even as a backup. Well, we ditched JJ, but only for a BETTER guard, and didn't deal Blake as well. Message is simple: No room for Sergio in the big picture. Done, and done. Sorry.
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Consequence #2: While training camp and the early part of the season was earmarked as an opportunity for combo-guard Rudy to replace for-now Blake as the long-term answer as Roy's co-guard, he now will share the backcourt with Bayless - who will be in exactly the same position. How they play together as twin combo guards while being simultaneously assessed for their potential as the long-term answer at the spot of Roy's co-guard . . . that's gonna be an interesting dynamic.
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Consequence #3: Canzano's post-draft blog ended with this nugget:
Also, understand, that the Blazers have a sky-high opinion of Travis Outlaw. They didn't make a single move toward a player who could play his position, even with James Jones opting out of his player option earlier Thursday. Outlaw isn't just going to start the season as the small forward; he'll do it with a huge vote of confidence from management. It's his job to lose. And you'd better believe that Outlaw knows that Pritchard believes in him today.
I know some of you pooh-pooh Canzano's Journalistic credentials, but this has the ring not just of truth to me, but of BEING INFORMED. And while I was ready for Outlaw to begin the season as MarWeb's backup (since MarWeb was the starting 3 last year and Trout was on the white unit) but eventually take that starting spot, this comment about how Trout "isn't just going to start the season as the small forward; he'll do it with a huge vote of confidence from management" just makes sense. Still, Martell makes sense as the other (read: BACKUP) small forward, if only for the start of the season.
Point being, Canzano thinks Trout joined KP, Nate, Roy, Oden, and (maybe) LMA with the most blessed status of all: An immovable part of the long-term Blazers core. I'm inclined to agree - not just that Trout SHOULD have that status (hi, annthefan!), but that he DOES, and that what we did (or more to the point, what we DIDN'T do) on draft day verifies that.
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Consequence #4: Not only is Trout secure alongside (not BEHIND) LMA, but, as per Freeman's post-draft story:
[T]he Blazers ended up with Bayless, who did not work out for them during the predraft process but got a ringing endorsement from Blazers forward Channing Frye, who attended the same high school (St. Mary's of Phoenix) and college as Bayless.
"He is extremely competitive and he is an extremely good talent," Channing Frye told The Oregonian in an e-mail. "I'm happy we have him here and he's gonna make us better, not only on the court, but off."
So who's our backup power forward? Trout is now above that station, and Bayless has deep Frye ties. There is officially a long-term place for Frye on this Blazers team; if he doesn't sign on with an extension this summer, he's a fool. The arrival of Bayless and the impending elevation of Trout is a clear invitation to him to stay, unless a shot at money and a starting job (not a guarantee, mind you - just the CHANCE of it) mean that much more to him. Frye isn't Shawn Marion . . . is he? Watch for a summer extension for Captain KPW. If it doesn't happen, I swear it isn't for the lack of invitation. Take that invitation, Channing. Stay. You'll always be a backup and never make anywhere near $8mil a year, but you will be happy in your one true home, and accumulate rings. Stay. You're wanted.
On the other hand, if that Trout analysis above rings true, what of MarWeb? He doesn't seem to have as obvious a long-term place as Frye does, unless he is as willing as Frye to be a backup making backup money. At the very least, unlike Frye, nothing happened on draft day that elevated Martell's keepability the way Trout's protection and Bayless' acquisition elevated Frye's keepability. We'll see. He may have to show his humility and team commitment, but at least for now, especially with JJ gone, he's the most tradable Blazer outside of the REC.
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the "below-white-unit"
we should start designating players to this new color/unit. “Did you hear that Petteri Kopenen played like crap in summer league? Yeah, looks like he’s headed straight for the brown unit.”
Somebody wrote me during the draft that a guy on a Knicks blog had dubbed Pritchard "The Hamburgler". In this case the appellation seems accurate. Robble-robble. - Dave
Canzano
I really hope Trout is not being hyped to be traded. Don’t listed to Canzano, he is constantly wrong. Even more so than the average sportscribe. The guy didn’t think Hairston was going to get drafted after DX said he had an outside shot at 1st round after an Aaron Brooks like performance at Orlando, just one example of his stupid assumption and sheer hate for the U of O, (did the guy not get accepted or something?) I love Trout staying, but if BandwagonCanzano is the authority on it, it means we can wave goodbye to those sick blocks and awkward but dangerous pull up jumpers.
So, I've been investigating this Outlaw as a starter thing...
I actually asked Canzano himself on his BFT show the other day where he got that nugget from. His on air response was that that was the feeling he was getting from KP and Nate.
Now I know that KP and Nate were adament that Outlaw would be strictly a SF next year, but no evidence as of yet has come forth that Outlaw has been named the starter. That isn’t to say his nearly untouchable status is false, because I believe that KP wants to keep him. But I don’t think he fits as well with the starting unit, and he (Outlaw) didn’t perform so well last year as a starter.
I think Canzano is guessing, and I think he’s wrong.
We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 28, 2008 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Mixed bag.
After some thought, I also think he’s guessing – but I think he’s RIGHT. Eventually.
I see Trout taking Martell’s starting spot sometime during the season, but not by tipoff of game 1.
And I say this for two reasons:
1) Martell improves here-and-there, but has no consistent trajectory of progress; he mixes in
steps of improvement with periods of stagnation. Trout seems to progress more steadily,
at least in the past two seasons or so (he, too, was progress-and-stop for the first few years).
2) Martell’s contract status is a distraction, and if he isn’t extended in the off-season,
as Dave made clear, he’s prime trade bait, if only to avoid becoming a cap hold.
Meanwhile, Trout’s contract status is secure, at least for the next three seasons; he can just play.
Notice, though, that both points can be averted by Martell simply coming through, and doing it before, say, December.
If he shows real consistency, he can totally sew up his starting role. I’m talking about not a presence of breakthrough games,
but an absence of mediocre nights, consistently hitting, say, 12 points, 45% shooting, 8 free throw ATTEMPTS, and 5 assists,
and never going far below those kind of marks, even if he never goes off for 29 points on 11-for-15 either.
Oh yeah: And never having a game where his defense took the night off.
For the second point, if Martell agrees to an extension during the off-season, his whole prospects change dramatically.
If that happens, he comes off of the top of list of tradable players (he’d still be on the list, just not in the JJ top spot),
and there’d be a security and confidence from, and toward, him
that we won’t see if his long-term status is unresolved by Hallowe’en.
So watch Martell for a signing and consistent play early on; see those two things,
and he’ll have the starting spot locked up, Trout or not.
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
It's a toss-up
I think martell NEEDS the starting job. We all know he needs confidence more than Trout. When he strings some plays together he can get going. I don’t want to call him streaky because it seems its more of a mental thing with him (if you know who Chuck Knoblauch is, thats who martell reminds me off). If he can play D all the time like you said I’m sure Nate will start him, because Outlaw is so versatile he can be used at the 3, 4 or even 2. I see Oden getting a lot of quick fouls and us sliding to LMA, Trout, Webster, Roy, Blake.
Yes
Last year showed us Travis was more comfortable as a backup and Martell was a better starter. Marty played some pretty good D, in fact he was the one that primarily guarded Kobe that one game, he did a pretty good job. The thing with him is that if he isn’t getting shots or if he misses a few he loses confidence and mental focus. We can live with that at 21 but if he doesn’t cut it out this season I think we should trade him. His head is probably still messed up from remains of the Jail Blazer era.
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
Trout spent WAY more time in that era.
Two more years of it, in fact.
He got here the year before Qyntel did.
He played with Sheed and Bonzi; Martell did not.
Przybilla, too.
Those two, Trout and Przy, have seen all the bad and good, the whole post-Pippen era.
What they have learned, and the depths of their gratitude for deliverance,
is a special sort of X-factor those two have in common that the rest of the team can not touch.
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
yeah the 20th post is from 8 hours ago and it is about to be pushed off
Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."
I've never seen one real sign...
...that Nate is part of KP’s immovable core. Just worth noting. Nate’s still got some expectations on his shoulders to meet before the end of his contract, and I have no doubt KP has told him so.
Nate has even said on several occasions
“I might not be around for those championship runs.”
How he handles next year is going to be a test. However I think he is one of the best young coaches in the league and he will improve as the young blazers players improve.
Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."
Rudy at Point?
I keep hearing this, but I dont’ think it makes sense. To me, he’s too big and not that kind of player.
I see him more as an energy guy coming in for Roy and playing a bit of 3, not playing the 1.
Thoughts? I think Dave could definitely do a post on this once the Draft Dust settles.
I agree with your point of looking at it as “What if there was no draft”. We definitely used those picks well, and stashing them was the right thing to do with the second rounders (AGAIN, I compare the team to the Patriots here).
Batum seems interested in coming over this year. Do we have room for him? What about the D-League? I’d love to get the kid some burn, I seem him as a Kevin Martin type (maybe just cuz he’s skinny…)
Actually
He’s more like a T-Prince with more upside than a Kevin Martin.
And all indications point to him coming over this season. I’m sure KP and Nate will be frank with the kind of playing time he will receive.
Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."
I think he meant
Rudy and Roy would play together, but Roy would slide over to the 1.
I’m torn on whether I want Batum over here or not. I’d love to have him spend time with our coaches so they can work on molding him into the player we want. But if he’s just gonna ride the pine or play in the D-League, I’d rather have him in France. I’m no expert but I’d guess the competition over there is superior to the D-League.
I agree with Rudy playing a little 3 in the three gaurd system as well. It’ll be a lot of fun watching Bayless, Roy and Rudy running the court and slicing through defenses together.
For Blazer fans who go lusting,
A new point guard is that sexy girl.
Trade Machine's their pornography,
For one they'll give away the world.
-T Darkstar
The othe thing to consider is contracts
In one of his radio interviews today, KP said it was up to Batum if he wants to come over. But he was very clear about wanting to keep a roster spot open so they can search for a diamond in the rough during training camp, ie: Ime.
The other problem is that if we don’t bring Koponen over he’ll probably sign long-term somewhere in Europe. So if Koponen does make a big impression in Summer-League we’d probably be more likely to bring him over and therefore it’d be less likely that Batum would come over so we can keep another roster spot open.
For Blazer fans who go lusting,
A new point guard is that sexy girl.
Trade Machine's their pornography,
For one they'll give away the world.
-T Darkstar
Canzano
I just have to comment on this carpetbagger. I gave up reading his columns since they got me so mad several times. A few of the nicer adjectives for him are pompous, preachy know-it-all. He has tried to get just about every major Oregon college coach fired at one time or another.
I agree with Outlaw
Let’s say Outlaw and Webster both reach their ceiling, if that was to happen, I think Outlaw would be the one who benefits us more. He’s got far more potential on Defense, with his length and quickness. He can get his shot off over anybody in the league.
Webster on the other hand, I just don’t think he’ll ever be a great defender. He just doesn’t have the quickness in his feet. I hope whatever trades we make in the future, do not include Outlaw. He’s on a great contract and I think he’ll reach a level that Webster will fail to make in Portland.
Just to throw out there because I am annoying
Outlaw has great length, but is extremely slow laterally and very slow to react. He’ll always block shots weak-side, but he will also always be a bad defender (most likely) against quicker opponents (which most will be) because his feet are stuck in mud when trying to go left or right.
Maybe he could become a better defender, and I’d be happy if he’d only learn when and where to rotate correctly on defense, and if he’d keep his eye on his defender.
Webster is quicker laterally and uses his body on defense. I don’t think it is hyperbole to say that while Webster isn’t all-defense, he is light years ahead of Outlaw in man defense and knowing where to be—and he’s only 21. He’s also a faster sprinter than Outlaw.
Travis also has the same asthma I have and it will possibly prevent him from ever playing more than 30 mins a night. It sucks, even when in perfect shape.
Based on this, I’ll take the younger player with a more all-round game any day of the week. Martell can’t create his own shot like Travis, but he can get better at it and the rest of his game is more starter-worthy. I don’t wanna trade either of them, and I’ll understand if we move Martell because of the contract situation, but I gotta point out we have seen nothing that could make us believe Travis will ever be anything but a gaping hole on defense.
I love the kid, don’t wanna trade him. LOVE HIM as a scorer off the bench. My teeth itch when I consider him playing with the starters, since he doesn’t pass and can’t defend anyone at the SF spot. He is great on offense, but we need the other stuff more with the starters. Keep his role the way it is until he shows he can do more, and as he is entering his 6th season, I expect what he does well will get better and what he does REALLY, REALLY badly won’t become that great.
Mortimer
I agree with you
I don’t see Outlaw being able to average 35 minutes a night due to his asthma.
I think maybe it will be 24 and 24 with Webster taking the 1st and 3rd quarters and Travis the 2nd and 4th just like it was with JJ33 and Martell last year.
If Outlaw is willing to be paid 5mil a year
He’s a steal. Getting him for 3 was a great move.
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
He's sewn up for $4 mil each of the next three years.
4-year extension was done last off-season.
(The last two years have occasionally been rumored to be team options, but nobody’s buying that,
and even if that WAS true, those option years would be picked up real easy.)
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
That's what I'm thinking too
I don’t ever see him as a starter.
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
Trout's workin' on his lateral quickness...
...on the banks of Chinchahoma Creek, in The “Mississippi Mud”.
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree BUT
Most great defenses are not predicated on having great one on one defenders, it’s about having a great team defense with solid concepts and good rotations. Outlaw actually plays good team defense, but occasionally still gets lost and misses an assignment.
Case in point, this years Celtics. Garnett isn’t a great one on one defender, but he’s got a great sense of whats going on, on the court and is a GREAT team defender.
Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game
It's all about competition.
If you listen to KP long enough, you know exactly why some of the moves are being made. With a young team already, KP could have just said alright, we’ll bring in some veteran role players and let the young guys mature. Instead, like KP always does, brought in more talent to compete with the existing talent on the team. He wants the young guys to compete and fight for playing time. It makes the team stronger since everyone is trying to get better, especially as young players. I think this is one of the reasons why Blake was resigned and Fyre was another young prospect to challenge Lamarcus.
Outlaw will not be handed the job. Nate will give the starting job to those who earn it during training camp. Remember Jack was the starter the first 3 games, not Blake. Rudy can’t rest on his reputation from Spain, Bayless will be right there with him. Blake will have to continue to improve his game with young PGs on the team. If Batum is brought to camp, you better believe he is competing with Outlaw and Webster. This is why it’s so genius. KP and Nate have brought together an exceptionally young and talented group. Adding Bayless, Rudy, and Batum doesn’t just add talent, but also pushes the existing talent on the team to improve. The players who work hard and demonstrate a commitment to get better will push their way to the top of the rotation.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
There is one more blockbuster trade to be made for the Blazers
perhaps it won’t happen until near the trade deadline. It will be at least a 3 for 1, possibly a 4 for 1 and future picks. It might even take 3 to 4 teams to get it done.
I have one player in mind and if that player does become available, even if we have to overpay for him we will be officially set. If we can’t get him I say we stay pat with what we have and let the cake bake another year as planned and then put the frosting on next year if needed.
I'm a little confused by your tactics
by oderiferous emanations 74 on Jun 28, 2008 1:28 AM PDT reply actions
indeed
I'm a little confused by your tactics
by oderiferous emanations 74 on Jun 28, 2008 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
I still think it would be wrong
to start Outlaw! Sure he’s currently better than Webman but Webman is the better fit for the starting unit. Plus Trout is needed on the white unit for his scoring. We can’t expect Rudy, Bayless/Blake, and Frye to be consistent. Plus with Outlaw starting, I would expect to see alot of doudle teams on Oden and Aldridge with Travis’ man cheating.
Does anyone else want to see KP re-sign James Jones? We still NEED his 3pt shooting and experience. And at $3.5 mill for 3/4 years, I’d say that that would be a good deal. If Batum goes back to Europe for a season or two then we’re going to need JJ real bad. I would rather see Batum go back to France for a year and then re-sign JJ.
WE NEED SHOOTING!
We won 13 games because James Jones
Not just because of him but Nate’s offense needs someone who can knock down that three and Jones was leading the NBA and we couldn’t lose. Yes, I want him back. It’s not bloody likely that he will re-sign with us but I wish he would. Minutes here, with Web and Outlaw are at a premium but that was the case last year and Jones got tons of minutes when he was healthy. Not just because of the long ball either, his whole steady game was a huge asset on the court.
by Blazersaurus on Jun 28, 2008 6:18 AM PDT up reply actions
The Guard Issue
Don’t forget that Rudy/Bayless can knock down threes – which takes some of the pain away from Jones. And both can get their shots.
Having said that, I have one slightly different take on the guard spot. Initially, KP and Mac do not call Bayless a combo guard, they call him a Point Guard. He started at Az at point, and was moved to the SG position because injuries at SG forced Az to start their 2nd PG at point and move Bayless to SG because he was their best offensive player as well. Bayless, in sum, played “out of position” to accomodate the team. And that is the only reason anyone calls him a combo guard. If he’d stayed permanently at point, and not been asked to accomodate a 2nd point guard, his assist totals would’ve been up in the six or so range – and no one would be calling him a combo guard. KP and Mac know this. That’s why they state that he was the 2nd best point guard in the draft (again, they do not say combo guard). In terms of Fernandez, KP and Mac have “never” called him a point guard. They call him a shooting guard who can take some minutes at point – different emphasis – given Mac is known for liking a 3 guard rotation.
My take is pretty simple. Bayless is the PG of the future in Portland’s plans. Eventually, he’ll start with Roy, and Fernandez will be the third guard in the rotation. Blake will be the 4 guard. Both Bayless and Fernandez can knock it down from outside, mid-range or go to the rim. And that’s one reason you won’t see Jones re-signed.
And if you listen to KP, you don’t get any hint that he intends to make any further major changes this summer. That’ll happen before February after he and Mac see the team play for another 40-50 games. After all, you just got someone you believe is an elite player who was the 4th best player in this entire draft at guard as well as added Ferandez. All that’s left is SF. If Webster/Outlaw, can’t own the SF spot by early spring, (or if Bayless/Fernandez aren’t panning out at Guard) then KP will make a move with the cap space, 4#2’s, and players. But, it’s premature to make any other major move until you let this team play together awhile. That’s my take.
Nate and KP
often refer to players who can play multiple positions this way “he’s a 4-3”, meaning “a power forward who can also play small forward”. Using that vanacular, I’d say our team is like this:
Bayless: 1-2
Roy: 2-1-3
Rudy: 2-3-1
Blake: 1
Sergio: 1
Outlaw: 3-4
Webster: 3-2
LMA: 4-5
Frye: 4-5
Oden: 5
Pryz: 5
Diogu: 4
Raef: 5-4
Because our guards are so versatile, it really changes the equation though. And you hear KP say this a lot lately too. He says the NBA is changing to be less about PG/SG and more about putting 2 guards out there who can do stuff together. so, Blake is by all rights a PG, but in our half-court sets, he plays off the ball like a 2-guard ready to catch and shoot. Bayless is pretty much in the same mold, only he brings a much better ability to create off the dribble and get to the line as well. Both guys will defend the other points while on the court. Roy and Rudy can both (now for Roy, in a year or so for Rudy) play 3 different positions. We have a ton of lineup possibilities in the backcourt:
Bayless/Roy
Roy/Rudy
Blake/Roy
Blake/Rudy
Bayless/Rudy
Bayless/Roy/Rudy
Blake/Roy/Rudy
I agree that Bayless/Roy is probably our starting lineup, with Rudy as the 6th man who plays 30-35 a night in a 3-guard rotation
A "Red" Unit?
I chose Red for Burn. A fast-break, change of pace, run and gun, take advantage of a short handed or slower unit type of lineup:
1- Sergio
2- Bayless
3- Rudy/Outlaw
4- Outlaw/Frye/LMA
5-Frye/LMA/GO
A 3 guard sprint unit with Sergio, Bayless and Rudy would be exciting and explosive. Defense would suffer and our halfcourt offense might rely too heavily on Rudy and Bayless creating their own shots, but man….it would be fun to watch.
And how about the opposite: A big unit for intimidation, rebounding and defensive stops:
Point guard – Roy
Shooting guard – Trout or MarWeb
Small forward – LaMardridge
Power forward – Przy
Center – Oden
I’d like to see this line-up for a three possession stretch in each of about six to eight games next season.
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
wouldn't our opponent just camp in the paint?
And force us to take jumpshots? Would one of our bigs get broken down on the perimeter though? It seems like small ball is much more prevalent than big-ball.
by WarEaglePDX on Jun 29, 2008 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Kobe stopper
I don’t understand why people ditch on Outlaw so much about his abilities to defend. I remember him shutting down Kobe the entire 4th quarter last year- in the game where the little whiner slapped the ball inTravis’ face. Anybody else remember that??
As already stated, there will be a lot of competition for starting spots (as there should be). However, I suspect that neither Travis or Martell have come anywhere near close to their ceilings. The only player that has come close to that is IMO is Blake. Luckily, he’s consistant, and does great job next to Roy.
"It's amazing what a group of guys can accomplish when no one cares who gets credit."
President Harry S. Truman
Yeah. Good point.
And that was late in the season, which buttresses a key advantage of Trout:
He’s still improving, steadily and consistently, even after five NBA seasons.
This is what allows for the strong probability of Trout’s defensive shortcomings (current or outdated)
to be not long for this world – based on his improvement record, we can expect his weaknesses to be corrected.
Martell’s progress, while undeniable, has not been as consistent; I’d allow much greater chance
for stagnation (occasional OR permanent) with Martell than I would with Trout.
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
Consequence #1: Sergio’s place in the post-Rudy world is cemented as below-white-unit. With Rudy and JJ, he’d’ve been starved for opportunities even as a backup. Well, we ditched JJ, but only for a BETTER guard, and didn’t deal Blake as well. Message is simple: No room for Sergio in the big picture. Done, and done. Sorry.
Hey genius, Blake is the one without a contract from us next year. Remember that cap space we’ve worked so hard to get? We can’t sign him again and still have it. He’s the odd man out. Sergio however, is still on his very attractive rookie contract, and is a lot of the reason Rudy decided to leave a lot of money in Europe to come join us. He’ll be here longer than Blake… done and done.
Blake's got a team option.
And yes, Sergio will be here next year, as will Blake (the option years are for 09-10 and 10-11);
they are both under contract for the 08-09 season, and will both be on the roster.
But Blake will be one of the top four guards (the others being Roy, Rudy and Bayless);
as the fifth-best guard, Sergio will not have a secure role next season and Blake will.
That’s all I’m saying.
And what to do with Sergio’s final rookie option year (09-10, a season which is not guaranteed for Blake)
if he doesn’t crack the two-squad rotation next season, is a fantastic question which I cannot, and will not try to, answer.
But if you think we’ll decline Blake’s option and make room for Sergio based on what we’ve seen from them both
AND the opportunities Sergio will get to show his worth as Guard #5 next season, go ahead and try to make that case.
You haven’t.
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
lol
1. I’m pretty sure Blake signed a 2 year contract with a team option for year 3.
2. Even if we resigned Steve Blake he is not going to eat up our cap room.
If you are going to write in that tone you should at least know what you are talking about. Secondly, although I’m sure Rudy is glad to know someone on the TV, not having Sergio around is not a deal breaker. Rudy wants to play in the US because of the level of competition and because the coaching staff has made it clear that we want him here.
Oh and Sergio can’t shoot, doesn’t play defense, and is not very proficient running the half court offense. Steve Blake can do all those things, while providing leadership, and without going to Europe in the off season and pouting about not getting playing time. I would be extremely surprised if we keep him over Blake.
Edit: I need to finish these posts before someone interjects dangit QP.
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
Oh and Sergio can’t shoot, doesn’t play defense, and is not very proficient running the half court offense. Steve Blake can do all those things, while providing leadership, and without going to Europe in the off season and pouting about not getting playing time. I would be extremely surprised if we keep him over Blake.You have poor comprehension, and clearly haven’t looked into these matters of which you speak.
S-Rod allows 2 less points of production per 48 than Blake
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708POR.HTM
S-Rod also makes 3/4 of a steal more per 48 than Blake (This is a huge difference to people that pay attention)
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=nbasteals&qual=true&sort=stls&league=nba&split=0&season=2008&seasontype=2&avg=48&pos=all
S-Rod also averages over an assist more per 48, and that’s playing with the lesser shooters. Does anyone remember 2 years ago when S-Rod got to play with Roy and Aldridge? He was putting up other-worldly numbers (Literally Best A/48 Ever).
Being familiar with Rudy Fernandez is also going to matter a year from now, when Blake’s not even signed anyway. Do I want to waste being able to sign a max contract FA so I can keep Blake? I think pretty much every agrees Blake isn’t worth that.
People need to objectively rate these guys. If Blake hadn’t hit his abnormally large percentage of 3’s, this would be the easiest call ever. Does anyone remember when S-Rod lit up Blake when he played for the Nuggets? I do. 23 points, 10 assists, 3 steals, 4 rebounds. Not to mention S-Rod is going to get better while Blake is on the wrong side of 28.
Next year Sergio Rodriguez should take over the behind Bayless as the backup option at PG, that is unless we sign or trade for someone better than both of these guys. Blake however has no place on this team in 2 years. Business is business.
Look at oncourt/ofcourt +/- or adjusted +/- numbers
The Blazers do better defensively when Blake is playing than when Sergio plays. They also do much, MUCH better on offense when Blake is playing rather than Sergio. Sure Sergio gets assists at a slightly higher rate than Blake, but he has terrible shooting percentages and turns the ball over much more often. On defense, you can’t rely too much on steals or opponent PER to tell how good a defender is, because players often get lots of steals by gambling and allowing easy baskets, and because part of the reason why Sergio is a major defensive liability is not that his own man blows by him, but that he he doesn’t rotate correctly and gives other players on the opposing team easy baskets. You also have to consider that Segio is usually playing against backups while Blake usually plays against starters.
Sergio is by far the worst out of all Blazers who played significant minutes last year regardless of whether you measure by PER, raw +/, adjusted +/, or just about any other statistical method. Given that the numbers all say that replacing Blake with Sergio would cost us at least 10 points per 48 minutes, I don’t see any reason to believe that Sergio will move ahead of Blake in the rotation next year.
LOL
Signing Blake does not eliminate our cap room in 2009. He would be signed for like 4+ million we have like 29mil in cap space with the recent trade.
I guess the website you listed also must not pay any attention and have poor comprehension because they list Rodriguez as the 13th best player statistically on the roster.
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708POR.HTM
Secondly Blake is playing point guard on the 2 best 5man units the Blazers have.
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708POR2.HTM
Blake has the best win percentage of any Blazer that actually gets playing time besides Roy and James Jones.
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708POR1.HTM
Let’s go onto some stats on Sergio
8 +/ (Blake has +1.4)
Shooting
65% on Ft’s (76.6% for Blake)
29% on 3s (40.6% for Blake)
35.2 FG% (40.8% for Blake)
True shooting %
51.8% for Blake
42.3% for Sergio (Good for 68th place in all Pgs)
Besides marginally higher stats per 48 or 40 minutes in steals and assists he is completely statistically outclassed by a career backup pg. He’s a scrub. He will be gone unlessh e finds a jump shot. Because he can’t defend worth crap. In fact in his best lineup on the floor the unit was a -16 in plus/minus. If he isn’t a scrub than McBob was an allstar and we just pritchslapped ourselves with that trade.
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
-8 plus/minus
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
Actually, it is a team option for Blake in 09-10 and 10-11.
Set at just over $5mil per year.
No price-guessing, no negotiation, just pick up the option or don’t.
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
Everything being equal
Who were the 2 unquestioned best players on the Blazers roster last year? Its close, its Roy and Aldridge. Of which Sergio played a collected total of less than 20 minutes the entire year with. What do you think your +/- and defensive team totals are going to be? Do you really think its a fair comparison to make, when Blake played nearly all of his minutes with those guys, while Sergio is stuck with freaking Jarrett Jack to his right as a shooting guard no less? All that said, he did give up less points of production, he did average nearly twice as many steals per 48, he did outclass Blake in the assists category, and did so with playing with an unquestionably worse cast around him. He has every right to be mad. Nate McMillan played his two favorites, instead of giving time to the only of one of the three that has real talent. Why? The numbers don’t like, and they’d only get better playing with our better players. Add in Rudy to the mix and the chemistry thing becomes even bigger. With Bayless eventually taking a starting spot (next year most likely), we’re looking for that backup point of the future, and if you’re going to have Rudy in that mix anyway, Sergio should get the first look. Not to mention how much easier that would be on our cap. You and I both know that 29 Million is fairy tail cap space at this point. A 4 Million dollar difference in their salaries will be looked at. This team window starts the year after this one. Blake will be 30 by then, Sergio will be 24. If its possible for Blake all of a sudden to find a 3 point shot, clearly 2 years from now, its not unreasonable to expect the same from S-Rod. Look at fellow Spaniard Jose Calderon. His first year in the league, 2 years ago, he shot 42% from the field and 16% from the 3 point line. What did he do this year? Try 52% from the field and 43% from the 3 point line. And there isn’t a more direct comparison to Sergio that can be made. I think it’d be a huge mistake to let a talent like S-Rod go, to keep a career backup that won’t be in his prime when we’ll be hitting ours.
Sounds Like...
.
..
...SergioFTW
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Really?
Is that how it works around here? I make a case using logic, and you (I’m assuming), compare me to some homer? Fantastic. Sergio Rodriguez is 6 years younger, has chemistry with the players whom the backup PG will have to play with, and is an elite passer and playmaker. He’ll cost much less against the cap, will hit his prime when our team hits its prime, yet you come back with “Sounds Like – SergioFTW”. Well done.
It stands to reason that Sergio’s +/- isn’t as good as Blake’s for obvious reasons. Blake played virtually all his minutes with LMA and Roy, while S-Rod played next to no minutes with those guys. If you’re going to disagree, at least make it clear as to why.
I rest my case
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I see that you’re a retired wrestler. I understand that you may have suffered one or two too many blows to the head to make rational arguments anymore. Its probably better that you leave that whole arguing using logic thing to the rest of us. So sit back and relax. You’ve earned it.
Thanks
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Bucket don't lie...
............................... The rim was the same size when Sergio was on the floor vs. when Roy and LMA were on the floor. And Sergio’s horrific shooting performance came within a few points of establishing the .350 RODRIGUEZ LINE (a la beisbol’s fabled MENDOZA LINE of .200).
The dude is a GUARD, let shoots FREE THROWS at under a 70% clip.
Don’t believe the hype or get lost in two alley-oop passes during garbage time—Sergio is NOT AN NBA PLAYER.
t
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
wow
If you honestly believe Nate is playing “his two favorites” while he has a PG sitting on the bench who is supposedly way better, than I’m guessing you think 9/11 was an inside job too.
Coaches want to win. Period. Nate gains NOTHING by playing Blake and JJ over Sergio. In fact, if Sergio was so much better, he would have been wise to play him and win some more games.
Stats can tell any story you want when you slice them up the way you want to. Especially the ones that “project” per 48 or per 40 number for a guy who play 10. All I need to know I saw whenever Sergio was on the floor. He defended terribly, started his moves on pick and rolls early causing our bigs to pickup fouls, couldn’t hit anything with his pancake-flat jump shot, and looked pretty much lost out there. I’m hoping he comes back refocused this year, and gets a chance to play a bit with a unit that will run much more- which is clearly his best asset.
agreed
Nate liked JJ and Blakes toughness. That’s what he values at the position. Sergio is known to cheat on defense, but he’s also been very successful in turning the steals he gets into points on the other end because of how good he is in transition. I totally agree about the fast break part of what you’re saying. In half court sets Blake is better, but that’s not and shouldn’t be what our backup unit should be about. We’ve got as much talent now, in our 2nd unit as anyone in the NBA. The more possessions we can push, the more points we’ll be able to increase leads by. We’re stocked with guys that are more than capable of running, and I think Sergio would be the best guy out there leading fast breaks back and forth. Bayless/Rudy/Outlaw/Frye would be an excellent group to out run and gun opponents with. GO/LMA/Roy are also more than capable of running up and down the court. This is a general rule of thumb for regular season play, but as I stated earlier, the more possessions you can get into a game, the better chance the more talented team will come away with the win. Its like the theory on how to beat the Patriots last year. You’ve got to slow the game down. Well in basketball, doing that on a daily basis is a lot to try during an 82 game season. We can control pace every step of the way with our crew. Late in games, we’ve got the lock down crew in full effect.
I think he is actually
Sergio Rodriguez. Or maybe just the spirit of his faux hawk.
Either way I don’t really get his blind allegiance to a player that has been completely superceded in the depth chart.
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
I can’t believe you don’t acknowledge any one of the legitimate points I make. If you want to have an actual conversation about it, I’m all for that. The only thing you’re offering to this conversation with quotes like this:
I think he is actually
Sergio Rodriguez. Or maybe just the spirit of his faux hawk.
Either way I don’t really get his blind allegiance to a player that has been completely superceded in the depth chart.If you think its so obvious, that I’m barking up some kind of wrong tree, wouldn’t it be easy to use reason to prove your points?
Your tone is creating the backlash
Your argument is clouded by your abrasive tone. This is not the O-Live forums. Don’t start a response by “Hey genius” or “you have poor comprehension”......just try “I completely disagree.’ You can 100% disagree with the argument with out berating the arguer.
In summation…....stay classy, as11osu.
by WarEaglePDX on Jun 29, 2008 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Hello?
Next year is next year people. Obviously Blake is on this team right now, and James Jones is not. This year we know who’s on the team, next year if we re-up with Blake it costs even more against our cap. C’mon people, try to keep up with the times. Blake doesn’t belong on this team after next year when you consider the fact that we couldn’t use our cap space.
I will wait until this comin' Season starts...
...before considering Blakey’s spot on The PTBs
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow
I can see you not knowing what you are talking about…but to ignore proven facts that you are wrong that’s interesting. Read the post by QP+me above.
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
I responded above
I’m not familiar with this site, and didn’t realize I had to press reply to a specific post.
cap space
right now we are slated to have 25-30 million. Even if we do pickup Blake’s 4.5 million option for 09-10, that will not affect (by itself) our ability to sign a free agent at all. also, consider there really aren’t very many attractive ones out there at need positions for us, so it doesn’t matter. The more likely use of the cap space next summer is taking back a much larger set of contracts than you send out. You don’t need $25 million for that—about $10 or $15 will do nicely.
Maybe we pickup Blake’s option next year, maybe we don’t. but my guess is that decision will have pretty much nothing to do with cap space.
Who Knows
There are still so many different lineups the Blazers might have next year. With the jumps in improvement from last year, it’s hard to gauge who’s going to bring what to the team. I’m sort of confused about the initial point. Isn’t the draft about improving the team? I think that is exactly what KP was trying to do and did. He recognized a weakness with Jack and improved it. He recognized that teams like Boston and S. Antonio with their fast guards and added one. As far as Outlaw starting, who knows? We will have to wait and see who starts. They might have Bayless eventually start and Rudy at SG with Roy at SF. He guards guys like C. Anthony, Kobe and Lebron in crunch time at the SG position. They all handle the ball when needed. Would it really change the results of what Roy does best? Plus looking at Outlaw and Webster coming off the bench together is scary matching up with another team’s bench. Webster would be at his natural position, Outlaw at his and they would still have Pryz, Frye and Blake on that squad. I love what this team will bring next year.
Webster + Outlaw = scary
Agreed.
On the other hand, Rudy + Outlaw + Bayless = scary.
No matter what, we’re gonna have a beast of a starting lineup AND a starting-squad-caliber second unit.
We’re gonna kill ‘em all this year.
I don’t know exactly HOW we will; there are so many ways this could go.
It’s like a Let’s Make A Deal episode where there’s a new car behind every door.
I’m excited.
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
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